Crypto World
Here’s Why Bitcoin Analysts Say BTC Market Will Bottom in Q4 2026.
Bitcoin (BTC) sellers resumed their activity on Thursday as the Bitcoin price turned away from its intraday high of $68,300. Analysts said that Bitcoin remained in capitulation, which could push the price lower, potentially reaching a bottom during the last quarter of 2026.
Key takeaways:
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Multiple onchain indicators suggest Bitcoin is in deep capitulation as downside risks remain.
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Long-term holder net-position change shows extreme distribution, mirroring past corrections that preceded further downside before bottoms.
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Analysts forecast BTC price to hit a bottom in Q4/2026 based on various technical and onchain metrics.
Bitcoin’s capitulation persists
Bitcoin’s 46% drawdown from its all-time high of $126,000 has left a significant portion of holders underwater, and data shows they are now reducing their exposure.
Glassnode’s long-term holder (LTH) net-position change shows that Bitcoin held by these investors over 30 days decreased by 245,000 BTC on Feb. 6, marking a cycle-relative extreme in daily distribution. Since then, this investor cohort has been reducing its exposure by an average of 170,000 BTC, as shown in the chart below.
Related: Binance teases Bitcoin bullish ‘shift’ as crypto sentiment hits record low
Similar spikes in LTH net position change appeared during the corrective phases in 2019 and mid-2021, leading to BTC price consolidating before extended downtrends.
CryptoQuant data shows that Bitcoin’s MVRV Adaptive Z-Score (365-Day Window) has fallen to -2.66, reinforcing the intensity of the sell-side pressure.
“The current Z-Score reading of -2.66 proves that Bitcoin remains persistently in the capitulation zone,” CryptoQuant contributor GugaOnChain said in a Thursday Quicktake post, adding:
“The indicator suggests that we are approaching the historical accumulation phase.”
Bitcoin’s Realized Profit/Loss Ratio is about to break below 1, levels that have historically aligned with “broad-based capitulation, where realized losses outpace profit-taking across the market,” Glassnode said.
Analysts say Bitcoin will bottom out toward the end of 2026
According to multiple analyses, Bitcoin could extend its downtrend, possibly reaching as low as $40,000 to $50,000 during the last quarter of the year.
The “final capitulation on $BTC is still ahead,” Crypto analyst Tony Research said in a recent post on X, adding:
“My take is, $BTC will bottom at $40K–50K, most likely forming between mid-September and late November 2026.”
Fellow analyst Titan of Crypto said that previous bear cycles in 2018 and 2022 printed their lows 12 months after the bull market top.
Bitcoin’s current all-time high of over $126,000 was reached on Oct. 2, 2025.
“If this cycle follows the same rhythm, that puts the low around October,” the analyst added.
On-Chain College shared a chart showing that Bitcoin’s Net Realized Loss levels hit extreme levels at $13.6 billion on Feb. 7, levels last seen during the 2022 bear market.
“The 2022 loss peak occurred 5 months before the actual bear market bottom was printed,” the analyst said, suggesting that BTC could form a bottom in July 2026.
As Cointelegraph reported, many analysts expect 2026 to be a bear market year, and various forecasts predict the BTC price dropping to as low as $40,000.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
The closure comes as monthly DEX volumes on Sui have dropped 70% from last year’s peak.
Crypto trading terminal Nexa, formerly known as InsiDeX, is shutting down just a year after its acquisition by decentralized exchange Bluefin, citing what it calls “extremely low” trading volumes on the Sui blockchain.
In a Feb. 10 post on X, the team said “only 2-3 coins [are] seeing some decent activity” on Sui, leaving traders with few real opportunities, and added that it was built for fast trades and active markets, conditions that never appeared.
“There’s a real sense of sadness in shutting down Nexa because we succeeded in building a product that was actually the most used trading suite on Sui at one time. Unfortunately, the market it was built for never truly materialized,” the team wrote.
The shutdown follows months of Nexa pushing points-based rewards and other engagement schemes, but that campaign went quiet before the closure.
The move highlights broader weakness across Sui’s DeFi ecosystem. As of Feb. 12, 2026, DefiLlama data shows total value locked (TVL) on Sui at about $561 million, down roughly 78% from a peak of $2.6 billion in October 2025.
DEX volumes have also dropped, falling around 70% from $22.3 billion in October to about $6.8 billion in January. Sui’s native token SUI has also dropped around 50% over the past month to $0.93, per data from CoinGecko.
