Key takeaways

• Stellar (XLM) remains under pressure despite a modest rebound following last week’s sharp correction.
• Derivatives data shows a bearish bias, with long-to-short ratios below 1 and funding rates turning negative for the asset. 

Stellar (XLM) remained under pressure on Tuesday despite staging a modest recovery following last week’s steep market-wide correction. 

Weak derivatives positioning and mixed on-chain signals suggest that recent gains may be corrective rather than the start of a sustained bullish reversal.

Market data indicates traders continue to favor downside exposure, reinforcing a cautious outlook for both assets.

Derivatives markets signal growing bearish sentiment

Recent derivatives data from CoinGlass points to increasing pessimism among traders. The long-to-short ratio for XLM fell to 0.73 on Tuesday, approaching its lowest readings in more than a month. 

A ratio below 1 indicates that short positions outweigh long positions, highlighting expectations for further price declines.

The bearish bias is further reflected in funding rates. XLM’s funding rate turned negative on Monday and continued trending lower into Tuesday. 

Negative funding rates indicate that short sellers are paying long-position holders, a sign that traders are increasingly positioning for downside movement.

CryptoQuant’s market summary data presents a mixed but slightly negative outlook for XLM. Data shows elevated activity across both spot and futures markets, with increased retail participation and buy-side dominance. 

While rising buying activity may seem positive, overheated market conditions often precede short-term pullbacks, limiting the potential for a sustained recovery.

Stellar price forecast: Momentum begins to fade

Stellar is trading near $0.195 on Tuesday, holding above its 50-day and 100-day EMAs at $0.182 and $0.179, respectively.

While this positioning supports a neutral-to-slightly bullish short-term outlook, XLM continues to face resistance at the 200-day EMA near $0.198.

Technical indicators suggest momentum is cooling. The RSI sits near 45, indicating balanced market conditions. The MACD has slipped below the zero line, signaling weakening bullish momentum and raising the risk of another downside move if buyers fail to regain control.

If the rally resumes, immediate resistance lies at the 200-day EMA at $0.198, with the next upside target at $0.226

However, if the sellers stay in control, initial support is seen at $0.185, with the next level at the 50-day EMA at $0.182.

A daily candle close below these levels would expose lower support zones at $1.79 and $1.43.

Bitcoin (BTC) slipped to week-to-date lows as markets opened on Tuesday, with traders eyeing the $65,000 region as the threshold bulls must clear to regain momentum. The early session underscored a cautious mood ahead of the key US inflation print, as BTC hovered near notable support levels.

Data from TradingView showed BTC down about 1.2% on the day, after a double rejection near $64,200 set the stage for another test of the $60,000 area. The persistent struggle at the $65,000 mark has kept bulls on the back foot even as the broader market awaits new cues.

Key takeaways

• 65k hurdle remains critical for bulls: A break above $65,000 could trigger a renewed rally toward the $72,000–$74,000 zone, according to well-known market analyst Michaël van de Poppe.
• Bear-market patterns resurface: Analysts note BTC has already fallen through or near several classic bear-market markers, including the 50-month exponential moving average and a triangle support pattern, echoing characteristics seen in 2018 and 2022.
• Macro backdrop softens near-term mood: Oil markets moved lower as Iran peace momentum reemerged, while US indices traded higher in early action, underscoring a mixed macro backdrop for risk assets including crypto.
• Last week’s macro low remains a reference point: Traders highlight the bound near $59,100 as part of the ongoing debate about how much further downside is possible in the current cycle.
• Oil volatility and crypto correlations: WTI crude slipped below $88 per barrel, marking a June-like low, while equities opened with gains, illustrating the complex, sometimes divergent, macro forces shaping crypto sentiment.

BTC price action: bear-market echoes and key levels

Bitcoin’s Tuesday session unfolded with selling pressure building ahead of a fresh read on inflation data in the United States. A 1.2% drop on the day left BTC testing the lower boundary of the recent range, with a notable rejection at about $64,200 raising the risk of a test of the critical $60,000 support floor.

Analysts have been weighing the implications of the current price action against historical bear-market pathways. Michaël van de Poppe, a trader and analyst known for his market theses, emphasized that breaking the $65,000 barrier is essential for shifting the momentum back in favor of the bulls. “Bitcoin is stalling beneath $65K; breaking that level would trigger a strong run to $72K–$74K,” he explained, underscoring the level’s role as a resistance pivot after a February decline.

“The $65K support level was the previous level of support after the crash early in February and is now acting as the resistance to break through.”

Another influential voice in the space, Rekt Capital, drew comparisons between the present pattern and past cycle bottoms. He pointed to two hallmarks—loss of the 50-month EMA and a breach of a triangle support—that occurred in 2018 and 2022. “Now Bitcoin needs to fully confirm this breakdown to enter additional Bearish Acceleration to the downside,” he remarked in a recent update. The broader takeaway is that the market is watching for a decisive move beyond a few pivotal levels before signaling a durable trend reversal.

