Crypto World
Here’s why Bitcoin price dropped under $66K today
Bitcoin price briefly touched an intraday low of $65,727 on Monday, March 9, as market sentiment remained risk-off amid concerns surrounding rising oil prices and escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran.
Summary
- Bitcoin price briefly fell towards the $65,000 support level as investors reacted to a spike in oil prices.
- The ongoing conflict between the U.S. and Iran has disrupted trade at the Strait of Hormuz, a global checkpoint for oil distribution.
According to data from crypto.news, Bitcoin (BTC) price fell 3.5% to an intraday low of $65,727 on Monday, extending its downturn for the fifth straight day and dropping nearly 11% in that period. The world’s largest crypto asset is down roughly 5% over the past month.
Bitcoin price fell as investors continued to diverge from risk assets amid geopolitical tensions and macro volatility.
The bellwether appears to be mimicking traditional equity markets. Notably, futures tied to traditional market indices such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 1,026 points to 46,696, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 dropped by 136 points and 440 points each before U.S. markets resumed.
Investor sentiment deteriorated as the ongoing military conflict between the U.S. and Iran successively led to a blockade at the Strait of Hormuz, a global chokepoint for oil distribution. This led to a sharp jump in oil prices. In fact, oil prices across the globe shot up above the $100 mark, the first time crude oil has surpassed this level in nearly four years.
Market instability in the region began after Israeli fighter jets struck several fuel depots and refineries in the region on Saturday, March 7. Subsequently, Iran retaliated with missile and drone strikes of its own on vessels and military bases in the Gulf region.
As market risk sentiment soured, investors are concerned about whether Bitcoin price will continue to decline in correlation with traditional equity markets. The bellwether has historically moved in tandem with equities, especially during periods of macro uncertainty.
Against the backdrop, investors are concerned that rising oil prices could reignite U.S. inflation jitters and a potential delay in interest rate cuts. A hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve could dampen liquidity, which has often acted as a major tailwind for risk assets such as Bitcoin.
Bitcoin fell to an intraday low of $65,000 support during the late U.S. trading hours on Sunday. This level has acted as a strong demand zone over the past few months, and the asset managed to rebound as it retraced part of its weekend losses.
At presstime, Bitcoin had recovered above $68,000. The quick recovery suggests that investors may have already soaked up the latest market shock.
Crypto World
Strategy (MSTR) added 17,994 bitcoin last week, bringing total holdings to 738,731 coins
Led by Executive Chairman Michael Saylor, Strategy (MSTR) made a massive bitcoin purchase last week.
The leading bitcoin treasury company added 17,994 bitcoin to its holdings for a total cost of $1.28 billion, or $70,946 per coin. The company stack now stands at 738,731 BTC acquired for $56.04 billion, or $75,862 per coin.
Bitcoin is currently trading just below $68,000.
Last week’s buys were mostly funded via $900 million in sales of common stock. The company also sold $377 million of its STRC preferred series of stock, according to a Monday morning filing.
MSTR shares are higher by 0.2% in pre-market trading.
After years of opposition to crypto mixers, the onchain services that obfuscate digital asset transactions, the U.S. Treasury Department now says they may have legitimate privacy uses as well as their much-trumpeted criminal applications.
In a report related to the implementation of the Genius Act, the Treasury acknowledged that mixing services can serve lawful purposes on public blockchains. These include shielding personal finances, business transactions and charitable donations from being publicly traceable. The department noted that privacy tools can coexist with compliance when properly designed, for example, through record-keeping or other safeguards.
“As consumers increase their use of digital assets for payments, individuals may want to use mixers to maintain more privacy of their consumer spending habits,” the Treasury noted in the report.
The mixers, which obscure the origin and destination of digital asset transactions by pooling users’ funds together, have long been controversial in Washington. In 2022, the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) blacklisted the Ethereum-based mixer Tornado Cash, accusing it of facilitating the laundering of billions in illicit crypto tied to North Korea’s Lazarus hacking group. The sanctions effectively barred Americans from using the tool and ignited one of the most contentious regulatory fights in crypto.
In 2025, the government removed Tornado Cash from the list following legal challenges and an appellate court decision questioning the Treasury’s authority to impose sanctions on open-source smart contracts. Although released on bail, Tornado Cash co-founder and developer Roman Storm still faces legal issues as prosecutors claim they have sufficient evidence to demonstrate he built features into the mixer knowing they would aid cybercriminals.
The report doesn’t abandon concerns about illicit finance. It highlights mixers as tools often used to obscure stolen funds and emphasizes the need for stronger anti-money laundering (AML) controls across digital assets. But it also states that privacy technology itself isn’t inherently illegal.
Beyond mixers, the report signals broader policy shifts. Treasury encourages Congress to clarify which decentralized finance (DeFi) actors should fall under AML obligations, explore digital-identity tools that enable compliance without excessive data collection, and consider new authorities allowing institutions to temporarily freeze suspicious digital assets.
Crypto exchange Bybit has reaffirmed its commitment to the Middle East amid escalating global conflict, announcing the appointment of a new country manager to increase its presence in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region.