Moreover, the start of 2026 was rocky for the Sui blockchain as it suffered a six-hour outage that stopped block production. The team later explained that the problem was a bug in the network’s consensus system, which caused validators to disagree on data and temporarily froze transactions.
But Sui isn’t the only network facing challenges amid falling liquidity, as a similar story is unfolding on rival chains like Aptos. As The Defiant reported earlier this month, Merkle Trade — the largest perpetual DEX on Aptos by volume — said it would wind down operations despite processing nearly $30 billion in cumulative trades, as TVL across the network continued to fall too.
Investors faced a sobering quarter as Coinbase reported a net loss for Q4 2025, snapping an eight-quarter streak of profitability as the crypto market cooled. The company posted earnings per share of 66 cents, missing consensus of 92 cents, while revenue slipped 21.5% year over year to $1.78 billion. A mixed revenue mix underscored the shift in the business: transaction-related revenue declined sharply, while subscriptions and services advanced, highlighting a bifurcated earnings trajectory in a tighter crypto ecosystem. The quarter arrived against a backdrop of a broader crypto price retreat, with Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) enduring meaningful pressure through the period and into year-end.
Key takeaways
- Q4 2025 net loss of $667 million ends Coinbase’s run of eight straight profitable quarters, reflecting a weaker quarterly mix and softer market conditions.
- Total revenue dropped to $1.78 billion, down 21.5% year over year, underscoring a broader demand slowdown in trading activity.
- Transaction-related revenue tumbled nearly 37% year over year to $982.7 million, while subscription and services revenue rose more than 13% to $727.4 million, signaling a pivot toward non-transactional monetization.
- Bitcoin price action contributed to the macro headwinds, with the leading crypto shedding roughly 30% from its October peak to year-end, illustrating why crypto market cycles continued to weigh on exchange earnings.
- Despite the earnings miss, Coinbase’s stock (EXCHANGE: COIN) recovered in after-hours trading, gaining about 2.9% to $145.18 after a full trading day decline, reflecting a nuanced market reaction to the results and forward guidance.
Tickers mentioned: $BTC, $COIN
Sentiment: Neutral
Price impact: Positive. The stock rose in after-hours trading following the earnings release despite the quarterly miss, signaling a potential reassessment of near-term expectations.
Market context: The results arrive amid a broader macro environment for crypto assets where price volatility and trading volumes have remained central to revenue durability for major exchanges, and where investor focus has shifted toward product diversification and cost discipline.
Why it matters
The quarterly print underscores the ongoing transition for a major crypto exchange from a revenue model heavily reliant on trading activity toward a more diversified mix anchored in subscriptions, services, and value-added offerings. Coinbase, in its Q4 2025 shareholder documentation, highlighted that 2025 was a “strong year” operationally and financially, with full-year revenues reaching $6.88 billion, up 9.4% from 2024. This indicates a strategy aimed at resilience in the face of cyclical downturns, leveraging product expansion and platform reach to sustain long-term profitability even when trading volumes ebb.
From a market structure perspective, the numbers reflect a clear divergence within the crypto economy: trading remains sensitive to price swings and risk sentiment, while an expanding suite of services—including custody, staking, and AI-enabled wallet products—offers revenue visibility beyond quarterly price moves. Coinbase’s leadership has stressed that more than 12% of all crypto globally resided on its platform in 2025, a stark data point that underscores the bankability of scale and network effects in this nascent asset class. The shift toward a steadier subscription and services revenue base could insulate the company from near-term volatility and set the stage for steadier long-run growth.
On the earnings call, CFO Aleshia Haas emphasized operational discipline, noting plans to keep technology, sales, and marketing expenses relatively flat in the near term while evaluating opportunities to deploy resources more efficiently. This stance signals a prioritization of cash-generative activities and careful investment in product development, a balance that may appeal to investors seeking a secular growth story within a still-fragile macro environment.
The quarter’s performance also touches on investor sentiment around cryptoasset risk and institutional flow. The broader market has experienced episodic stress, and the company’s performance appears tightly linked to the health of Bitcoin and other major assets as traders respond to global liquidity shifts, regulatory updates, and evolving market structure debates. In this context, Coinbase’s results offer a lens into how a large crypto exchange navigates a period of cyclical headwinds while pursuing a trajectory that relies less on trading volatility and more on recurring revenue streams and product expansion.
What to watch next
- Q4-25 shareholder letter release and detailed segment breakdown to assess how much the revenue mix shifted beyond transaction revenue.
- Q1 outlook updates, including any revisions to subscription and services revenue guidance and the trajectory of transaction revenue as market conditions evolve.