Those watching the macro landscape note that last week’s dip to around $59,100 remains a point of reference. While some participants view the recent selloff as irrational by some measures, the current setup suggests that traders will seek a clear breakout—above $65,000 or below the lower bounds of the nearby range—to confirm the next phase of the cycle.

Macro backdrop: oil moves, Iran peace momentum and market timing

In contrast to the crypto market’s tug-of-war, traditional markets opened with a cautious tilt, as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose by roughly 1% in early trading. The broader mood was tempered by ongoing macro narratives, including calls for peace in broader geopolitical tensions and the related impact on energy markets.

Oil prices moved notably lower in early trade, with WTI crude slipping under $88 per barrel and hitting its lowest level since late May. The move came as Iran peace momentum re-entered the market narrative, contributing to a volatile energy backdrop that can ripple through risk assets, including crypto, in the near term.

Market chatter also drew on a widely reported quote attributed to former US President Donald Trump, who was described by Al Jazeera and other outlets as saying that “It’ll happen very soon, and oil prices will come tumbling down” in a tele-rally focused on a Republican candidate. While the tone underscored hopes for easing energy costs, the immediate market reaction remained nuanced, with equities rising while crude prices retreated.

The confluence of these macro threads—energy-price moves, inflation expectations, and geopolitical headlines—helps explain why BTC’s price action continues to contrast with pockets of risk-on appetite in traditional markets.

Looking ahead, traders will be watching how BTC behaves around the $65,000 threshold and whether the 50-month EMA can stabilize or give way to further downside. The upcoming inflation print remains a key catalyst, with market participants parsing the central bank signal as part of a broader assessment of risk assets. As always in crypto, the next moves will hinge on the balance of technical confirmations and macro developments.

Readers should keep an eye on whether BTC can reclaim $65,000 and establish a convincing higher-low, while also monitoring whether the oil and inflation narrative supports a broader risk-on tilt or keeps the market in a cautious, data-driven posture.

Key takeaways

• WLD is down by more than 3% in the last 24 hours and could dip lower in the near term. 
• Derivatives metrics remain supportive, with WLD’s Open Interest rising steadily alongside a mildly growing number of long positions.

Worldcoin (WLD) has declined by more than 3% on Tuesday, trading below $0.50 while holding above a cluster of key Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). 

Strengthening derivatives activity and favorable technical indicators suggest the token may have room to extend its recent recovery in the near term.

Rising open interest signals growing market confidence

Data from CoinGlass shows that Worldcoin futures Open Interest (OI) has climbed to $406.86 million, up from $377.25 million recorded on Sunday. 

The metric has been trending higher since mid-May, indicating fresh capital is flowing into the market.

An increase in OI is typically viewed as a sign of growing trader participation and can reinforce ongoing price trends. In WLD’s case, the surge suggests investors are increasingly positioning for additional upside.

Adding to the bullish narrative, CoinGlass data shows the WLD long-to-short ratio has recovered to 1.01. 

A reading above 1 indicates that long positions slightly outnumber shorts, reflecting a market bias toward higher prices. Continued improvement in this ratio could further strengthen bullish sentiment.

Despite the positive derivatives backdrop, some cautionary signals are emerging. According to CryptoQuant’s market summary data, both spot and futures markets are experiencing elevated retail participation and increasingly heated trading conditions. 

The data also points to sell-side dominance, suggesting profit-taking activity could limit the pace of any further gains.

These factors may create short-term headwinds even as broader sentiment remains constructive.

Worldcoin price forecast: Bulls defend key support levels

Worldcoin was trading near $0.509 at the time of writing, maintaining a bullish technical structure above a dense cluster of EMAs.

The 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level near $0.504 has emerged as immediate support, sitting just below the current market price. 

Meanwhile, the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day EMAs remain beneath the market, providing a strong support zone stretching from the upper-$0.30 range to the mid-$0.40 area.

Momentum indicators continue to favor buyers. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands near 53, indicating strong bullish momentum while remaining below overbought levels.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains in positive territory, signaling that upward momentum is still intact.

If the downtrend continues, immediate support lies at $0.459 (200-day EMA). A daily candle close above this level could expose WLD to lower levels at the mid-$0.30 area near the 100-day and 50-day EMAs

However, if the rally resumes, initial resistance lies at $0.567, with the next target at $0.676 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement).

Worldcoin’s improving derivatives metrics, rising Open Interest, and bullish technical setup continue to support a positive near-term outlook. 

While elevated retail participation and selling pressure warrant caution, maintaining support above the $0.50 region could pave the way for a move toward the $0.567 and $0.676 resistance levels in the sessions ahead.

Higher by more than 1% at the open, the Nasdaq has turned decidedly lower just ahead of the noon hour on the East Coast, now down 1.9% and below its close on Friday.

The S&P 500 is off by 1% and the DJIA is down 0.5%.

Declines are being led by AI favorites like Nvidia, Intel, and Micron, all lower by 2%-4%.

The drop can’t be blamed on Middle East tensions as crude oil is at a session low, down 4% to $87.58 per barrel. Gold and silver are also taking part in the quick dive, each dropping more than 2% over roughly the past hour.

