Crypto World
History Is Rhyming: Altseason Indicators Mirror Pre-2021 Crypto Setup
TLDR:
- Altseason indicator shows BTC and ETH losing dominance over the broader market.
- Weekly RSI divergence signals fading momentum and market compression.
- Market structure mirrors pre-2021 altseason patterns, hinting at rotation.
- Selective altcoins with strong utility may lead the next crypto expansion.
The altseason indicator update shows early signs that the crypto market may rotate away from BTC and ETH dominance toward altcoins. Historical patterns suggest momentum is weakening, and price structure is compressing ahead of potential altcoin expansion.
Market Structure Suggests Altcoin Pressure
The altseason indicator tracks the dominance of total stablecoins, BTC, and ETH relative to the broader market. It identifies when capital shifts from major coins to altcoins.
Since January, the price has moved sideways within a tight consolidation range. This mirrors the market structure seen before the 2021 altseason, where BTC and ETH dominance first formed a clear distribution zone.
Recently, the price pushed into resistance levels, suggesting a potential bull trap. The weekly RSI shows divergence from the price, signaling a gradual weakening of buying momentum.
Momentum divergence indicates the market may be coiling for a structural move. Such compression phases can last weeks, yet historically they precede rapid rotations into altcoins.
The current setup reflects a pause between distribution and rotation. During this phase, price may appear stagnant, but capital quietly prepares for the next move.
Historical comparisons show that similar patterns led to the largest altcoin expansions of the last cycle. Dominance breakdowns often trigger rapid, aggressive capital flows into select tokens.
Market compression also makes timing uncertain. RSI and price may remain in a tight range for several weeks, yet the structural pressure continues to build.
A fading RSI often precedes volatility spikes in a classic pre-altseason environment, where leading altcoins outperform before widespread rotation.
Tokens with strong fundamentals and relative strength against BTC and ETH often separate from weaker assets early.
Strategic Focus for the Next Altseason
If BTC and ETH dominance break down, historical trends indicate capital may rapidly move into selected altcoins. The 2021 dominance collapses caused significant gains for top-performing tokens.
Not all altcoins are likely to participate equally. Market maturity ensures capital favors projects with real utility, robust tokenomics, and strong social ecosystems.
Traders should monitor relative strength metrics. Projects outperforming BTC and ETH often lead early in rotation phases. This selective approach maximizes gains while reducing exposure to weaker assets.
Price compression, momentum divergence, and structural similarities to past cycles suggest the market is near a decision point. Early movers may benefit significantly.
Patience is critical during this stage. Investors focusing on quality projects with strong fundamentals may profit when capital rotates rapidly into leading altcoins.
Bitcoin could reach $1 million per coin if it captures a meaningful share of the global store-of-value market, according to a new memo from Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise Asset Management.
Summary
- Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan says Bitcoin could reach $1 million if it captures about 17% of the global store-of-value market.
- The analysis frames Bitcoin as a competitor to gold, which currently dominates the store-of-value sector.
- Increasing adoption through spot Bitcoin ETFs and institutional investment could help drive Bitcoin’s market share higher.
Bitcoin’s path to $1M runs through gold’s market: Bitwise CIO
In the memo titled “How Bitcoin Gets to $1 Million,” Hougan argues that Bitcoin’s (BTC) long-term valuation depends largely on its ability to compete with traditional store-of-value assets such as gold and government bonds.
Hougan estimates the global store-of-value market at roughly $38 trillion, with Bitcoin currently accounting for only a small portion of that total.
The largest share is held by gold, which he describes as Bitcoin’s most direct competitor.
According to the analysis, if the store-of-value market grows to around $120 trillion over the next decade and Bitcoin captures roughly 17% of that market, the cryptocurrency could reach a valuation close to $1 million per coin.
Hougan argues that such a scenario is not as far-fetched as it once seemed, citing the rapid institutional adoption of Bitcoin in recent years.
A key factor driving that adoption has been the launch of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds in the United States, which have opened the asset class to pension funds, financial advisors and other institutional investors that previously had limited access to crypto markets.