- Updates on product initiatives, especially any milestones around AI-enabled wallets or other services that broaden asset utility on the platform.
- Bitcoin price trends in early 2026 and corresponding impact on trading volumes and fee-based revenue for Coinbase and similar exchanges.
- Regulatory developments or macro signals that influence risk sentiment in the crypto market, which could affect liquidity and user activity on the platform.
Sources & verification
- Coinbase Q4-25 Shareholder Letter (PDF) – official financial disclosure for the quarter and full-year 2025.
- Q4 2025 earnings data and commentary – as described in the shareholder letter and accompanying materials.
- Bitcoin price movements referenced in market coverage and related context articles linked in the report.
- Post-earnings trading data for Coinbase (COIN) stock, including after-hours move to approximately $145.18 and intraday trade levels.
- Related Coinbase product and strategy articles cited in the earnings narrative, including references to AI wallet initiatives and platform expansion.
Market reaction and key details
Coinbase’s quarterly results foreground a critical moment for the crypto exchange sector: profitability in a market that remains highly sensitive to both crypto price cycles and the intensity of trading activity. In the quarter, Coinbase’s total revenue of $1.78 billion reflected a decline in transactional income, even as the company advanced its services-based revenue. The shift aligns with a broader push in the industry to monetize platform usage beyond buy/sell activity, a move designed to stabilize earnings amid volatile asset prices.
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) endured a meaningful pullback during the quarter, illustrating the bidirectional relationship between asset prices and exchange revenues. The asset’s gradient—from highs near six figures to more subdued levels—has tangible implications for liquidity, trading volumes, and fee accrual on major platforms. While the exact trajectory of crypto price action is inherently uncertain, the quarter’s data points reinforce the importance of a diversified revenue model for exchanges seeking resilience during bear-to-bull transitions in the market.
What it means for users and the market
For users, the emphasis on subscriptions and services could translate into broader access to tools that help manage, secure, and optimize holdings beyond straightforward trading. The potential to link more products to user assets could deepen engagement and wallet utility, potentially driving retention and incremental revenue through non-transactional channels. For builders and investors, Coinbase’s approach underscores the importance of a scalable, multi-pronged business model in the crypto economy, particularly as regulatory clarity evolves and market structure debates continue to unfold.
What to watch next
- Q4-25 investor communications with detailed breakdowns of revenue by services vs. transaction flows.
- Near-term guidance updates, including subscription/services outlook and any changes to capital allocation strategy.
- Progress updates on AI-enabled wallet initiatives and other product launches intended to expand asset use-cases on the platform.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has added a slew of crypto executives, including those from Coinbase and Ripple, to its Innovation Advisory Committee, who will shape how the regulator crafts policy.
CFTC chair Mike Selig said on Thursday that the 35 members of the committee will “ensure the CFTC’s decisions reflect market realities” and enable it to “develop clear rules of the road for the Golden Age of American Financial Markets.”
The committee launched in January, and replacing the Technology Advisory Committee, which drew on the advice of tech leaders to dissect how new technologies were impacting the derivatives markets more broadly.
Selig has signalled the CFTC will be more receptive to crypto and has started work with the Securities and Exchange Commission to coordinate on how to regulate the sector.
Crypto executives make up bulk of committee
Of the 35 members making up the committee, 20 are tied to companies involved in crypto, while at least five are involved in prediction markets.
The list includes Gemini CEO Tyler Winklevoss, Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan, Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour and Crypto.com CEO Kris Marszalek, in addition to executives at Nasdaq, Intercontinental Exchange, Cboe Global Markets, CME Group, Kraken and Bullish.
Also on the committee is Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse, a16z Crypto partner Chris Dixon, Solana Labs CEO Anatoly Yakovenko, Uniswap CEO Hayden Adams, Blockchain.com CEO Peter Smith, Robinhood CEO Vladimir Tenev, Grayscale CEO Peter Mintzberg and Anchorage Digital CEO Nathan McCauley.
Related: US fines Paxful $4M for moving funds tied to trafficking, fraud
Executives at Paradigm, DraftKings, and the US Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation were also included.
CFTC to consider input beyond panel
The committee will advise the CFTC on the commercial, economic, and practical considerations of emerging products, platforms and business models in financial markets.
In an announcement in January, the CFTC said that it would also consider the viewpoints of regulatory bodies, academia and public interest groups in forming its policy.
Magazine: A ‘tsunami’ of wealth is headed for crypto: Nansen’s Alex Svanevik
The pro-crypto political action committee (PAC) Protect Progress will reportedly spend $1.5 million opposing Texas representative Al Green in the upcoming Democratic Party primary over his past opposition to crypto.
