Bitcoin’s BTC$75,475.11 price action signals the momentum from U.S.–Iran ceasefire headlines is fading and markets are looking for substantive progress that could unwind war-driven stress across the global economy.

The largest cryptocurrency briefly topped $76,000 early today, only to fall back in a repeat of Tuesday’s choppy pattern. The stall follows a 10% climb, predominantly driven by news of the Iran-U.S. ceasefire from a week ago.

However, while optimism persists and President Donald Trump suggests the conflict is nearing an end, progress in negotiations to restore oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint that accounted for 20% of global flows before the war began, remains limited.

“A ceasefire extension alone is no longer enough. Markets need tangible progress such as restored energy flows, compression in crude premia, and clearer disinflation,” QCP Capital, one of the largest digital asset market makers in the world, said in an email.

“Until then, this remains a story of partial normalization rather than full repair. Constructive, but not yet comfortable.”

Traders should keep an eye on oil prices, as signs of normalization are likely to be evident in energy markets first. WTI recently traded near the weekly low of $87.50 and Brent around $90, a level it has held since April 8.

The continued decline in bitcoin and ether’s 30-day implied volatility indexes suggests traders expect material progress soon.

In the meantime, solana (SOL) and DOGE$0.09814 could see increased volatility as open futures contracts tied to these tokens have climbed to multiweek highs. The increases point to rising demand for leveraged exposure, which often amplifies price swings through liquidations and heightened market turbulence.

“Solana has significantly outperformed the market over the last day, attempting to bounce off an important long-term support line, but failing to do so for over two months now,” Alex Kuptsikevich, the chief market analyst at the FxPro, said in an email. “We will only be able to declare a victory for the bulls once it has consolidated above the $105 level, at which point we can talk about a return above the 200-week moving average.”

In traditional markets, the MOVE index, which measures the volatility in U.S. Treasury notes, has declined to 65%, reversing the war-led spike to 115% in March. This is bullish for risk assets as stability in the U.S. bond market, which underpins global finance, helps ease credit and financial conditions. Stay alert!

Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today . For a comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”

What’s trending

Today’s signal

The chart shows bitcoin’s hourly price action in candlestick format since March 31, highlighting a steady upward trajectory that has carried the asset from roughly $65,700 to around $76,000. The chart looks bullish with consistently higher lows, but there is a catch.

Within this uptrend, the price has briefly topped $76,000 at least twice, and both attempts have failed to produce a decisive breakout. From a technical analysis perspective, this indicates a developing double-top pattern, where two peaks form near the same level, signaling potential exhaustion in bullish momentum.

If the price dips below $73,300, the low formed between the two peaks, the double top pattern would be confirmed, suggesting scope for a deeper decline to $70,000.

Conversely, a sustained move above $76,000 could draw in more traders and strengthen the case for a rally to $88,000.

The crypto market has entered what CoinGecko calls a sustained crypto winter, with spot trading volumes on the largest centralized exchanges declining sharply in Q1 2026. According to CoinGecko’s Q1 2026 Crypto Industry Report, bearish momentum from late 2025 combined with renewed geopolitical tensions has cooled risk appetite across crypto markets.

During the quarter, overall market capitalization fell by more than 20%. The top 10 centralized exchanges by spot volume saw aggregated trading activity drop 39% quarter-on-quarter to $2.7 trillion, from $4.5 trillion in Q4 2025. March was especially weak, registering $800 billion in trading volume—the lowest monthly print since November 2023. Bitcoin, which had surged to a record above $126,000 roughly six months prior, declined about 22% in Q1 as the broader market waded through macro and geopolitical headwinds.

Key takeaways

• Market capitalization declined by more than 20% in Q1 2026.
• Top-10 spot exchanges logged a 39% QoQ drop in volume to $2.7 trillion from $4.5 trillion in Q4 2025.
• Bitcoin fell about 22% in Q1, lagging behind broader risk-off moves seen in traditional markets.
• Average daily crypto trading volume settled at $117.8 billion, down 27% from Q4 2025.
• HTX, formerly Huobi, recorded the steepest QoQ volume decline among major venues, down 55% to $133.6 billion; March activity totaled $800 billion, the lowest since November 2023.

