February CPI Holds at 2.4% as Oil Shock Complicates Fed Rate Outlook

Published

5 hours ago

12 March 2026

Brian Armstrong's Bold Prediction: AI Agents Will Soon Dominate Global Financial

TLDR:

February CPI rose 2.4% YoY with core inflation at 2.5%, remaining above the Fed’s 2% target.
Monthly CPI growth slowed slightly, aided by stable vehicle prices and lower rental inflation.
Rising oil prices after the Iran conflict may push March inflation higher than February levels.
Weak payroll growth and higher unemployment complicate the Fed’s March 18 policy decision.

February CPI data showed stable inflation in the United States during February. The figures matched expectations and indicated slower price growth.

However, rising oil prices and weaker employment data now place the Federal Reserve in a difficult position before its March policy meeting.

February CPI Shows Cooling Trend Before Energy Shock

February CPI increased 2.4% compared with the same period last year. The figure matched January’s reading and aligned with market expectations.

Core inflation also remained steady at 2.5%, still above the Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation target. Monthly price growth reached 0.3% in February after a 0.2% increase in January.

Core CPI rose 0.2%, slightly lower than the previous month. Lower rental inflation and stable vehicle prices helped keep monthly increases relatively moderate.

🚨 THE FED JUST GOT THE PERFECT INFLATION REPORT, AT THE WORST POSSIBLE TIME.
February CPI came in at 2.4% YoY, exactly as expected.
Core CPI cooled to 0.2% MoM, down from 0.3% in January.
On paper, this looks like the report the Fed has been waiting for but this data may… pic.twitter.com/oH7KTqywLi
— Bull Theory (@BullTheoryio) March 11, 2026
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Some consumer categories still experienced rising costs. Grocery prices climbed 0.4% during February and rose 2.4% compared with a year earlier.

Clothing prices also increased sharply, rising 1.3% during the same month. Energy prices moved higher during February but remained manageable.

Gasoline prices increased 0.8% during the month yet remained lower than last year’s levels. These numbers represent conditions before the recent geopolitical conflict affected global energy markets.

Bull Theory noted the timing challenge surrounding the data release. The post stated that the Federal Reserve received the “perfect inflation report at the worst possible time.”

Oil Price Surge and Weak Jobs Data Complicate Fed Decision

Energy markets changed rapidly after the conflict involving Iran began near the end of February. Shipping disruptions in the Persian Gulf pushed oil prices sharply higher within days.

Energy costs, therefore, started rising after the February CPI measurement period ended.

Oil prices briefly approached $120 per barrel before falling back to near $87.

The market remains unstable because shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz face ongoing risks. Around 20% of global oil shipments normally pass through this route.

Fuel prices are already increasing in the United States. The national average price for regular gasoline reached about $3.58 per gallon.

That represents an increase of roughly 20% within one month. Higher fuel costs often affect transportation, logistics, and airline travel.

Businesses may also experience higher shipping expenses if energy prices remain elevated. Economists, therefore, expect fuel costs to influence inflation in the next report.

At the same time, labor market data shows signs of slowing. Payroll growth reached only 58,000 jobs in February, far below expectations of 126,000.

The unemployment rate also rose to 4.4%. The Bull Theory summarized that policymakers now face three signals: cooling inflation, weakening jobs, and rising energy costs.

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STRC May Help Strategy Get to 1 Million Bitcoin Faster, Beating BlackRock

Published

4 minutes ago

12 March 2026

NewsAdmin

STRC May Help Strategy Get to 1 Million Bitcoin Faster, Beating BlackRock

Michael Saylor’s Strategy (MSTR) may reach the 1 million Bitcoin (BTC) milestone faster than expected, potentially overtaking BlackRock in total holdings.

Key takeaways:

STRC share sales have generated cash to acquire over 3,500 BTC so far this week.
Strategy’s implied buying power could rise to roughly 5,700 BTC per day at Tuesday’s record pace.

*Strategy’s BTC holdings over time. Source:* *BitBo.IO*

Rising STRC demand implies 1,940 BTC of daily buying power

Strategy currently holds 738,731 BTC, including the 17,994 BTC purchase announced on Monday. Meanwhile, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) holds 775,156 BTC, or roughly 36,500 BTC more than Strategy today.

But a relatively new instrument, Strategy’s STRC preferred stock, is helping close that gap faster.

STRC currently pays an 11.50% annual dividend, distributed monthly in cash.

The dividend rate adjusts every month to encourage the stock to trade near its $100 par value, which helps limit volatility. Strategy uses the proceeds from the share sales to buy Bitcoin.

Just this week, Strategy is estimated to have purchased over 3,500 BTC after selling roughly 6 million STRC shares through its at-the-market (ATM) program, data resource STRC.LIVE shows.

*STRC’s volumes and BTC purchase estimates. Source: STRC.LIVE*

Among the top STRC buyers is Bitcoin investment firm Strive.

On Wednesday, chief risk officer Jeff Walton said they acquired $50 million in STRC, noting that the allocation would generate about $5.75 million in annual income at STRC’s current yield.

That is higher than roughly $1.85 million from 13-week T-bills, a difference of about $3.90 million per year.

On Tuesday, STRC logged a record $409 million daily volume and a $138.5 million 30-day average.

Using the $138.5 million average daily trading volume and a Bitcoin price near $71,000, STRC could theoretically buy roughly 1,940 BTC per trading day, more than four times Bitcoin’s daily mined supply.

On days when STRC trading approaches its $409 million record, the implied buying power rises to around 5,700 BTC, or nearly 13 times daily mining supply.

At this rate, Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings can surpass the 1 million BTC mark by August, likely leaving behind BlackRock as well.

MSTR may tap $145.1 trillion fixed-income market

STRC may soon start competing with the traditional fixed-income markets, according to analyst Adam Livingston.

Global fixed-income markets outstanding reached $145.1 trillion in 2024, and US fixed income outstanding was $48.9 trillion as of Q3 2025, Livingston said in a Wednesday post, adding:

“If products like STRC eventually attract even 0.1% of global fixed income outstanding, that is $145.1 billion. At $71.2K per Bitcoin, that amount of capital would be enough to buy roughly 2.04 million BTC, purely as a scale illustration.”

STRC still carries risk for investors

In its disclaimer, Strategy warned that STRC doesn’t guarantee returns, noting that it is “neither a bank deposit, nor FDIC insured, nor regulated in the same way.”

Additionally:

“It does not have the same regulatory and other protections as bank accounts, money market funds, treasuries, or similar instruments and as a result may not be a comparable investment.”

Strategy Analyst ColinTalksCrypto also warned that STRC can cut the dividend, its share price can fall below its $100 par value, and Strategy can issue more shares that dilute existing holders.

I’ve been seeing a lot of euphoric bullposting about $STRC.
It’s an interesting financial product, but I will be the black sheep and state that I personally feel it’s too risky of an investment.$STRC doesn’t really give you any guarantees (despite seeming like guaranteed fixed…
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— 𝙲𝚘𝚕𝚒𝚗 𝚃𝚊𝚕𝚔𝚜 𝙲𝚛𝚢𝚙𝚝𝚘 🪙 (@ColinTCrypto) March 10, 2026