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Crypto World

Galaxy Digital cuts CLARITY Act odds as Senate clock runs down

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Polymarket chart showing the probability of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 falling to 41%.

Galaxy Digital has lowered its estimated probability of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 to 50%, citing a shrinking Senate calendar and the absence of visible legislative progress ahead of the August recess.

Summary

  • Galaxy Digital has lowered its estimated odds of the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 to 50%, citing Senate scheduling delays rather than policy disagreements.
  • Polymarket traders now assign only a 41% chance of the CLARITY Act becoming law this year as legislative momentum weakens.
  • Galaxy said a July floor vote commitment and release of the final Senate bill could improve the legislation’s prospects.

According to a research note from Galaxy Digital, Head of Research Alex Thorn reduced the firm’s previous 60% estimate after concluding that time, rather than the contents of the bill, has become the biggest obstacle to passage.

Thorn wrote that the lack of public developments has become a signal in itself, arguing that negotiations have yet to produce the milestones normally expected before a floor vote.

While the Senate Banking and Agriculture Committees have been working on a combined version of the legislation, Galaxy noted that lawmakers have not released the merged text or announced a debate schedule. Thorn wrote that staff-level discussions remain constructive but cautioned that private negotiations should not be mistaken for legislative momentum without a public voting timetable.

Separately, data from Polymarket shows traders currently assign about a 41% chance that the CLARITY Act will be signed into law in 2026, indicating growing skepticism over the bill’s prospects.

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Polymarket chart showing the probability of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 falling to 41%.
Source: Polymarket

Senate calendar has become the biggest hurdle

As the Senate remains adjourned until July 13, the available legislative window before the August recess has narrowed further. As previously reported by crypto.news, Representative Anna Paulina Luna said Senate Majority Leader John Thune secured unanimous consent for the adjournment, meaning no senator objected to the extended break.

Luna criticized the decision and said she would not vote to reopen the House floor until senators return to Washington. Her comments came as the CLARITY Act continues waiting for Senate floor time after advancing onto the chamber’s legislative calendar.

Galaxy argued that competition for Senate floor time has intensified following President Donald Trump’s decision to tie his support for a bipartisan housing bill to passage of the SAVE Act. According to Thorn, lawmakers must also address other priorities, including FISA legislation and the annual National Defense Authorization Act, leaving limited time for crypto market structure legislation.

Calling the legislative calendar the primary concern, Thorn wrote that the downgrade is tied to scheduling rather than disagreements over the bill itself. He added that the remaining runway before the August recess has been reduced to only a matter of weeks, making floor time the Senate’s scarcest resource.

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Policy debates continue alongside procedural delays

Apart from scheduling pressures, several policy issues also remain unresolved. Galaxy noted that ethics provisions continue to divide lawmakers even after a conflict-of-interest amendment was removed during committee consideration. Thorn also pointed to ongoing requests from law enforcement organizations seeking revisions to developer protections contained in the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act.

Earlier this week, the U.S. Department of Justice rejected concerns raised by four national law enforcement organizations, stating that the CLARITY Act would not reduce prosecutors’ ability to investigate crimes involving digital assets. The organizations had argued in a June 23 letter that Section 604 and related exemptions could create regulatory gaps that criminals might exploit, while the Justice Department said the legislation would not weaken investigations into offenses including terrorism financing, drug trafficking, and human smuggling.

Meanwhile, Senator Cynthia Lummis has said the Senate expects to release the final CLARITY Act text around July 4 for public review before seeking floor consideration later in July. According to crypto.news, if the Senate amends the House-approved version, both chambers would still need to reconcile the legislation before sending it to the president.

Galaxy said several developments could improve the bill’s prospects, including publication of a unified Senate text, resolution of the remaining policy disputes, and, most importantly, a leadership commitment to schedule a July floor vote.

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Thorn added that such an announcement within the next two weeks could lift the firm’s estimated odds back to 60% or higher, while continued silence into mid-July would likely lead to another downgrade.

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Bitcoin ETF Outflows Hit $696M as Regulators Brace for Market Shift

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Crypto Breaking News

US-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) posted their largest June daily net outflows on Thursday, following renewed weakness in Bitcoin that pushed the asset below the $60,000 level. The withdrawals underscore a cooling in demand that many US-listed ETF investors previously relied on as a stabilizing institutional inflow channel.

SoSoValue data shows the outflows amounted to $696.3 million on the day, exceeding the prior monthly peak of $519.2 million recorded on June 2. As a result, total net outflows for June rose to $3.61 billion, lifting year-to-date net outflows to $4.6 billion, according to the same dataset.

Key takeaways

  • US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a $696.3 million net outflow on Thursday, the largest daily outflow in June.
  • June net outflows reached $3.61 billion, bringing year-to-date net outflows to $4.6 billion (SoSoValue).
  • Total net assets in US spot Bitcoin ETFs fell below $73 billion for the first time since late 2024, down roughly 57% from a reported October 2025 peak.
  • Separate tracking data indicates ETF BTC holdings declined by about 63,500 BTC over the past 30 days.
  • Strategy’s reported June buying pace slowed materially, prompting renewed scrutiny of institutional accumulation risk management and liquidity planning.

Spot Bitcoin ETF outflows accelerate in June

The Thursday withdrawals represent a material step-down in net inflows that had been supporting ETF balance sheets earlier in the year. According to SoSoValue, the $696.3 million net outflow surpassed the previous June high daily outflow recorded on June 2, signaling that the pullback is not confined to isolated days.

From a compliance and institutional risk perspective, sustained outflows can affect how ETF issuers and their service providers manage operational readiness and liquidity across custody, brokerage settlement, and fund administration. While ETFs remain structurally distinct from crypto spot custody models used by direct holders, the flow-through effect on the underlying Bitcoin exposure can become relevant to internal risk controls, including contingency planning for valuation, margining arrangements (where applicable), and concentration monitoring.