Liquidity and momentum across the spot market

CoinGecko’s quarterly lens shows a broad erosion of liquidity across the top-tier exchanges. The top 10 platforms combined traded about $2.7 trillion in Q1 2026, a 39% quarterly drop. While January and February had kept volumes around $1 trillion per month, March marked a decisive pullback, underscoring thinner market depth as traders reassess risk in a climate of renewed macro and geopolitical uncertainty.

Bitcoin under pressure in a cautious macro environment

Bitcoin’s roughly 22% decline in Q1 reflects a crypto market still wrestling with risk-off dynamics even as traditional equities waver. The quarter’s macro backdrop featured pullbacks in major U.S. stock indices—Nasdaq and S&P 500—amid concerns about economic slowdown and policy direction, contributing to a market where crypto assets often move in step with broader risk sentiment but with amplified volatility.

Policy signals and market psychology

Beyond pure liquidity metrics, CoinGecko’s report flags macro-policy signals as a contributing factor to the crypto winter. In particular, the nomination of Kevin Warsh for the U.S. Federal Reserve chair was noted as signaling a potentially hawkish tilt in monetary policy—an environment that tends to compress risk-taking across asset classes, including crypto.

Liquidity concentration and what traders should watch

The data highlight a persistent concentration of activity on fewer venues. HTX, formerly Huobi, posted the sharpest QoQ decline among the major exchanges, with volumes down 55% to $133.6 billion. March’s sub-$1 trillion monthly pace reinforces the sense that crypto liquidity remains uneven, with execution quality potentially affected for traders and funds as volume evaporates on some platforms.

For market participants, the question now is whether this slowdown is a temporary pause or the start of a more protracted phase of lower liquidity and subdued risk appetite. The March print—$800 billion in volume and the weakest monthly figure since late 2023—serves as a clear warning sign that activity can contract quickly when macro conditions sour and policy signals tighten.

As investors digest these dynamics, attention will turn to macro data, central-bank rhetoric, and any shifts in exchange liquidity that could reshape funding costs and trading strategies. The coming weeks and months will reveal whether this is a shallow winter lull or a longer, structural recalibration for crypto markets.

Looking ahead, readers should watch how macro policy developments and geopolitical events unfold, and how shifts in liquidity on major venues influence price discovery and risk management within the broader crypto ecosystem.

TLDR

• AEHR shares climbed 15.41% Thursday following disclosure of a landmark $41 million production contract from a hyperscale client.
• The contract involves package-level burn-in testing for custom AI processor ASICs utilizing Aehr’s Sonoma high-power platform.
• Shipments are scheduled to commence in fiscal 2027, beginning June 27, 2026.
• One company director liquidated $1.21 million worth of shares on April 16, one day prior to the public announcement.
• Analyst consensus stands at Strong Buy with a mean price target of $62.

Aehr Test Systems secured its largest contract ever on Thursday, sending shares sharply higher. The semiconductor testing specialist revealed a $41 million production agreement with its primary hyperscale client for package-level burn-in testing of custom AI processor ASICs. AEHR stock jumped 15.41% following the disclosure.

Aehr Test Systems, AEHR

The agreement encompasses a significant quantity of Aehr’s Sonoma high-power package-level testing and burn-in platforms. Additionally, the contract includes turnkey burn-in modules along with device-specific sockets designed to configure the systems for particular AI processors.

This represents a repeat purchase, indicating the hyperscale customer — whose name remains undisclosed — has previously engaged with Aehr. The arrangement strengthens an already expanding partnership.

Shipments are scheduled to commence in Aehr’s fiscal 2027, which begins on June 27, 2026. This provides the company with a well-defined revenue pipeline in the near term.

CEO Gayn Erickson emphasized that this contract represents just the beginning. He pointed out that the customer is simultaneously developing a next-generation, higher-power AI accelerator ASIC anticipated to enter production later this year.

Aehr has already secured an initial purchase order from this identical customer for several Sonoma systems to facilitate production of the advanced device. This suggests the $41 million contract may be merely the opening chapter of a much larger opportunity.