Hougan said these developments have helped position Bitcoin as a legitimate macro asset alongside traditional stores of value. As institutional allocations increase and global demand for non-sovereign assets grows, Bitcoin could gradually gain market share within the broader store-of-value ecosystem.
“As I see it, the base case—that the store-of-value market will continue to grow as it has, and bitcoin will continue to gain market share as it has—leads you to much, much higher prices than we have today,” Hougan wrote.
The memo stops short of predicting an exact timeline for the $1 million milestone, but suggests the target could be achievable within roughly a decade if Bitcoin adoption continues to expand and the broader market for store-of-value assets grows.
A US Senate Democrat says crypto and banking lobbies will both have to accept compromises amid a new proposal to move the crypto market structure bill forward.
Senator Angela Alsobrooks, a key Democrat on the Senate Banking Committee, said at an American Bankers Association event on Tuesday that she and Republican Senator Thom Tillis are working on a compromise proposal, but crypto and banking interests can’t let “perfect be the enemy of good.”
“All of us will probably walk away just a little bit unhappy,” she said. “What we don’t want is to have an unregulated system — to have crypto not regulated at all — and not to have the guardrails to allow a situation where we will have deposit flight.”
Banking groups, including the American Bankers Association, have pushed for the Senate to include a ban on third-party stablecoin yield payments in crypto market structure legislation pending in the Senate.
The groups argue that the payments are a deposit flight risk for bank accounts that could destabilize the banking system and that the ban would close a perceived loophole in the GENIUS Act, which banned stablecoin issuers from offering yield on their tokens.
Stablecoin yield payments are a popular way for crypto exchanges to entice customers, and crypto lobby groups have fought against the proposal to ban them.
The fight has stalled the crypto bill from moving forward, which outlines how market regulators would police crypto.
Senator Alsobrooks said that in negotiations for the GENIUS Act, lawmakers knew they’d have to “revisit the issue around interest and yield,” adding that crypto market structure legislation must address the issue of stablecoin yields so they don’t end up undermining the banking sector.
Related: Donald Trump takes swipe at banks over stalled crypto bill
“If it quacks like a duck and looks like a duck, it is a duck,” she said. “Making sure that we are not allowing bank-like products without bank-like protections — this is what we know is really important.”
Americans want stablecoin yield limits if banks at risk
Alsobrooks’ comments come as the American Bankers Association shared a survey finding that 42% of respondents agreed that Congress should ban stablecoin yields if there is any risk that it could reduce the amount of money available to banks.
The survey, conducted by Morning Consult on behalf of the lobby group and polling a national sample of 4,456 adults, also found that 84% agreed that a business providing bank-like services, like a savings product, should be “held to the same standards for consumer protection that banks are.”
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XRP price turned on Tuesday as the crypto market rallied, and after Brand Garlinghouse highlighted Ripple’s priorities for the year.
Summary
- XRP price has moved sideways in the past few weeks.
- Brad Garlinghouse highlighted the key priority areas for the company this year.
- The coin has formed a bullish divergence pattern, pointing to a rebound.
Ripple (XRP) token rose to $1.3895 from this week’s low of $1.3365. It has remained in this range in the past few weeks.
In an X post, Garlinghouse, Ripple Labs CEO, highlighted some of the top priorities the company is focusing on this year. He made the comment after traveling to three continents in five days, together with Monica Long, the president.
He expects the company to continue focusing on key areas like payments, custody, liquidity, and treasury management.
The company has already made some major announcements on this recently. For example, it launched Ripple Payments, a solution tailored to corporations, providing them with solutions like managed custody, unified collections, and advanced liquidity.
These solutions will be at the intersection of fiat and stablecoins, helping companies to save money and accelerate the speed of cash management.
Ripple Labs has also intensified its RLUSD growth recently. Data shows that the RLUSD stablecoin has accumulated over $1.6 billion in assets across Ethereum and XRP Ledger network. It will then roll out the coin to other chains, including Base and Polygon, through Wormhole.