“As a member of the Financial Services Committee, Representative Al Green has decided to try and stop American innovation in its tracks,” Protect Progress, an affiliate of the major crypto PAC Fairshake, told The Hill on Thursday.
Green, a Democrat who has represented Texas’s 9th congressional district in the House since 2005, opposed the stablecoin regulating GENIUS Act and the CLARITY Act, two crypto-focused bills that the House passed last year.
“Texas voters can no longer sit by and have representation in Congress that is actively hostile towards a growing Texas crypto community,” Protect Progress said. “We are committed to electing new members who embrace innovation, growth and wealth creation for all Americans.”
It’s the crypto lobby’s latest attempt to influence Congress ahead of the midterm elections in November. In the 2024 elections, the crypto industry emerged as one of the largest spenders, with Fairshake alone spending roughly $130 million, resulting in an influx of pro-crypto elected officials.
Super PACs raise money through donations but can’t directly fund or coordinate with political campaigns. Instead, they purchase ads and use other methods to support specific candidates.
Advocacy group says Green against crypto
Green will face off against Christian Menefee in the Democratic primary in March for the reshaped Houston-area district.
Texas will be one of the first states to hold a primary vote on March 3, along with Arkansas and North Carolina, when each party will choose its nominee, followed by the general election on Nov. 3.
Crypto advocacy organization, Stand With Crypto, which compiles previous statements and actions to rate US politicians on their crypto stances, lists Green as “strongly against crypto” based on his voting history and statements about the technology.
Menefee supports blockchain technology
Meanwhile, Stand With Crypto rated Menefee as “strongly supports crypto” based on his answers to the organization’s questionnaire, with one of his answers expressing an interest in legislation that uses the technology for real-world problems, such as combating deed fraud by recording property records on the blockchain.
Related: Trump Bitcoin adviser David Bailey wants to create a $200M PAC
“That kind of innovation could protect working families from scams and modernize outdated government systems. I’d support or introduce bills that promote practical, public-serving blockchain use cases like this,” he said.
Another Fairshake affiliate, Defend American Jobs, announced on Tuesday that it was spending $5 million to support crypto-friendly Republican Barry Moore in his bid for the US Senate. Fairshake disclosed in January that it had gathered $193 million ahead of the midterm elections.
Magazine: 2026 is the year of pragmatic privacy in crypto — Canton, Zcash and more
The Espresso Network has launched its ESP token, opening participation in securing the network and distributing a community airdrop representing 10% of total supply.
The network will eventually transition to a permissionless proof-of-stake model in a few weeks, which follows the rollout of the ESP token, used for staking, securing the network and protocol participation. The Espresso Foundation said the total supply is 3.59 billion ESP, with 10% allocated to a fully unlocked community airdrop aimed at early ecosystem participants and users of Espresso-integrated rollups.
“There were various ways of determining who was eligible,” Espresso Systems CEO and co-founder Ben Fisch told CoinDesk in an interview. “The idea here is to get the token circulating among members of our extended community, but also to reward early participation and adoption of the Espresso network.”
The foundation said additional token supply has been allocated to contributors, investors, future ecosystem incentives and long-term network sustainability, with most allocations subject to vesting.
Espresso acts as a coordination and finality layer for rollups, which operate as independent execution environments. Fisch said the network is designed specifically to serve layer-2 blockchains rather than compete with them at the execution layer.
“Layer-2s need only one thing from a layer-1, which is finality,” Fisch said. “How well a layer-1 provides services to a layer-2 is measured in two things, how secure that blockchain and how fast it can provide finality.”
“Unlike Ethereum, or any other existing layer-1s, it is designed for layer-2s,” he added. “It doesn’t compete with L2s. It’s designed for L2s.”
Espresso currently finalizes rollup blocks in about six seconds on average, compared with Ethereum’s 12-minute-plus finality window (finalizing blocks means that they become immutable). That gap, Fisch argued, has become a structural bottleneck as applications and liquidity spread across multiple rollups rather than remaining concentrated on a single chain.
“Fast finality isn’t a nice-to-have for rollups,” Fisch said. “It’s the missing piece that transforms isolated chains into a unified, composable ecosystem.”
The launch comes as the Ethereum ecosystem debates the future role of layer-2 networks, following recent comments from Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin suggesting the network may eventually pivot away from an L2-centric roadmap as improvements to Ethereum’s base layer reduce the need for rollups as a scaling solution.
