Crypto World
Ethereum Defies Bearish Short Report as $1.2B Daily Burn Continues to Outpace Network Inflation
TLDR:
- Ethereum daily ETH burn reached $1.2B in February 2026, still outpacing the 0.8% annual inflation rate.
- Validator APR held at 4–5% in March 2026, marginally above the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield of 4.2%.
- After removing L2 batch submissions, spam transactions account for only 4% of real network activity.
- Active Ethereum addresses surged 117% year-over-year, led by real users on Arbitrum, Base, and zk-EVMs.
Ethereum metrics challenge bearish claims as network burn continues to outpace supply in early 2026. A short report from Culper Research raised concerns about fee compression, spam activity, and validator sustainability.
However, on-chain data from February and March 2026 presents a contrasting picture. Daily ETH burn remained at $1.2 billion in February, exceeding the 0.8% annual inflation rate. The network continues to destroy more ETH than it produces, keeping supply dynamics intact.
Burn Rate and Fee Data Contradict the Bearish Narrative
Culper Research pointed to a 90% drop in median gas prices as a sign of network deterioration. Fees fell from roughly $2 to $0.20 following the Fusaka upgrade.
That decline, however, was built into the upgrade’s design from the start. The goal was to lower costs and redirect activity toward Layer 2 solutions. The drop was expected, not alarming.
Total daily ETH burn held at $1.2 billion through February 2026, despite lower per-gas prices. That figure still exceeds the network’s 0.8% annual inflation rate.
As a result, Ethereum remains deflationary in practice, with more ETH destroyed than created. The tokenomics argument against ETH loses ground when burn data is factored in.
Ethereum Daily, a crypto commentary account on X, addressed the report directly. The account wrote: “We need more clowns like Culper. Short $ETH if you want, but nobody cares.”
The post systematically challenged each claim in the Culper report. The response resonated broadly across crypto communities online.
The Fusaka upgrade’s fee reduction is also drawing more participants into the ecosystem. Lower transaction costs make Ethereum more accessible to everyday users.
That accessibility supports growing adoption across retail and institutional segments. Over time, broader usage tends to increase total burn volume even at lower per-unit rates.
Validator Yields and User Growth Support Network Stability
Validator economics also remain competitive heading into Q1 2026. Block rewards hold steady at approximately 2 ETH per block.
Total validator APR, including MEV rewards, ranged between 4% and 5% in March 2026. That return sits marginally above the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield of around 4.2%.
Staked ETH currently stands at roughly 19 million, representing about 66% of total supply. That level is well above the 30–40% threshold considered sufficient for network security.
The staking withdrawal queue has stayed flat near 3.2 million ETH for six consecutive months. Culper’s claim of a growing withdrawal backlog does not align with that data.
On the activity side, Culper flagged dust attacks as making up 22% of all transactions. After stripping out L2 batch submissions, spam transactions represent only about 4% of real network activity.
Non-spam wallet creation grew approximately 12% year-over-year in Q1 2026. Active addresses also rose 117% year-over-year, driven by users on Optimism, Arbitrum, Base, and zk-EVMs.
BitMine (BMNR) also drew scrutiny in the report for its ETH holdings. The firm holds roughly 4.47 million ETH, valued at around $9 billion.
Staking operations generate approximately $350 million annually in fees. With over $3 billion in cash equivalents on hand, the firm shows no signs of a financial strain.
Five years have passed since Michael Saylor’s possibly home-destroying advice about using a mortgage to keep a hold of bitcoin (BTC).
As of this week, the US government-sponsored mortgage system will finally allow Saylor’s acolytes and other BTC owners to belatedly follow this advice.
When Saylor originally told an audience to mortgage their houses to buy BTC on March 10, 2021, BTC was trading near $56,000. If anyone actually took that advice, by November of the following year, BTC had cratered 72% to $15,500.
As a result, and given the high collateralization requirements of BTC-backed loans at that time, they would have likely lost their house — unless they had access to additional assets to re-collateralize their loan.
On Thursday, Coinbase and its Better Home & Finance partner announced their first crypto-backed mortgage that conforms to Fannie Mae standards.
Coinbase’s first BTC-backed mortgage
Like Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae is a government-sponsored enterprise (GSE) under conservatorship of the US Federal Housing Finance Agency. The net worth of GSEs are periodically swept to the US Treasury.
A “conforming mortgage” is a standardized loan that enjoys interest rate subsidies from GSEs and can be easily packaged together with other, similar loans and re-hypothecated across Wall Street.
