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EUR/USD Chart Analysis: Pair Trades Near Yearly Lows

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EUR/USD Chart Analysis: Pair Trades Near Yearly Lows

On 3 March, the EUR/USD pair fell below the January low (around 1.15777), establishing the lowest level of the year. As of today, 5 March, the chart shows signs of a continuation of bearish momentum.

On one hand, demand for the USD as a “safe-haven currency” remains elevated amid the ongoing military conflict in the Middle East.

On the other hand, the euro is under pressure because:
→ rising energy prices put the European Union at a disadvantage;
→ traders may be cautious ahead of today’s ECB news (Lagarde’s speech is scheduled for 20:00 GMT+3).

Technical Analysis of the EUR/USD Chart

On 19 February, we:
→ noted that bears held a certain advantage during February;
→ highlighted lower highs and lower lows at points A-B-C;
→ suggested a potential bearish scenario.

Since then, the downward movement has developed into a sequence A-B-C-D-E-F. Analysing the key patterns on the EUR/USD chart now allows us to construct a descending channel.

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In this context, yesterday’s bearish reversal (indicated by the arrow) is noteworthy, as it occurred:
→ in the 0.382–0.5 Fibonacci zone, indicating a weak recovery;
→ below the channel median, which acted as resistance.

Considering the above, it is reasonable to state that bears remain in control. Forex traders should not rule out further declines in EUR/USD towards a new yearly low (and a test of the lower boundary of the channel).

However, the long lower shadow at point F suggests aggressive demand around the psychological level of 1.15000, and market sensitivity to Middle East news could rapidly change sentiment.

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This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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Crypto World

Global X says double down on emerging markets

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Energy importers and exporters that could benefit from the war in the Middle East
Energy importers and exporters that could benefit from the war in the Middle East

It may be time to dive deeper into the emerging markets trade.

Despite risks tied to the war with Iran, Global X ETFs’ Malcolm Dorson points to weaker dollar trends and uncertainty at home as a tailwind for the group.

“It might be time to double down,” the firm’s senior portfolio manager told CNBC’s “ETF Edge.”

He expects a burst of U.S. war spending will soften the greenback, which jumped this week, and create a favorable backdrop for emerging markets.

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When asked about whether the dollar’s near-term strength could stick, Dorson responded, “for sure.”

However, it’s not his base case.

“A lot of people are trying to say this is going to be over in a week or two. We’re not sure,” he said. “However, I do think there are a lot of reasons to take advantage, to buy the dip here [in emerging markets.]”

As of Wednesday’s market close, the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) is off more than 5% week to date. It’s still up almost 37% over the past year.

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VettaFi’s Cinthia Murphy also sees advantages by putting money to work abroad and finds investors have grown accustomed to geopolitical noise.

“There is no question that international has been the flavor of the year,” the firm’s director of research said.

Murphy indicates energy is the area to watch if the Iran conflict becomes prolonged.

“European markets are super dependent on energy and oil coming out of the Middle East,” she said. “So, I think it could really shake things up a lot.”

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Murphy listed the United States Oil Fund (USO) as a potential way to play energy. It’s up 12% so far this week and up 32% this year, as of Wednesday’s close.

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US Bitcoin Reserve Has No Purchase Plans

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US Bitcoin Reserve Has No Purchase Plans

One year ago, US President Donald Trump signed an executive order establishing a strategic crypto stockpile. Now, one year later, its value has decreased by billions.

At the beginning of his administration, Trump formed a working group to study how the government could best implement and regulate crypto. This included the Bitcoin (BTC) and crypto reserves.

Much has happened since. The first year of the Trump administration brought a number of macroeconomic and policy changes. Some of these, like new, friendly regulations from Washington, have been good for crypto. Others, like punitive tariffs and geopolitical escalation, have not.

Now the US’ crypto stockpile sits, with its token reserves largely unchanged since its establishment.

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Little change in Trump’s crypto stockpile

On March 6, Trump formed the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and U.S. Digital Asset Stockpile by executive order.

The Bitcoin reserve would comprise solely that asset, while the crypto stockpile would be a diverse collection of altcoins. Ahead of the executive order, Trump said that it would include XRP (XRP), Solana (SOL) and Cardano (ADA).