ETF net assets and holdings retrace from late-2025 highs

In addition to daily flows, broader balance-sheet data points to a sustained contraction in the ETF complex. SoSoValue reports that total net assets in US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs have fallen below $73 billion for the first time since late 2024. The same source previously cited a record net assets level of $169.5 billion in October 2025; the latest figure is about $72.6 billion, representing a decline of roughly 57%.

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WalletPilot data provides a view into the underlying Bitcoin holdings. It indicates that the funds held a combined 1.24 million BTC as of Tuesday, with approximately 63,500 BTC leaving the products over the prior 30 days. For institutions, the shift from flow-based indicators to holdings-based indicators is often critical: daily net flows can reverse quickly, but reductions in the total BTC held can influence longer-horizon risk assessments related to custody balances, redemption dynamics, and exposure to market-wide volatility.

Strategy’s slower accumulation draws renewed attention

ETF outflows are occurring alongside signs that other large sources of institutional Bitcoin demand are easing. Strategy, described as the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin holder, reportedly reduced its pace of Bitcoin accumulation during June.

Company filings indicate Strategy has bought roughly 3,600 Bitcoin so far in June, down from about 25,000 BTC in May and more than 50,000 BTC in April. The filings also show a net sale of 32 BTC earlier in the month—one of the few instances in which the company has sold Bitcoin during its accumulation period.

The change in behavior has prompted renewed debate about corporate treasury strategy, particularly whether liquidity preservation becomes a priority during market downturns. Critics have argued that Strategy should pause additional purchases and instead rebuild cash reserves, pointing to the importance of downside risk management for firms that rely on balance-sheet leverage and equity-linked financing structures.

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In June’s context, institutional scrutiny is not limited to “buy or sell” decisions. It also extends to how capital is raised, how discount rates and equity market conditions influence treasury financing, and what liquidity buffers are maintained to support continued operations. These issues can indirectly affect how regulated counterparties—such as lenders, underwriters, and custodians—assess operational continuity.

Financing-market pressure and the preferred stock debate

Strategy’s perpetual preferred stock (STRC) has reportedly come under pressure. The stock has traded below its intended $100 benchmark level, with Thursday’s close reported at $75.69, down 6.37%.

The price movement has fueled discussion around whether the company’s preferred share financing approach is aligned with its long-term accumulation plan under stressed market conditions. CryptoQuant analysts raised concerns about timing and risk management, while Bitcoin advocate Samson Mow argued that STRC has a “self-repairing mechanism” that activates when the stock trades below its $100 benchmark. He also noted that Strategy pauses new share issuance through its ATM program at that level, limiting new supply.

For institutional stakeholders, this debate matters because financing mechanics can influence the predictability of future purchasing behavior. Where issuance programs and preferred-stock terms include triggers or constraints, equity-market volatility can propagate into accumulation schedules—creating uncertainty for counterparties that model corporate Bitcoin demand. It also raises questions for governance and disclosure oversight, particularly for firms subject to securities regulation and investor reporting obligations.

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More broadly, policy compliance teams monitoring the crypto market may find it useful to connect these developments to regulatory context. US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs operate under a mature set of investor protection expectations, including custody arrangements and securities-law compliance frameworks. At the same time, corporate treasuries and their financing instruments intersect with conventional financial regulation, making transparency and risk disclosures a recurring theme for oversight bodies.

What to watch next

Whether ETF outflows continue or reverse will likely remain the near-term indicator that shapes institutional exposure to Bitcoin via regulated wrappers. Separately, Strategy’s future acquisition cadence and any further changes in financing-market conditions could affect expectations for corporate demand, reinforcing the need for monitoring of disclosures, treasury liquidity posture, and the operational implications of sustained reductions in net asset growth.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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Securities Probe Lands on Strategy as MSTR Sinks and STRC Slips Below Par

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Securities Probe Lands on Strategy as MSTR Sinks and STRC Slips Below Par


Rosen Law Firm opened a securities investigation into Strategy Inc., examining whether the Bitcoin treasury company issued materially misleading disclosures to investors across its entire capital stack, including common shares and all four series of preferred stock. The investigation notice,… Read the full story at The Defiant

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Bitcoin Price In Rare Historical Value Zone After $58K Sell-Off: Data

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Bitcoin Price In Rare Historical Value Zone After $58K Sell-Off: Data

Bitcoin’s (BTC) drop to $58,000 has pushed the price into a zone that long-term power-law models have historically associated with cycle bottoms. The data does not confirm a bottom range, though it shows BTC trading in a price range that has repeatedly marked major lows since 2014. 

Derivatives data and liquidation levels highlight $55,000 as the next key support level and the $65,000-$68,000 range as the next major upside area of interest. 

Bitcoin power-law puts $58,000 in historical range

Giovanni’s Bitcoin power-law model places the network’s long-term trend price near $135,000, making the recent drop to $58,000 roughly 54% below the all-time high and 1.22 standard deviations beneath that trend.

According to the analyst, the key takeaway is straightforward: the previous cycle lows in 2012, 2015, 2019, 2020, and 2022 all fell within a similar statistical range. By that measure, the latest decline falls within a territory that has historically marked the deep bear-market lows rather than a break in Bitcoin’s long-term growth path.

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Bitcoin price deviation based on the power-law trend. Source: X

The model estimates the commonly referenced “-1σ” support near $68,000, while the stronger historical floor sits closer to $55,000. Giovanni also noted that Bitcoin would need to trade below roughly $17,000 for more than a year before the power-law itself could be considered invalid.

A second metric points in the same direction. Bitcoin’s power-law quantile has fallen to 6.2%, indicating the asset is cheaper than roughly 94% of its historical observations when measured against the power-law model. The chart highlights similar readings during the 2015, 2020, and 2023 cycle lows, with the current market now revisiting that historically rare valuation zone.