Additionally, the developers launched the Permissioned DEX platform, which allows companies to take part in decentralized finance through a regulated platform. Its use case will be in areas like cross-border payments, fiat and stablecoin swaps, payroll management, and international payments.
XRP price prediction: Technical analysis
The three-day chart shows that the XRP price has drifted sideways in the past month as demand has remained thin. Indeed, spot XRP ETF inflows have been highly limited in this period, a sign that investors are remaining in the sidelines.
On the positive side, the Stochastic RSI has reversed and moved to the highest point in weeks. The Percentage Price Oscillator has formed a bullish crossover pattern.
Therefore, while the coin remains below all moving averages and the Ichimoku cloud, there is a possibility that it will rebound in the near term. If this happens, the next key target to watch will be at $1.6700, its highest point in February.
The bullish XRP price forecast will become invalid if it drops below the key support level at $1.3363.
A couple in western Paris was held hostage and forced to transfer roughly €900,000 ($980,000) in Bitcoin after three criminals posing as police officers broke into their home in what appears to be the latest crypto “wrench attack.”
Summary
- Three attackers posing as police forced their way into a home in Yvelines, threatening the victims with a knife and demanding a crypto transfer.
- The husband transferred roughly €900,000 in Bitcoin under duress before the suspects tied him up and fled.
- The attack adds to a surge of crypto-related kidnappings and extortion attempts in France, where criminals increasingly target digital asset holders.
The attack took place Monday morning in Le Chesnay-Rocquencourt in the Yvelines department, where the suspects rang the doorbell and claimed to be police officers.
When the woman opened the door, the men forced their way inside and threatened her with a knife, demanding that her partner transfer the cryptocurrency to a wallet under their control.
Under duress, the husband complied and transferred the equivalent of €900,000 in Bitcoin (BTC). The attackers then tied him up while the woman suffered minor injuries before the group fled the scene in a white van.
The woman later managed to free her husband and alert neighbors, ending the ordeal shortly after.
The Versailles prosecutor’s office has opened an investigation into charges including organized armed robbery, kidnapping and criminal conspiracy. The case is being handled by France’s Brigade for the Repression of Banditry (BRB), and no arrests had been reported so far.
France sees rise in crypto “wrench attacks”
The incident adds to a growing wave of so-called “wrench attacks,” where criminals use physical violence or coercion to force victims to hand over digital assets rather than attempting technical hacks.
France has emerged as a major hotspot for such crimes. Earlier reporting shows that the country has seen dozens of crypto-linked kidnappings and extortion attempts, with investors and their relatives increasingly targeted as the value of digital assets rises.
The number of verified wrench attacks worldwide jumped significantly in 2025, with France accounting for a notable share of incidents.
Recent cases include the kidnapping of relatives connected to cryptocurrency entrepreneurs and a string of violent robberies aimed at forcing victims to transfer crypto funds. Authorities have made arrests in some investigations, but the attacks continue to surface across the country.
Sentiment in the bitcoin market has flipped bullish and traders are betting on a rally above $80,000, with traders positioning for a rally above $80,000.
That’s the message from decentralized exchange offering on-chain trading in crypto futures and options.
“Current options pricing shows roughly a 35% probability that BTC will reach above $80K by the end of June,” Nick Forster, founder of on-chain options platform, Derive.xyz, told CoinDesk in an email. “Combined with the recovery in skew, this activity suggests many traders expect bitcoin to recover toward the $80K level between June and September.”
Options are derivative contracts that let you bet on BTC prices moving up or down, but with a inbuilt safety net that ensures you lose only a small upfront fee, not your whole account, if the bet fails. It’s akin to buying a lottery ticket.
A call lets you bet on price rallies, while a put lets you bet on price dumps. The latter is, therefore, seen as a protective hedge.
Traders typically track options skew – that telltale pricing gap between calls and puts – to sniff out where the market’s leaning. Calls pricier than puts indicates Bullish tilt, while put premium suggests otherwise.