Borrowers receive two loans. The first is a standard, USD Fannie Mae mortgage on the home. The second, secured by the borrowers’ BTC or USDC, covers the initial down payment. Only two digital assets, BTC and Coinbase’s USDC, qualify at launch.
Incredibly, borrowers receive just 40% of the market price of BTC for its pledge as collateral. In other words, a borrower must lock up $250,000 in BTC to cover a $100,000 down payment.
USDC, a stablecoin that has traded in a somewhat narrower range between roughly $0.86 and $1.10 against USD on Kraken, gets a more generous 80% credit.
Customers reliquish private key control to their crypto, holding it in custody at Better’s Coinbase Prime account for the life of the mortgage loan.
Bill Pulte’s BTC mortgage pipeline
Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) Director William “Bill” Pulte ordered Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac on June 25, 2025 to prepare to count cryptocurrency as a qualifying mortgage asset.
This product is the direct result of his initiative.
Pulte is a quintessential trust fund kid, the 37-year-old grandson of the billionaire PulteGroup founder. He made his name through Twitter philanthropy engagement farming, giving away cash to strangers on social media.
His Twitter antics earned him a retweet from Donald Trump in 2019, and eventually a nomination to run the FHFA.
His family’s charitable foundation has publicly distanced itself from him, and PulteGroup’s board removed him from his decision-making role.
Pulte’s financial disclosures list up to $1 million in BTC, similar holdings in Solana tokens, and $5-25 million in Mara Holdings, a BTC mining company.
After Trump’s nomination, he installed himself as chairman of both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac boards, stacked them with allies, and then ordered the very crypto underwriting rules from which his BTC portfolio stands to benefit.
This time, at 60% LTV, no margin calls
Coinbase immediately highlighted the technicality that this BTC-backed mortgage features, after an initial 60% haircut on its market value, no further margin calls or collateral top-ups.
If BTC drops 50%, the borrower owes nothing extra as long as the pre-agreed USD payments continue. The borrower pays interest on two loans, not one, and the non-crypto backed USD mortgage is entirely USD denominated from the start.
The pledged crypto cannot be traded. Coinbase’s partner returns it only after the mortgage is fully repaid.
If the borrower falls 60 days behind on payments, Better can liquidate the BTC and/or USDC.
Foreclosure on the home begins at 180 days.
Read more: Michael Saylor went from ‘sell a kidney’ to $20 billion loss at Strategy
Criticism
Consumer groups have been less enthusiastic than Coinbase or Saylor about crypto-backed mortgages.
The Consumer Federation of America and National Consumer Law Center wrote to Pulte that “a system built on crypto-related assets threatens to grow the market based on what may turn out to be a house of cards.”
Amanda Fischer at Better Markets told The American Prospect the directive “seemed to be based on some tweets.”
Multiple senators have warned Pulte about his “serious conflict between your ability to order and approve the enterprises’ proposals as FHFA Director and to ultimately influence the development of such proposals as chair of the enterprises’ boards.”
The Government Accountability Office began investigating Pulte in December 2025.
Better CEO Vishal Garg, the product’s chief evangelist, fired 900 employees over a Zoom call in December 2021.
Saylor’s original vision for a BTC-backed mortgage arrived before a 72% collapse in BTC within two years.
Now, the US government-backed mortgage system is officially in the business of making that bet easier in 2026 at a 60% loan to value (LTV) that wouldn’t even have covered that drawdown.
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Bitcoin (BTC) neared $66,000 at Friday’s Wall Street open as analysis called US inflation trends “objectively unsustainable.”
Key points:
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Bitcoin drops further on oil-supply woes as Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz.
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BTC price performance is set to seal its sixth straight month of losses at the March close.
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Traders eye the lows with $70,000 back as resistance.
Oil squeeze creates US bond-market havoc
Data from TradingView captured ongoing BTC price losses, which approached 4% on the day and threatened to turn March into Bitcoin’s sixth consecutive “red” month.
Macro headlines drove weakness across risk assets. US stocks opened downward after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, sharpening nerves over global oil supplies.
With the US-Iran war set to extend into April, markets showed stress everywhere — including US bonds.
“The US bond market is in major trouble today,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter warned in a post on X.
Kobeissi noted that the 10-year Treasury note was now at its highest levels since the war began, creating a major headache for the Federal Reserve as it tries to tame inflation as labor-market conditions worsen.
“In less than one month, markets have gone from discussing rate cuts to rate hikes, with the base case showing a Fed PAUSE for the next 18 months,” it continued.
“Keep in mind, the Fed was cutting interest rates because the labor market was weak, and it remains weak. However, inflation expectations have just become an even bigger problem than the labor market. This is objectively unsustainable.”