Bitcoin power-law quantile regression chart. Source: Checkonchain

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Related: Bitcoin drops to $58K on high US PCE inflation as trader sees ‘manipulation’

Key BTC price levels to watch

Bitcoin fell to a new yearly low of $58,000 after aggressive selling swept through Binance. The hourly taker sell volume reached $2.1 billion, followed by another $1.9 billion in the next hour after the New York market open, marking the exchange’s largest hourly sell pressure since May 4.

Bitcoin taker sell volume on Binance. Source: CryptoQuant

The flush liquidated more than $300 million in long BTC positions before the price rebounded toward $60,000. That level now carries added significance. A daily close back above $60,000 preserves the developing relative-strength index (RSI) bullish divergence across the one-hour, four-hour, and daily time frames which signals that selling momentum is fading even as the price prints lower lows.

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BTC/USDT, one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Futures trader Byzantine General shared a similar outlook, saying the move to $58,000 cleared out leveraged longs while drawing in fresh short sellers. In his view, a daily close above $60,000 would strengthen the case that Bitcoin has printed a local bottom for now. 

That would also shift attention toward a large pocket of upside liquidity. More than $4 billion in short liquidations cluster near $65,000, compared with about $1 billion below $55,000, creating a four-to-one imbalance. A relief rally could then target internal liquidity near $68,000, where a daily fair-value gap adds another area of interest for traders. 

BTC liquidation map. Source: CoinGlass

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Meanwhile, a daily close below $60,000 reinforces the bearish bias on both the short-term and long-term charts. The next area of interest then shifts to $55,000, where Bitcoin’s September 2024 weekly range low converges with its realized price near $54,000. 

The realized price, which tracks the average cost basis of all onchain coins, has historically provided support at every major Bitcoin bear-market bottom since 2014. That trend makes the $54,000-$55,000 region a key level for traders to watch if selling pressure continues. 

Bitcoin’s realized price. Source: X

Related: Bitcoin drop to $58K brings out bears: Is BTC’s next stop below $50K?

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Tether's USDT Closes In on Ether for No. 2 Crypto Spot by Market Cap

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Tether's USDT Closes In on Ether for No. 2 Crypto Spot by Market Cap


Tether's USDT has drawn level with ether, narrowing the gap for the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization to a fraction of a percent. The stablecoin briefly overtook ether earlier this month, the first time a dollar-pegged token has done so. USDT carried a market cap of about… Read the full story at The Defiant

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XRP price forms multi-month falling wedge near $1 support as liquidations mount

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Daily XRP chart showing a multi-month falling wedge with MACD and Aroon indicators near key $1 support.

XRP has fallen to its lowest level in months after a sharp selloff driven by a major derivatives flush and fresh pressure across the crypto market, while technical charts now show the token testing the lower boundary of a long-term falling wedge.

Summary

  • XRP has fallen toward the key $1 support after a $10.8 billion crypto options expiry triggered heavy market-wide selling.
  • A multi-month falling wedge and oversold momentum indicators suggest the token is nearing a critical technical inflection point.
  • Analysts warn a break below $1 could expose lower support zones, while reclaiming $1.10 would improve the bullish outlook.

According to data from crypto.news price, XRP (XRP) price dropped from around $1.07 on June 25 to $1.01 on June 26, extending its year-to-date decline to more than 40%. The decline accelerated as a $10.8 billion crypto options expiry triggered heavy volatility across digital assets and forced a wave of long liquidations.

At the same time, sentiment surrounding the XRP ecosystem weakened after decentralized finance protocol Strobe Finance abruptly announced it would shut down operations.

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The selling pressure arrived as investors also reduced exposure to risk assets following stronger expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve could keep interest rates higher for longer. Bitcoin’s slide below the $60,000 level removed another layer of support for altcoins, leaving XRP among the weaker large-cap tokens during Thursday’s session.

XRP approaches long-term support as liquidation clusters build overhead

The daily chart shows XRP trading at the lower edge of a falling wedge that has contained price action for almost a year. The pattern has compressed between descending resistance and gradually declining support, with the token now sitting close to the wedge’s lower boundary near $1.00.

Daily XRP chart showing a multi-month falling wedge with MACD and Aroon indicators near key $1 support.
XRP price has formed a multi-month falling wedge on the daily chart — June 26 | Source: crypto.news

Momentum indicators remain weak. The MACD has stayed below its signal line with histogram bars still in negative territory, while the Aroon indicator continues to favor sellers after Aroon Down climbed back toward 100 and Aroon Up remained subdued. Together, the indicators suggest bears still control the short-term trend even as XRP price approaches a historically important support zone.

The four-hour chart presents another important technical level. XRP has retraced almost the entire advance measured by the displayed Fibonacci range and now trades just above the 100% retracement near $1.01. Price also remains below the Supertrend resistance around $1.10, while the RSI has slipped to nearly 31, placing momentum close to oversold territory but without confirming a bullish reversal.

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4-hour XRP chart showing price testing Fibonacci support with RSI near oversold and Supertrend resistance overhead.
XRP 4-hour price chart — June 26 | Source: crypto.news

Derivatives positioning also highlights where volatility could increase next. CoinGlass liquidation heatmap data show large concentrations of leveraged positions clustered between roughly $1.05 and $1.08, while another sizable liquidity pocket sits around the $1.02 area. Those zones could attract price in either direction as traders compete for liquidity, increasing the likelihood of sharp short-term swings.

XRP 24-hour liquidation heatmap highlighting major leverage clusters around $1.02-$1.08.
XRP liquidation heatmap | Source: CoinGlass

On-chain positioning has also drawn attention to nearby support. According to well-followed analyst Ali Martinez, UTXO Realized Price Distribution data identify $1.06 as a major accumulation level where more than 830 million XRP previously changed hands.

“XRP is testing a major volume block at $1.06…If the market drops below this level, the next core support targets are $0.80, $0.62 and $0.51.”