BTC’s skew recovers
Bitcoin’s seven day and 30-day skews have clawed back to -6% from the -25% panic lows in early February, when BTC cratered toward $25,000.
The shift signals traders dialing back on protective puts – less crash hedging, more steady nerves.
“Despite earlier fears of a catastrophic crash of the crypto markets, derivatives markets suggest those concerns may have been overstated. BTC skew – a key measure of sentiment in options markets – has rebounded sharply from around -25% (normalized by at-the-money implied volatility) to roughly +10% today, signaling a significant shift away from aggressive downside hedging,” Forster said.
Skews based on leading centralized options exchange Deribit paint a similar picture.
According to Forster, put shorting (writing) has surged across venues in recent days, a sign that traders are willing to take on downside risk in exchange for premium, which is consistent with expectations of stabilizing or rising prices.
At press time, bitcoin changed hands near $70,000, up nearly 5% for the month, according to CoinDesk data.
XRP drifted lower in quiet trading as declining volume and repeated rejection near $1.44 kept the token trapped inside a tightening range.
News Background
- XRP continues to move largely in line with broader crypto sentiment, with no major token-specific catalysts driving recent price action. The token has spent much of the past week consolidating between roughly $1.34 and $1.44 as traders wait for a clearer directional signal.
- Despite muted market participation, activity on the XRP Ledger has picked up.
- Daily transaction counts have climbed to around 2.7 million, according to market data, reflecting rising network usage tied in part to real-world asset tokenization projects building on the chain. The value of tokenized assets on the network has approached roughly $461 million.
- While growing network activity suggests improving ecosystem fundamentals, traders remain focused on short-term technical levels as liquidity across crypto markets remains relatively thin.
-
Price Action Summary
- XRP slipped slightly to around $1.38 during the latest session
- The token traded inside a roughly $1.34–$1.44 range
- The session high near $1.44 came on a brief volume spike before sharp rejection
- Price later drifted back toward $1.38 as participation declined
Technical Analysis
- The most important move in the past session came when XRP briefly pushed toward $1.44 during a burst of trading activity before sellers quickly rejected the advance. That rejection reinforced the $1.43–$1.44 zone as near-term resistance.
- Following the failed breakout, XRP formed a series of lower highs on declining volume, suggesting momentum faded after the initial rally attempt. The token has since moved sideways near $1.38, with several tests of this level indicating it is acting as short-term support.
- Volume trends remain a key signal. Overall trading activity has contracted to well below its recent average, indicating traders are waiting for confirmation before taking larger positions.
- This type of compression — with price trapped between resistance near $1.44 and support closer to $1.34–$1.38 — often precedes a larger directional move once liquidity returns.
What traders say is next?
- Market participants are watching whether XRP can maintain support above the $1.34–$1.35 area.
- If that level holds, the token could remain in consolidation before attempting another breakout toward $1.44 and potentially $1.50 if momentum returns.
- A breakdown below $1.34, however, would weaken the consolidation structure and could expose the next downside zone around $1.30–$1.32.
Bitcoin touched $71,612 on Tuesday evening before settling back to $70,036 by Wednesday’s Asian session, as oil price slide revved up risk sentiment.
A key catalyst was a Wall Street Journal report that the International Energy Agency had proposed the largest crude reserve release in its history, exceeding the 182 million barrels released in 2022 after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The proposal responds to Persian Gulf production cuts that have removed roughly 6% of global oil output since the Iran war began, sending jet fuel and cooking gas prices soaring worldwide.
Brent crude dropped below $90 per barrel on Wednesday after plunging 11% in the prior session. That matters for crypto because oil has been the transmission mechanism connecting the Middle East conflict to every risk asset on the planet. Higher oil means stickier inflation, which means no rate cuts, which means tighter liquidity and further pressure for risk assets.
Bitcoin was trading at $70,036 on Wednesday morning after reaching as high as $71,612 on Tuesday evening, up 2.5% on the week. The move from Monday’s low near $66,000 to Tuesday’s high amounts to roughly 8.5% in two days, though the overnight pullback gave back some of those gains.