As Cointelegraph reported, oil prices have a pronounced impact on US inflation trends, while markets have also raised expectations of recession hitting in 2026.
“Inflation expectations have become so bad that the market is trading like an emergency Fed rate hike is imminent,” Kobeissi founder Adam Kobeissi added.
Bitcoin price resistance settles in at $70,000
Among Bitcoin traders, the mood was just as wary as BTC/USD circled its lowest levels in three weeks.
Related: Bitcoin value ‘off the chart’ as BTC price metric hits record lows in 2026
Analyzing four-hour time frames, Telegram trading resource Technical Crypto Analyst predicted a “likely” return to $64,000 next.
“BTC has clearly broken its ascending trendline and is now showing lower highs under the 70–72K supply, confirming a short-term bearish shift; with price losing the 68K support, continuation toward the 64–65K demand zone is likely, and only a reclaim above 70K would invalidate the bearish momentum,” it told subscribers.
Data from CoinGlass revealed the high stakes for price into the March monthly close, with BTC/USD readying its first six straight months of losses since the end of its 2018 bear market.
“Indeed seeing the market derisking into the weekend as expected and as we’ve been seeing several weeks now,” trader Daan Crypto Trades continued.
“Eyes on that $65.6K low from last week Monday. Main area to watch for me will be the range low. Seeing there’s still quite a bit of liquidity around that area.”
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
XRP price is trading at $1.35, down almost 2% on the day, and the headline reason for optimism is, paradoxically, part of the prediction problem. Ripple’s freshly announced AI security upgrade for the XRP Ledger landed this week with institutional fanfare. The price barely moved. What’s actually driving the tape right now tells a more complicated story.
On March 26, Ripple published a detailed blog post outlining an AI-driven security framework for XRPL: adversarial code scanning for every pull request, AI-assisted code reviews, dedicated red-team fuzzing, and large-scale attack simulations.
— Crypto Briefing (@Crypto_Briefing) March 26, 2026
NEW: Ripple is rolling out AI-driven security testing across the XRP Ledger, deploying an AI-assisted red team that has already identified new vulnerabilities. pic.twitter.com/1kjhAlIEcu
Data flags surging Binance open interest, repeated long liquidations, and a bearish wedge breakdown as the dominant near-term forces. Fundamental upgrades and derivative-market mechanics rarely move on the same clock.
With leverage rebuilding and technical structure under pressure, the question isn’t whether XRPL is becoming more secure; it clearly is, but whether the market cares right now.
Discover: The best crypto to diversify your portfolio with
XRP Price Prediction: Can Ripple Price Hit $1.5 Before Month-End?
The technical picture is cautious. XRP has spent the past several weeks range-bound, printing a bearish pin bar rejection at the upper boundary of a consolidation channel that has defined price action since late January. The token hit $1.60 earlier in March before a 3.3% retreat, a level that now acts as near-term resistance.
Key levels to watch: $1.27 is the critical floor, aligning with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and what analysts describe as the bear market support line. To the upside, $1.51 represents the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement; breaking and holding above it would signal a structural shift.
On-chain data shows limited meaningful resistance until the $1.75–$1.80 range, where approximately 1.85 billion XRP were accumulated. But it’s a long way to go.
Longer-dated year-end forecasts range from $1.64 to $2.15, with AI models flagging a “significant disconnect between market panic and a projected H2 surge.” That may well play out, but traders watching the daily chart need $1.51 to flip before conviction builds.
Discover: The best pre-launch token sales
LiquidChain Targets Early Mover Upside as XRP Tests Key Levels
XRP holding the $1.27 floor is far from a disaster, but the asymmetry here is limited; even a clean breakout to $1.80 represents roughly 31% upside from current levels. For traders already positioned and watching leverage risk accumulate, that risk/reward ratio demands scrutiny.
Early-stage infrastructure plays offer a different calculus entirely, particularly when the macro argument (cross-chain liquidity, institutional rails) overlaps with XRP’s own use case.
LiquidChain is a Layer 3 infrastructure project building what it calls the Cross-Chain Liquidity Layer, fusing liquidity from Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana into a single execution environment. The architecture centers on a Unified Liquidity Layer, Single-Step Execution, Verifiable Settlement, and a Deploy-Once structure that lets developers access all three ecosystems without redeployment.
A new layer emerges. Only a few see it first. — LiquidChain (@getliquidchain) March 24, 2026
The future is LiquidChain 
⟁https://t.co/vqvBcdSj94 pic.twitter.com/R7ZeZ0NPGl
The presale is currently priced at $0.014, with more than $600K raised to date. The project also offers more than 1700% APY staking rewards for early buyers.