Tensions in the Middle East escalated last month after the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran. In response, Iran retaliated against several neighboring countries, including the United Arab Emirates (UAE), the United Arab Emirates (UAE), where Bybit maintains a major regional presence.
Helen Liu, co-CEO of Bybit, said the company has no plans to scale back its Middle East operations in light of the conflict.
“Some companies are reassessing their Gulf exposure right now. We are doing the opposite. We are deepening our presence, our investment, and our commitment to this region,” she said.
“We continue to invest in local talent, regulatory compliance, and community partnerships. The UAE’s vision to become the world’s leading digital asset hub is not diminished by this crisis. If anything, the resilience this nation is showing only reinforces why we chose to build here.”
Cryptocurrencies are often used in times of crisis, as citizens look to preserve their assets amid fears of instability in traditional banking systems.
Iran’s leading crypto exchange Nobitex experienced a sharp rise in withdrawals soon after strikes on Tehran.
Bybit appoints new MENA country manager
Derek Dai has been appointed the new country manager for Bybit in the MENA region, the exchange announced. His role will include overseeing market expansion, regulatory collaboration, institutional partnerships and localized product development.
Related: UAE central bank says financial system stable amid missile and drone attacks
Bybit said it has also implemented several measures to protect its UAE-based employees, including daily check-ins, real-time safety confirmations and relocation or travel support.
Dai said the Middle East is becoming a pivotal region for the future of crypto. Over the coming months, Bybit will focus on expanding access to the United Arab Emirates dirham and forging partnerships with banks and payment providers.
“Our priority is to deepen collaboration with financial centers such as the DIFC [Dubai International Financial Centre], and the DMCC [Dubai Multi Commodities Centre],” he said.
Adding that Bybit also wants to strengthen “the infrastructure that connects digital assets with everyday financial services and advancing the development of tokenized real-world assets that bridge traditional finance and the digital asset economy.”
Roughly 1,800 crypto companies operate in the UAE, employing more than 8,600 people. Abu Dhabi, the UAE’s capital, also saw a 67% increase in new licenses issued in the ADGM financial free zone at the start of 2025 compared with 2024.
Magazine: The debate over Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is over: Benjamin Cowen
Australian crypto exchange BTC Markets has informed the country’s securities regulator, the Australian Securities and Investments Commission, of its plan to apply for a markets license that would enable regulated tokenized real-world assets (RWAs) to be offered to the public. CEO Lucas Dobbins articulated a vision of licensing infrastructure that permits certain tokenized assets to trade in a regulated environment, with the aim of a future where tokenized equities, bonds and RWAs sit alongside cryptocurrencies, markets run continuously, and settlement happens near-instantly. Dobbins highlighted that the current on-chain universe of tokenized assets—roughly $26 billion—represents a proof of concept rather than the full potential. He pointed to forecasts that tokenized markets could reach around $2 trillion by 2030, while research from the Boston Consulting Group has suggested a possible opportunity as high as $16 trillion. The momentum here is reinforced by statements that the on-ramp to regulated, compliant markets is now a practical objective rather than speculative theory, with major banks moving from pilot projects to product launches.
Key takeaways
- Australian regulator-facing exchange BTC Markets intends to pursue a markets license with ASIC to offer regulated tokenized RWAs, signaling a formal regulatory pathway for asset tokenization in Australia.
- The on-chain value of tokenized RWAs sits at about $26.5 billion, with Ethereum commanding the largest share at 57.4% of the market, excluding layer-2 and EVM platforms.
- Analysts project a broad spectrum of potential size for tokenized markets: around $2 trillion by 2030, and up to $16 trillion per the Boston Consulting Group, underscoring the scale of the opportunity.
- Tokenized RWAs are moving from theory to practice as institutions like BlackRock, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan push real products into the market, while exchanges such as Kraken and Robinhood have begun offering tokenized RWAs in 2025.
- Australia’s regulatory environment, deep capital markets and one of the world’s largest pension systems position the country to play a meaningful role in a next wave of tokenized finance, particularly in private markets, infrastructure investments, and fund distribution.
- Broader activity in the space includes Kraken’s xStocks platform and the xChange engine for tokenized stock trading, Robinhood’s tokenized stock initiatives in Europe, and Coinbase’s announced Coinbase Tokenize platform for RWAs.
Tickers mentioned: $ETH, $COIN
Market context: The move by BTC Markets aligns with a wider push across crypto and traditional finance toward regulated tokenized assets, supported by ongoing infrastructure development, larger institutional involvement, and clearer regulatory guidance in key markets. The activity also aligns with a trend where major exchanges and banks are exploring, piloting, or launching tokenized instruments to improve liquidity and access to capital.
Why it matters
Tokenized RWAs promise to extend the reach of traditional assets into a digital, on-chain ecosystem, potentially reducing settlement times and widening access to markets for otherwise illiquid assets. The Australian project’s emphasis on licensing infrastructure reflects a maturation of the space—from early blockchain pilots to regulated offerings that require compliance frameworks, custody solutions, and robust participant protections. If Australia succeeds in creating a trusted, licensable pathway for tokenized RWAs, it could attract both domestic and foreign capital seeking regulated exposure to real-world assets such as private equity, infrastructure projects, and fixed income instruments.