Bitcoin (BTC) is also near its session low at $61,300.

With the AI trade leading losses, bitcoin miners turned AI infrastructure players are all sharply lower. Hut 8 (HUT) is down 6.3%, MARA Holdings (MARA) 4.9%, and IREN (IREN) 8%.

BlackRock is closely watching Wednesday’s May U.S. inflation report for the first clear signal of how the U.S.-Iran conflict is feeding into already sticky prices.

“We look to May U.S. inflation figures for a clearer read on how the Mideast conflict energy shock is impacting already sticky inflation. The full breadth of the shock has yet to show and will depend on how it evolves,” BlackRock Investment Institute said in its weekly market commentary.

The U.S. consumer price index (CPI) for May is scheduled for release on Wednesday at 08:30 am ET. Economists polled by Reuters forecast that the CPI jumped 4.2% year-on-year, the sharpest increase since April 2023 and up from 3.8% in April.

The expected acceleration would mark another reminder that inflation remains stubbornly above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, reinforcing the prospect that the Fed’s next move could be an interest rate hike rather than cuts, as markets were expecting early this year.

Higher borrowing costs typically disincentivize investing in risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. In other words, the expected CPI increase could add to bearish pressure in the crypto market. Bitcoin has already taken a beating last week, falling nearly 14% to under $60,000.

A major risk factor, according to BlackRock, is the possibility of a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz stretching into July. Such a disruption would push the energy shock into the forefront of inflation dynamics, especially as U.S. oil inventories could fall to their lowest levels in four decades.

“We think a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz into July could bring the impact of the shock to the fore more prominently, especially as U.S. oil inventories potentially hit four-decade lows,” the firm said.

Crypto investment firm Paradigm has urged the U.S. Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation to remove provisions from its proposed stablecoin framework that could restrict third-party firms from offering rewards tied to stablecoins.

According to a comment letter submitted to the FDIC, Paradigm argued that the agency’s interpretation of the GENIUS Act goes beyond the law approved by Congress. The firm stated that while the legislation bars stablecoin issuers from paying yield directly to holders, it does not prohibit independent third parties from distributing rewards linked to stablecoin activity.

“Nothing in the statutory text can be read to expand the yield prohibition to ‘related third parties’ or to authorize an agency’s presumption that the yield prohibition reaches those entities.”

Paradigm said the FDIC should withdraw what it described as an expansion of the statute or align its approach with proposals already put forward by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the National Credit Union Administration.

The firm also asked the regulator to establish an enforcement cure period that would protect compliant issuers from unintended violations.

The dispute comes as lawmakers continue work on the CLARITY Act, a separate crypto market structure bill that preserves activity-based stablecoin rewards offered by third-party companies such as exchanges. Several digital asset firms, including Ripple and Coinbase, have recently called on Congress to advance the legislation to a floor vote.

Paradigm says Congress rejected similar restrictions

Within its filing, Paradigm pointed to the legislative history of the GENIUS Act and argued that Congress had already considered and declined proposals that would have extended restrictions on stablecoin rewards to outside firms.

According to the company, nothing in the law authorizes the FDIC to presume that third-party reward programs violate the statute. Paradigm stated that lawmakers deliberately limited the prohibition to stablecoin issuers rather than distributors or other service providers.

Part of the disagreement centers on how stablecoins are distributed through the crypto ecosystem. Activity-based rewards have become common among exchanges and fintech platforms that use stablecoins for payments, transfers, or customer incentive programs.

Earlier feedback submitted by Consensys raised similar concerns. In a separate filing reported by crypto.news, the blockchain software company argued that parts of the FDIC proposal could capture ordinary commercial arrangements involving distribution partners and brand licensing agreements. Consensys also cited legislative discussions surrounding the GENIUS Act, stating that lawmakers ultimately abandoned efforts to extend remuneration restrictions to third parties.

Other proposed rules draw industry scrutiny

Beyond the yield issue, Paradigm challenged several operational requirements contained in the FDIC proposal.

The company urged the agency to preserve white-label stablecoin arrangements, arguing that requiring separate reserve pools, accounts, and compliance systems for every branded stablecoin would create unnecessary burdens. Instead, Paradigm recommended allowing subledgering practices similar to those proposed by the OCC.

Recognition of tokenized reserve assets formed another part of the firm’s submission. Paradigm asked the FDIC to follow the OCC’s approach and formally accommodate such assets within the regulatory framework.

Reporting requirements also drew criticism. According to Paradigm, weekly supervisory reports would impose high fixed costs on issuers. The firm recommended monthly reporting and asked regulators to define reporting categories directly in the rule text rather than through forms that could later be revised without public consultation.

Questions about how failed institutions would be handled under the GENIUS Act remain unresolved as well. Paradigm stated that the law does not clearly identify which agency would oversee the resolution of a national trust bank, prompting the company to request additional guidance from the FDIC.

Paradigm joins a growing list of industry participants weighing in on the proposed rules. Alongside Consensys, USDC issuer Circle has also submitted comments, urging regulators to clearly distinguish payment stablecoins from tokenized bank deposits.