Source: Donald Trump

Both would “not acquire additional assets for the U.S. Digital Asset Stockpile beyond those obtained through forfeiture proceedings.”

The order effectively consolidated the forfeited assets, which at the time were spread across many different federal regulatory and law enforcement agencies. According to the order, it would also create an opportunity for the government to capitalize on the seized crypto.

“Taking affirmative steps to centralize ownership, control, and management of these assets within the Federal government will ensure proper oversight, accurate tracking, and a cohesive approach to managing the government’s cryptocurrency holdings,” the order stated.

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The government does not publish the exact details of either the Bitcoin reserve or the crypto asset stockpile, but blockchain analysis firm Arkham Research has identified several blockchain wallets associated with the US government.

At publishing time, government crypto holdings are valued at $22,393,867,000, some $22 billion of which alone is Bitcoin. Other major holdings are stablecoin USDC (USDC), Ether (ETH), Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC) and BNB (BNB).

Data collected on March 4.

How much these assets constitute the formal stockpile itself, or how and whether they were moved, is still not public information. But the dollar value has fallen significantly. According to Arkham, the US’ cumulative holdings were worth over $30 billion when Trump signed the order. At publishing time, they are worth $22 billion, a 26% decrease.

The value of the US’ crypto portfolio has fallen significantly since March 2025. Source: Arkham

The White House appears unshaken by this. Deputy Press Secretary Kush Desai said regarding the recent price slump, “Volatility in a free market in which the government does not set prices is not going to change the Trump administration’s commitment to ensuring American dominance in cryptocurrency and other cutting-edge technologies of the future.”

Bitcoin token balance unchanged with no plans to buy

Despite hopes from Bitcoin maximalists that the US would start buying Bitcoin, the balance remains unchanged. Since the executive order, the US government has held 328,272 BTC.

US BTC holdings have remained flat since the reserve was established: Source: Arkham

The token balance of Ether, the next top asset by holdings in the US government’s portfolio, dropped off following the executive order, suggesting either an exchange or transfer. But after April 2025, the token balance stayed much the same.

Ether token balance. Source: Arkham

Tether’s USDt (USDT), the largest stablecoin by token balance in the US’ portfolio, saw a significant jump in May 2025 of over 200 million tokens, before decreasing to pre-March 2026 levels.

USDT token balance. Source: Arkham

These buying and selling patterns are not particularly clear. As noted above, the government makes no public disclosures about volumes.

While the new crypto reserve strategy did not completely preclude the government from buying Bitcoin, it required any purchases to be done in a budget-neutral fashion. AI and crypto czar David Sacks said last year, “It cannot add to the deficit, it cannot add to the debt, it cannot tax the American people.”

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“It won’t cost the taxpayer dimes, but if the secretaries can figure out how to accumulate more bitcoin without costing taxpayers anything, then they are authorized to do that.”

One year on, it isn’t clear how or whether the administration has developed such a strategy.

Jason Yanowitz, co-founder of crypto firm Blockworks, told the BBC last year that a crypto stockpile made of several different assets could negatively impact markets. “Without a clear framework, we risk arbitrary asset selections, which would distort the markets and drive a loss of public trust.”

“Ensuring transparency through independent audits and public reporting is crucial for fostering innovation instead of favouritism,” he said.

The idea of Bitcoin reserves, be they at the state or corporate level, grew last year following the success of software company-cum-Bitcoin investment vehicle Strategy. The narrative of Bitcoin as digital gold made holding the asset an attractive prospect for government budgets.

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According to data from tracking site BitcoinTreasuries.net, 10 countries hold Bitcoin, including the US, China, Ukraine, El Salvador, the United Kingdom and North Korea.

At the corporate level, analysts are expecting consolidation as the bear market continues. Wojciech Kaszycki, chief strategy officer of crypto infrastructure and treasury company BTCS, previously told Cointelegraph that companies with Bitcoin treasuries below net asset value will be acquired by operating businesses.

Bitcoin reserves are still a new idea that has yet to be tested in the depths of crypto winter.

Magazine: Bitcoin may face hard fork over any attempt to freeze Satoshi’s coins

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