The early-stage entry price is the obvious draw. Presales carry meaningful risk — no live mainnet, no exchange listing yet, and liquidity post-launch is never guaranteed. Traders weighing XRP’s compressed near-term range against alternative positioning may find the comparison useful. Research LiquidChain here before the current presale tranche closes.
This article is not financial advice. Crypto markets are highly volatile. Always conduct your own research before investing.
The post XRP Price Prediction: AI Growth Not Lifting XRP, For Now appeared first on Cryptonews.
Solana meme coin WhiteWhale has crashed about 50% after its founder quit over family pressure and “pump the price” demands, locking $13m in tokens as the meme hangover deepens.
Summary
- Solana-based meme coin WhiteWhale plunged about 50% after its founder “The White Whale” abruptly quit the project.
- The trader cited a family crisis and pressure to “pump the price,” permanently locking 500 million tokens worth roughly $13 million.
- WhiteWhale’s market cap now sits near $12 million, with $5.4 million in 24-hour trading volume as traders reassess the project.
Solana (SOL) meme coin WhiteWhale has crashed by roughly 50% after its leading figure, the trader known as “The White Whale,” suddenly announced his exit from the project, saying he could no longer handle the personal and community pressures surrounding the token. According to a ChainCatcher report relayed by KuCoin, the coin’s market capitalization has dropped to about $12 million, with 24-hour trading volume at $5.4 million as of March 27. In his farewell, the founder cited a “personal family crisis” and exhaustion from constant demands to “pump the price,” and moved to lock 500 million WHITEWHALE tokens—valued at approximately $13 million at the time—into a non-spendable address.
Before the latest plunge, WhiteWhale had become one of Solana’s breakout meme assets, briefly topping a $110 million market cap in early January while trading near $0.11 and logging a 2,700% gain over 30 days, with more than 12,000 holding addresses and $4.8 million in daily volume, according to BlockBeats data cited by KuCoin.
BlockBeats separately reported that the token’s market cap had earlier surpassed $90 million on a rebound from around $0.04, with a 24-hour volume of $3.84 million. That speculative run-up made WhiteWhale a key part of Solana’s late-2025 meme coin narrative, where tokens routinely added tens of millions of dollars in value on little more than social media momentum.
In his parting note, the trader behind @TheWhiteWhaleV2 insisted the move was not a rug pull but an attempt to remove himself from the price loop. “Our largest private holder exited the majority of their position… we didn’t participate in the selling, although we did do some buybacks,” he had previously written when defending an earlier January crash, framing it as a “liquidity event” that broadened token distribution rather than a treasury-driven dump. This time, however, he said he could not continue with the community’s constant fixation on short-term gains and accusations whenever the chart turned.
WhiteWhale’s collapse comes against a darker backdrop for Solana’s meme ecosystem. A Protos investigation last year found that 12 Solana pre-sale meme coin founders who raised a combined $26.7 million had already abandoned their projects, leaving most tokens nearly worthless. As Phemex recently noted, Solana’s broader meme coin crash in early 2026 saw weekly DEX volume on key platforms like Pump.fun and Meteora collapse, as speculative flows dried up and SOL itself slid from around $116 to $85, erasing billions in paper wealth.
In a previous crypto.news story, analysts warned that meme coins like WhiteWhale—despite occasional 2,000% rallies—are structurally fragile, with concentration among early insiders and no fundamental cash flows to anchor valuations. WhiteWhale’s latest 50% wipeout, triggered not by code exploits but by one trader’s decision to walk away and lock $13 million in tokens, now serves as a stark reminder of how much of this market still revolves around personalities rather than products.
Backpack CEO Armani Ferrante denies BP OTC cash‑outs and downplays FDV focus as anger over “witch hunt” Sybil bans forces appeals, buybacks and a fairness rethink.
Summary
- Backpack founder Armani Ferrante denied that the team sold BP tokens over-the-counter to cash out, calling the rumors “FUD.”
- Ferrante said earlier OTC comments were only meant to help large buyers find liquidity, not to facilitate insider sales.
- He admitted the exchange’s handling of “witch hunt” Sybil cases was “too mechanical” and promised re-evaluations, while downplaying short-term FDV as a meaningful metric.
Backpack founder and CEO Armani Ferrante has moved to calm a backlash around the exchange’s BP token launch, publicly denying that the team conducted over-the-counter sales to exit its position and conceding that its aggressive anti-Sybil process has unfairly hit parts of the community. In a detailed post on X, Ferrante wrote: “OTC. I can’t believe I have to say this, no, we aren’t OTCing our own tokens to cash out,” adding that “FUD is an opportunity to either address misunderstandings or to identify mistakes and simply fix them.” [x.com] He stressed that past mentions of OTC were “only about helping serious buyers find tokens,” not about offloading the team’s allocation.
