Hedera price has declined in recent sessions, forming a descending broadening wedge pattern that typically signals a potential bullish breakout. HBAR trades at $0.0923 at publication, remaining below the $0.0938 resistance level. 

While the technical structure suggests upside potential, Bitcoin’s direction could determine whether that breakout materializes.

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HBAR Holders Are Pulling Back On Selling

The Money Flow Index, or MFI, is forming a bullish divergence against HBAR price action. While HBAR recently posted a lower low, the MFI printed a higher reading. This divergence signals weakening selling pressure beneath the surface.

Bullish divergences often precede reversals in cryptocurrency markets. When momentum indicators improve during price declines, it reflects reduced conviction among sellers. Investors appear to be slowing distribution, which may allow HBAR to stabilize and attempt a rebound.

A confirmed breakout from the descending broadening wedge could trigger forced short liquidations. Liquidation data shows a concentration of short positions near the $0.1012 level. A move above that threshold would likely pressure bearish traders.

The liquidation map indicates most short liquidations sit at up to $0.1012. A rally through that zone could trigger approximately $4.34 million in liquidations. Forced buying from liquidated shorts often accelerates bullish momentum and strengthens breakout structures in volatile altcoins.

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Bitcoin Remains a Problem

Despite improving technical signals, Bitcoin remains the dominant influence. Hedera has shown increasing correlation with BTC over recent months. When Bitcoin declines, HBAR frequently mirrors that weakness regardless of its internal setup.

A brief divergence occurred between June and July 2025, when Bitcoin advanced while HBAR moved sideways. Outside that period, price behavior largely aligned. With correlation now stronger, HBAR could struggle if Bitcoin fails to generate upward momentum.

HBAR Price Breakout On The Cards

HBAR price sits at $0.0923, trading within the descending broadening wedge. Immediate resistance at $0.0938 continues to cap upside attempts. A confirmed breakout requires flipping $0.1005 into support and breaching $0.1071 decisively.

Clearing those levels would strengthen the bullish outlook and open the path toward $0.1300, which represents a recovery of recent losses. However, $0.1071 remains the primary short-term objective before any extended rally becomes sustainable.

Conversely, renewed Bitcoin weakness could invalidate the bullish thesis. Failure to overcome $0.0938 or loss of $0.0855 support would increase downside risk. A drop toward $0.0780 would confirm continued consolidation and delay any breakout scenario.

South Korea’s Gangnam Police Station has confirmed that 22 Bitcoins worth about ₩2.1 billion (roughly USD 1.6 million) were lost from police custody, authorities said on Friday.

The disappearance of the crypto assets, seized during an earlier investigation, was discovered during a nationwide review of virtual asset handling by law enforcement.

Seoul police lose seized Bitcoin, internal probe launched

The incident comes amid growing scrutiny of how police and prosecutors secure digital assets obtained in criminal cases, following a similar loss of 320 Bitcoin (BTC) from the Gwangju District Prosecutors’ Office last year.

Police said the 22 Bitcoin in question were voluntarily surrendered by suspects during a 2021 investigation and have been held in custody since then. During a recent internal check triggered by the Gwangju incident, investigators discovered the coins had been transferred out of the storage wallet without authorization.

Interestingly, the physical cold wallet, a USB-style device meant to securely store the private keys, was still in Gangnam Police’s possession, but the Bitcoins themselves were gone. This suggests the digital keys were accessed and the assets moved without leaving obvious signs of theft of the hardware itself.

The Gyeonggi Northern Provincial Police Agency has launched a formal internal investigation to determine exactly how the coins were transferred out and whether any personnel were involved.

So far, police have not publicly accused staff of criminal involvement, but officials said they are examining internal access logs, wallet key management procedures and any evidence of unauthorized digital transfers.

Authorities have not said whether any of the missing Bitcoin have been recovered or traced to external wallets, but investigators are reportedly reviewing blockchain transaction records.

The end of another week has arrived, which means another batch of crypto options contracts is expiring while spot markets continue to decline.

