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Here’s how U.S. Treasury notes could shape Trump’s Iran war and bitcoin

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Here's how U.S. Treasury notes could shape Trump's Iran war and bitcoin

As the Iran war rages on, U.S. Treasury yields – the market’s gauge of borrowing costs – have surged to multi-month highs, pricing in delayed Fed rate cuts and higher inflation expectations.

The question is at what point the Treasury market, which underpins global finance, starts causing trouble for both the government and the economy, forcing the Trump administration to rethink the war or consider a mechanism to cap yields.

According to ING, that point comes when a little-known 10-year U.S. Treasury swap spread blows past 60 basis points. We are not there yet.

“Watch the 10-year swap spread. It’s just below 50bp now. If that were to shoot to 60bp, it would spell enough trouble to ultimately shape the war path. Why? It’s a measure of the de-rating of Treasuries. We need to steer clear of that. It’s not just the negative perception, it’s the added cost of funding U.S. debt,” Padhraic Garvey, CFA and regional head of research Americas at ING, said in a note to clients Friday.

Garvey emphasized that rising swap spreads aren’t just about perception; they increase the implied cost of funding for the U.S. government, making it more expensive for the heavily-indebted Uncle Sam to issue new bonds and borrow more. This could ripple through the financial system, tightening credit conditions and leading to risk aversion in both stocks and bitcoin .

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“Narrow swap spreads are the good look. Wide swap spreads are the opposite,” he said.

Focus on the 10-year yield

Other observers are focused on the 10-year Treasury yield, the benchmark rate that sets borrowing costs across the U.S. economy, influencing risk-taking in both the economy and financial markets.

Since the Iran war began at the end of February, the yield has surged roughly 45 basis points to 4.37%.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the 4.5%–4.6% range represents a critical “line in the sand.” That’s the level at which President Trump pulled back from his sweeping Liberation Day tariffs last April.

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“This is in line with the rapid surge seen around ‘Liberation Day’ in April 2025. As the 10-year note yield surged above 4.50%, President Trump began floating a potential tariff pause. And, once the yield broke above 4.60%, he officially implemented a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs on April 9th, 2025,” the letter noted on X.

Put simply, the bond market could soon reach a point where the Trump administration feels pressured to temper the war.

On Tuesday, President Donald Trump paused attacks on Iranian infrastructure, claiming productive talks with Iran, though Iran denied having any contact. Meanwhile, early Wednesday, U.S. and Israeli forces reportedly struck new Iranian energy facilities, including a natural gas pipeline in Khorramshahr.

If the yield breaks the 4.5%–4.6% range, it could rise to 5%, the level analysts have flagged as a make-or-break point for risk assets in recent years.

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According to The Kobeissi Letter, the U.S. economy cannot sustain a 5% level in the 10-year yield.

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and chief investment officer at Maelstrom Fund, has previously stated that a potential rise in the 10-year yield above 5% could trigger a mini-financial crisis, forcing the Fed to step in with liquidity injections.

In other words, bitcoin could initially drop in a knee-jerk reaction, but liquidity injections could quickly recharge bulls.

The takeaway is clear. bitcoin traders need to closely track Treasury yields and swap spreads, as shifts in these markets could directly influence risk appetite and policy decisions.

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Ethereum Price Prediction: Will Critical Support Break?

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Ethereum price is trading at $2,160, caught in a high-stakes consolidation zone with a neutral prediction behind it. While recent price action marks a 55% recovery from cycle lows, on-chain data signals caution: whale wallets distributed heavily into the March peak of $2,370.

Volatility is the only certainty this week. Despite persistent energy-driven inflation data keeping pressure on risk assets, institutional interest remains sticky, evidenced by ongoing inflows into BlackRock’s staked ETH ETF. However, the distribution pattern suggests smart money is de-risking ahead of the Glamesterdam hard fork. A break in either direction seems imminent.

The technical posture is mixed. While the Layer-2 ecosystem boasts more than $30 billion TVL, the immediate price action on the daily chart is testing trader resolve. Can the bulls defend the $2,000 level?