The comments follow days of anger over BP’s token generation event on March 23, where airdrop rewards were sharply reduced or revoked for users flagged as “witches,” or suspected Sybil accounts. On X, Ferrante acknowledged that the review process had become overly rigid, writing that the team’s approach to witch cases had been “too mechanical” and that “more complex cases are being re-evaluated.” An analysis by AInvest noted that Backpack has now opened an appeal channel and committed to restoring up to 50% of tokens for some affected users, alongside a buyback program aimed at stabilizing BP’s secondary-market liquidity.
The storm erupted as BP began trading with a fully diluted valuation that quickly pushed toward the $200 million range, in line with probabilities markets had already priced in. In February, Odaily reported Polymarket markets assigning a 98% chance that BP’s FDV would exceed $100 million and an 87% chance it would surpass $200 million on the day after listing, implying a price range of roughly $0.10 to $0.20 per token. AInvest later estimated that BP had fallen to about $0.27, putting its FDV near $200 million as community trust wobbled.
Ferrante, however, urged users to look past short-term market swings. “FDV is not the core metric we are optimizing for,” he wrote, arguing instead that “long-term product-market fit, compliance and transparency” would determine Backpack’s eventual value. As [KuCoin] reported ahead of TGE, Backpack has touted a more “IPO-like” tokenomics structure tied to its underlying equity and compliance footprint, operating in fewer than half of global jurisdictions to stay within regulatory guardrails.
The current crisis lands at an awkward time for Backpack, which has heavily marketed itself as a post-FTX “safety first” exchange with daily proof-of-reserves and a Solana-focused trading stack. In a previous crypto.news story, Ferrante described the exchange as an attempt to “do it the right way” after losing $14.5 million in the FTX collapse and watching industry trust evaporate. Now, the exchange’s promise of fairness is being tested by users who feel blindsided by airdrop clawbacks and suspicious of any hint of OTC activity.
Backpack’s response—public denials of OTC cash-outs, a softer line on witch cases, and a renewed emphasis on long-term alignment—will determine whether the BP launch is remembered as a messy but fixable rollout or as the moment the project’s social capital peaked. In a market still scarred by exchange blowups and opaque token deals, how Ferrante follows through on these promises may matter more than BP’s next tick on the chart.
The odds of Sam Bankman-Fried receiving a presidential pardon remain a niche, high-profile topic shaping crypto policy discourse rather than a near-term legal turn. After a March interview with CNN featuring Bankman-Fried’s parents, the two leading American prediction markets trimmed their odds for a pardon in 2026, underscoring how public appeals and framing of the case can subtly influence sentiment around the former FTX chief executive.
Polymarket and Kalshi kept their 2026 pardon probability estimates in the single digits, yet each nudged slightly downward in response to the interview and subsequent media attention. Polymarket’s price implied an 11% chance of a presidential pardon this year, while Kalshi priced in about 9%. The moves followed a CNN broadcast in which Barbara Fried and Joseph Bankman argued that their son’s fraud conviction should be reconsidered and that Alameda Research borrowed customer funds from FTX, but the funds were not used improperly.
Key takeaways
- The latest prediction-market odds assign about 11% (Polymarket) and 9% (Kalshi) to a 2026 pardon for Sam Bankman-Fried, with minor declines after the parents’ CNN interview.
- FTX-related litigation has evolved from a 2023 bankruptcy-era dispute to a 2026 appellate effort, with Fried filing an appeal in February 2026 claiming new testimony could undermine government assertions about insolvency and Alameda’s deficits.
- The interview framed Bankman-Fried’s actions as mischaracterized by prosecutors, while his mother and father argued the prosecution was political and pledged to pursue exoneration, highlighting tensions over crypto policy and political influence.
- Political donations and crypto policy remain interwoven in the public narrative, as lawmakers and presidential contenders weigh the implications of clemency while crypto industry stakeholders monitor enforcement signals and regulatory direction.
Bankman-Fried pardon odds and the CNN interview
Market attention around a possible presidential clemency for Bankman-Fried has historically hovered between speculative and symbolic. After CNN aired an interview with Bankman-Fried’s parents, the probability signals on Polymarket and Kalshi shifted modestly downward. The interviews framed the case through a defense of the family’s view that the fraud conviction was built on a contested understanding of the funds flow and the role Alameda played alongside FTX. In their portrayal, they acknowledged that Alameda borrowed from FTX, but insisted the money was never misused and remained adequately secured in the system.