Around 38,000 Bitcoin options contracts will expire on Friday, Feb. 13, with a notional value of roughly $2.5 billion. This event is a little larger than last week’s expiry.

Crypto markets remain in bear market territory, losing around $125 billion since the start of the week, as sentiment plunges and the retail and institutional exodus continues.

Bitcoin Options Expiry

This week’s batch of Bitcoin options contracts has a put/call ratio of 0.76, meaning that there are more expiring calls (longs) than puts (shorts). Max pain is around $75,000, according to Coinglass, which is above current spot prices, so many will be out of the money on expiry.

Open interest (OI), or the value or number of Bitcoin options contracts yet to expire, remains highest at $60,000 and is now mounting up at $50,000, which has over $1 billion at these strike prices on Deribit as bearish bets increase. Total BTC options OI across all exchanges has been climbing this month and is at $36.6 billion.

Derivatives analyst ‘Laevitas’ said there was a “bear put spread” on Deribit, which involves buying a higher strike put and selling a lower strike put with the same expiry.

“With BTC stabilizing and volume cooling from panic levels, the key question is whether expiry acts as a magnet toward $75K or clears the way for the next directional move,” stated Deribit.

🚨 Options Expiry Alert 🚨

At 08:00 UTC tomorrow, over $2.9B in crypto options expire on Deribit.$BTC: $2.53B notional | Put/Call: 0.76 | Max Pain: $75K$ETH: $406M notional | Put/Call: 0.89 | Max Pain: $2,150

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After last week’s break below $70K triggered liquidations and… pic.twitter.com/ZH2dgNglrC

— Deribit (@DeribitOfficial) February 12, 2026

“Put options continue to dominate the market, with over $1 billion in BTC put options traded today, accounting for 37% of the total volume,” commented Greeks Live this week, which added that the majority of these are “out-of-the-money options priced between $60,000 and $65,000.”

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“This indicates that institutions hold a negative outlook on the medium-to-long-term market trajectory, with a strong expectation of a bearish trend within the next one to two months.”

In addition to today’s batch of Bitcoin options, around 217,000 Ethereum contracts are also expiring, with a notional value of $406 million, max pain at $2,150, and a put/call ratio of 0.89. Total ETH options OI across all exchanges is around $7 billion. This brings the total notional value of crypto options expiries to around $2.9 billion.

Spot Market Outlook

Total market capitalization is down another 1.5% on the day at $2.34 trillion as the sell-off continues. Bitcoin is weakening again, falling to just above $65,000 in late trading on Thursday and trading just above $66,000 during Friday morning’s Asian session.

Analysts are mostly bearish, with many predicting a bottom near or below its realized price of $55,000. Ether remains weak below $2,000, hitting $1,900 in an intraday low. Continued weakness for BTC will drag ETH even further down over the coming weeks.

Bitcoin (BTC) has extended its downward trajectory. Over the past 24 hours, the asset has declined 1.39%, pushing its total losses for the month beyond 30%.

While the broader bear market environment remains the primary driver of weakness, emerging on-chain signals suggest that concentrated whale activity could reportedly be amplifying BTC’s downside. 

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Whale Activity Raises Concerns Over Short-Term Bitcoin Volatility 

In a post on X (formerly Twitter), blockchain analytics firm Lookonchain reported that a whale’s (3NVeXm) deposits have coincided with Bitcoin’s price drops. Data from Arkham showed that the whale started depositing Bitcoin to Binance three weeks ago, starting out with modest amounts. 

However, activity accelerated this week. On February 11, the whale transferred 5,000 BTC into the exchange. The string of transfers has continued with the wallet sending another 2,800 coins just today.

Lookonchain suggested that the timing of these deposits may have influenced short-term price action.

“Every time he deposits BTC, the price drops. Yesterday, I warned when he made a deposit — and soon after, BTC dropped over 3%,” the post read.

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As of the latest available data, the address still holds 166.5 BTC, valued at over $11 million at current market prices. Large exchange inflows are often interpreted as a precursor to selling, as investors typically move assets to trading platforms to liquidate or hedge positions. 

