Crypto World
How Expert Hyper Casual Game Developers Build Profitable Products
Hyper casual games look simple on the surface, but building profitable titles requires far more than a basic gameplay idea. A number of projects fail not because the concept is weak, but because the development process lacks structured testing, proper monetization planning, and scalability considerations.
Professional hyper casual game developers approach development differently. Instead of focusing only on building a playable game, they design systems that maximize retention, optimize monetization, and allow rapid iteration. This structured approach is what separates profitable titles from the thousands of hyper casual games that disappear shortly after launch.
Understanding the basics behind successful hyper casual games plays a pivotal role in helping how successful studios operate helps decision-makers evaluate whether their project is being built for long-term revenue or short-term experimentation.
Why Most Hyper Casual Games Fail Financially
Hyper casual games have one of the lowest barriers to entry in the gaming industry. Small teams can build simple prototypes quickly, which has led to a flood of titles entering the market. However, simplicity in gameplay does not mean simplicity in business success.
Most failed hyper casual projects share similar characteristics. They are often developed around a single idea without validation through testing cycles. Developers may launch a game assuming that downloads will automatically translate into revenue, but without retention and monetization optimization, even large user acquisition numbers fail to produce sustainable income.
Another common issue is the absence of structured monetization planning. Advertising is the primary revenue source for hyper casual games, yet poorly implemented ad placements can drive players away before revenue is generated. Balancing engagement with monetization requires careful data-driven tuning.
Infrastructure planning is also frequently underestimated. Games that unexpectedly gain traction may struggle with analytics integration, event tracking, or backend services required for optimization. Without proper tracking, developers cannot identify what drives retention or revenue.
These challenges explain why the majority of hyper casual games never recover their development investment. Profitability is rarely accidental; it is engineered through disciplined development practices.
What Professional Hyper Casual Game Developers Do Differently
Experienced hyper casual game developers follow structured workflows designed specifically for rapid validation and monetization optimization. Their goal is not simply to launch games, but to identify concepts that can scale profitably.
Professional teams start by analyzing market trends and player behavior before development begins. Instead of building fully featured games immediately, they create small prototypes designed to test core gameplay loops. These early prototypes help determine whether players respond positively to the concept before additional investment is made.
Professional developers typically focus on:
- Market-driven concept validation instead of idea-first development
- Rapid prototyping cycles to reduce investment risk
- Early analytics integration to measure retention and engagement
- Iterative gameplay tuning based on real user data
- Monetization planning before launch
Another key difference lies in data-driven decision-making. Professional studios integrate analytics systems early in the development process so that retention metrics, session length, and monetization behavior can be tracked from the first test release.
A professional hyper casual game development company approaches development as a cycle of testing and refinement rather than a single build-and-launch process. This methodology significantly increases the probability of building profitable titles.
The Real Hyper Casual Game Development Process
The hyper casual game development process is built around speed, validation, and continuous optimization rather than long development cycles. While hyper casual games appear simple, profitable titles are created through structured development stages designed to reduce risk and improve monetization potential.
Successful hyper casual game developers treat development as a sequence of validated steps rather than a single build-and-launch cycle.
Step 1 — Concept Discovery & Market Validation
The process begins with identifying game mechanics that have strong engagement potential. Instead of relying purely on creative ideas, experienced teams analyze market trends and player behavior to determine what types of mechanics are currently performing well. This stage typically includes:
- Studying successful hyper casual titles
- Identifying proven gameplay mechanics
- Evaluating market demand
- Defining the core gameplay loop
- Estimating monetization potential
The goal is to reduce uncertainty before development begins.
Step 2 — Rapid Prototype Development
Once a concept is validated, developers build a fast prototype that focuses entirely on the core interaction loop. At this stage, visual polish is secondary to testing gameplay engagement.
Prototype builds typically focus on:
- Core gameplay mechanics
- Basic player controls
- Essential game physics
- Initial difficulty balancing
- Minimal UI elements
This stage allows developers to test whether the gameplay idea is engaging before committing to full production.
Step 3 — Production & Gameplay Refinement
After prototype validation, the project moves into production. Developers refine gameplay mechanics while improving visual quality and usability. Production usually includes:
- Final UI/UX design
- Improved animations and feedback systems
- Difficulty progression tuning
- Level design and structure
- Performance optimization
- Analytics integration
During this stage, the game begins to resemble a launch-ready product while still allowing room for adjustments.