The interview also re-centered the public narrative around the family’s involvement in the case. Bankman-Fried has long positioned himself as a controversial figure in U.S. crypto policy—donating to both Democratic and other political figures—while the interview sought to separate his personal political activity from the broader enforcement actions taken by the government. The narrative tension—between alleged corporate mismanagement, political overtones, and the fate of customer funds—continues to shape how observers interpret the likelihood of a pardon.
Legal backstory: the bankruptcy case, the appeal, and what changed
FTX’s bankruptcy saga has been a central thread in the discourse around Bankman-Fried’s legal exposure. In a Delaware bankruptcy filing, FTX alleged that Bankman and his mother engaged in transfers and misappropriation, seeking to recover a $10 million cash gift and a $16.4 million Bahamas property. The filing painted a picture of a broader culture of misrepresentation and mismanagement, at least from the exchange’s perspective. The case was eventually dismissed without prejudice in February 2025, meaning it could be refiled in the future.
In February 2026, Fried filed an appeal on behalf of her son, arguing that new testimony could undermine three central government claims about FTX’s condition in late 2022. Those points were that FTX was insolvent on November 11, 2022; that there was no reasonable prospect of customer repayment; and that Alameda ran a multi-billion-dollar deficit on FTX’s books. Bankman-Fried countered that the money remained in place and never left the corporate estate, asserting that “the money was always there” and that Alameda possessed sufficient security.
The appellate move also sought to challenge the presiding judge, alleging “extreme prejudice” during the trial. Fried framed the prosecution as political, and both parents echoed a view that the Biden administration’s crypto stance contributed to a broader crackdown on the industry. While Bankman-Fried’s donations to Democratic politicians were noted in coverage, the interview emphasized a distinction between political activity and the merits of the case itself, arguing that the outcome should hinge on the facts rather than politics.
A broader frame: politics, policy, and the crypto industry
The discussion around pardons sits within a larger ecosystem of crypto regulation and enforcement in the United States. Analysts and lawmakers have long debated how clemency dynamics interact with the policy landscape—especially when high-profile figures are connected to the sector. A Campaign Legal Center analysis highlighted how clemency practices have sometimes rewarded loyalty or brokered deals, a lens some observers apply to the Bankman-Fried case as part of a broader clemency playbook.
On the political front, Senator Cynthia Lummis has publicly cautioned against expectations of a pardon, underscoring the harm she believes Bankman-Fried’s actions caused to individuals and the sector. President Trump’s own stance, as reported, has suggested he would not pardon Bankman-Fried, a position that, in turn, feeds into the wider public debate about the proper boundaries of executive clemency and the optics surrounding crypto-related prosecutions. Bloomberg has reported that Fried and Bankman-Fried have explored pathways to obtain a pardon since Trump’s ascent to the presidency, including discussions with advisers and figures in Trump’s orbit.
Meanwhile, Bankman-Fried’s March social-media post supporting a hardline stance on Iran’s policies—alongside a widely discussed ceasefire forecast in market betting odds—demonstrates how a single public posture can become a proxy for broader political risk signals within the crypto space. The market’s attention to these signals—ranging from clemency to geopolitical flashpoints—reflects a sector that remains highly sensitive to policy shifts, enforcement tone, and the personalities at the center of the case.
What readers should watch next
As the appellate process unfolds and the political weather around crypto policy continues to evolve, investors and users should monitor several threads. First, any fresh testimony or filings in the bankruptcy proceedings could reshape the government’s asserted facts about FTX and Alameda, potentially influencing both legal strategy and public perception. Second, the pardon conversation—whether it gains new momentum or fades—will continue to reflect the interplay between political considerations and crypto industry sentiment. Finally, broader regulatory developments, congressional inquiries, and executive actions will shape how the market prices risk around enforcement and governance as the case moves forward.
In short, while a Bankman-Fried pardon remains a speculative and low-probability event in the near term, the episode continues to serve as a barometer for how policy, politics, and a high-profile crypto failure interact in real time. Watch for new courtroom filings, any shifts in pardon discourse, and the evolving stance of policymakers on the crypto industry as the year progresses.
Prediction market traders trimmed the odds of a presidential pardon for former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried after his parents renewed their public defense of him in a CNN interview.
Summary
- Polymarket and Kalshi lowered Sam Bankman-Fried pardon odds after his parents defended him on CNN.
- Joseph Bankman and Barbara Fried argued Alameda borrowed customer funds but did not misuse them.
- The family appeal challenges claims that FTX was insolvent and customers lacked repayment options altogether.