The broader market context is equally instructive. On-chain visibility for tokenized RWAs remains strong despite broader crypto market headwinds, with RWA.xyz reporting an on-chain total value of about $26.5 billion. Ethereum dominates the space, illustrating how core smart contract platforms are shaping the structure and accessibility of tokenized assets. This backdrop helps explain why institutions like BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan have already moved beyond pilots and are actively launching products in tokenized finance. The evolution is not just about trading tokens; it encompasses on-chain settlement, regulatory-compliant issuance, and the integration of RWAs into traditional trading rails.
BTC Markets’ leadership in pursuing a regulated model underscores a practical shift: tokenization can be anchored in rigorous compliance and investor protection while still delivering the efficiency and openness promised by blockchain-based markets. The Australian context—strong regulatory oversight, deep capital markets, and a robust pension framework—could serve as a proving ground for tokenized structures that other jurisdictions may later adopt or adapt. As Dobbins notes, the opportunity is not merely theoretical; the question is how quickly licensed market infrastructure can scale to meet demand while maintaining appropriate safeguards.
“What’s changed is that this is no longer theoretical. Institutions like BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan are already launching real products.”
“As regulatory clarity improves and infrastructure develops, Australia has the potential to play a meaningful role in the next phase of tokenized financial markets.”
Looking ahead, the first tangible use cases are expected to emerge in areas where tokenization can deliver meaningful efficiency gains—private markets, infrastructure investments, and fund distribution—where compliance, transparency, and access are paramount. In the meantime, platforms already in motion—with Kraken’s tokenized stock initiative via xStocks and the xChange on-chain trading engine, Robinhood’s European tokenized stock plans, and Coinbase’s upcoming Tokenize platform—signal a broader shift toward institutional-grade tokenized RWAs that complement rather than replace traditional markets.
The Australian context also points to a broader regulatory and infrastructural arc that could influence global adoption. The Digital Finance Cooperative Research Centre has highlighted a substantial potential to generate economic gains from tokenized markets in Australia, with estimates around AUD 24 billion per year (about USD 16.8 billion), representing roughly 1% of GDP. If current trajectories hold, the country could capture a fraction of that opportunity by 2030—but achieving scale will depend on licensed infrastructures that can trade tokenized assets within trusted, well-regulated frameworks. Dobbins emphasizes the need for these licensed pathways to unlock the full value of tokenization and to empower broader participation across private markets, infrastructure projects, and fund distribution channels.
What to watch next
- ASIC decisions and timetables on BTC Markets’ market license application, including interim licensing milestones and infrastructure requirements.
- Regulatory developments in Australia that outline the rulebook for tokenized RWAs, including custody, KYC/AML, and investor protections.
- Adoption milestones from major leaders in tokenized finance, including Kraken’s xStocks and xChange progress, and Coinbase Tokenize’s deployment plans for RWAs.
- Tracking on-chain RWAs total value as more assets tokenize, with Ethereum continuing to hold a large share of on-chain tokenized assets.
- Economic impact studies from Australia’s DFCRC and other market analyses that quantify uptake in private markets, infrastructure, and distribution channels as tokenized products mature.
Sources & verification
- BTC Markets’ tokenisation blog post outlining licensing plans: https://www.btcmarkets.net/blog/tokenisation-what-it-actually-means-for-australian-investors
- RWA on-chain value and share of Ethereum from RWA.xyz: https://app.rwa.xyz/ and tokenized RWAs article: https://cointelegraph.com/news/tokenized-rwas-climb-despite-crypto-market-rout
- Kraken’s tokenized stock initiatives (xStocks) and xChange platform: https://cointelegraph.com/news/kraken-xstocks-platform-xchange-engine-tokenized-stock-trading
- Intercontinental Exchange’s blockchain trading platform development for tokenized securities: https://cointelegraph.com/news/nyse-develops-blockchain-trading-platform-tokenized-stocks-etfs
- Coinbase Tokenize announcement: https://x.com/brian_armstrong/status/2001477102860931475
- Australia’s tokenization economic potential from the Digital Finance Cooperative Research Centre: https://cointelegraph.com/news/australia-digital-finance-17-billion-opportunity
Australia’s push toward tokenized RWAs could reshape regulated markets
BTC Markets’ move to seek a markets license with ASIC marks a pivotal step in the practical deployment of tokenized RWAs in a regulated environment. While tokenized assets have already demonstrated significant on-chain activity, the transition from proof of concept to regulated market infrastructure requires robust custody, compliance, and risk controls. The company’s statement suggests a strategic intent to align with investor protection standards while expanding the spectrum of tradable on-chain instruments beyond cryptocurrency, setting the stage for a future where tokenized equities, bonds, and real-world assets coexist with digital assets in a single, regulated marketplace.