Step 4 — Testing & Soft Launch
Testing is one of the most important phases in the hyper casual game development process. Soft launches allow developers to measure how real players interact with the game. Teams typically monitor:
- Player retention rates
- Session length
- User progression patterns
- Ad engagement behavior
- Drop-off points
These metrics determine whether the game has the potential to scale profitably. Soft launch insights often lead to multiple iterations before global release.
Planning to Launch a Revenue-Generating Hyper Casual Game?
Step 5 — Launch & Post-Launch Optimization
Even after launch, development does not stop. Successful hyper casual games continue evolving based on player behavior and performance metrics. Post-launch optimization usually involves:
- Adjusting difficulty balance
- Improving retention mechanics
- Optimizing ad placements
- Adding new levels or variations
- Refining user experience
This stage transforms a functional game into a profitable product.
Process Insight
A structured development pipeline is what allows professional hyper casual game developers to launch multiple titles efficiently. Instead of investing heavily into a single idea, successful teams validate concepts early and refine them continuously. This disciplined process is one of the key reasons why experienced studios consistently produce profitable hyper casual games.
Core Mechanics That Drive Retention
Retention determines whether a hyper casual game can generate consistent revenue. Even small improvements in retention rates can dramatically increase lifetime value per user.
Successful hyper casual games rely on intuitive mechanics that players can understand immediately. Clear goals and instant feedback encourage players to continue interacting with the game. Smooth controls and responsive interactions prevent frustration during early sessions. Professional hyper casual game developers typically focus on optimizing:
- Immediate player understanding within the first few seconds
- Fast and responsive controls
- Short and repeatable gameplay sessions
- Clear progression milestones
- Reward-driven engagement loops
Progression systems play an important role in maintaining engagement. Unlockable content, level-based challenges, and performance milestones give players reasons to return. Even simple progression systems can significantly improve long-term engagement.
Visual feedback also contributes to retention. Animations, sound effects, and reward notifications reinforce player actions and create a sense of accomplishment. These small improvements collectively produce large gains in retention and monetization performance.
How Hyper Casual Games Actually Make Money
Understanding how hyper casual games make money is essential for evaluating project viability. Unlike many other game genres, hyper casual titles rely primarily on advertising revenue rather than direct purchases. Most successful hyper casual games generate income through a combination of:
- Rewarded video ads that players voluntarily watch for extra rewards
- Interstitial ads shown between gameplay sessions
- Banner ads that provide passive revenue streams
- Optional in-app purchases such as ad removal or cosmetic upgrades
Rewarded ads usually produce the highest engagement because players receive direct benefits. Interstitial ads generate consistent income when placed carefully between gameplay sessions. However, aggressive monetization can quickly reduce retention. Successful studios carefully balance engagement and monetization to maintain long-term revenue.
Monetization Optimization Techniques
Monetization optimization involves continuous adjustment based on player behavior. Developers analyze engagement patterns to determine when players are most receptive to advertisements or purchases.
A/B testing is commonly used to compare different ad placement strategies. By testing multiple configurations, developers identify which approaches generate the highest revenue without reducing retention.
Session-based monetization strategies also help maximize earnings. Players who remain engaged longer provide more opportunities for revenue generation. Developers, therefore, focus on increasing session duration through balanced difficulty progression.
Optimization continues after launch as new data becomes available. Successful hyper casual games often undergo multiple iterations of monetization tuning before reaching peak profitability.
Testing and Iteration Strategy
Hyper casual game development relies heavily on testing cycles. Soft launches provide valuable insights into player behavior and monetization potential before global release.
During testing phases, developers monitor key performance indicators such as retention rates, session frequency, and average revenue per user. These metrics help determine whether a game has the potential to scale.
Rapid iteration allows teams to implement improvements quickly. Adjustments to gameplay mechanics, visual design, and monetization systems can significantly improve performance over time.
Testing reduces the risk associated with launching new games and increases the likelihood of financial success.
