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Ethereum Price Faces 50% Breakdown Risk as DeFi TVL Slides

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Breakdown Structure Activated

The Ethereum price is down more than 5% over the past few days and has now slipped below a key short-term structure. On February 10, ETH fell under $1,980 after failing to hold a narrow rebound channel. This move followed a sharp decline in DeFi activity and weakening institutional flows. Yet, despite the pressure, large holders have started adding again.

The question is simple: is this early accumulation, or just a temporary pause before another leg lower?

Pattern Break Confirms Weak ‘Big Money’ Support

Ethereum’s recent rebound from early February formed inside a bear flag. This structure acted like a short-term recovery attempt, not a trend reversal. On February 10, the price slipped below the lower boundary of the flag, triggering a pattern break with over 50% crash potential, as predicted in a previous Ethereum analysis.

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This move mattered because it happened alongside weak money flow.

The Chaikin Money Flow, or CMF, measures whether capital is entering or leaving an asset using price and volume. When CMF moves above zero, it often shows large-scale institutional-style buying. When it stays below, it signals weak participation.

Between February 6 and February 9, ETH bounced, but CMF never crossed above zero. It also failed to break its descending trendline. This meant the rebound lacked strong backing from large investors.

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Breakdown Structure Activated
Breakdown Structure Activated: TradingView

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In simple terms, the price moved up, but serious money did not follow strongly enough. When rebounds happen without strong CMF backing, they tend to fail. That is exactly what happened here. Once buying momentum stalled, sellers regained control and pushed ETH lower.

This confirms that the pattern break was not random. It was possibly supported by fading big money flows. But technical weakness alone does not explain the full picture.

DeFi TVL and Exchange Flows Reveal a Structural Problem

A deeper issue sits inside Ethereum’s DeFi activity.

Total Value Locked, or TVL, measures how much money is stored inside decentralized finance platforms. It reflects real usage, capital commitment, and long-term confidence. When TVL rises, users are locking funds. When it falls, capital is leaving.

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BeInCrypto analysts combined the TVL and exchange flow dashboards to show a clear pattern.

On November 13, DeFi TVL stood at $75.6 billion. At the same time, ETH traded around $3,232. The exchange net position change was strongly negative, indicating more coins were leaving exchanges than entering. Investors were possibly moving ETH into self-custody.

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TVL Impacts Exchange Flows And Price
TVL Impacts Exchange Flows And Price: Glassnode

That was a healthy setup.

By December 31, TVL had dropped to about $67.4 billion. ETH fell to $2,968. Exchange flows flipped positive. Around 1.5 million ETH moved onto exchanges. Selling pressure increased. Now look at February.

TVL History And Rising Exchange Flow
TVL History And Rising Exchange Flow: Glassnode

On February 6, DeFi TVL touched a three-month low of $51.7 billion. ETH was near $2,060. Exchange outflows weakened sharply (the Net Position line reached a local peak). Even though net flows stayed slightly negative, buying pressure collapsed, as explained by the February 6 peak. This shows a repeating relationship.

When TVL falls, exchange inflows rise or outflows weaken. That means capital is shifting from long-term use toward potential selling.

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As of February 10, TVL has only recovered to around $55.5 billion, down almost $20 billion from the mid-November levels. That is still close to the three-month low. Without a stronger recovery, exchange-side pressure is likely to return. So the pattern break is happening while Ethereum’s core usage remains weak.

That is a structural problem, not just a chart issue.

Whale Accumulation and Cost Basis Explain the Ethereum Price Support

Despite weak technicals and falling TVL, whales have not fully exited.

Whale supply tracks how much ETH is held by large wallets, excluding exchanges. Since February 6, whale holdings fell from about 113.91 million ETH to nearly 113.56 million. That confirmed the distribution during the breakdown. But over the past 24 hours, this trend paused.

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Ethereum Whales
Ethereum Whales: Santiment

Holdings edged back up slightly, from 113.56 million ETH to 113.62 million, showing small-scale accumulation. This suggests that whales are testing support rather than committing fully.

The reason becomes clear when looking at cost basis data.

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Cost basis heat maps show where large groups of investors bought their coins. These zones often act as support because holders defend their entry prices. For Ethereum, a major cluster sits between $1,879 and $1,898. Around 1.36 million ETH were accumulated in this range. That makes it a strong demand zone.

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Cost Basis Heatmap
Cost Basis Heatmap: Glassnode

The current price is hovering just above this area.

As long as ETH stays above this band, whales have an incentive to defend it. Falling below would push many holders into losses and likely trigger heavier selling. This explains the cautious buying.

Whales are not betting on a rally. They are possibly protecting a critical cost zone.

From here, the Ethereum price structure becomes clear.

Support sits near $1,960 and then $1,845. A daily close below $1,845 would break the main cost cluster and confirm deeper downside risk. If that happens, the next major downside zones sit near $1,650 and $1,500.

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Ethereum Price Analysis
Ethereum Price Analysis: TradingView

On the upside, ETH must reclaim $2,150 to stabilize. Only above $2,780 would the broader bearish structure weaken. Until then, rebounds remain weak.

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Crypto World

Extreme FUD Persists on Social Media Despite BTC’s $60K Dip Recovery

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FUD Takes Over Crypto Social Media in Retail Selloff: Santiment 


Extreme FUD lingers after Bitcoin’s $60,000 rebound, with bearish social sentiment outweighing bullish posts.

Bitcoin (BTC) slipped back below $67,000 on Wednesday, February 11, extending a volatile stretch that began with last week’s drop to $60,000.

Despite that rebound from the lows, social data shows fear remains elevated, with traders split over whether the worst of the sell-off is over.