The broader market context remains favorable for continued growth in tokenized finance, provided that regulatory clarity keeps pace with technology and market needs. Australia’s regulatory readiness, combined with deep capital markets and a large pension system, could attract both domestic and international participants seeking regulated exposure to RWAs. As the space evolves, institutional engagement—evidenced by BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan’s efforts—will likely drive further product development and liquidity, while on-chain tooling and platform interoperability will be critical to sustaining the momentum. In this dynamic landscape, Australia’s experiment may offer a blueprint for how licensed, compliant tokenized markets can scale responsibly, delivering the promised efficiency gains without compromising investor protection.
Michael Saylor’s Strategy has bought a whopping amount of BTC in its latest move.
Strategy, the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin holder, has announced a massive purchase worth $1.28 billion.
The firm bought a total of 17,994 BTC at an average price of $70,946 per unit. This may explain last week’s surge in prices.
With this, Strategy now holds a whopping 738,731 BTC, which it acquired for approximately $56 billion at an average price of $75,862 per bitcoin.
Strategy has acquired 17,994 BTC for ~$1.28 billion at ~$70,946 per bitcoin. As of 3/8/2026, we hodl 738,731 $BTC acquired for ~$56.04 billion at ~$75,862 per bitcoin. $MSTR $STRChttps://t.co/1fkG7ehye1
— Strategy (@Strategy) March 9, 2026
The industry remains torn on the firm’s approach, with some analysts and observers criticizing the plan to leverage company shares to buy Bitcoin exclusively. That said, at the time of this writing, Strategy sits on an unrealized loss of about $6 billion, as BTC prices went through serious volatility today.
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Another shocking Monday for the energy market. Last week’s start was remembered for a bullish gap of more than 10% (which was later followed by a pullback), but today’s market open proved even more volatile (as reflected by the ATR indicator). After a bullish gap of roughly 11%, the price continued to climb, reaching a peak of around $114 per barrel of WTI during the Asian session. This is the highest price since 2022.
The drivers of the rally are obvious – the escalation of the war in the Middle East, with more countries becoming involved. Risks have reached a critical point, with discussions emerging around the scenario of a complete blockade of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. In such a case, oil-producing countries could invoke force majeure as grounds for halting supplies.
Technical Analysis of the XTI/USD Chart
Analysing the oil price chart a week ago, we assumed that the $70 level would act as support. Indeed, the market remained above this psychological level, while rising highs and lows reflected traders’ concerns.
Extreme volatility must be taken into account when applying classical technical patterns. Today, the oil price chart allows us to draw a broad ascending channel with a steep slope. In this context, it is worth noting (as indicated by the arrows):
→ the rapid rise in oil prices within the upper quarter of the channel;
→ the subsequent reversal and a swift decline towards the median.
This price action (essentially resembling a Bearish Engulfing pattern) points to a sharp shift in sentiment.
From the bulls’ perspective → the median of the wide channel, reinforced by the psychological $100 level, may act as support.
However, judging by the extremely wide candle, during which the XTI/USD quote dropped from $111 to $100 today, it is reasonable to assume that the initiative currently lies with the bears. And even if a rebound from the median occurs, it may fade near the $105 level (which has already acted as resistance on lower timeframes).
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Crypto World
Japan Denies Releasing Strategic Oil Reserves Amid Middle East Tensions and Surging Crude Prices
TLDR:
- Japan holds the world’s third-largest petroleum reserves, covering roughly 254 days of domestic consumption needs.
- Over 90% of Japan’s crude oil imports pass through the Strait of Hormuz, raising serious energy security concerns.
- Brent crude briefly surged near $120 per barrel, marking one of the sharpest oil price spikes seen in decades.
- Governments discussing strategic reserve releases signal preparations for a broader, potentially global energy supply shock.
Japan’s strategic oil reserves have become a focal point amid escalating Middle East tensions. Tokyo has denied making any final decision on releasing emergency petroleum stockpiles.
Reports earlier suggested Japan was preparing to tap its reserves. Officials say the government is closely monitoring developments before acting. Brent crude briefly surged near $120 per barrel.
This marks one of the sharpest price increases in recent decades. Global energy markets remain on edge.
Japan Monitors Middle East Crisis as Oil Prices Surge
Japan’s government confirmed no final call has been made on releasing strategic petroleum. Officials stated Tokyo is actively watching the Middle East conflict before committing to action.
The situation remains fluid, and energy markets are reacting accordingly. Any formal decision would carry major weight given Japan’s deep crude oil dependency.
Crypto and markets analyst Coin Bureau noted the broader context on social media. The account referenced past crises, including the 1990 Gulf War and the 2011 Fukushima disaster.
Both events prompted emergency energy responses across major economies. This context places the current situation in serious historical company.
Brent crude briefly touched near $120 per barrel amid growing uncertainty. That price level represents one of the largest spikes seen in decades.
Energy traders are pricing in potential supply disruptions stemming from the region. Market volatility is expected to continue as long as regional tensions persist.
Japan holds the world’s third-largest petroleum reserves, behind the United States and China. Its emergency stockpiles cover approximately 254 days of domestic consumption.