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Scaling Winning Games
When a hyper casual game demonstrates strong performance metrics, scaling becomes the next priority. User acquisition campaigns increase player numbers, allowing developers to maximize revenue potential. Scaling typically involves:
- Expanding user acquisition campaigns
- Optimizing monetization performance
- Adding new levels and gameplay variations
- Improving analytics tracking
- Refining retention mechanics
Scaling requires stable infrastructure and reliable analytics systems. Developers must ensure that performance remains consistent as player numbers grow.
Successful titles often expand through additional content updates and feature enhancements. New levels and gameplay variations help maintain engagement among existing players. Scaling transforms validated prototypes into sustainable revenue-generating products.
Choosing the Right Hyper Casual Game Development Company
Selecting the right development partner plays a critical role in project success. Experienced hyper casual game developers bring structured workflows, analytics expertise, and monetization knowledge that reduce development risks.
Antier, as a reliable hyper casual game development company, demonstrates proven experience in building and launching multiple titles. Proven testing processes and optimization capabilities are strong indicators of Antier’s expertise.
The team combines technical development with a monetization strategy to provide greater long-term value. Development partners who understand both gameplay and business metrics are better positioned to deliver profitable outcomes.
Organizations planning to invest in hyper casual projects should prioritize partners who can support both development as well as optimization.
Final Thoughts
Hyper casual games may appear simple, but profitable titles are the result of disciplined development processes and continuous optimization. Professional hyper casual game developers focus on validation, retention, and monetization rather than simply launching games. This approach reduces risk and improves the probability of financial success.
For decision-makers considering hyper casual projects, understanding the development process and revenue model is essential. Projects built with structured workflows and experienced teams are far more likely to generate sustainable returns.
Frequently Asked Questions
01. What are the common reasons why hyper casual games fail financially?
Hyper casual games often fail due to a lack of structured testing, poor monetization planning, and inadequate scalability considerations. Many projects are developed around a single idea without validation, leading to low retention and revenue despite high download numbers.
02. How do professional hyper casual game developers approach game development?
Professional developers focus on creating systems that maximize player retention, optimize monetization, and allow for rapid iteration, rather than just building a playable game. This structured approach helps ensure long-term revenue generation.
03. Why is monetization planning important for hyper casual games?
Monetization planning is crucial because advertising is the primary revenue source for hyper casual games. Poorly implemented ad placements can drive players away, making it essential to balance engagement with effective monetization strategies to generate sustainable income.
Crypto tokens worth more than $572 million will enter the market over the next seven days. Notably, three major ecosystems, Hyperliquid (HYPE), Ethena (ENA), and RedStone (RED) will release new token supply into circulation in early March 2026.
The token unlocks will inject fresh liquidity into the market and can also trigger price swings and volatility. So, here is a breakdown of what to watch for in each project.
1. Hyperliquid (HYPE)
- Unlock Date: March 6
- Number of Tokens to be Unlocked: 9.92 million HYPE
- Released Supply: 405.41 million HYPE
- Total Supply: 1 billion HYPE
Hyperliquid is a leading decentralized perpetual futures exchange built on its own Layer-1 blockchain. It offers high-performance trading with low latency, on-chain order books, and sub-second transaction finality.
On March 6, the team will unlock 9.92 million HYPE worth $316.64 million. The tokens account for 2.72% of the released supply.
Hyperliquid will direct all unlocked altcoins to core contributors.
2. RedStone (RED)
- Unlock Date: March 6
- Number of Tokens to be Unlocked: 40.85 million RED
- Released Supply: 253.25 million RED
- Total Supply: 1 billion RED
RedStone is a modular blockchain oracle protocol that feeds trusted, real-time external data into smart contracts and decentralized finance (DeFi) applications across multiple blockchains.
The team will release 40.85 million tokens on March 6. The tokens are worth $6.04 million. Furthermore, they account for 16.13% of the released supply.
The team will split the unlocked supply four ways. Early backers will get 26.42 million tokens. Core contributors will receive 5.56 million RED.
In addition, the team will allocate 5.54 million altcoins to the ecosystem and data providers. Lastly, it will direct 3.33 million tokens towards protocol development.
3. Ethena (ENA)
- Unlock Date: March 2
- Number of Tokens to be Unlocked: 40.63 million ENA
- Released Supply: 7.62 billion ENA
- Total Supply: 15 billion ENA
Ethena is a synthetic dollar protocol built on Ethereum (ETH). The protocol’s flagship product is USDe, a synthetic dollar stablecoin. Furthermore, ENA is the protocol’s governance token.