That debate has raised broader questions about whether layer-2 networks are extensions of Ethereum or independent blockchains in their own right, and whether infrastructure designed primarily to scale Ethereum will remain relevant as the base layer becomes faster and cheaper.
As Ethereum’s long-term scaling strategy comes under renewed scrutiny, Espresso is betting that demand for application-specific rollups, particularly from institutions and consumer platforms, will continue to grow regardless of Ethereum’s roadmap.
Read more: Espresso, project for composability between blockchains, pushes main product live
CORRECTION (Feb 12 2026, 15:55 UTC): Updates story to say the network will transition to a proof-of-stake blockchain in the next few weeks.
When given a carefully engineered prompt, Perplexity AI reveals explosive predictions for crypto’s top assets, including XRP, Cardano, and Bitcoin.
Its projections suggest all three could reach new all-time highs by the end of 2026, a timeline that could catch many investors off guard.
In the breakdown below, we explore how these forecasts line up with current technical trends, major catalysts, and what they could mean for long-term holders.
XRP ($XRP): Perplexity Says Ripple’s Vision Could Launch XRP to $8
In a recent statement, Ripple reiterated that XRP ($XRP) remains central to its mission of establishing the XRP Ledger as a global, institutional-grade payments network.
Known for near-instant settlement and minimal transaction costs, XRPL also has the potential to corner two rapidly expanding sectors: stablecoins (RLUSD) and real-world asset tokenization.
With XRP currently trading near $1.39, Perplexity projects a potential move toward $8 by the end of 2026, a gain of roughly 6x from current levels.
Chart data supports the possibility of a breakout. XRP’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 31 after being oversold, a sign that the recent selloff is ending.
Potential catalysts ahead include new institutional inflows following the recent approval of U.S.-listed spot XRP exchange-traded funds, Ripple’s growing roster of partnerships, and U.S. lawmakers finalizing the CLARITY bill later this year.
Cardano (ADA): Perplexity Sees a 2,100% Rally on the Cards
Founded by Ethereum co-creator Charles Hoskinson, Cardano ($ADA) emphasizes peer-reviewed research, robust security, scalability, and long-term sustainability.
With a market capitalization near $10 billion and over $125 million in TVL, Cardano’s thriving ecosystem continues to support its long-term growth narrative.
According to Perplexity, ADA could surge more than 2,100%, rising from its current price around $0.27 to approximately $6 by Christmas, double its 2021 ATH of $3.09.
However, ADA is currently trading at its lowest level since October 2024. Given the volatility seen so far this year, further downside cannot be ruled out, with a potential retest of the $0.20–$0.25 support zone if the selloff continues.
Bitcoin (BTC): Perplexity Suggests $500,000 Is Possible
Bitcoin ($BTC), the original cryptocurrency and market leader by capitalization, set a new ATH of $126,080 on October 6 before falling 46% to its current price around $67,750.
Often referred to as digital gold, Bitcoin continues to draw interest from both institutions and individual investors seeking a hedge against inflation and macroeconomic uncertainty.
Bitcoin’s recent inertia was intensified by geopolitical concerns around U.S. military actions in Iran and Greenland. However, Perplexity’s analysis indicates that Bitcoin’s broader upward trend remains intact, with a 2026 price target of $250,000.
The AI points to accelerating institutional adoption and post-halving supply constraints as key factors that could drive Bitcoin to multiple new highs this cycle.
Additionally, if U.S. policymakers make good on Trump’s Executive Order to create a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, Bitcoin’s upside potential could exceed Perplexity’s already optimistic forecasts.
Maxi Doge: Move Aside, Dogecoin, A New Meme Coin Takes Center Stage
For investors chasing higher-risk, higher-reward opportunities, the presale market offers the best opportunity to buy in early.
Maxi Doge ($MAXI) has quickly become one of the most talked-about meme coin presales of 2026, having raised $4.6 million so far.
The project stars Maxi Doge, a degen gym-bro and envious distant relative of Dogecoin who is now claiming the meme coin throne, tapping into the irreverent and competitive humor that first made meme coins a sensation.
Presale investors can currently stake MAXI tokens for yields of up to 68% APY, with rewards gradually decreasing as the staking pool grows.
The token sells for $0.0002803 in the current presale round, with price increases at each funding milestone. Purchases are supported through wallets such as MetaMask and Best Wallet.
Stay updated through Maxi Doge’s official X and Telegram pages.
Visit the Official Website Here
The post Perplexity AI Predicts the Price of XRP, Cardano and Bitcoin By the End of 2026 appeared first on Cryptonews.