Releasing those barrels could help stabilize global supply chains considerably. It could also bring some measured relief to volatile crude prices worldwide.
Strait of Hormuz Disruption Puts Japan’s Energy Security at Risk
The Strait of Hormuz remains central to this rapidly developing energy story. Roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply passes through this single waterway.
Any disruption there would send strong shockwaves through global energy markets. Japan stands among the most exposed nations to such a supply scenario.
More than 90% of Japan’s crude oil imports travel through the Strait of Hormuz. This makes the country particularly sensitive to any blockage or regional conflict.
Strategic reserves exist precisely to buffer economies against sudden supply shocks. Their potential use shows how seriously Tokyo views the current threat.
As Coin Bureau posted: “Even discussing a release tells you something — Governments are preparing for a potential GLOBAL energy shock.” Governments that discuss reserve releases are typically preparing for a broader disruption.
This pattern has held true across several major historical energy crises. The current conversation around Japan’s reserves follows that same well-established logic.
For now, Tokyo maintains a cautious, wait-and-watch stance on the matter. However, if the Hormuz disruption worsens, strategic reserves may become essential.
Japan’s response could set the tone for other energy-dependent nations watching closely. The coming days will determine how far this energy crisis escalates.
Bitcoin (BTC) displayed strength as it traded above $67,000 on Monday, after producing the first bullish weekly close in seven weeks. Meanwhile, oil prices exploded as the Middle East conflict prompted fears of a major supply shortage.
Key takeaways:
-
Bitcoin holds firm above $67,000 as oil prices surge to the highest level since 2022.
-
The biggest oil supply shock in history triggers global inflation worries.
-
A bullish inverted hammer on the weekly chart suggests a potential BTC bottom.
Global oil supply shock sparks inflation worries
Data from TradingView showed oil futures rose to $119 during early Asian trading hours on Monday, as the escalating Middle East conflict raised fears of supply disruptions.
This is the highest price oil has reached since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022.
The latest surge in oil prices came as Iraq warned that roughly 3 million barrels per day of production could be disrupted due to Iranian threats against tankers in the Strait of Hormuz.
Related: Bitcoin preps fresh trend line showdown as weekly close sparks $60K target
Capital markets commentator The Kobeissi Letter said the world is now experiencing the “largest oil supply shock in history,” losing nearly 20 million barrels of oil supply daily.
Despite the exploding oil prices, US President Donald Trump said it’s a “small price” to pay for peace.
“Short-term oil prices, which will drop rapidly when the destruction of the Iran nuclear threat is over, is a very small price to pay for U.S.A., and world, safety and peace.”
Meanwhile, the sharp rise in oil prices and the imminent supply shock have revived global inflation concerns, with markets seeing few chances of rate cuts in 2026.
Polymarket bettors are pricing in a roughly 99% probability that the Federal Reserve leaves rates unchanged at its March 18 meeting, with only about a 27% chance of a 25-basis-point cut in 2026.
Leaving rates unchanged tightens financial conditions, boosts the dollar, and pressures Bitcoin, which often sees short-term volatility as investors rotate capital into safe havens like gold.
Has Bitcoin price already bottomed?
At the time of writing, Bitcoin traded around $67,000 with little sign of panic selling, suggesting that traders treated the spike as an energy-specific shock rather than a broad risk-off event.
“Bitcoin’s refusal to go down when the rest of the market is burning is one of the strongest indications I’ve seen yet that the bottom could be in,” analyst Brian Brookshire said in an X post on Monday, adding:
“If there were even the slightest hint of froth in Bitcoin, it would have panic-sold off 10% into the futures open.”
Despite being rejected from the $74,000 resistance level, the BTC/USD pair still produced the “first positive weekly candle in 7 weeks,” founder and CEO at CoinBureau Nic said on Monday.
The price action has also formed an “inverted hammer, which could indicate a potential bullish reversal,” Nic added.
An inverted hammer weekly candle is a bullish reversal pattern found at the end of a downtrend. It features a small body at the lower end, little to no lower wick, and a long upper wick at least twice the size of the body. It signals that buyers are challenging sellers, potentially reversing the trend.
Thus, Bitcoin could move higher if this pattern is confirmed by a strong bullish follow-through candle this week, with higher volume to break overhead resistance.
As Cointelegraph reported, spikes in oil prices immediately after conflicts tend to be short-lived, with Bitcoin outperforming over the longer term.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
Prediction markets are expanding rapidly, with multiple platforms introducing new ways for users to trade on real-world outcomes.
But as sports are increasingly driving volume in these markets, some founders tend to believe that theinfrastructure itself has to evolve.
In the following conversation, Amit Mahensaria explains why his company PRED is built around an exchange model rather than a traditional sportsbook. He also explains how it approaches liquidity and speed in live sports trading, as well as why hebelieves aligned incentives between platfrom and traders are particularly important when it comes to building long-term trust.