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Social Sentiment Stays Bearish as Volatility Spikes

Data shared by on-chain analytics firm Santiment shows a high ratio of bearish to bullish posts even after Bitcoin recovered from its $60,000 dip. According to the firm, retail traders seem hesitant to buy at current levels, while larger holders are facing less resistance in accumulating during periods of fear.

Santiment added that, historically, rebounds have often followed spikes in fear, though it did not claim this guarantees a bottom.

Meanwhile, short-term price action is still fragile, with market watcher Ash Crypto reporting that Bitcoin’s fall below $67,000 had liquidated roughly $127 million in long positions within four hours.

At the time of writing, market data from CoinGecko showed BTC trading around the $66,700 region, down about 3% in the last 24 hours and nearly 13% on the week. Over the past 30 days, the flagship cryptocurrency has fallen more than 27%, and it remains 47% below its October 2025 all-time high.

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The 24-hour range between $66,600 and $69,900 is a reflection of ongoing intraday swings, while weekly price action has spanned from about $62,800 to $76,500, showing just how unstable conditions are.

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Volatility metrics support that view, with Binance data cited by Arab Chain analysts showing that Bitcoin’s seven-day annualized volatility has climbed to around 1.51, its highest reading since 2022. However, 30-day and 90-day measures remain lower at 0.81 and 0.56, suggesting recent turbulence has not yet evolved into a sustained high-volatility regime. According to the analysts, the average true range as a percentage sits near 0.075, which historically has been a compressed level that often comes right before a larger directional move.

Bear Market Comparisons Resurface

An earlier report this week noted that Bitcoin has closed three consecutive weeks below its 100-week moving average, a pattern seen in previous bear markets. CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju wrote on February 9 that “Bitcoin is not pumpable right now,” arguing that selling pressure is limiting upside follow-through.

Other commentators, including Doctor Profit, have described the current structure as a wide consolidation range between $57,000 and $87,000, warning that sideways trading could precede another leg lower.

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Furthermore, macro data is adding to the cautious tone, with XWIN Research Japan writing that weaker U.S. retail sales and easing wage growth mean that consumption is slowing, which may weigh on risk assets in the short term. The firm also noted a persistently negative Coinbase Premium Gap since late 2025, suggesting there’s weak U.S. spot demand compared to derivatives-driven activity.

Yet not all industry voices are focused solely on price cycles, with WeFi’s Maksym Sakharov saying he believes Bitcoin sentiment will eventually strengthen despite falling prices, but for different reasons than in past rallies.

“I believe Bitcoin sentiment will turn even stronger despite the falling prices, but this time it won’t be only about price or speculation, but also about real adoption,” Sakharov said.

In the meantime, BTC is sitting in a narrow zone between fear-driven pessimism and technical support near $60,000, with traders watching whether high volatility resolves higher or breaks lower in the weeks ahead.

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Franklin Templeton to Let Tokenized Money Funds Back Binance Trades

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Franklin Templeton to Let Tokenized Money Funds Back Binance Trades

Global investment manager Franklin Templeton announced the launch of an institutional off‑exchange collateral program with Binance that lets clients use tokenized money market fund (MMF) shares to back trading activity while the underlying assets remain in regulated custody. 

According to a Wednesday news release shared with Cointelegraph, the framework is intended to reduce counterparty risk by reflecting collateral balances inside Binance’s trading environment, rather than moving client assets onto the exchange.

​Eligible institutions can pledge tokenized MMF shares issued via Franklin Templeton’s Benji Technology Platform as collateral for trading on Binance. 

The tokenized fund shares are held off‑exchange by Ceffu Custody, a digital asset custodian licensed and supervised in Dubai, while their collateral value is mirrored on Binance to support trading positions.​

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Franklin Templeton said the model was designed to let institutions earn yield on regulated money market fund holdings while using the same assets to support digital asset trading, without giving up existing custody or regulatory protections. 

Related: Franklin Templeton expands Benji tokenization platform to Canton Network

“Our off‑exchange collateral program is just that: letting clients easily put their assets to work in regulated custody while safely earning yield in new ways,” said Roger Bayston, head of digital assets at Franklin Templeton, in the release.​

Franklin Templeton and Binance Collaboration. Source: Franklin Templeton

The initiative builds on a strategic collaboration between Binance and Franklin Templeton announced in 2025 to develop tokenization products that combine regulated fund structures with global trading infrastructure. 

Off‑exchange collateral to cut counterparty risk

​The design mirrors other tokenized real‑world asset collateral models in crypto markets. BlackRock’s BUIDL tokenized US Treasury fund, issued by Securitize, for example, is also accepted as trading collateral on Binance, as well as other platforms, including Crypto.com and Deribit.

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That model allows institutional clients to post a low-volatility, yield‑bearing instrument instead of idle stablecoins or more volatile tokens.

Other issuers and venues, including WisdomTree’s WTGXX and Ondo’s OUSG, are exploring similar models, with tokenized bond and short‑term credit funds increasingly positioned as onchain collateral in both centralized and decentralized markets.

Related: WisdomTree’s USDW stablecoin to pay dividends on tokenized assets

Regulators flag cross‑border tokenization risks

Despite the trend of using tokenized MMFs as collateral, global regulators have warned that cross‑border tokenization structures can introduce new risks. 

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The International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO) has cautioned that tokenized instruments used across multiple jurisdictions may exploit differences between national regimes and enable regulatory arbitrage if oversight and supervisory cooperation do not keep pace.

Cointelegraph asked Franklin Templeton how the tokenized MMF shares are regulated and protected and how the model was stress‑tested for extreme scenarios, but had not received a reply by publication.

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