Bears retain control while lower demand zones come into focus

Several downside risks could still invalidate any recovery attempt. A sustained move below the wedge support around $1.00 would break one of XRP’s longest-running chart structures and could expose lower historical demand zones identified by both technical and on-chain data.

Commenting on the latest structure, crypto analyst ChartNerd noted that XRP has entered an area of interest after weeks of decline but warned that losing the current support would shift attention toward the $0.90-$0.70 range, where previous buying activity was concentrated.

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Any recovery will also depend on conditions outside the XRP market. Additional institutional outflows from crypto investment products, another round of heavy derivatives liquidations, or stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data that reinforce expectations for restrictive Federal Reserve policy could extend pressure across digital assets.

Conversely, reclaiming the $1.10 region and breaking above the falling wedge resistance would be the first technical signal that buyers are regaining control.

Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.

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Strategy Executives Issue Coordinated Investor Reassurances as STRC Hits Record Lows

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Strategy Executives Issue Coordinated Investor Reassurances as STRC Hits Record Lows


At least three Strategy officials published coordinated investor reassurances Friday morning, as bitcoin traded around $59,600 and the company's STRC preferred shares languished near record lows of $73-75. Executive Chairman Michael Saylor, bitcoin executive Chaitanya Jain and President and CEO… Read the full story at The Defiant

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Securitize Expects $400M Raise Ahead of US Debut

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Securitize Expects $400M Raise Ahead of US Debut

Tokenization platform Securitize says it expects to raise $400 million in its upcoming public debut through a merger with a company backed by Cantor Fitzgerald. 

Securitize said on Friday that its final redemption results showed less than 30% of shareholders in Cantor Equity Partners II (CEPT), the special purpose acquisition company that will take Securitize public, had elected to redeem.

The company said it expects to receive approximately $400 million in gross proceeds from the merger, including related private investment in public equity, or PIPE, financings and excluding transaction-related expenses.

Securitize is set to be the latest buzzy crypto-related public debut as Wall Street seeks exposure to tokenization, an area that is seeing heightened investor interest and attention from US regulators.

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Shares in Cantor’s acquisition vehicle rose on Friday, closing the trading day up 7% to $10.86 and continuing to rise after-hours to $11.

CEPT shares climbed on Friday as Securitize announced fewer shareholder redemptions than expected. Source: Google Finance

The merger between Securitize and CEPT is expected to close on Wednesday, July 1, subject to shareholder approval on Monday and other closing conditions, and the company will then trade under the ticker SECZ on the New York Stock Exchange on Thursday, July 2.

“Reaching the public markets is a significant milestone for Securitize and a reflection of the growing momentum behind tokenization,” said Securitize co-founder and CEO Carlos Domingo.

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Source: Carlos Domingo

“When we started more than eight years ago, the idea that major institutions would embrace tokenized securities was still largely theoretical,” Domingo added. “Today, tokenization is moving into the mainstream.”

Related: Franklin Templeton, BNP Paribas see tokenization boosting EU’s capital efficiency 

Securitize is backed by major institutions, such as BlackRock and Morgan Stanley, and crypto firms, including Coinbase and Circle, and has carved out a lead in the tokenization sector, where assets are represented on blockchains.

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The company partnered with the New York Stock Exchange in March to create tokenized assets for the exchange’s upcoming tokenized securities platform,

Standard Chartered said earlier this month that it expects the amount of tokenized assets active in decentralized finance to grow 37-fold to $2.7 trillion by the end of 2030.

In mid-May, the US Securities and Exchange Commission was reportedly ready to allow trading of tokenized stocks, but delayed the plan later that month after stock exchange officials raised concerns over how it would be implemented.

Magazine: Bitcoin slides to $58K, XRP hits $1 but onchain data promising: Market Moves

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Brad Garlinghouse slams Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin funding strategy

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Brad Garlinghouse slams Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin funding strategy

Brad Garlinghouse has criticized Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin acquisition strategy, arguing that Strategy’s reliance on preferred stock financing has failed to create lasting value as its securities continue to weaken.

Summary

  • Brad Garlinghouse criticized Strategy’s Bitcoin funding model, arguing long-term value should come from utility rather than financial engineering.
  • Growing scrutiny of Strategy includes a shareholder investigation, insider share sales, and CryptoQuant’s call to preserve cash.
  • Anchorage Digital said investors remain defensive, but options markets are not signaling expectations of a company-specific crisis.

According to comments made during a CNBC interview on Friday, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse criticized Michael Saylor’s approach to financing Bitcoin purchases through Strategy’s capital markets program, saying long-term value in crypto should come from real-world utility rather than financial engineering.

Questioning whether the model can continue rewarding shareholders over time, Garlinghouse argued that issuing securities to fund additional Bitcoin purchases does not create sustainable value. He added that Strategy’s focus on financial structuring has had negative consequences for the digital asset market.

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“Financial engineering does not drive long-term value … long-term value of any digital asset is going to be driven by utility.”

Although he challenged Strategy’s funding model, Garlinghouse maintained that he remains bullish on Bitcoin itself. His comments came as Bitcoin briefly traded below $60,000 on Friday, extending pressure across companies closely tied to the cryptocurrency.

Strategy’s preferred stock has come under pressure

Garlinghouse pointed to Strategy’s STRC preferred shares as evidence that investors are becoming more cautious about the company’s financing structure. He noted that the preferred stock has fallen roughly 25% below its $100 face value, describing the decline as a sign that investors are questioning the sustainability of the approach.

Strategy has spent roughly the past year raising capital through preferred securities, including STRC, to finance additional Bitcoin purchases. The instrument also carries an 11.5% cumulative annual dividend obligation, leaving the company with continuing dividend commitments alongside its expanding Bitcoin treasury.

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At the same time, scrutiny has widened beyond Garlinghouse’s criticism. Earlier this week, on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant recommended that Strategy pause further Bitcoin purchases and instead strengthen its cash reserves as market conditions remain difficult.

