Connect with us

Crypto World

History Is Rhyming: Altseason Indicators Mirror Pre-2021 Crypto Setup

Published

on

Brian Armstrong's Bold Prediction: AI Agents Will Soon Dominate Global Financial

TLDR:

  • Altseason indicator shows BTC and ETH losing dominance over the broader market. 
  • Weekly RSI divergence signals fading momentum and market compression. 
  • Market structure mirrors pre-2021 altseason patterns, hinting at rotation. 
  • Selective altcoins with strong utility may lead the next crypto expansion.

The altseason indicator update shows early signs that the crypto market may rotate away from BTC and ETH dominance toward altcoins. Historical patterns suggest momentum is weakening, and price structure is compressing ahead of potential altcoin expansion.

Market Structure Suggests Altcoin Pressure

The altseason indicator tracks the dominance of total stablecoins, BTC, and ETH relative to the broader market. It identifies when capital shifts from major coins to altcoins.

Since January, the price has moved sideways within a tight consolidation range. This mirrors the market structure seen before the 2021 altseason, where BTC and ETH dominance first formed a clear distribution zone.

Recently, the price pushed into resistance levels, suggesting a potential bull trap. The weekly RSI shows divergence from the price, signaling a gradual weakening of buying momentum.

Momentum divergence indicates the market may be coiling for a structural move. Such compression phases can last weeks, yet historically they precede rapid rotations into altcoins.

Advertisement

The current setup reflects a pause between distribution and rotation. During this phase, price may appear stagnant, but capital quietly prepares for the next move.

Historical comparisons show that similar patterns led to the largest altcoin expansions of the last cycle. Dominance breakdowns often trigger rapid, aggressive capital flows into select tokens.

Market compression also makes timing uncertain. RSI and price may remain in a tight range for several weeks, yet the structural pressure continues to build.

A fading RSI often precedes volatility spikes in a classic pre-altseason environment, where leading altcoins outperform before widespread rotation.

Advertisement

Tokens with strong fundamentals and relative strength against BTC and ETH often separate from weaker assets early.

Strategic Focus for the Next Altseason

If BTC and ETH dominance break down, historical trends indicate capital may rapidly move into selected altcoins. The 2021 dominance collapses caused significant gains for top-performing tokens.

Not all altcoins are likely to participate equally. Market maturity ensures capital favors projects with real utility, robust tokenomics, and strong social ecosystems.

Traders should monitor relative strength metrics. Projects outperforming BTC and ETH often lead early in rotation phases. This selective approach maximizes gains while reducing exposure to weaker assets.

Advertisement

Price compression, momentum divergence, and structural similarities to past cycles suggest the market is near a decision point. Early movers may benefit significantly.

Patience is critical during this stage. Investors focusing on quality projects with strong fundamentals may profit when capital rotates rapidly into leading altcoins.

 

Advertisement

Source link

Continue Reading
Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Crypto World

Hyperliquid Will Hit $150 by Mid 2026, Predicts BitMEX’s Arthur Hayes

Published

on

Hyperliquid Will Hit $150 by Mid 2026, Predicts BitMEX's Arthur Hayes

Hyperliquid (HYPE) may hit $150 by August, according to BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes.

Key takeaways:

  • CEX volume rotation and demand for macro-linked markets, including oil, are boosting HYPE’s bull case.

  • A cup-and-handle setup is hinting at an initial breakout toward $50.

CEX to DEX rotation can grow HYPE prices fivefold

In a post published on Monday, Hayes said that if Hyperliquid keeps pulling derivatives volume away from centralized exchanges (CEX) and expands its product suite, HYPE could climb roughly fivefold from around $30.

To make it happen, Hyperliquid’s 30-day annualized revenue run rate must rise to $1.40 billion by August from $843 million in March.

Advertisement
CEX to DEX rotation (black line) chart. Source: Defi Llama

Such growth is achievable if the platform captures another 3.96% share of derivatives volume from centralized exchanges after already absorbing roughly 6% as of March.

Hyperliquid uses about 97% of its revenue to buy HYPE tokens from the open market. Therefore, most of the money the platform makes is used to buy its own token, which can support the price if trading activity keeps rising.

That structure, Hayes said, boosts HYPE’s odds of rising toward $150.

Tokenized oil boom: Hyperliquid’s bull case

Hayes’s bullish call came as the US–Iran war turned oil into Hyperliquid’s top-traded assets.

On Tuesday, CL-USDC, its crude oil-linked perpetual pair, reached about $1.29 billion in 24-hour volume, overtaking ETH-USDC at roughly $1.24 billion, showing traders are increasingly using the platform to bet on traditional assets, not just crypto.

Advertisement
Top-10 traded pairs on Hyperliquid. Source: Hyperliquid

The trend also supports Hayes’s broader HIP-3 thesis. HIP-3 lets users launch perpetual markets permissionlessly by staking HYPE, and Hayes said newer listings tied to oil, gold, silver and major US indexes are already gaining traction.

Related: Oil retreats from 25% surge as G7 weighs emergency reserve release

He argued that HIP-3 now contributes nearly 10% of Hyperliquid’s revenue and could grow revenue by 160% in the coming months if the DEX keeps offering macro assets like gold and oil.

HIP-3 monthly revenue statistics. Source: Maelstrom

Last year, Maelstrom, a family office fund tied to Arthur Hayes, predicted declines in HYPE prices due to $11.90 billion in token unlocks. Since then, the Hyperliquid token has fallen by roughly 40%.

HYPE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

Still, Hayes has also made several high-profile calls that did not play out.

That includes Bitcoin targets of $250,000 by the end of 2025 and $200,000 by March 2026, as well as a January 2025 call for TRUMP memecoin to hit a $100 billion market cap by inauguration.

HYPE technicals hint at initial breakout toward $50

From a technical perspective, HYPE may rally toward $50 in March or by April, based on a cup-and-handle pattern.

Advertisement

A cup-and-handle forms after a rounded recovery and a brief consolidation. It confirms when price breaks above the neckline resistance, with upside typically measured by the pattern’s maximum height.

HYPE/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

Applying the technical rule to HYPE gives a measured upside target of around $50 if the price breaks decisively above the $35.50 neckline resistance. If the pattern plays out, it will result in gains of more than 40% from current levels.

Conversely, a pullback from $35.50 could push the HYPE price initially toward $30, a level aligning with the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement line and the 50-day exponential moving average (50-day EMA, the red wave).