PRED positions itself as a true peer-to-peer sports prediction exchange rather than a sportsbook or a house-backed market. For readers familiar with platforms like Polymarket or Kalshi, what are the most important structural differences in how PRED runs markets, makes money, and treats users?
The simplest way to understand PRED is this: we are an exchange, not a sportsbook. On a traditional sportsbook, you trade against the house. The house sets the odds, takes the other side of your position, and profits when you lose. That creates a fundamental conflict of interest, and it’s why every major sportsbook in the world eventually limits or bans their best customers.
On PRED, users trade directly with each other. We match buyers and sellers. We never take the other side of your trade, and we never take a directional position against our users. Our revenue comes from trading fees on matched orders. We make money when people trade, not when people lose. That alignment changes everything.
Compared to Polymarket or Kalshi, the key difference is that we’re purpose-built for sports. Right now, these general-purpose prediction markets are deriving majority volume through sports, but it is coincidental, they are not designed for sports. PRED is sports trading infrastructure from the ground up. That means features like cross-matching, where a single order on one outcome automatically generates liquidity across all related outcomes in the same match. It means capital efficiency mechanics where your collateral works harder because the system understands the structure of sports markets. And it means live match handling that’s designed for the high speed and volatility of in-play sports, not tweet speculation or political events.
Polymarket proved that on-chain prediction markets work. We’re building the next step: specialised infrastructure for the world’s largest prediction market, which is sports.
Speed and liquidity are everything in live sports markets. You’ve said PRED is currently the fastest exchange for sports predictions—can you break down what that actually means in practice, and how your architecture on Base enables that performance advantage?
In live sports, a goal can shift a market by 30 or 40 percentage points in seconds. If your platform can’t keep up with that, traders either miss opportunities or get filled at stale prices. Both outcomes destroy trust.
We execute trades in under 200 milliseconds. To put that in context, most on-chain prediction platforms take multiple seconds to confirm a trade. Traditional sportsbooks can take even longer during peak moments because they’re adjusting lines. Our execution speed means that when you see a price on PRED, you can actually get it. That sounds basic, but it’s genuinely rare in this space.
We built on Base, Coinbase’s Layer 2, for three reasons. First, the transaction costs are fractions of a cent, which matters enormously for a trading use case where gas fees can eat into your edge. Second, we get sub-second finality, which is the baseline requirement for live sports markets. Third, the Base ecosystem is where serious consumer crypto applications are being built right now, and those users understand the DeFi primitives that make an exchange model work.
The combination of on-chain settlement with off-chain order matching gives us the transparency of blockchain with the performance of a centralised exchange. You get the speed which is needed for live sports.
Many traders in both Web2 sportsbooks and Web3 prediction markets worry about one thing above all else: getting banned for winning. PRED has taken a strong stance on never banning winners. Why was that policy non-negotiable for you, and what does it say about the kind of market you’re trying to build?
This one is personal. I’ve been involved in sports trading for over 22 years. I’ve watched the best analysts and traders I know get systematically shut out of platform after platform simply for being good at what they do. They spend half their time on logistics, spreading funds across accounts, using friends and family, hunting for books that haven’t limited them yet. It’s absurd.
The reason sportsbooks ban winners is structural, not personal. When the house is your counterparty, every dollar you win is a dollar they lose. Of course they’re going to remove the people who cost them the most money. It’s rational behaviour within a broken model.
On an exchange, that incentive doesn’t exist. We don’t take the other side of your trade. The more skilled traders we attract, the more volume they generate, the deeper our markets become, and the better the experience gets for everyone. Winning traders are our most valuable users, not our biggest liability.
This wasn’t some marketing decision. It’s a direct consequence of our exchange architecture. We structurally cannot profit from your losses, so we have zero incentive to punish your wins. That’s the kind of market I wanted to build from day one: one where skill is rewarded, not penalised.
One of PRED’s talked-about features is the 5–6% native yield on user deposits, which is rare in prediction markets today. How does this yield work mechanically, and why did you feel it was important to design capital efficiency into the core user experience rather than treat it as an add-on?
Think about what happens on a traditional sportsbook or even most prediction platforms. You deposit funds, and that capital sits idle until you place a trade. If you’re waiting for the right market or the right price, your money is doing nothing. On some platforms, your deposits might sit uninvested for days or weeks while you’re being selective about your entries.
On PRED, your deposited capital earns yield while it’s in your account. We’ve partnered with global institutions to generate yield on the underlying stablecoin deposits. Also since we don’t have huge marketing costs like deposit bonus, we are able to pass on a portion of our trading fees to the users in the form of yield. Your capital is working for you even when you’re not actively trading.
We designed this into the core experience because capital efficiency is something serious traders think about constantly. If you’re a professional, the opportunity cost of idle capital matters. Offering native yield means traders can keep larger balances on PRED without feeling like they’re sacrificing returns elsewhere. It removes a friction point that most platforms don’t even acknowledge exists.
This is also a statement about how we think about the relationship between a platform and its users. Your money should work for you. That’s a simple principle, but almost nobody in this industry follows it.