Additional pressure has emerged from legal developments. As crypto.news reported previously, Rosen Law Firm has opened an investigation into whether Strategy made materially inaccurate business disclosures to investors. According to the firm, it is evaluating potential securities claims and considering a possible class action lawsuit on behalf of shareholders who suffered losses.

Investor scrutiny has continued despite mixed market signals

Selling by company insiders has added another layer to investor concerns. SEC filings show Strategy director Jarrod Patten exercised options to acquire 1,500 Class A shares on June 23 before selling the entire position the same day at $106.08 per share, generating an estimated pre-tax gain of about $131,766.

The latest transaction extends a months-long selling streak. Regulatory filings indicate Patten has sold 55,750 Strategy shares over the past three months for roughly $9 million in proceeds, with the sales taking place as investors continue debating the company’s reliance on repeated share issuance and leveraged Bitcoin accumulation.

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Even so, derivatives markets are not signaling expectations of an immediate company-specific crisis. According to new research from Anchorage Digital, traders continue paying elevated premiums for downside protection across Bitcoin, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust and Strategy shares, but options pricing remains well below levels seen during previous periods of severe stress.

Anchorage Digital’s head of research, David Lawant, wrote that while defensive positioning has risen into the upper range of historical readings, Strategy’s options market has not reached the conditions normally associated with forced deleveraging or fears of a breakdown in the company’s business model.

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Ripple is becoming a bank. What it means for XRP

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Ripple, JPMorgan settle a tokenized Treasury on XRPL

A conditional national trust bank charter, a pending Federal Reserve master account, and a string of acquisitions in brokerage, payments, and treasury. Ripple is assembling a full regulated-finance stack. The benefits flow first to its stablecoin and the company itself. What is left for XRP is the question.

Summary

  • Ripple has assembled a full regulated-finance stack: a conditional national trust bank charter, a pending Federal Reserve master account bid, and acquisitions in prime brokerage, payments, and treasury services.
  • The charter and master account primarily benefit RLUSD, Ripple’s stablecoin, whose reserves would sit under federal and state oversight, not XRP directly.
  • A national trust bank cannot take ordinary deposits or carry federal deposit insurance, so the real prize is direct access to Federal Reserve payment rails and custody of its own stablecoin reserves.
  • For XRP, the benefit is indirect: a more legitimate, bank-grade Ripple strengthens the whole ecosystem and XRP’s role as a bridge asset, but it creates no direct token-demand mechanism.
  • This is the same pattern that defined XRP through 2026, in which Ripple’s wins flow first to the company and RLUSD, with the token benefiting slowly, if at all.

Ripple is turning itself into a bank, or something very close to one, and it is doing it methodically.

Over the past year the company won conditional federal approval to operate a national trust bank, applied for a Federal Reserve master account that would give it direct access to the central bank’s payment systems, and bought its way into prime brokerage, payments, and corporate treasury services through a series of acquisitions.

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Add the dollar stablecoin it already issues, the 70-plus regulatory licenses it holds around the world, and a fresh European license that lets it passport services across 30 countries, and the picture is unmistakable.

A company once known mainly for a cross-border payments network and a controversial token is assembling the full apparatus of a regulated financial institution.

For XRP holders, who have watched the token grind sideways near a dollar through a year of Ripple triumphs, the natural question is what all of this means for them.

The honest answer is more complicated, and more sobering, than the headlines suggest, because almost every piece of Ripple’s banking build benefits the company and its stablecoin first, and the token only indirectly.

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This piece works through Ripple’s transformation into a regulated financial institution and what it actually delivers for XRP. It covers the banking stack Ripple is assembling, what a national trust bank can and cannot do, the real prize of a Federal Reserve master account, why the charter is mostly a stablecoin story, what genuinely accrues to XRP, the bull case within the bank build, and what holders should watch.

The goal is to separate the real significance of Ripple becoming a bank, which is considerable for the company, from the wishful assumption that everything good for Ripple is automatically good for the token, which 2026 has repeatedly shown to be false.

A payments company is turning into a financial institution

Take the full measure of what Ripple has built, because the strategy only becomes clear when you see the pieces together.

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The foundation is a conditional charter to operate a national trust bank, granted by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, the federal regulator that supervises national banks. The OCC conditionally approved Ripple National Trust Bank alongside other crypto firms in a broader wave of national trust bank approvals.

That federal approval matters because it moves Ripple deeper into the regulated banking perimeter without turning it into an ordinary retail bank.

A subsequent rule expanded what such trust banks are allowed to do, turning what would have been a narrow custody license into something with real operational scope, including digital-asset custody, stablecoin reserve management, and certain payment services.

On top of the charter, a Ripple subsidiary applied for a Federal Reserve master account, the account that would connect Ripple directly to the central bank’s payment rails.

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And around that regulatory core, Ripple has been buying capabilities: a prime brokerage, a payments business, and a corporate treasury-services firm, each acquisition adding a piece of the institutional-finance stack.

Layer in the rest and the ambition is obvious. Ripple issues a dollar-pegged stablecoin that has grown past $1 billion in market value.

It holds dozens of regulatory licenses across jurisdictions, and it recently secured preliminary European authorization that lets it offer regulated services across the entire European Economic Area.

That is where Ripple’s European license fits into the larger build. The company is not only chasing U.S. banking access; it is trying to make its regulated-finance stack portable across major markets.

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Taken individually, any one of these is a notable corporate step. Taken together, they describe a single, coherent strategy: to become the institutional infrastructure layer for crypto-native finance.

Ripple wants to be a regulated entity that banks and corporations can trust to custody assets, manage stablecoin reserves, settle payments, and connect to both the traditional financial system and the blockchain world.

Ripple is not dabbling in banking. It is building a bank-grade financial institution deliberately, piece by piece.