“As these next-generation devices move into volume production, we see the potential for further substantial increases in demand for Sonoma systems and consumables in our next fiscal year,” Erickson said.

Impressive Performance Leading Up to the News

Thursday’s rally builds upon what has been an extraordinary period for AEHR. The stock has surged 246.95% year-to-date and has rocketed 805.07% over the trailing twelve months.

More than 1.75 million AEHR shares traded hands during the session, approaching the three-month average daily trading volume of approximately 2.77 million.

The historic contract also follows solid Q3 2026 financial results. Revenue reached $10.3 million, marginally below the $10.8 million estimate, though the company reported record quarterly bookings totaling $37.2 million. This achievement elevated its backlog beyond $50 million.

Regarding earnings per share, Aehr exceeded projections — delivering -$0.05 versus the anticipated -$0.07.

Wall Street and Insider Transactions

Analysts have been upgrading their price objectives. Freedom Broker increased its price target to $61 from $38 while maintaining a Hold rating. Lake Street elevated its target to $56 from $50, highlighting robust booking trends, and retained its Buy rating.

The prevailing Wall Street consensus stands at Strong Buy, with three Buy recommendations issued in the past three months. The mean price target reaches $62, suggesting approximately 26.67% upside potential from current levels.

Regarding insider transactions, Director Rhea J. Posedel divested 15,000 shares on April 16 at $80.72 per share, generating proceeds of $1.21 million. After this transaction, Posedel maintains direct ownership of 71,163 shares, along with an additional 411,979 shares held indirectly via a trust.

Bitcoin BTC$75,305.91 is testing $76,000 for a third day, trading at $75,440 as bullish traders continue to chip away at $450 million of sell orders between $75,900 and $76,300, CoinGlass data shows.

The orders will be placed by traders who are either attempting to short the range-high in expectation of a reversion to around $68,000, and those defending against a breakout with liquidation risk above.

U.S. equities surged to record highs on Thursday as the war in Iran appears to be winding down following a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon.

The crypto market outperformed equities since the start of the war, and is now taking a back seat.

Derivatives positioning

• Activity in the crypto futures market has picked up, with bitcoin briefly topping $76,000 during European trading hours. Total market volume has risen 28% to $225.8 billion, while open interest (OI) has edged up over 1.5% to $126.68 billion.
• More notably, total liquidations have surged 140% to $529 million, with short positions slightly exceeding longs, suggesting a mild short squeeze and building of upward pressure in the market.
• Solana’s SOL is leading the growth in OI among the biggest cryptocurrencies. In 24 hours, the number of active contracts in Solana futures has increased by 11% to 5.53 billion SOL, the most since March 18. Dogecoin is another standout, with OI hovering at the six-month high of 14.17 billion DOGE.
• SOL’s capital inflows appear to be driven by rising appetite for bullish positioning, with the positive funding rates and 24-hour OI-adjusted cumulative volume delta (CVD) signaling increasingly aggressive buying pressure.
• Signals for dogecoin remain mixed, as a positive CVD points to buying pressure, while slightly negative funding rates suggest lingering bearish sentiment among derivatives traders.
• Cardano’s ADA leads on an OI-adjusted CVD basis, pointing to strong buyer dominance and bullish positioning.
• The volatility meltdown continues, pointing to market calm and supporting further bullish price action. BTC’s 30-day implied volatility index (BVIV) has slipped to a fresh 2.5-month low of 43.35%. Ether’s index, EVIV, hovers near the recent low of around 65%.
• On Deribit, BTC and ETH options continue to show a bias for puts as a sign of lingering downside fears. Overall, the market looks positioned for gains, but it is not yet willing to go full-bull.

Token talk

• Altcoins lagged behind bitcoin on Friday as traders awaited a potential breakout or rejection before making speculative bets.
• The heavily bitcoin-weighted CoinDesk 5 (CD5) Index is up by 0.8% since midnight UTC, while the altcoin-dominant CoinDesk 100 (CD100) is marginally in the red.
• The CoinDesk Memecoin Index (CDMEME) was the worst-performing benchmark, losing around 2.8% as several tokens gave back most of Thursday’s gains.
• CoinMarketCap’s “Altcoin Season” indicator is at 37/100, a neutral area after it hit 53/100 last month and 19/100 in February.
• While the broader altcoin market is subdued, a small corner of the market is outperforming; KAS added 3.9% while PENDLE and AERO gained 3.5% and 2.5%, respectively.