Crypto World
Xiaomi’s electric SUV tops China sales in January, sells twice as many as Tesla’s Model Y
Chinese smartphone company Xiaomi launched its YU7 electric SUV in summer 2025, taking direct aim at Tesla’s Model Y.
Sopa Images | Lightrocket | Getty Images
BEIJING — Xiaomi‘s electric car venture has succeeded in dethroning Tesla in China, at least in January.
The Xiaomi YU7 SUV ranked first in China by sales last month, with 37,869 units sold, twice as many as Tesla’s 16,845 Model Y vehicles, according to data from the China Passenger Car Association.
The Model Y, which was the best-selling model in December, plunged to 20th place in January. Among new energy vehicles, it also fell from the first position to seventh over the same period.
The figures include both electric and gasoline-powered vehicles and were published late Thursday by online car sales platform Autohome.
Xiaomi started selling the YU7, its second electric car model, roughly half a year ago in the summer of 2025.
The Chinese company, best known for its smartphones, hasn’t been shy about its aim to take on Tesla. Xiaomi launched the car at a starting price that was 10,000 yuan ($1,450) below the Model Y in China. The company claimed the model beat Tesla on key metrics such as driving range on a single battery charge.
Analysts last year predicted the YU7 would take market share from the Model Y, Tesla’s best-selling car in China. In December, the Model Y ranked first in monthly sales, ahead of BYD‘s budget-priced Qin Plus car. Xiaomi’s YU7 ranked third.
Monthly sales figures can be volatile. While the YU7 did outsell the Model Y in October, the Xiaomi car did not rank first. Tesla has so far been consistently stronger in sales.
Excluding gasoline-powered cars, Tesla ranked fifth in China sales last year, while Xiaomi placed tenth. For all of 2025, BYD led China’s auto market with over 3 million vehicles sold, followed by Geely at 2.6 million, according to China Passenger Car Association data.
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The YU7’s strong sales in January came despite an overall slowdown in China’s electric car market in recent months.
Xiaomi’s earlier SU7 sedan has also faced scrutiny following fatal accidents involving driver-assist features and electrically-powered door handles. Beijing has since banned hidden door handles, while automakers have started installing external lights that indicate when driver-assist is in use.
Like most Chinese electric car companies, Xiaomi also plans to expand overseas, including into Europe next year.
The new token offers investors exposure to lease payments generated by two jet engines.
ETHZilla Corporation (Nasdaq: ETHZ) on Thursday, Feb. 12 launched Eurus Aero Token I, a tokenized asset backed by two commercial jet engines currently in use by a U.S. air carrier.
The tokens — which are issued on Ethereum Layer 2 networks and distributed through the Liquidityio platform — give investors exposure to lease payments generated by the engines. ETHZilla said it acquired the engines for about $12.2 million. Meanwhile, tokens are priced at $100 each, with a minimum purchase of 10 tokens.
The company said in a press release viewed by The Defiant that the investment targets annual returns of about 11% over the life of the leases, which run through 2027 and 2028.
The launch comes as interest in tokenized real-world assets (RWAs) continues to grow across both crypto and traditional finance. Data from RWAxyz shows that distributed asset value rose to $23.87 billion, up nearly 11% over the past 30 days.
The value of underlying RWAs represented on-chain also increased more than 8% during the same period to $21.41 billion. Meanwhile, the number of asset holders jumped to 835,179, a 34% month-over-month increase.
ETHZilla CEO McAndrew Rudisill told The Defiant that the company’s mission is to “democratize access to institutional-grade investments” by giving investors direct exposure to RWAs that have historically been out of reach.
Rudisill explained that jet engine leasing has traditionally been accessible only to large institutions and private investment funds. However, by using tokenization technology, the asset can be accessed by smaller players – though the offering is limited to accredited investors.
“ETHZilla was able to design a financial instrument that is structured around defined lease terms, creating a uniquely transparent, income-oriented alternative to traditional private aerospace leasing structures,” he said.
Lease payments are collected each month and paid out to token holders, the release explained. The engines are not financed with debt, and ETHZilla said it does not plan to use borrowing to boost returns for this product.
While ETHZilla is contractually restricted from naming the specific air carrier, a person familiar with the matter confirmed to The Defiant that it is “one of the largest and most profitable airlines.”
Looking Ahead
Looking ahead, Rudisill said ETHZilla recently acquired a portfolio of manufactured and modular home loans, which it plans to tokenize next.