Polymarket placed the chance of a pardon this year at 11%, while Kalshi showed 9%, both lower than before the March 21 interview. The move was small, but it followed fresh public efforts by Joseph Bankman and Barbara Fried to challenge the fraud case and appeal for a different view of their son’s conduct.
Prediction markets in the United States showed a slight decline in the odds of a pardon for Bankman-Fried after the CNN appearance by his parents. Polymarket fell by 2 percentage points and Kalshi dropped by 1 point, leaving the chances in single digits to low teens.
The decline came as the interview brought the case back into public discussion. Traders appeared to respond to the renewed attention, even though neither market showed a major shift. The figures still suggested that a pardon remained unlikely in 2026.
In the interview with Michael Smerconish, Bankman and Fried said they believed the judgment against their son was wrong. Bankman said, “There’s an appeal on the case, but we don’t think it’s fraud.” Both also accepted that Alameda Research borrowed customer funds from FTX, but they argued that those funds were not misused.
Bankman said Alameda “acted like everybody else, putting in money and borrowing money.” He also said “the money was always there” and claimed Alameda had enough backing to cover its positions. Fried said, “All the money, it was there, every penny of it,” while arguing that the assets ended up in the FTX estate during the bankruptcy process.
The parents’ defense has also renewed attention on their own links to FTX. Bankman worked as a paid adviser to the exchange, while Fried was described as a political consultant. During FTX’s bankruptcy process in 2023, the estate sued them in Delaware, seeking to recover funds and property it said were improperly transferred.
The complaint alleged that they discussed receiving a $10 million cash gift and a $16.4 million luxury property in the Bahamas. It also said Bankman helped sustain a culture of misstatements and poor management inside the company. That case was dismissed without prejudice in February 2025, which means the claims were not permanently closed.
Appeal and pardon effort face political barriers
In February 2026, Fried filed an appeal on behalf of her son. The filing argued that new testimony would challenge three key government claims: that FTX was insolvent on Nov. 11, 2022, that customers had no real prospect of repayment, and that Alameda regularly carried a multi-billion-dollar deficit on FTX.
The family has also tried to frame the case in political terms. Fried said, “Sam’s prosecution was essentially political,” and argued that parts of the Biden administration targeted the crypto industry. Still, public support for a pardon appears limited. Senator Cynthia Lummis told Politico, “I hope the president doesn’t fall for that. […] He hurt a lot of people.”
Trump has also reportedly indicated that he would not pardon Bankman-Fried, leaving betting market traders with little reason to raise the odds.
Summary
- ECB staff paper finds top 100 holders in Aave, MakerDAO, Ampleforth and Uniswap control over 80% of governance tokens.
- Concentrated voting blocs threaten DeFi protocols’ claims to “fully decentralized” status under MiCA.
- Findings raise risk that leading DeFi DAOs could be pulled inside the EU’s licensing and compliance regime.
The European Central Bank (ECB) has published a working paper arguing that governance in flagship DeFi protocols like Aave, MakerDAO, Ampleforth and Uniswap is far more centralized than their “decentralized autonomous organization” branding suggests, a conclusion that could strip them of regulatory safe harbor under the EU’s MiCA regime. The staff study, titled “Who to regulate? Identifying actors within DeFi’s governance,” finds that the top 100 holders in each of the four protocols collectively control more than 80% of governance token supply, with “around half or more holdings linked” to the protocols themselves or exchanges.
According to the ECB researchers, voting power is even more concentrated than token ownership, with top voters “mostly delegates, who, in many cases, could not be identified nor linked to token holders.” In Ampleforth, the paper highlights that the top 20 voters account for roughly 96% of proxy voting rights, a structure that leaves real control in the hands of a small, opaque elite. That concentration, the authors warn, turns many DAOs into what prior academic work has called “minority rule,” where a few large token holders or delegates can effectively dictate protocol outcomes.
Under the EU’s Markets in Crypto-Assets regulation, crypto-asset services that are “provided in a fully decentralised manner without any intermediary” can fall outside the core licensing perimeter. The ECB paper directly questions whether Aave, MakerDAO’s Sky ecosystem, Uniswap and Ampleforth can plausibly claim that status when more than half of governance tokens in some cases are linked to founding teams or centralized exchanges such as Binance. “The concentration of governance power remains stable over time,” the authors write, arguing that decentralization here is “form over substance.”
For policymakers, the study’s aim is explicit: identify “regulatory anchor points” in systems that were designed to avoid having a traditional issuer, board or CEO. The authors stress that limited on-chain transparency about the real-world identities behind key delegates “complicates efforts to assess accountability and reinforces concerns about the concentration of power.” That, in turn, bolsters arguments from EU agencies and legal commentators that MiCA’s decentralization exemption must be interpreted narrowly, with regulators focusing on where effective decision-making and operational control actually sit, rather than on marketing language about DAOs.