Your earlier career spans investment banking, private equity, and building Impartus into a scaled edtech platform that saw real institutional adoption. How did that background shape your thinking around market design, incentives, and long-term trust when building PRED?
Each chapter taught me something different. Investment banking and private equity gave me a deep understanding of how markets work, how liquidity is structured, and how incentive alignment between participants determines whether a market thrives or collapses. You learn quickly that markets only work sustainably when the operator’s interests are aligned with the participants.
Building Impartus, which was acquired by upGrad and scaled to two million users, taught me something completely different. It taught me how to build products that earn users and institutional trust over time. They adopt because you prove reliability, transparency, and consistent delivery. That patience and focus on earned trust is something I brought directly to PRED.
And then there’s the 22 years of sports trading that runs underneath all of it. That’s where I experienced firsthand every problem PRED is built to solve. Getting limited, getting banned, slow platforms, pain of cashing out, watching platforms change the rules, watching the industry punish skill. That frustration is what made me want to build the alternative.
The combination of those experiences is why PRED isn’t just a crypto product with sports bolted on. It’s built by someone who understands both market infrastructure and the specific pain points of being a serious sports trader in a system that’s designed to work against you.
Unlike many crypto products that prioritize short-term speculation, PRED emphasizes running a fair market rather than taking directional risk. How do you think this “exchange-first” philosophy changes user behavior and retention over time, especially among serious sports traders?
When users trust that the platform isn’t working against them, their behaviour changes fundamentally. They deploy more capital. They trade more frequently. They think longer-term about their strategies instead of constantly looking over their shoulder wondering when they’ll get limited.
On traditional platforms, skilled traders develop adversarial habits. They spread their activity across multiple accounts. They deliberately lose some trades to avoid triggering algorithms. They keep balances low because they don’t trust the platform with large amounts. All of that suppresses volume and creates a worse market for everyone.
On an exchange where the rules are transparent and the incentives are aligned, traders can just focus on what they’re good at: analysing sports and taking positions. That might sound simple, but it’s actually a radical change from how most of this industry operates.
In terms of retention, the logic is straightforward. If you’re not going to get banned for being good, why would you leave? The biggest churn driver in sports trading is platform distrust. Remove that, and you build a community of committed, high-quality traders who generate consistent volume. That’s the foundation of a healthy exchange.
Looking ahead, what does success for PRED look like in the next 12–24 months—is it about volume, liquidity depth, new sports, or redefining how prediction markets fit into the broader Web3 financial stack?
Honestly, it’s all of those things, but if I had to prioritise, it starts with liquidity depth. Volume numbers can be misleading. What matters is whether a trader can come to PRED, find a market they want to trade, and get filled at a competitive price with real depth behind it. That’s the core promise, and everything else follows from it.
In the near term, we’re focused on building a base of serious, active traders rather than chasing signup numbers. I’d rather have a few thousand committed traders generating real, sustainable liquidity than hundreds of thousands of casual signups with no depth behind them. The quality of users matters more than quantity, especially in the early stages of an exchange.
Expanding into new markets is absolutely on the roadmap. We launched with major leagues in Soccer (EPL, UCL, La Liga) and will expand into other sports soon. And not only new sports, but even within a sport or a league, launching diverse markets that cater to varying users. Sports will drive a lot of innovation, like combination as well as conditional predictions. The infrastructure we’ve built is designed for trading to scale across any sport with verifiable outcomes.
The bigger picture is about where prediction markets sit within Web3 finance. I think we’re still in the early stages of people understanding that sports outcomes are a tradeable asset class with real analytical depth, not just entertainment.
We raised $2.5 million led by Accel with participation from Coinbase Ventures, and that backing reflects confidence in this thesis. We’re building for the long term, not the next cycle.
Disclaimer: The content shared in this interview is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or endorsement of any project, protocol, or asset. The cryptocurrency space involves risk and volatility. Readers are encouraged to conduct their own research and consult with qualified professionals before making any financial decisions. This interview was conducted in cooperation with PRED, who generously shared their time and insights. The content has been reviewed and approved for publication in mutual understanding. Minor edits have been made for clarity and readability, while preserving the substance and tone of the original conversation.
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Crypto World
Bitcoin (BTC) price stays calm while other markets panic. Key levels to watch: Crypto Daybook Americas
By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
Bitcoin and the broader crypto market stayed resilient Monday as an oil price surge above $100 shook Asian markets and triggered a drop in U.S. stock futures. The crypto calm may be shattered if bitcoin moves outside the $60,000- $75,000 range, data on major market participants’ positions suggests.
It’s solidly within that range at the moment, though. The leading cryptocurrency by market value has risen over 3% since early Asian hours to trade around $68,000. The rally follows a week of back-and-forth action that saw the price rise to nearly $74,000 only to drop back to $67,000 over the weekend. The CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20), ether (ETH), XRP (XRP), solana (SOL) saw similar increases.
This resilience to the war in the Middle East and risk-off sentiment in global stocks likely stems from the earlier outperformance of U.S. equities and the cryptocurrency’s oversold status. Nothing reflects the crypto calm better than BTC’s 30-day implied volatility index, BVIV, which remains steady around 60%. Wall Street’s volatility indexes, meantime, the equity VIX, the oil VIX and the gold VIX have all surged to multiweek highs, indicating panic in traditional markets.
