Hedera’s native token, HBAR, is attempting to regain lost ground after weeks of constrained trading. The price recently approached the $0.10 threshold but failed to secure a decisive breakout. Since the beginning of the month, resistance near this level has limited upward progress.

While HBAR briefly reclaimed $0.10, momentum stalled just below a key technical barrier. Traders have adjusted their positioning, though not decisively in favor of sustained upside. 

HBAR Holders Are Buying

The Money Flow Index, or MFI, indicates that buying pressure is gradually building on HBAR. This volume-weighted momentum indicator measures capital inflows and outflows based on both price and trading volume. Currently, the MFI is positioned above the neutral 50 mark, signaling that buyers are regaining influence.

An MFI reading in positive territory suggests accumulation may be underway. Rising inflows often precede price appreciation, especially when supported by higher trading activity. If this trend continues, HBAR could benefit from sustained accumulation, strengthening the case for a recovery attempt above immediate resistance levels.

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Hedera Traders Remain Skeptical

Broader derivatives data offer a mixed but slightly constructive outlook. HBAR’s funding rate is currently skewed toward long positions, indicating that traders are willing to pay a premium to hold bullish contracts. Positive funding rates typically reflect expectations of upward price movement.

However, volatility in the funding rate over the past two weeks highlights lingering uncertainty. Between February 6 and February 11, short contracts dominated open interest, placing downward pressure on HBAR. This dominance quickly reversed, turned positive, and then shifted negative again.

Such fluctuations reveal hesitation among leveraged traders. Although short dominance has declined recently, conviction remains fragile. Stable positive funding would strengthen the bullish thesis, but current data suggests sentiment is still reactive to short-term price swings rather than anchored in long-term confidence.

HBAR Price Aims High

HBAR is trading at $0.0992 at the time of writing. The token remains above the $0.0961 support level, which aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Holding this level is technically significant, as it represents a key inflection point for trend continuation.

However, resistance at $0.1035, at the 50% Fibonacci retracement, is capping upward movement and limiting breakout attempts.

A decisive move above $0.1035 would signal a short-term structural shift. Turning this resistance into support could attract fresh demand, particularly if buying pressure continues to rise. 

The next target would stand at $0.1109, corresponding to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. This level is widely monitored by traders and often acts as a strong support zone once reclaimed.

However, if bullish indicators fail to strengthen, consolidation may persist near current levels. Continued outflows would weaken breakout attempts and reinforce resistance at $0.1035.

A breakdown below the $0.0961 support would shift the short-term structure bearish. In that scenario, HBAR could decline toward $0.0870, invalidating the immediate recovery outlook and restoring stronger control to sellers.

A US federal judge in Tennessee temporarily blocked the state from enforcing its gambling laws against prediction markets operator Kalshi’s sports event contracts. 

The ruling, issued by Judge Aleta Trauger of the US District Court for the Middle District of Tennessee on Thursday, allows Kalshi to continue offering sports-related event contracts to users in the state while its lawsuit against Tennessee regulators proceeds.

Trauger found that Kalshi is likely to succeed on the merits of its claim that federal commodities law preempts Tennessee’s attempt to regulate its sports markets as illegal gambling. 

The court concluded that Kalshi’s sports event contracts are “swaps” under the Commodity Exchange Act, over which the law grants the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) exclusive jurisdiction, and held that Tennessee’s enforcement efforts are likely preempted under conflict preemption principles. 

The injunction applies to the identified state officials, while the Tennessee Sports Wagering Council itself was dismissed on sovereign immunity grounds, and Kalshi was ordered to post a $500,000 bond.

Long-running clash with states

The Tennessee case marks another chapter in a broader clash over how to treat event contracts in the United States.

An earlier temporary restraining order from Trauger had already paused enforcement of Tennessee’s cease-and-desist letter, which alleged that Kalshi was operating unlicensed sports wagering, ordered it to stop offering sports event contracts to customers in Tennessee, void those contracts and refund deposits, and threatened fines and further legal action. 

Related: Nevada court hits Polymarket with temporary restraining order, tests CFTC control

Kalshi has similarly gone to federal court in multiple states, including Nevada, New Jersey, and Connecticut, over cease-and-desist actions targeting its event markets, with courts reaching divergent conclusions on whether to grant preliminary relief.

CFTC steps in to defend prediction markets

​The injunction also lands against a shifting federal backdrop, as the CFTC moves to assert primacy over prediction markets.

In a video message on Tuesday, CFTC Chair Michael Selig said the agency had filed a friend-of-the-court brief to defend its “exclusive jurisdiction” over prediction markets, warning state authorities that the commission would meet them in court if they tried to undermine federal oversight of these derivative markets.

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