In practice, the ECB’s approach signals that supervisors are ready to treat DeFi governance structures with the same forensic scrutiny applied to large banks’ shareholder registers and control chains. If Aave, Uniswap or MakerDAO cannot demonstrate materially dispersed and accountable governance, their DAOs may be forced into the same kind of licensing, capital, and compliance obligations now facing centralized crypto-asset service providers across the bloc.
Crypto World
Bitcoin price (BTC) slides alongside software stocks following leak of new Anthropic model
Anthropic, the artificial intelligence company behind Claude, has begun testing a new AI model more capable than any it has released previously, Fortune reported.
The company said the model represents “a step change” in performance and is “the most capable we’ve built to date.” It is currently being tested with a small group of early access customers as Anthropic evaluates its behavior and risks.
Among the names moving sharply lower on the news: Palo Alto Networks (PANW), Crowdstrike (CRWD) and Fortinet (FTNT) are all down 4%-6%. The broader iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) is off 2.5%.
The overnight leak likely contributed to bitcoin’s tumble back to $66,000 after flirting with $70,000 hours earlier.
Details about the model surfaced after internal materials were accidentally exposed in a publicly accessible data store, according to Fortune. Around 3,000 assets linked to Anthropic’s blog were available online, including draft announcements and internal content that had not yet been released.
Among the files was a draft blog post referring to the model as “Claude Mythos.” The document warned that the system could pose serious cybersecurity risks, pointing to its ability to identify and exploit software vulnerabilities.
Anthropic currently offers three tiers of models — Opus, Sonnet and Haiku — which vary in size, cost and capability. The leaked materials suggest the company is developing a new tier called “Capybara,” which would be even larger and more intelligent than Opus, the company’s most advanced model to date.
TLDR
- Intercontinental Exchange invested $600 million in Polymarket as part of its funding agreement.
- ICE plans to purchase up to $40 million in Polymarket securities from existing holders.
- The new investment completes ICE’s previously announced $2 billion commitment.
- ICE made its initial $1 billion investment in Polymarket in October 2025.
- The October 2025 deal valued Polymarket at about $8 billion before the investment.
Intercontinental Exchange confirmed a new $600 million direct cash investment into Polymarket on Friday morning. The company also plans to acquire up to $40 million in securities from existing holders. With these steps, ICE completes its previously announced investment arrangement with the platform.
ICE Expands Financial Commitment to Polymarket
ICE disclosed that the $600 million payment forms part of Polymarket’s ongoing equity capital raise. The company also expects to purchase up to $40 million in securities from certain current shareholders. Together, these transactions fulfill ICE’s structured commitment of up to $2 billion.
ICE made its first direct investment in October 2025 with a $1 billion tranche. That transaction valued Polymarket at about $8 billion before the investment. The post-money valuation ranged between $9 billion and $10 billion. However, ICE has not yet disclosed the valuation attached to the new $600 million tranche.
The company stated that it will release specific terms after Polymarket completes its fundraising. ICE confirmed that these investments will not materially affect its financial results. It also said the transactions will not alter expected capital return plans.
ICE owns and operates the New York Stock Exchange. The company ranks among the largest providers of financial market technology and data worldwide. Therefore, the transaction adds Polymarket to its portfolio of strategic investments.
ICE structured the funding as a multi-part program. The latest payment and planned secondary purchases complete that program. No executive statements accompanied the March 2026 disclosure.
Polymarket Partnership and Market Position
Polymarket operates a prediction market platform focused on real-world event outcomes. Users place wagers based on aggregated probabilities of future events. During the 2024 U.S. presidential election, the platform recorded elevated activity from retail and institutional participants.
The October 2025 agreement included plans for ICE to distribute Polymarket’s event-driven data globally. ICE aimed to provide that data to institutional clients through its existing channels. The companies also referenced collaboration on tokenization initiatives at that time.
However, the latest announcement did not revisit distribution or tokenization plans. ICE focused solely on confirming the completion of its capital commitment. The company described the investment as part of its existing arrangement.
Polymarket’s primary competitor remains Kalshi, which operates under CFTC regulation. Both platforms offer contracts tied to event outcomes and probabilities. ICE did not comment on competitive positioning in its statement.
ICE reiterated that its total commitment now reaches the upper limit of the original agreement. The combined primary and secondary investments account for the full planned allocation. Specific valuation details will follow once Polymarket finalizes its equity raise.
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