“Manufactured home loans represent an approximately $14 billion market, and are a high-yield, high-quality asset class historically accessible only to a handful of private lenders,” he said. “Not only will tokenizing these assets open this market up to a broader range of investors, we also believe that facilitating financing breadth for manufactured homes could contribute to adding housing supply and alleviate an ongoing national shortage.”
Further down the line, ETHZilla is exploring auto loans, commercial real estate, and other asset classes as potential tokenized income products, Rudisill added.
ETHZilla Corporation, formerly 180 Life Sciences, rebranded in August 2025 to focus on building an Ethereum-based treasury and developing decentralized finance (DeFi) strategies. The company currently holds 69,802 ETH, valued at about $148.4 million, according to CoinGecko.
ETHZ is currently trading at $3.40, up about 5% today following the news.
Bitcoin faced renewed selling pressure on Thursday as the price retraced from an intraday high near 68,300 dollars. On-chain observations point to ongoing capitulation, with long‑term holders trimming exposure and a broad mix of leverage liquidations fueling the weakness. Several analysts argue that the current cycle could see BTC bottoming in late 2026, after a protracted downward phase that has pulled the asset from its 2025 peak in a manner not seen since prior bear markets.
Key takeaways
- On-chain indicators point to deep capitulation, with downside risks persisting as long-term holders adjust positions.
- Long-term holder net-position change shows extreme distribution, echoing patterns seen before previous bottoms in the cycle.
- Multiple analyses point toward a potential BTC bottom in Q4 2026, aligning with a history of multi-quarter bear cycles.
- Mass liquidations and shifting open interest underscore caution amid persistent stress in the derivatives market.
- Developments in on-chain metrics continue to diverge from recent price rallies, implying limited near-term upside without renewed buying interest.
Tickers mentioned: $BTC, $ETH
Sentiment: Bearish
Price impact: Negative. The ongoing capitulation signals and persistent selling pressure raise the odds of BTC trading lower in the near term.
Trading idea (Not Financial Advice): Hold. While downside risk remains, indicators suggest the market could form a bottom later in 2026, warranting cautious positioning and risk management.
Market context: The current phase sits within a broader risk-off backdrop for crypto markets, where on-chain signals and leveraged liquidations have amplified volatility while traders await clearer macro and regulatory cues.
Why it matters
The tenor of on-chain data underscores a fundamental shift in investor behavior. Long-term holders have historically acted as a counterweight to price declines, yet in this cycle their net exposure has declined sharply, suggesting widespread capitulation among a cohort that typically anchors market recoveries. The observed distribution patterns bear similarities to prior corrections that preceded further downside before a subsequent bottom, pointing to a potential multi-month horizon before a durable floor emerges.
Analysts emphasize that such capitulation does not guarantee a bottom right away; instead, it denotes a phase where weak hands have exited and confidence remains fragile. Fundamental demand appears tempered by macro uncertainty, while BTC faces the dual test of reclaiming critical price levels and reframing risk appetite among specialized participants who dominate futures and options markets. In other words, the path to a meaningful reversal is likely to hinge on whether buying interest can reassert itself after the current wave of liquidations peters out.
The data also highlight a tension between price action and longer-term metrics. While the price has flirted with notable support levels, corresponding on-chain signals have not yet shown a decisive pivot toward sustainable accumulation. Some observers argue that the most consequential developments—such as a sustained improvement in realized losses versus profits or an uptick in long-position liquidations—could precede a bottom, as past cycles have often featured distinctive phases where capitulation preceded a period of consolidation.
From a broader market perspective, the cycle’s depth has tested risk controls and liquidity across exchanges. The magnitude of long liquidations, particularly in the BTC‑USD pair, has drawn attention to the fragility of highly leveraged positions. In tandem, OI (open interest) has remained elevated relative to short-term price moves, signaling caution among participants who depend on leverage to express directional bets. These dynamics feed a narrative in which a bottom, if it materializes, may occur only after a protracted period of price discovery and tighter funding conditions rather than a quick rebound.
What to watch next
- Bitcoin price reclaim of key zones around 105,000–107,000 dollars could signal a shift in momentum and align with some bear-case bottoms.
- Continued analysis of long-term holder net-position changes to assess whether distribution slows or accelerates as markets approach mid‑2026.
- Monitoring MVRV Adaptive Z‑Score trends and other momentum indicators for signs of accumulation or renewed capitulation.
- Open interest and funding-rate dynamics on major futures platforms to gauge whether downside pressure is fading or intensifying.
- Macro and regulatory developments that could influence liquidity and risk appetite in crypto markets, potentially shaping the timing of a bottom.