“Bitcoin trading above $70,000 tells you buyers are trying to push this market out of consolidation, but it still has to prove it can hold,” said Daniel Reis-Faria, CEO of ZeroStack, said in a mail. “The difference this time is that leverage had cooled off a bit before the move higher, which gives it a more stable setup.”
“Now it comes down to whether Bitcoin can stay above $70,000 and build from there, or whether it slips back into the same pattern we’ve been in for weeks,” he added.
Elsewhere, FxPro analysts noted that bitcoin is forming a series of higher local lows since the end of February, the first structural sign of buyers gaining confidence within the range.
But they flagged $73,000 as the level that matters, where last week’s peak and the 50-day moving average sit together.
The broader market was calm. Ether held at $2,034, down 0.3% on the day but up 2.8% on the week. BNB was flat at $643. XRP edged up 0.3% to $1.38 with a 1.7% weekly gain. Solana added 0.2% to $86.42 but remains down 0.8% over seven days, still the weakest major on a weekly basis.
Dogecoin was up 1% to $0.093, holding onto some of Tuesday’s Musk-driven gains.
The Fed meeting on March 17-18 remains the next major event. With oil potentially easing on the IEA reserve release, the stagflation scenario that had been pricing into markets last week looks slightly less severe.
If crude stays below $90, the argument for rate cuts later this year gets marginally stronger. Bitcoin’s 90-day correlation with the S&P 500 is still at 0.78. Whatever the Fed signals, crypto will trade it.
Ripple announced plans on Wednesday to secure an Australian Financial Services License through the proposed acquisition of BC Payments Australia Pty Ltd, per a release shared with CoinDesk.
The acquisition, which is still subject to completion, would allow Ripple to offer its full payments stack in Australia, covering onboarding, compliance, funding, foreign exchange, liquidity management, and payout through a single integration.
Australian customers currently using Ripple Payments include Hai Ha Money Transfer, Stables, Caleb & Brown, Flash Payments, and Independent Reserve.
“Australia is a key market for Ripple, and an AFSL strengthens our ability to scale Ripple Payments across the region,” said Fiona Murray, managing director for Asia Pacific, in a statement.
The regional numbers back up the push. Ripple said its APAC payments volume nearly doubled year-on-year in 2025, though it didn’t disclose specific figures.
That growth sits alongside the $100 billion in total processed volume the company reported last week when it announced managed custody, virtual account collections, and stablecoin settlement capabilities across 60 markets.
Ripple also said it is participating in Project Acacia, an initiative led by the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Digital Finance Cooperative Research Centre focused on digital asset infrastructure.
The licensing approach is notable. Rather than applying for an AFSL directly, Ripple is acquiring a company that already holds one. That’s a faster path to market but means the license is contingent on the deal closing, which hasn’t happened yet.
XRP was trading at $1.38, up 0.3% on the day and 1.7% on the week.
Bitcoin price is stabilizing near $70,000 as declining derivatives leverage and falling retail inflows hint at a possible base forming in the market.
Summary
- Bitcoin is trading near $70,000, close to the upper end of its weekly range.
- Retail inflows to Binance have dropped sharply while open interest across exchanges continues to trend lower, signaling reduced leverage.
- Technical indicators show BTC consolidating between $67K and $71K as volatility tightens ahead of a potential breakout.
At press time, Bitcoin (BTC) was trading at $70,718, up 4.2% over the past 24 hours. The asset is now near the top of its recent weekly range thanks to the move.
Following February’s volatility, Bitcoin has shown signs of consolidation over the last seven days, trading between $65,962 and $73,669. The cryptocurrency is still 46% below its October 2025 all-time high of $127,080 despite the recent upswing.
Alongside the price increase, market activity has increased. With a 49% rise and a 24-hour trading volume of $53.8 billion for BTC, traders appear to be returning to the market.
Derivatives data also shows rising activity. According to CoinGlass data, Bitcoin futures trading volume increased 13% to $76 billion, while open interest climbed 5.72% to $46 billion.
