Ethereum Price Analysis: ETH Jumps Past $2.5K as Moving Averages Eye Bullish Cross

Ethereum has recovered sharply from its mid-year lows and jumped past the key $2.5K level on Friday. The charts show a constructive improvement in the broader market structure, although ETH remains below several important higher-timeframe resistance levels.

Meanwhile, the Coinbase Premium Index is once again negative, suggesting that the recent recovery has not been accompanied by consistently strong spot demand from U.S. investors.

Ethereum Price Analysis: The Daily Chart

On the daily timeframe, ETH has undergone a significant structural recovery from the $1.5K support area. The rebound has pushed price back above both the 100-day and 200-day major moving averages shown on the chart, with the 100-day yellow average aggressively pushing toward the 200-day one from below, likely to form a bullish crossover around $2K.

ETH is currently trading around $2.5K, directly inside a key resistance zone. This area has repeatedly contained price during the recent consolidation. Yet, a valid daily breakout above it can lead to continuation of the recovery.

A successful move above the $2.5K area could expose the next major resistance around $3.0K. Beyond that, the larger daily resistance zone sits around $3.3K-$3.4K, which coincides with the broader structure established earlier in the year.

On the downside, the first important support is around $2.1K, where the moving averages are also currently clustered. Below this area, the $1.9K zone becomes the next notable support. Still, the daily RSI is around the mid-to-upper 50s, meaning momentum is still bullish but not showing an overbought reading anymore. Therefore, there could still be room to the upside if sufficient demand emerges.

ETH/USDT 4-Hour Chart

The 4-hour chart provides a clearer picture of the current consolidation. ETH has been trading inside a broad range roughly between $2.35K and $2.65K since the sharp late-August advance.

The latest price action shows ETH recovering from the lower portion of the range and returning toward the $2.5K area. The repeated reactions around the range boundaries suggest that the market is still in consolidation rather than an established directional breakout.

The immediate resistance is around $2.5K, followed by the upper range boundary near $2.65K. A decisive 4-hour breakout above the latter would provide a clearer structural shift and could open the way toward the higher daily resistance zones.

Conversely, rejection around the current resistance and a move back below $2.35K would weaken the short-term structure. Losing that zone would invalidate much of the current range-based bullish setup and bring the next major support into consideration, as a deeper retracement would be probable.

On-Chain Analysis

The Coinbase Premium Index is currently around -0.07, with the indicator spending much of the recent period below the zero line. The metric compares ETH prices on Coinbase with those on other major exchanges and is commonly used as an indication of relative buying or selling pressure from Coinbase’s predominantly U.S.-based market.

The notable point is the divergence between price and the premium index. ETH has recovered from roughly $1.5K to around $2.5K, yet the Coinbase Premium has generally remained negative during much of that advance. This suggests that the recovery visible on the price chart has not been accompanied by consistently strong US-based spot demand.

There have been brief positive spikes, particularly during parts of the summer, but they have not developed into a sustained positive trend. The latest reading has also returned firmly below zero.

This does not necessarily invalidate the broader recovery, since ETH can rise through demand from other venues and derivatives markets. However, a sustained move back above the zero line in the Coinbase Premium Index, particularly alongside a breakout above $2.5K, would provide additional confirmation that spot demand is strengthening, and that the recovery is likely to continue.

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