Sources & verification
- Glassnode analyses on long-term holder net-position change and its relationship to bear-market bottoms.
- CryptoQuant Quicktake data showing Bitcoin’s MVRV Adaptive Z-Score at deeply negative levels.
- CoinGlass data detailing liquidation clusters and changes in futures open interest across exchanges.
- Public posts from market analysts on X discussing potential timing of a bottom, including references to historical cycles.
- On-Chain College charts illustrating net realized losses and their historical context.
Bitcoin capitulation deepens as on-chain metrics point to possible late-2026 bottom
Bitcoin has moved decisively off its intraday peak, with the price retreating from the near region of 68,300 dollars as sellers reasserted control this Thursday. The retreat comes after a sizable drawdown from the all-time high set in the previous cycle, a drop of roughly 46 percent from a peak above 126,000 dollars in October 2025. The move has intensified a narrative of capitulation that on-chain trackers have been flagging for weeks, as a substantial portion of the market remains underwater and exposure patterns shift among different investor cohorts.
Glassnode’s data on long-term holders reveals a cycle-relative extreme in daily distribution. The net-position change shows that BTC held by long-term investors fell by about 245,000 coins on February 6, and the trend has persisted, with this group trimming exposure by an average of roughly 170,000 BTC per day since then. This behavior mirrors episodes in previous corrections when long-dated holders capitulated before the market carved out a bottom, suggesting that the present phase shares some historical characteristics with past bear cycles. The observation is not a forecast in itself, but it does provide a framework for interpreting a price action that has defied quick reversals despite briefer rallies.
“The current Z-Score reading of -2.66 proves that Bitcoin remains persistently in the capitulation zone,” CryptoQuant contributor GugaOnChain explained, noting that the metric has historically signaled an accumulation phase on the horizon.
Another lens comes from the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio, which Glassnode notes is nearing a decisive threshold. When realized losses outrun profits, markets have tended to experience broader capitulation rather than immediate recoveries, a pattern investors watch closely as they assess whether the current cycle is entering a new accumulation phase or simply grinding lower before a deeper pullback.
Meanwhile, market observers have cited the most dramatic liquidations in recent sessions, with BTC and Ether (CRYPTO: ETH) accounting for outsized losses across liquidators, and a broad 1.33 billion dollars in combined short and long liquidations reported in one window. The juxtaposition of persistent price softness with still-significant open interest highlights the fragility of the current price regime, where leverage remains at risk of triggering renewed bouts of selling if markets retest critical levels. The largest single liquidation reportedly occurred on a major platform, underscoring the scope of risk in a crowded derivatives market.
On the forecasting front, several voices argue that BTC could bottom in the fourth quarter of 2026, albeit with a wide range of potential price bands. One analyst characterized the trajectory as potentially forming a floor in the 40,000 to 50,000 dollar region, while other analysts see a more complex path shaped by liquidity cycles and macro factors. The all-time high printed in October 2025 casts a long shadow, with traders noting that the drive to find a bottom may hinge on a combination of on-chain discipline and renewed buying interest from institutions and retail participants alike.
Data of note from On-Chain College shows a spike in net realized losses up to around 13.6 billion dollars in early February, levels not seen since the 2022 bear market. If history rhymes, this peak could precede a broader bottom as market participants digest losses and reassess risk, potentially leading to a calibration of positions that could stabilize prices later in the year or into 2027. The narrative around a late-2026 bottom is not a guarantee, but a synthesis of historical patterns, current on-chain dynamics, and the persistence of downward price pressure despite intermittent rallies.
Looking ahead, the research community remains divided, with some analysts arguing that the capitulation wave could ease as positions liquidate and fear subsides, allowing a stable base to form. Others caution that until key price levels are reclaimed and investor confidence returns, BTC could stay range-bound or drift to sub-100,000 dollar territory before buyers re-emerge. This uncertainty underscores the importance of monitoring both price action and the evolving on-chain environment as a rough timetable for turning points remains ambiguous.
The Fed looks set to keep interest rates on hold when policymakers meet in March, as both January’s jobs report and recent commentary from voting officials reinforce a pause-for-longer stance.
President Donald Trump has consistently called for the Fed to cut rates, even though inflation has remained stubbornly above the central bank’s 2% target level. Kevin Warsh, Trump’s nominee to replace Jerome Powell as Fed Chair in May, has also called for lower interest rates.
But January’s jobs data do little to build the case for another rate cut after three precautionary reductions late last year. Payrolls rose 130,000 and wage growth firmed last month, both coming in stronger than expected.
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