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Ethereum Price Prediction: Can ETH Hold Support at $2,000?

As of this morning, Ethereum (ETH) sits at $2,160, posting a healthy +4.5% gain over the last 24 hours. The asset is currently respecting the 52-week range midpoint, utilizing the DEMA 9 at approximately $2,100 as dynamic support. This level is critical; a daily close below could trigger a slide toward the next major liquidity pool at $2,000.

Momentum indicators are flashing warning signs while the RSI hovers in neutral territory at 52 on the daily. This structure often precedes a volatility contraction before a violent expansion. Analysts note that a decisive reclaiming of $2,350 is required to invalidate the bearish distribution thesis.

Ethereum price is trading at $2,160, caught in a high-stakes consolidation zone with a neutral prediction behind it.
ETH USD, TradingView

Should broader market sentiment improve, perhaps tailored by a dovish FOMC dot plot, ETH could target the psychological $2,500 barrier. Conversely, if the projected +10.88% monthly forecast fails to materialize, the 50-EMA near $2,050 acts as the ultimate line in the sand for the bulls.

Discover: The best crypto to diversify your portfolio with

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Bitcoin Hyper Targets Early Mover Upside as Ethereum Stalls

While Ethereum battles localized resistance and macroeconomic headwinds, capital is beginning to rotate (as it often does during consolidation phases) into high-beta infrastructure plays. Sophisticated traders are eyeing the emerging Bitcoin Layer 2 narrative, which promises to unlock trillions in dormant BTC capital.

Leading this charge is Bitcoin Hyper ($HYPER), the first-ever Bitcoin Layer 2 solution to integrate the Solana Virtual Machine (SVM). While Ethereum struggles with gas revenue issues, Bitcoin Hyper claims to deliver transaction speeds faster than Solana itself, directly on the Bitcoin network.

The market appetite for this utility is quantifiable. The project has already raised an amount of more than $32 million in its ongoing presale. Priced currently at just $0.0136, the token offers an entry point significantly lower than established L2s with 36% APY rewards.

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The protocol features a Decentralized Canonical Bridge for seamless BTC transfers and supports high-speed smart contracts that break Bitcoin’s historical limitation of non-programmability.

Buy Bitcoin Hyper Here

Disclaimer: Crypto is a high-risk asset class. This article is provided for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. You could lose all of your capital.

The post Ethereum Price Prediction: Will Critical Support Break? appeared first on Cryptonews.

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TRON DAO scales AI Fund to $1B: what does this mean for TRX price?

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TRX surges as SRM Entertainment secures $100M deal to launch TRON treasury
TRX surges as SRM Entertainment secures $100M deal to launch TRON treasury
  • TRON DAO announced the expansion of its AI Fund from $100 million to $1 billion.
  • The fund targets identity, payments, RWAs & autonomous finance.
  • What does this mean for agentic economy and TRX price?

TRON DAO has dramatically escalated its commitment to artificial intelligence by expanding its AI Fund from $100 million to $1 billion.

According to an announcement, the newly scaled fund will target early‑stage companies building core infrastructure for the “agentic economy.”

But what does this mean for TRX as the crypto project eyes AI‑driven payment systems, tokenized assets, and decentralized applications on the TRON blockchain?

TRON DAO expands AI Fund to $1 billion

The scaled‑up AI Fund marks a strategic pivot from a moderate development pool into a major capital‑allocation vehicle for AI‑native infrastructure.

TRON DAO has stated that the fund will focus on investments and acquisitions in early‑stage companies that build foundational tools for agent‑to‑agent interactions.

These include AI‑driven smart contracts, identity protocols, and machine‑to‑machine payment rails.

By concentrating on “core infrastructure,” Tron aims to deepen its integration with the emerging agentic economy, where AI systems execute financial and contractual operations autonomously on‑chain.

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From a network‑level perspective, this expansion is designed to accelerate the development of AI‑centric decentralized applications (dApps) on TRON.

Significantly, it could also increase the utility of USDT‑based flows that already dominate the ecosystem.