While correlation does not necessarily imply causation, the scale and timing of these transfers could have increased immediate sell-side pressure in an already fragile market structure. In periods of heightened sensitivity, even the perception of whale-driven selling can amplify downside moves as traders react to on-chain signals and adjust positions accordingly.

Capitulation Signals Point to Market Stress 

The transfers come at a time of pronounced weakness across the Bitcoin market. An analyst noted that Bitcoin’s realized losses surged to $2.3 billion.

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“This puts us in the top 3-5 loss events ever recorded. Only a handful of moments in Bitcoin’s history have seen this level of capitulation,” the analysis read.

The analyst added that short-term holders, defined as those holding coins for less than 155 days, appear to be driving much of the current capitulation. Investors who accumulated BTC at $80,000-$110,000 are now locking in significant losses, suggesting that overleveraged retail participants and weaker hands are exiting their positions.

In contrast, long-term holders do not appear to be the primary source of this latest wave of selling. Historically, this cohort tends to hold through drawdowns.

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“In the past, extreme loss spikes like this triggered rebounds. We’re seeing it now: BTC bounced from $60K to $71K after the capitulation. But this could still be the beginning of a deep and slow bleed-out. Relief rallies happen even in prolonged bear markets,” the analyst stated.

Meanwhile, BeInCrypto previously highlighted several signals suggesting that BTC may still be in the early stages of a broader bear cycle, leaving room for further downside risk. CryptoQuant analysts have pointed to the $55,000 level as Bitcoin’s realized price, a level historically associated with bear market bottoms. 

In previous cycles, BTC traded 24% to 30% below its realized price before stabilizing. Currently, Bitcoin remains above that level.

When BTC approaches its realized price zone, it has historically entered a period of sideways consolidation before staging a recovery. Some analysts argue that a deeper correction toward the sub-$40,000 range could mark a more definitive bottom formation.

HONG KONG — Crypto finding a new niche as the payments tool of choice for machines, bitcoin BTC$66,560.23 not yet at rock bottom, U.S. regulatory changes and the role of prediction markets were some of the topics discussed at CoinDesk’s Consensus Hong Kong conference this week.

“As AI agents become capable of making and executing decisions independently, we may begin to see the early forms of what some call the machine economy, where AI agents can hold and transfer digital assets, pay for services and transact with one another onchain,” said Hong Kong Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo-po.

These tools may be used to automatically book hotels and flights or make other purchases, Binance CEO Richard Teng said during a fireside chat on Thursday.

“If you think about the agentic AI, so the booking of hotels, flights, whatever purchases that you would make, how you think that those purchases will be made — it’ll be via crypto and stablecoins,” he said. “So, crypto is the currency for AI, if you think about it, and that’s how it’s going to pan out.”

Other participants discussed market volatility. Bitcoin has already fallen nearly $30,000 in a month, and some industry viewers fear it may drop further before hitting a bottom. Market participants are looking at $50,000 as one level to watch, several individuals told CoinDesk.

Similarly, the sentiment around betting markets is starting to turn negative. Traders said they were concerned the platforms might suck out liquidity from “productive sectors,” and in turn cause a “negative wealth effect.”

On the regulatory front, though Hong Kong’s policymakers’ announcements took center stage, industry participants told CoinDesk they were closely watching U.S. lawmakers and the negotiations around crypto market structure legislation.

One person said the U.S. market is large enough that it has outsize influence on other locales, and so some regulators are waiting to see how the U.S. lands before taking on policymaking in crypto.

Hong Kong does not appear to be one of these jurisdictions. The Securities and Futures Commission is moving ahead with various proposals to bring crypto companies further into the regulatory sphere.

A U.S. federal court has sentenced the chief executive of a crypto trading and multi-level marketing firm to 20 years in prison for orchestrating a massive Bitcoin-based Ponzi scheme that defrauded tens of thousands of investors worldwide.

