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Fundstrat’s Tom Lee says ‘the bottom is in’ for stocks, paving a bull case for bitcoin, ether

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Fundstrat's Tom Lee says 'the bottom is in' for stocks, paving a bull case for bitcoin, ether

Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee is calling the bottom on the stock market, a prediction that, if correct, would flow directly into bitcoin , ether (ETH) and the broader crypto market given how the asset classes tend to correlate.

The macro strategist said that the Iran ceasefire meant “the bottom is in” for the stock market, and that a break above the S&P 500’s 200-day moving average at 6,617 would trigger “a decisive move higher,” in a CNBC appearance on Wednesday.

E-mini futures were already trading at 6,820 by Thursday morning, well past his trigger.

Lee’s framework rests on two points. First, stocks rose from mid-March through early April even as oil climbed from $87 to $116 and the war escalated. The S&P 500 moved from 6,300 to 6,600 while conditions were getting worse, meaning equities were absorbing war risk without breaking.

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Second, the ceasefire is what he calls a “positive rate of change inflection.” Even if the truce is not definitive, the shift from escalation to de-escalation produced a 2.5% equity rally, a 15% oil crash, and VIX below 20 in one session.

Bitcoin and the broader crypto market are direct beneficiaries of a bottom in equities.

BTC’s surge past $72,000 late on Wednesday came alongside S&P 500 futures jumping 1.9%. Every major risk-on move since the war began has been a cross-asset trade where stocks, metals and crypto move in concert on the same geopolitical catalyst.

A sustained equity recovery doesn’t just help crypto sentiment, but removes the macro headwind that has kept bitcoin pinned in a $65,000 to $73,000 range for six weeks.

The onchain setup supports the timing. Bitcoin’s realized price sits at $54,286, 21% below its spot price, the closest approach to the metric that historically defines cycle bottoms outside of outright crashes.

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The Fear and Greed Index spent the past month in single digits, the most bearish sustained reading since the 2022 bottom. ETF inflows held at roughly 50,000 BTC per month through March despite the extreme sentiment, as CoinDesk reported.

The bull case has additional legs for ether (ETH) specifically. The Ethereum Foundation completed its 70,000 ETH staking target last week, putting $143 million to work generating yield rather than selling into the market, a shift the community had demanded for years.

Spot ether ETF flows flipped positive on Monday with $120 million in inflows, the highest since mid-March. And network fundamentals around tokenization and agentic AI infrastructure continue to build regardless of price action.

Tom Lee is also chairman of Bitmine Immersion Technologies (BMNR), the largest corporate ether holder on earth with 4.8 million ETH worth roughly $10 billion. Bitmine bought 71,252 ETH last week, its biggest single-week purchase since December 2025, and is actively targeting 5% of total ether supply. Every percentage point of ether appreciation adds roughly $100 million to the company’s treasury.

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Lee may well be right about the bottom, but he also has one of the largest financial incentives in the industry for the market to agree with him.

That test comes quickly, however. Iran’s parliament said late Wednesday that three clauses of the ceasefire have already been breached. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, and oil rebounded 2% to $97 on Thursday after Wednesday’s 15% plunge.

If the truce unravels, the bottom call unravels with it and both equities and crypto retest the lows.

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Crypto World

South Korea Court Cancels Dunamu Suspension Over FIU Case

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South Korea Court Cancels Dunamu Suspension Over FIU Case

A South Korean court has canceled the Financial Intelligence Unit’s (FIU) three-month partial business suspension of Dunamu, the operator of crypto exchange Upbit, according to local reports.

Yonhap News Agency reported on Tuesday that the Seoul Administrative Court sided with Dunamu in its lawsuit against the FIU, overturning the sanction tied to alleged Anti-Money Laundering (AML) violations. 

The court said clear rules existed for transactions above 1 million won (about $675), but found that regulations for smaller transfers were not specific enough, weakening the basis for enforcement within the case. 

The ruling narrows the FIU’s ability to impose major AML sanctions on crypto exchanges where the underlying compliance standards are not spelled out clearly enough in practice. It also ends a dispute that began after FIU imposed the sanction in February 2025, and that was later paused by the court while Dunamu’s challenge was under review.

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Court cites lack of guidance in Dunamu decision

Addressing the FIU’s claim that Dunamu failed to take adequate measures, the court said the regulator had not provided specific guidance on what actions were required. In that context, the court found that the company had taken its own measures. 

The court said that even if those measures appear insufficient in hindsight, it is difficult to conclude that Dunamu failed to fulfill its obligations due to intent or gross negligence, undermining the basis for the sanction. 

Related: Bithumb launches legal action to recover 7 Bitcoin from payout error

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FIU sanction triggered a legal challenge from Dunamu

On Feb. 25, 2025, the FIU imposed a three-month partial suspension on Dunamu, restricting new Upbit users from transferring digital assets. 

The regulator said the measure followed an on-site inspection that found Dunamu had facilitated transactions with unregistered overseas virtual asset providers (VASPs) and failed to meet customer due diligence requirements. 

The FIU previously said it identified over 600,000 suspected Know Your Customer violations during a review of Upbit’s exchange business license. 

In response to the sanction, Dunamu filed a lawsuit and requested an injunction to halt its enforcement shortly after the penalty was announced. On Feb. 28, 2025, Dunamu said it had submitted the case seeking to overturn the partial suspension order.

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On March 27, 2025, the court granted the injunction, allowing Upbit to continue onboarding new users while the case was under review. 

Magazine: Asia Express: Phantom Bitcoin checks, China tracks tax on blockchain