The question for a token holder is where, in all of this carefully assembled machinery, XRP actually fits.

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What a national trust bank is, and what it is not

Before assessing what the charter means for XRP, it is worth being precise about what a national trust bank actually is, because the word “bank” carries connotations the charter does not deliver.

A national trust bank is not a retail bank. It cannot take ordinary deposits, cannot offer checking or savings accounts, and does not carry federal deposit insurance, the protection that backs ordinary bank deposits.

What it can do is custody assets, provide fiduciary and trust services, manage reserves, and, under the expanded rule, handle digital-asset custody and certain payment-related functions.

Headlines that say “Ripple becomes a bank” are gesturing at something real, but they compress away an important distinction.

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That distinction matters for understanding the charter’s purpose. Ripple’s trust bank exists primarily to serve Ripple’s stablecoin business.

Its core planned function is to custody and manage the reserve assets that back the stablecoin, which today are held through a separate trust entity, and to provide custody to institutional clients.

By bringing reserve management in-house under a federal charter, Ripple gains tighter control, removes reliance on third-party custodians, and obtains a regulatory standing that few stablecoin issuers can match: oversight at both the federal level, through the national chartering regulator, and the state level, through New York’s financial regulator.

That dual supervision is a genuine selling point to institutions weighing whether to trust Ripple’s rails.

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This is also why the fight over trust charters matters. Senator Elizabeth Warren and banking groups have challenged the idea that crypto firms with OCC trust charters should be treated like bank-grade institutions, arguing that they could act like crypto banks without the same restrictions.

The crypto industry has pushed back. The Digital Chamber called on the OCC to uphold crypto trust bank charters for firms including Coinbase, Ripple, Circle, and BitGo, arguing that the charters are part of bringing digital assets into regulated finance rather than keeping them outside it.

But notice what the trust bank does not do. It does not custody XRP for the benefit of XRP holders, does not create any obligation to buy or hold the token, and does not make XRP a bank deposit or a regulated bank instrument.

It is, at its heart, infrastructure for the stablecoin, which is the recurring theme of Ripple’s entire banking build.

The real prize: a Federal Reserve master account

The most consequential piece of Ripple’s banking strategy is the one furthest from being secured: a Federal Reserve master account.

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A master account is the account a financial institution holds directly with the central bank, and it is the gateway to the core of the financial system.

It allows direct settlement through the central bank’s payment networks, the same rails the largest banks use, and direct access to base money rather than balances held at a commercial bank.

For a stablecoin issuer, the prize is enormous. With a master account, Ripple could hold the reserves backing its stablecoin directly at the central bank, the safest possible place, eliminating the counterparty risk of relying on private banks and giving institutions far greater confidence in the stablecoin’s solvency and redemption safety.

That is why custody and reserve safety matters so much in this story. Stablecoins are only as trusted as the assets backing them, the institutions holding those assets, and the transparency around redemption.

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The catch is that no crypto-native firm has ever received full access of this kind on ordinary terms, and the bar is extraordinarily high.

The central bank has historically been reluctant to extend master accounts to non-traditional institutions. Uninsured trust banks face the most stringent levels of review, and previous attempts by crypto-adjacent firms to win access have often failed or taken years.

Ripple’s subsidiary has applied, and the application remains pending, with no public timeline and no clear signal of when or whether the central bank will act.

Approval would be genuinely transformative. It would mark a deeper integration between a crypto-native company and the core U.S. financial system, and it would dramatically strengthen the institutional credibility of RLUSD.

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But it is far from assured. Even in the optimistic case, the direct beneficiary is again the stablecoin and the company’s settlement capabilities, not the token.

A master account would let Ripple hold stablecoin reserves at the central bank and settle through its rails. It would not, by itself, create demand for XRP.

The prize is real, and the prize is mostly about everything except the token.

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Why this is mostly a stablecoin story

Step back and a clear pattern emerges from every piece of Ripple’s banking build: it is, overwhelmingly, a stablecoin story.

The trust charter exists primarily to custody and manage stablecoin reserves. The master account, if granted, would primarily benefit the stablecoin by letting its reserves sit at the central bank.

The European license primarily expands where Ripple can offer regulated payment and stablecoin services. The acquisitions in brokerage, payments, and treasury primarily build out an institutional settlement and services business in which the stablecoin is the natural cash leg.

Ripple’s dollar stablecoin has grown past $1 billion, expanded across multiple blockchains, and won approvals in multiple jurisdictions. The banking apparatus is being constructed largely to support and legitimize it.

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That is why the RLUSD the bank serves is the center of the story. A stablecoin is useful to institutions precisely because it is designed to hold a steady dollar value while moving across crypto rails.

Ripple’s own reserve-transparency page also shows why this matters. The company is trying to make RLUSD look less like an experimental crypto product and more like a regulated dollar instrument with transparent backing, regular attestations, and bank-grade custody.

This is the same dynamic that defined XRP through 2026, when Ripple’s marquee bank deals and settlement milestones ran through its stablecoin and ledger while the token captured little beyond a negligible network fee.

As previously reported, this is why Ripple wins bypass the token. Ripple can deepen its institutional footprint while XRP still waits for direct, measurable token demand.

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The banking build is that dynamic taken to its logical conclusion. Ripple is constructing a regulated financial institution whose central purpose is to make its stablecoin the most trusted, most institutionally credible dollar token in the market, and to build a settlement and custody business around it.

XRP is part of the broader ecosystem, but it is not the thing the bank is for.

A holder hoping that the charter, the master account bid, and the acquisitions would translate into direct demand for the token is, once again, watching the wrong variable.

The value of all this machinery flows first to Ripple the company and to the stablecoin it is built to serve, exactly as Ripple’s own communications have acknowledged in noting that the banking progress is unlikely to move the token’s price directly or immediately.

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So what do XRP holders actually get?

If the bank build is mostly about the stablecoin, the fair question is whether XRP holders get anything at all.