Analysts note that TRON’s emphasis on low‑fee transactions and high‑ throughput makes it a natural environment for AI agents that need to perform frequent, low‑value operations at scale.

The AI Fund’s $1B war chest is expected to attract more developers, startups, and institutional partners to build and deploy AI‑enhanced products directly on the TRON network.

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What does this mean for TRX price?

The expansion of the AI Fund does not directly alter TRX’s supply‑demand mechanics. It doesn’t outline buy‑backs or burns.

However, potential implications for TRX’s long‑term price trajectory are likely.

AI and blockchain convergence is a dominant narrative, and this move can only reinforce TRON’s positioning.

The multi‑year commitment can attract more developers, capital, and transaction volume to the ecosystem.

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In this case, it would mean higher on‑chain activity and transaction fees. Automated trading bots, yield‑harvesting systems, and cross‑chain payment routers could all bolster this outlook.

TRX, as the native utility and gas‑payment token, could benefit in such an environment where AI‑funded projects drive adoption and demand.

The price of TRX has hovered near $0.30 over the past few weeks, largely under pressure alongside the broader market.

However, long-term bullish sentiment remains, with the token about 29% off its all-time high of $0.44 reached in December 2024.

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Recent resilience has come amid increased buying from Tron Inc.

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Hostplus Pension Fund Eyes Crypto Options for Members Amid Growing Demand

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Brian Armstrong's Bold Prediction: AI Agents Will Soon Dominate Global Financial

TLDR:

  • Hostplus manages over A$150 billion and is now exploring Bitcoin access for self-managed retirement accounts.
  • CIO Sam Sicilia confirmed member demand is driving the fund’s renewed interest in digital currency options.
  • Any crypto offering through Choiceplus requires full regulatory approval before launching in the next financial year.
  • Australia’s pension sector holds little crypto exposure, making Hostplus a potential industry trailblazer here.

Australia’s Hostplus pension fund, managing over A$150 billion, is exploring cryptocurrency investment options for its members.

Chief Investment Officer Sam Sicilia confirmed the fund is reviewing Bitcoin and other digital assets. This move could make Hostplus one of the first major Australian pension funds to offer crypto access. Any rollout depends on regulatory approval and remains in the design phase.

Hostplus Eyes Bitcoin Access Through Choiceplus Platform

The fund is looking at offering crypto through its Choiceplus investment option. This platform allows members to self-manage their retirement savings portfolios. Currently, Choiceplus accounts for roughly 1% of the fund’s total assets under management.

Member demand is a key driver behind this consideration. Sicilia pointed directly to member correspondence as evidence of that interest.

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“There’s certainly a demand from some of our members who write in and say ‘why can’t I have access to cryptocurrency?’” he said.

Digital asset products could potentially be available as early as next financial year. However, consumer protections and regulatory compliance must come first. Several design and structural questions still need to be resolved before any launch.

Sicilia also noted that crypto has matured considerably since Hostplus first evaluated it nearly a decade ago. “We’re now at the stage where we’re revisiting digital currencies, not just Bitcoin, but just the broader range of digital currencies,” he said.

That broader scope reportedly includes assets such as music rights alongside traditional cryptocurrencies.

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Regulatory Approval Remains Central to Any Crypto Rollout

Australia’s pension sector, worth A$4.5 trillion, has largely avoided cryptocurrency exposure. AMP became the first major fund to announce a Bitcoin futures investment back in 2024. Hostplus taking a similar step would mark a notable shift in industry posture.

The fund has been firm that it will not move forward without full regulatory clearance. Sicilia made the fund’s position clear on timing.

“We’d love to get regulatory tick off, even if it means waiting another six months,” he said. That patience reflects the fund’s broader investment philosophy.

“We are long-term investors. Six months doesn’t really move the dial for us,” Sicilia added. The fund is prioritizing a compliant and well-structured rollout over a rushed launch. Member protections remain at the center of that approach.

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Outside major pension funds, Australia’s self-managed super funds hold around A$3 billion in crypto. These SMSFs represent about A$1.2 trillion of the broader pension system.