Bitcoin market makers — those entities tasked with creating order book liquidity and ensuring seamless trading — are “short gamma” at $60,000 and $75,000. This means that if the market moves beyond those levels, they could trade in the direction of the price movement to rebalance their net exposure back to neutral. In other words, they may sell BTC as its price drops and buy when it rises, accentuating volatility.
“If we look at the Deribit GEX (gamma exposure chart) we see dealers are short a lot of gamma at the $60k level and the $75k levels … essentially the ceiling and floor of the box. Should markets actually trade beyond the box, negative gamma will make things worse from a dealer rebalancing perspective,” Amberdata’s Director of Derivatives Greg Magadini said in an email.
He added that traders are looking at the same levels and have hedged their own exposure at the ceiling and floor. Stay alert!
Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today
What to Watch
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.
- Crypto
- March 9: Solstice and Kamino to announce a new product or feature.
- Macro
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
- March 9: Sharplink (SBET), pre-market, $0.31
Token Events
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.
- Governance votes & calls
- Convex Finance is voting on Curve Ownership DAO Vote ID: 1358, which would onboard GHO as a Pegkeeper with a 3 million crvUSD debt ceiling. Voting ends March 9.
- Lido DAO is voting to make the delegate incentivization program (DIP 2.0) a permanent governance mechanism. Voting ends March 9.
- Lido DAO is voting to authorize a one-time $5 million DAO Treasury allocation into the upcoming Lido Earn ETH and USD Vaults. Voting ends March 9.
- Lido DAO is voting on whether Stakin (recently acquired by The Tie) should continue operating as a node operator and whether to approve updating Stakin’s on-chain name and reward address. Voting ends March 9.
- Unlocks
- Token Launches
- March 9: Nexira’s (NEXI) token generation event occurs, token to be listed on KuCoin.
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.
Market Movements
- BTC is up 0.68% from 4 p.m. ET Sunday at $67,649.34 (24hrs: -0.36%)
- ETH is up 1.89% at $1,995.45 (24hrs: +1.12%)
- CoinDesk 20 is up 1.04% at 1,943.48 (24hrs: +0.12%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 9 bps at 2.64%
- BTC funding rate is at -0.0025% (-5.8613% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is up 0.30% at 99.2812
- Gold futures are down 0.70% at $5,110.00
- Silver futures are up 0.21% at $84.00
- Nikkei 225 closed down 5.20% at 52,728.72
- Hang Seng closed down 1.35% at 25,408.46
- FTSE 100 is down 1.22% at 10,159.26
- Euro Stoxx 50 is down 1.70% at 5,622.84
- DJIA closed on Friday down 0.95% at 47,501.55
- S&P 500 closed down 1.33% at 6,740.02
- Nasdaq Composite closed down 1.59% at 22,387.68
- S&P/TSX Composite closed down 1.57% at 33,083.70
- U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is up 4 bps at 4.18%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.90% at 6,682.75
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.96% at 24,434.00
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 1.04% at 47,024.00
Bitcoin Stats
- BTC Dominance: 59.04% (0.62%)
- Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.02951 (0.51%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,005 EH/s
- Hashprice (spot): $29.61
- Total fees: 1.96 BTC / $131,828
- CME Futures Open Interest: 100,675 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 13.3 oz.
- BTC vs gold market cap: 4.56%
Technical Analysis
- The chart shows daily swings in bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility index, BVIV, in candlestick format.
- The index is hovering close to the upper end of its recent range.
- A potential breakout would mean higher volatility and risk aversion, leading to losses in bitcoin.
Crypto Equities
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Friday at $197.22 (-4.13%), -0.84% at $195.57 in pre-market
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $20.56 (-9.57%), -0.17% at $20.52
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $8.01 (-8.67%), -0.12% at $8.00
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $14.16 (-9.20%), -1.38% at $13.97
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $14.86 (-7.13%), -0.54% at $14.78
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.21 (-7.44%), -0.43% at $9.17
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $10.90 (-2.50%)
- CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF (WGMI): closed at $36.07 (-8.10%), -0.80% at $35.78
- Circle Internet Group (CRCL): closed at $101.91 (-3.62%), +1.24% at $103.17
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $34.96 (-0.17%), -1.34% at $34.49
Crypto Treasury Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $133.53 (-4.49%), +0.25% at $133.86
- Strive Asset Management (ASST): closed at $8.70 (-5.95%), -0.23% at $8.68
- Sharplink (SBET): closed at $7.36 (-7.19%), +2.45% at $7.54
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $0.90 (-6.44%), +4.44% at $0.94
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.14 (+0.88%)
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs
- Daily net flows: -$348.9 million
- Cumulative net flows: $55.35 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~ 1.28 million
Spot ETH ETFs
- Daily net flows: -$82.9 million
- Cumulative net flows: $11.66 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~ 5.64 million
Source: Farside Investors
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