Bitcoin Ponzi scheme CEO sentenced to 20 years

Ramil Ventura Palafox, 61, former CEO and Chairman of Praetorian Group International (PGI), received the sentence Thursday after being convicted on multiple federal charges, including wire fraud and money laundering.

According to court documents, Palafox used PGI to lure more than 90,000 investors into a purported Bitcoin (BTC) trading program that promised daily returns of 0.5% to 3%.

Prosecutors said the program never engaged in genuine trading, instead, returns were paid with funds from new investors, a classic Bitcoin Ponzi scheme.

Victims from around the world collectively invested more than $200 million, with documented losses exceeding tens of millions for many individuals.

Government filings show Palafox made lavish personal purchases with investor money, which reportedly included luxury cars, high-end designer goods and real estate. Earlier reports in the case revealed that millions flowed into personal expenses rather than investment activity, exacerbating investors’ losses.

“He spent approximately $3 million on 20 luxury vehicles, including automobiles by Porsche, Lamborghini, McClaren, Ferrari, BMW, Bentley, and others. Palafox spent approximately $329,000 on penthouse suites at a luxury hotel chain and purchased four homes in Las Vegas and Los Angeles worth more than $6 million. Palafox spent another $3 million of investors’ money to buy clothing, watches, jewelry, and home furnishings at luxury retailers, including Louboutin, Neiman Marcus, Gucci, Versace, Ferragamo, Valentino, Cartier, Rolex, and Hermes, among others,” the DoJ statement said.

Palafox initially pleaded guilty in September 2025 to fraud and money laundering charges, acknowledging his role in the Bitcoin Ponzi scheme that operated between December 2019 and October 2021.

The FBI’s Washington Field Office and IRS Criminal Investigation Division assisted in the case, and some victims have already been granted restitution orders. Efforts continue to track down remaining assets to repay those defrauded.

TLDR:

• Thailand SEC authorizes Bitcoin and digital assets as underlyings for futures and options trading
• New rules follow cabinet approval of amendments to the country’s long-standing Derivatives Act
• Trading will occur only through licensed operators on the Thailand Futures Exchange platform
• Spot crypto trading stays regulated, while payments using digital assets remain restricted

Thailand’s Securities and Exchange Commission has approved the use of Bitcoin and other digital assets in regulated derivatives markets.

Futures and options tied to crypto will trade on the Thailand Futures Exchange under licensed supervision. The move expands investor access while keeping activity inside formal rules. Spot trading remains limited to approved exchanges, and payment restrictions stay in place.

Crypto Assets Enter Thailand’s Derivatives Market

Under the revised Derivatives Act, digital assets may serve as underlying assets for futures, options, and related contracts. Bitcoin was listed among eligible instruments, alongside carbon credits and other approved assets. Trading will occur on the Thailand Futures Exchange.

The SEC stated that derivatives tied to crypto will follow the same oversight standards as traditional contracts. Operators must obtain licenses and meet reporting and compliance requirements. These controls aim to keep trading orderly and transparent.

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Thailand has regulated crypto markets since 2018. Spot trading remains allowed only through licensed exchanges. At the same time, authorities continue to prohibit the use of cryptocurrencies as everyday payment tools.

SEC Secretary-General Pornanong Budsaratragoon said the update expands investment choices and supports risk diversification. Investors can now access digital asset exposure through familiar financial products rather than direct holdings.

Framework Expands While Supervision Continues

The development gained attention on social media after Vivek Sen posted on X that Thailand was easing crypto trading rules. His post drew market interest and reflected the broader response from the crypto community.

Regulators clarified that the new structure builds on existing laws, not a full policy shift. The focus remains on controlled growth within regulated venues. Derivatives allow participation while exchanges maintain custody and compliance standards.

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The SEC also plans additional rules for operator licensing and supervision updates. Future steps may include crypto exchange-traded funds and tokenization initiatives. No timelines were provided for those measures.

Trading and settlement will follow established exchange procedures. Digital assets will function as approved underlyings rather than separate markets. Authorities said implementation will occur gradually to ensure stability.

Through these measures, Thailand expands access to crypto-based products while maintaining strict regulatory control.

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