That existing exposure shows retail appetite for crypto within retirement structures is already present. Once approvals are secured, a structured crypto offering could follow within the next financial year.

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As Mass Adoption Approaches, Crypto Has Forgotten Its Roots

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As Mass Adoption Approaches, Crypto Has Forgotten Its Roots

Opinion by: Dr Corey Petty, chief evangelist at Logos

When early cryptocurrencies were conceptualized, the vision was not one of complex leverage strategies, celebrity rugpulls and government treasuries. Rather, cypherpunks sought, through cryptographic tools, to empower people through the privacy-given freedom to exchange goods and services without the threat of government overreach and mass corporate surveillance

The crypto landscape is turning from one of decentralized networks into an extension of traditional finance. Centralized exchanges regularly account for over 80% of daily crypto transactions. If crypto is to hold onto its original ethos, privacy cannot be optional.

Privacy is a tool for carving out the most important properties that support individual freedom in the digital realm: permissionlessness and censorship resistance.

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Privacy as a principle to surveillance capitalism

In this era of regulation, blockchain’s peer-to-peer value proposition means little to institutions. With a pro-crypto administration in the United States, institutions have poured billions into decentralized finance (DeFi). This liberatory technology is quickly becoming a backend for institutional finance, complete with surveillance architecture and walled gardens.

A recent report by Samsung showed that nine out of 10 Europeans are worried about their online privacy while remaining unaware of the options available to them, like the potential of blockchain to safeguard this privacy. Policies like the UK’s push for crypto firms to report customer data have been accepted across industries. Protocols are hardwiring surveillance architecture and compliance-heavy frameworks that mandate data tracking into their offerings — all in an effort to secure institutional validation and large-scale inflows.

Prioritizing profit over purpose by design, perpetuates inequality. The unique properties of blockchain allowed for censorship-resistant solutions that have more recently been used to leverage highly lucrative airdrops, memecoins and casino-style trading strategies, as flagship cryptocurrencies have grown in value.

Products have begun to alienate the very people that crypto was designed to uplift. Instead of get-rich-quick schemes and institutional lobbying, DeFi should be prioritizing accessible financial tools: low-cost layer-2 solutions that reduce transaction fees to pennies, intuitive user interfaces that don’t require technical expertise and products that address real-world needs with the end goal of enabling financial freedom for millions of people.

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From a lost cause to a brighter future

If DeFi will not advocate for crypto’s potential for self-sovereignty, then it is up to the remaining cypherpunks to find other avenues to apply it. Self-governance is perhaps the most comprehensive example of such an application, offering freedom of choice for people over how they wish to be governed and by whom, providing an exit from financial institutions and state-corporate surveillance.

In blockchain governance, the same ledger that supports transparent financial transactions ensures open and immutable voting systems. Tokenized citizenship models can enable fluid participation and serve as an anonymous yet functional digital ID, ensuring access to services.

Using smart contracts, cyberstates — also called network states — enable communities to form voluntary associations based on shared values rather than geographic boundaries. Citizens can exit oppressive jurisdictions and opt into governance systems that align with their principles, creating competitive markets for governance where the best systems attract the most participants.

Rather than being subject to the surveillance and control of traditional nation-states through cryptographically secured systems that take privacy as a cornerstone principle, individuals can organize in decentralized communities, govern themselves through direct democracy, and return sovereignty to the individual, fulfilling the original cypherpunk vision.

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Related: Network states will one day compete with nation-states 

Early visions are already being built. Charter cities and projects are pioneering experiments that combine blockchain governance with physical communities. Meanwhile, decentralized physical infrastructure networks are demonstrating that blockchain has transformative functions far beyond finance, enabling communities to collectively own and operate real-world infrastructure from agricultural supply chains to computing power.

As blockchain technology reaches the masses and institutional adoption becomes inevitable, it is time to reclaim the founding mission. The technology that was built to free individuals from centralized control must not become another tool of that control.

Opinion by: Dr Corey Petty, chief evangelist at Logos.

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