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ETH Warning as Bearish Structure Persists Despite Recent Relief Bounce

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ETH Warning as Bearish Structure Persists Despite Recent Relief Bounce

Ethereum remains under broad pressure across higher timeframes, with the price still trading well below its major moving averages and inside a dominant bearish market structure. While the recent rebound from the February lows helped ETH stabilize around $1,900, the charts still suggest that buyers are struggling to reclaim any meaningful resistance, keeping the short-term outlook cautious for now.

Ethereum Price Analysis: The Daily Chart

On the daily chart, ETH continues to trade beneath both the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, which are still sloping downward and confirming that the broader trend remains bearish.

The asset is also respecting the descending structure that has been in place for months, and every recovery attempt so far has failed before reaching a proper trend reversal point. The market is currently hovering just above the key blue support zone around $1,800, which has acted as the main floor after the sharp February selloff.

At the same time, the upside remains capped by clear resistance levels at around $2,400 and then $2,800. Even though ETH managed to bounce from the local lows, the recovery has been weak and lacks strong continuation, which suggests that sellers are still active on rallies.

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As long as the asset stays below the descending resistance and especially below the $2,400 area, the current move looks more like a relief rebound inside a broader downtrend than the start of a sustainable reversal.

ETH/USDT 4-Hour Chart

On the 4-hour chart, ETH recently pushed into the $2,150 resistance region but got rejected quickly, forming a local lower high and confirming that this level remains an important ceiling in the short term. The RSI also printed an overbought signal near that rejection. Since then, the price has drifted back toward the mid-range around $1,950, showing a lack of aggressive buying interest after the failed breakout attempt.

This leaves ETH trapped in a relatively tight short-term range, with $1,800 still acting as the key support and $2,150 as the immediate resistance to reclaim.

A clean break below the lower boundary could open the door for the price to drop even deeper than the February lows, while a recovery above $2,150 would be the first signal that buyers are regaining some control. For now, however, the 4-hour structure still favors consolidation to bearish continuation unless buyers can force a stronger reclaim soon.

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Sentiment Analysis

From a sentiment perspective, the Coinbase Premium Index is still a weak spot for Ethereum. Although the indicator has started to recover from the deeply negative readings seen in February, it remains around the neutral line and has not yet shown the kind of sustained positive premium that would signal strong spot demand from US investors. That suggests institutional and larger US-based buying interest is still tentative rather than decisive.

In other words, sentiment is no longer in outright capitulation territory, but it is also far from bullish confirmation. The improvement in the premium index is mildly constructive and may support the idea of local stabilization, yet it does not currently point to aggressive accumulation. Until this metric pushes firmly into positive territory and stays there, sentiment will likely remain neutral to slightly bearish, in line with the still fragile technical structure.

 

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Crypto World

Kalshi Suffers Court Loss in Ohio over Sports Betting Lawsuit

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Law, CFTC, Court, Kalshi, Prediction Markets

The prediction markets platform argued for an injunction against Ohio authorities, claiming that federal commodities laws superseded state laws on sport event contracts.

An Ohio federal court has denied a motion filed by prediction markets platform Kalshi for a preliminary injunction against Ohio state authorities over allegations that the company was operating in violation of gambling laws.

In an order filed Monday, US District Court for the Southern District of Ohio Chief Judge Sarah Morrison denied Kalshi’s request for an injunction that would have blocked the Ohio Casino Control Commission and state attorney general from regulating contracts on the platform, specifically for sports betting.

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According to the judge, Kalshi had failed to show that the sports event contracts available on the platform were subject to the “exclusive jurisdiction” of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

“Even if this Court were to find that sports-event contracts are swaps subject to the CFTC’s exclusive jurisdiction, Kalshi has not shown that the [Commodity Exchange Act, or CEA] would necessarily preempt Ohio’s sports gambling laws,” said the opinion and order, adding:

“Kalshi argues that Ohio’s sports gambling laws are field and conflict preempted by the CEA when it comes to sports-event contracts traded on its exchange […] Kalshi fails to establish that Congress intended the CEA to preempt state laws on sports gambling.”

Law, CFTC, Court, Kalshi, Prediction Markets
Source: Courtlistener

The denial pushed back against the narrative from CFTC Chair Michael Selig, who said in February that the federal regulator had “exclusive jurisdiction” over prediction markets and threatened lawsuits against any authority claiming otherwise. Kalshi and prediction platforms face lawsuits in other US states over similar allegations involving unlicensed sports betting.

“This Court does not endeavor to explain why the CFTC has not exercised its authority […] with respect to the sports-event contracts,” said the Monday filing in Ohio. “But the agency’s inaction is not proof that the sports-event contracts are regulated by or permissible under the CEA—and the Court has concluded they are not.”

Related: CFTC chair backs blockchain-based prediction markets as ‘truth machines’

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In a statement to Cointelegraph, a Kalshi spokesperson said that the company “respectfully disagree[d] with the Court’s decision, which splits from a decision from a federal court in Tennessee just a few weeks ago, and will promptly seek an appeal.”

CFTC guidance on prediction markets could be looming

Last week, Selig said that the federal regulator was working to provide guidance regarding prediction markets “in the very near future.” The CFTC chair is the sole Senate-confirmed commissioner in a panel normally consisting of five people.

Magazine: The debate over Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is over: Benjamin Cowen

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