Ethereum price climbed to an intraday high of $2,375 on Friday as Ethereum ETFs continued to draw steady institutional interest.

According to data from crypto.news, Ethereum (ETH) price was trading at $2,375 last check on Friday, April 17. The largest altcoin in the market was up 1% over the past 24 hours and up over 7% in the past 7 days.

Ethereum price rallied as institutional investors continue to show steady demand for the token.

According to data from SoSoValue, the 10 U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs recorded $18 million in net inflows on April 16, led by BlackRock’s ETHA.

Notably, these institutional products experienced back-to-back inflows for the sixth straight trading day, drawing in nearly $300 million in the period.

Although the flows have been moderate in nature when compared to the beginning of the year, when these products drew in over $100 million a day, they suggest that institutional investors are starting to accumulate the asset with renewed confidence.

With reports suggesting that the U.S. and Iran could end their ongoing conflict soon, Ethereum ETFs could see a boon in investor sentiment as capital flows back into riskier assets.

Meanwhile, Ethereum treasury firm Bimine has also been aggressively building its holdings with its most recent purchase completed on Monday, April 13. At the moment, the firm holds roughly 4% of the total circulating supply, which brings it very close to its goal of owning at least 5%.

Chairman Tom Lee, in the meantime, has noted that Ethereum is very close to exiting its long crypto winter after it formed a solid bottom recently.

This has fueled bullish expectations across the broader market as whales continue to lock up supply for the long term.

On the daily chart, Ethereum price is close to breaking out of the horizontal resistance line at $2,400, a level where it previously faced significant selling pressure.

The 50-day SMA is closing in on a bullish crossover with the 100-day SMA, a sign that the medium-term momentum is shifting in favor of the buyers.

Additionally, the MACD lines have pointed upwards, which means that the bullish trend is gaining strength, and volume is supporting the current price action.

As such, Ethereum price is expected to break $2,400 soon and potentially move towards the next key resistance target of $2,600. However, if the token’s price falls below $2,200, it could invalidate the current bullish setup and lead to a retest of lower support levels near $2,000.

Flow Capital Partners is set to bring its $150 million private credit fund to the DigiFT tokenization platform by the end of April.

Bloomberg reported Friday that the Hong Kong-based asset manager will offer on-chain shares of the fund, which originally debuted in June 2025. Management also intends to secure a further $30 million in tokenized investment by the end of this year. 

Such initiatives highlight a growing trend where traditional financial products are being replatformed onto public blockchains to tap into 24/7 liquidity. 

Global demand for these instruments has pushed the total real-world asset (RWA) market capitalization to a record $58 billion as of mid-April, according to data from CoinGecko.

Jacky Tian, chief investment officer of Flow Capital, said the company intends to scale the fund to $250 million by the end of 2026.

The move follows successful entries into the space by major institutions like BlackRock, whose BUIDL fund has become a primary vehicle for on-chain Treasuries, and JPMorgan, which opened its MONY money-market fund to external investors after an initial $100 million internal seeding. 

Ethereum serves as a primary hub for this activity, with its specific RWA market cap climbing over 200% year-over-year to $19.3 billion.

Bitfinex analysts pointed out in a recent report that the current market evolution centers on infrastructure, noting that on-chain assets provide “real-time transfer, global auditability, and improved transparency” when compared to traditional settlement rails.

Beyond private credit, tokenized commodities have reached a $7 billion valuation, with gold-backed tokens like Tether Gold (XAUt) serving as a dominant benchmark. 

New products covering soybeans, natural gas, and green energy credits are also emerging as active collateral layers for both decentralized and traditional finance protocols.

“Over $25bn in real-world assets (RWAs) have been tokenised, and most of it sits idle, earning nothing,” Bitfinex said. 

Linking these assets to lending and structured products is expected to gain pace as the stablecoin market—now valued at over $315 billion—continues to provide the necessary settlement liquidity.