Despite the short-term increase, longer-term data show that leverage across exchanges has been trending lower.
Retail flows and leverage show cooling market conditions
A Mar. 10 report from CryptoQuant contributor Amr Taha points to a sharp decline in retail Bitcoin inflows to Binance over the past month.
The analysis tracks cumulative Bitcoin deposits to the exchange over 30 days, separating activity from smaller investors and large holders. According to the data, retail inflows to Binance dropped significantly between Feb. 6 and Mar. 10.
During that period, retail deposits fell from around $14.1 billion to roughly $6.3 billion, a drop of about $7.8 billion. The current level is the lowest recorded since mid-May 2024, suggesting smaller investors are sending fewer coins to exchanges.
Open interest across derivatives markets has also been declining. The report notes that several major exchanges have seen a reduction in futures positioning in recent weeks.
Bitcoin open interest on Binance was $3.45 billion on March 10, down from the $3.8 billion level noted on April 7, 2025. That earlier reading coincided with a period when Bitcoin formed a major market bottom.
According to Taha, widespread drops in open interest often signify a reduction in traders’ leverage. Once excessive speculation is removed from the market, periods of deleveraging can occasionally result in more stable price action.
Bitcoin price technical analysis
From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin is still recovering from the sharp decline seen in February. The price is still below the 20-day moving average, which is the midline of the Bollinger Bands. This level often acts as resistance when markets are trying to recover from a downtrend.
At the same time, the chart shows that Bitcoin is moving sideways between $67,000 and $71,000, indicating that the market may be establishing a base following the recent sell-off. Several recent candles have longer wicks and smaller bodies, which shows hesitancy among traders.
Volatility has also started to contract. Bollinger Bands are gradually narrowing, a pattern that comes before a more significant shift in either direction.
Momentum indicators show a slight improvement. The relative strength index is now hovering around 50, a neutral reading, having recovered from oversold levels near 20–30 during February’s decline.
$66,000 to $67,000 continues to be the crucial support range for Bitcoin in the near future. Holding this level could help maintain the current consolidation structure.
On the upside, $71,000 to $72,000 stands as the next resistance area. A break above that range could signal stronger recovery momentum, while rejection there may keep Bitcoin trading sideways in the near term.
Ripple has announced plans to secure an Australian financial services license by acquiring a local payments firm in the country.
Summary
- Ripple plans to obtain an Australian Financial Services License through the acquisition of BC Payments Australia.
- New regulations set to take effect by June 30, 2026, would require crypto companies operating in Australia to obtain a license.
Ripple said it will obtain the AFSL license through the acquisition of BC Payments Australia Pty Ltd, a payments company linked to the European Banking Circle Group. A deal is still underway and is expected to close on April 1 after the standard closing process is finalized.
“Australia is a key market for Ripple,” Ripple’s APAC Managing Director Fiona Murray said in an accompanying statement, adding that it will help Ripple Payments “manage the full lifecycle of a transaction, from onboarding and compliance through funding, FX, liquidity management, and final payout, while integrating both traditional banking rails and digital assets.”
Ripple’s decision to pursue the license comes as Australia’s financial regulator has unveiled updated regulations for the country’s crypto sector.
Starting June 30, 2026, crypto firms operating in Australia would be required to obtain an Australian Financial Services License before they are allowed to offer certain financial services to local customers.
Over the past years, Ripple has expanded its global regulatory footprint by focusing on securing licenses across key markets around the world.
In 2025 alone, Ripple managed to secure payment licenses in Singapore, the UAE, and the UK. The company was also granted conditional approval for a national trust banking charter by the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency alongside a handful of other firms.
Securing these regulatory approvals has helped Ripple strengthen its push for broader institutional adoption of the XRP (XRP) ecosystem and its flagship stablecoin RLUSD.
As previously reported by crypto.news, Ripple became one of the world’s top most valuable private companies, with its valuation reaching roughly $50 billion.
Bitcoin to $1 million? Bitwise CIO says it could happen under these conditions
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