Gemini Enters Prediction Market Race After CFTC License Approval

TLDR

• Gemini secured approval from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission for a derivatives clearinghouse license.
• The license allows Gemini to clear and settle trades internally without relying on external providers.
• Gemini aims to expand into the prediction market sector and compete with platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket.
• The company plans to offer a full trading ecosystem including futures, options, and event-based contracts.
• Gemini shares increased by about 7% following the announcement of the approval.

Gemini secured regulatory approval to expand its trading operations into U.S. derivatives and prediction markets. The move allows the exchange to handle trade clearing internally and scale new products faster. The announcement also pushed Gemini shares up by about 7%.

Gemini enters prediction market race with new license

Gemini received approval from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission for a derivatives clearinghouse license. This license allows the firm to clear and settle trades without external providers.

The approval strengthens Gemini’s control over its trading infrastructure and supports its expansion plans. The company aims to compete directly with established platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket.

Gemini stated that the license supports its strategy to build a full-service trading platform. The company plans to integrate event-based contracts, futures, and options within one system.

Cameron Winklevoss said, “Today marks a major milestone in Gemini’s marketplace expansion.” He added that the firm is working toward building a financial services “super app.”

Gemini prediction market push aligns with rising demand

Prediction markets recorded strong growth, with trading volume rising over 300% in 2025 to $63.5 billion. This growth has attracted both crypto platforms and traditional financial firms.

Hyperliquid, a decentralized derivatives platform, is preparing to compete in the same sector. At the same time, asset managers are developing exchange-traded funds linked to prediction markets.

Roundhill Investments plans to launch the first U.S. ETFs tied to prediction markets on May 5. Two other asset managers are also preparing similar financial products.

Gemini had already launched a prediction marketplace through its affiliate Gemini Titan in December 2025. That platform received a designated contract market authorization from the CFTC.

U.S. focus drives Gemini restructuring and expansion

Gemini shifted its operational focus to the United States earlier this year. The company exited markets in the United Kingdom, the European Union, and Australia.

This restructuring included a workforce reduction of about 25% across affected regions. The company stated that the U.S. offers stronger capital markets for its long-term plans.

The Winklevoss founders said, “America has the world’s greatest capital markets.” They added that their strategy centers on growth within the U.S. market.

With both DCM and DCO licenses, Gemini can now offer a complete trading ecosystem. The company confirmed plans to expand into crypto futures, options, and perpetual contracts for U.S. users.