The honest answer is yes, but indirectly and slowly. The benefit to XRP runs through legitimacy and ecosystem strength rather than any direct mechanism.

As Ripple becomes a regulated, bank-grade financial institution, the entire ecosystem it anchors gains credibility in the eyes of the banks and corporations Ripple wants as customers.

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A more trusted Ripple makes every part of its stack, including the ledger on which XRP lives and the role XRP can play, more palatable to institutional users.

The argument, which Ripple and many holders make, is that demand for one asset in an ecosystem can lift others in the same stack, and that a Ripple wired into the core of the financial system is a Ripple better positioned to drive real-world use of XRP as a bridge asset over time.

This indirect benefit is not nothing, and it would be a mistake to dismiss it. XRP’s most plausible long-term role is as a bridge asset that moves value between currencies in settlement.

A Ripple with a federal charter, a master account, and a credible institutional settlement business is a Ripple with more opportunities to route that kind of settlement in ways that touch the token.

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But the benefit is conditional, gradual, and unguaranteed, three qualities that make it very different from the direct, immediate boost holders often hope for.

XRP does not become a bank deposit, a stablecoin, or a regulated instrument through any of this. It remains a separate, volatile asset whose demand depends on whether Ripple’s growing institutional infrastructure eventually channels real settlement volume through it.

The competing path is obvious: the same settlement volume could instead keep flowing through RLUSD, which is better suited to settlement precisely because it does not move in price.

The banking build improves the odds that Ripple can win regulated institutional business someday. It does not make that business flow through XRP now, and it does not create token demand on its own.

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The bull case within the bank build

In fairness to the optimistic view, there is a coherent bull case for XRP buried inside Ripple’s banking transformation, and it deserves a clear statement.

The strongest version goes like this: Ripple is methodically removing every reason an institution might hesitate to build on its rails.

The charter answers the custody and reserve-management question. The master account, if granted, answers the reserve-safety question at the highest possible level.

The acquisitions answer the brokerage, payments, and treasury questions. The licenses answer the regulatory question across jurisdictions.

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As those barriers fall one by one, Ripple becomes a place where serious institutions can conduct serious volume. In a world where Ripple is running large-scale regulated settlement, the case for using XRP as the neutral bridge asset between currencies strengthens, because the infrastructure to do it at scale finally exists and is trusted.

Pair that with the token’s other tailwinds, including the regulatory clarity from its resolved legal status, the spot exchange-traded funds gathering assets, and the prospect of federal legislation codifying its commodity classification, and the bull case becomes clearer.

That is where the legislation that could codify XRP fits in. If the CLARITY Act turns XRP’s commodity treatment into durable federal law, it could make institutions more comfortable using the token where it has a genuine settlement role.

In that version of the future, XRP sits inside a maturing, increasingly bank-grade ecosystem at exactly the moment that ecosystem becomes capable of institutional-scale activity.

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If even a fraction of the settlement flowing through a fully built-out Ripple touches XRP as a bridge, the demand could be meaningful, and it would arrive on top of a token that has already cleared its regulatory hurdles.

This is a real argument, and it is why the banking build is truly good news for the long-term XRP thesis even though it is not a direct catalyst.

The caveat, as always, is the word “if.” The bull case depends on Ripple choosing and managing to route settlement through the token rather than through the stablecoin, and the entire pattern of 2026 suggests the stablecoin keeps winning that role.

The infrastructure being built is real. Whether XRP is wired into it is the open question.

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What XRP holders should watch

For a holder trying to judge whether Ripple’s banking transformation will ever translate into token demand, the analysis points to a few specific signals worth tracking, none of which is another charter or acquisition headline.

The first is the Federal Reserve master account decision.

If granted, it would be a landmark for Ripple and the stablecoin, and it would mark the company’s deepest integration into the financial system. Over time, that expands the surface area where XRP could be used.

If denied, a key piece of the institutional thesis stalls.

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Either way, it is the most consequential pending item, and its outcome shapes everything downstream.

The second and more important signal is whether XRP actually appears in the settlement flows of Ripple’s bank-grade business, as opposed to the stablecoin doing all the work.

This is the variable that decides the entire question. If Ripple’s institutional settlement increasingly routes through XRP as a bridge asset, generating real, recurring token demand, then the banking build will finally have reached the token.

If, as has been the pattern, the stablecoin carries the settlement while XRP captures only a fee, then the bank is a Ripple and stablecoin story with XRP riding the halo of legitimacy but not the flows.

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The third signal is the broader regulatory picture, particularly whether federal legislation codifies XRP’s status, which would compound the legitimacy the banking build provides.

The honest synthesis is that Ripple becoming a bank is a major, genuine achievement that strengthens the company, the stablecoin, and the long-term credibility of the whole ecosystem.

For XRP specifically, it improves the odds without delivering the goods.

The token’s payoff depends on a future choice, to run regulated settlement through XRP, that Ripple has not yet shown it will make.

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Until it does, the bank is being built for everything except the token, and the token, as it has all year, waits.

Frequently asked questions

Is Ripple actually becoming a bank?

Sort of, but with important caveats. Ripple won conditional federal approval to operate a national trust bank and applied for a Federal Reserve master account, and it has acquired prime brokerage, payments, and treasury businesses. But a national trust bank is not a retail bank: it cannot take ordinary deposits, offer checking or savings accounts, or carry federal deposit insurance. It is a specialized institution for custody, fiduciary services, and reserve management. So Ripple is building a bank-grade regulated financial institution, but one focused on custody and stablecoin reserves instead of traditional deposit-taking banking.

What is the Federal Reserve master account and why does it matter?

A master account is an account held directly with the central bank, giving direct access to its payment rails and to base money, the same access the largest banks have. For Ripple, it would let the company hold its stablecoin’s reserves directly at the central bank, the safest possible location, eliminating reliance on private banks and boosting institutional confidence in the stablecoin. No crypto-native firm has ever been granted full access of this kind on ordinary terms, the review is stringent, and Ripple’s application is pending with no timeline. Approval would be transformative for the company and stablecoin, though not a direct catalyst for XRP.

Does Ripple’s banking push help XRP?

Indirectly and gradually, not directly. The charter and master account primarily benefit Ripple’s stablecoin, whose reserves they would custody and secure. XRP does not become a deposit, a stablecoin, or a regulated instrument. The benefit to XRP runs through legitimacy: a bank-grade Ripple strengthens the whole ecosystem and improves the odds that XRP is eventually used as a bridge asset in regulated settlement. But that is conditional and slow, not the direct demand boost holders often hope for, and Ripple itself has acknowledged the banking progress is unlikely to move the token’s price immediately.

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Why does the stablecoin benefit more than XRP?

Because the entire banking build is designed around the stablecoin. The trust charter exists mainly to custody and manage stablecoin reserves. The master account, if granted, would let those reserves sit at the central bank. The acquisitions build a settlement business in which the stablecoin is the natural cash leg. A stablecoin is suited to settlement precisely because it holds a steady value, while XRP’s volatility makes it less suitable for that role. So Ripple’s regulated infrastructure naturally channels value to the stablecoin, with XRP benefiting only as part of the broader, more credible ecosystem.

What is the bull case for XRP in all this?

The bull case is that Ripple is methodically removing every reason an institution might hesitate to use its rails, through the charter, the master account bid, the acquisitions, and the licenses. As those barriers fall, Ripple becomes capable of large-scale regulated settlement, and the case for using XRP as a neutral bridge asset between currencies strengthens because the trusted infrastructure to do it finally exists. Combined with XRP’s regulatory clarity, its ETFs, and possible federal legislation, the bull case is that XRP sits inside a maturing, bank-grade ecosystem just as that ecosystem becomes capable of institutional-scale activity. The caveat is whether settlement actually routes through XRP instead of the stablecoin.

What should XRP holders watch next?

Three things. First, the Federal Reserve master account decision, which would mark Ripple’s deepest integration into the financial system and expand where XRP could be used, or stall a key part of the thesis if denied. Second, and most important, whether XRP actually appears in the settlement flows of Ripple’s institutional business, generating real token demand, as opposed to the stablecoin doing all the work. Third, the broader regulatory picture, especially whether federal legislation codifies XRP’s commodity status. The token’s payoff depends on Ripple choosing to route regulated settlement through XRP, a choice it has not yet shown it will make.

This article is information, not investment advice. Cryptocurrency is volatile, and regulatory approvals, corporate plans, and figures reflect reporting available as of June 26, 2026, which can change quickly. Verify current data from primary sources before making any decision.

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Meta hires Oasis founder Dawn Song for AI safety push

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Oasis Network (ROSE) price chart, source: crypto.news

UC Berkeley professor and Oasis Labs founder Dawn Song has joined Meta Superintelligence Labs as vice president of AI research. 

Summary

  • Dawn Song joins Meta, bringing Oasis privacy experience to frontier AI safety and security work.
  • Virtue AI members are joining Meta as MSL builds safety tools for agentic AI systems.
  • ROSE remains near record lows, showing Song’s AI move has not revived Oasis token demand.

She said she will help lead Meta’s AI safety and AI security efforts. Song announced the move in a post on X. She said several members of the Virtue AI team will also join Meta. Axios also reported that Virtue AI co-founders Bo Li and Sanmi Koyejo are among the hires.

Song said her work at Meta will focus on frontier AI models and agentic AI systems. She wrote that AI must be “secure, trustworthy, and beneficial” if it is to reach its full use.

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The move gives Meta more senior talent in AI security. It also brings a well-known blockchain privacy researcher into one of the world’s largest AI labs.

Virtue AI team moves to MSL

Virtue AI was founded in 2024 to build tools for trustworthy AI. Song said the team worked on AI security, agent security, benchmarks and open platforms before the Meta move.

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According to Axios, Meta is hiring several Virtue AI leaders and team members. The report said the group worked on automated red teaming, runtime guardrails and AI governance.

Meta’s interest comes as AI labs put more attention on agent safety. AI agents can take actions, use tools and handle tasks across software systems. That makes security more important because errors or misuse can spread across real products.

As previously reported, Meta has been building a superintelligence AI team after its large Scale AI deal. The company wants to improve its AI models and ship them across Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp and other products.

Oasis background adds crypto angle

Song is also known in crypto as the founder of Oasis Labs. The company raised $45m in 2018 to build privacy-first cloud computing on blockchain. Its backers included a16zcrypto, Accel and Binance Labs.

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The Oasis project later became tied to the Oasis Network and the ROSE token. The network focuses on confidential computing, data privacy and privacy-preserving applications.

In a previous article, crypto.news discussed Oasis Protocol’s verifiable AI agents for crypto trading. The project used trusted execution environments to keep strategies private while giving users proof of how agents behave.

Previously, crypto.news explored Oasis-based AI and data services through Pontus-X, a platform built around privacy and data control. Song’s Meta role connects that same privacy and security theme to a much larger AI platform.

ROSE remains near record lows

The hiring news has not changed ROSE’s weak market setup. Oasis traded near $0.0059 on June 26, close to its intraday low. That is about 99% below its all-time high near $0.596.

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Oasis Network (ROSE) price chart, source: crypto.news
Oasis Network (ROSE) price chart, source: crypto.news

ROSE has also struggled with the broader crypto market selloff. Its market value remains far below peak-cycle levels, even as AI and privacy remain active themes in the sector.

The move is still notable for the Oasis community because Song helped shape the project’s early research identity. Her work linked blockchain, privacy and security before AI safety became a major mainstream topic.

For Meta, the hire adds academic and startup experience to its AI safety push. For crypto, it shows how privacy and security talent from blockchain continues to move into frontier AI.

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