The team will release 40.63 million ENA tokens on March 2 via its cliff vesting schedule. The tokens, worth $4.21 million, account for 0.53% of the released supply.
Ethena will award the entire unlocked supply to the Foundation. In addition to these three, Staika (STIK), Spectral (SPEC), and IOTA (IOTA) will also experience new supply entering the market in the first week of March.
The US Federal Reserve could ease its hawkish monetary policy to help finance the country’s conflict with Iran, which would boost crypto markets, says BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes.
Hayes said in a blog post on Monday that every US president since 1985 has launched military action in the Middle East, and each time, the Federal Reserve has responded by cutting rates and expanding the money supply to finance the conflict.
“The longer Trump engages in the extremely costly activity of Iranian nation-building, the higher the likelihood that the Fed lowers the price and increases the quantity of money to support Pax Americana’s latest bout of Middle Eastern adventurism,” he added.
Hayes said that the Gulf War in 1990, the global war on terrorism after the Sept. 11 attacks in 2001, and the so-called “surge” in Afghanistan in 2009 had all resulted in Fed rate cuts or monetary easing.
Over the weekend, Israel and the US initiated a series of airstrikes on Iran that killed the country’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, which President Donald Trump has pledged to continue.
Hayes advises a wait-and-see approach
“We do not know how long Trump will remain interested in spending billions, if not trillions, of dollars reshaping Iran’s politics to his liking, nor how much geopolitical and financial market pain he can politically tolerate before he cuts and runs,” said Hayes. “The prudent action is to wait and see.”
“The time to back up the truck and buy Bitcoin and high-quality shitcoins […] is immediately after the Fed cuts rates and or prints money to support the government’s goals in Iran,” he added.
Hayes has recently shared other theories on how the Fed may approach monetary policy, and in the past three months has said the Fed would start quantitative easing due to a new liquidity tool called Reserve Management Purchases, or to alleviate the Japanese bond crisis, or because artificial intelligence will take jobs, leading to a credit crisis.
Related: Bitcoin traders eye Iran reactions as oil sparks US 5% inflation forecast
Futures show only a marginal drop
After the Israel-US strikes on Iran, crypto social media saw a spike in mentions of “World War 3” over the weekend, according to Santiment.
However, the mentions remain much lower than in June 2025 when Israel launched strikes on Iran’s nuclear and military sites, which escalated into a 12-day conflict.
Macro newsletter The Kobeissi Letter said, “This is not a futures open that is anywhere near WW3,” a reference to US stock futures, which opened down marginally in early trading on Monday.
Oil prices have already erased nearly half of their opening gap higher, and the S&P 500 is down less than 1%, it added.
Magazine: Would Bitcoin really be at $200K if not for Jane Street? Trade Secrets
Analysts say that shifting US monetary policy could hinge on geopolitical developments in the Middle East, with crypto markets watching for signals from the Federal Reserve. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes argues in a Monday blog post that American presidents have repeatedly engaged in Middle East action, and the Fed has historically responded by cutting rates or expanding the money supply to finance those campaigns. He writes that the longer an administration pursues Iran-focused objectives, the greater the likelihood the Fed will “lower the price and increase the quantity of money” to support those efforts, a pattern he sees echoed in past conflicts. Hayes cites the Gulf War of 1990, the post-9/11 wars, and the 2009 Afghan surge as episodes where monetary easing followed military action. Over the weekend, Israel and the US conducted airstrikes on Iran that killed Ali Khamenei, a development President Donald Trump has pledged to continue.
Key takeaways
- The analytically argued link between wartime financing and Fed easing suggests policy pivots could accompany geopolitical shocks, with crypto markets potentially benefiting from increased liquidity.
- Historical precursors—Gulf War (1990), the post-9/11 era, and the 2009 Afghan surge—are cited as episodes where rate cuts or aggressive money printing supported wartime aims, according to Hayes.
- The weekend strikes on Iran introduced fresh geopolitical risk, intensifying scrutiny of how policy makers balance inflation, growth, and security concerns while markets price in potential easing.
- Crypto-market chatter around “World War III” spiked on social media after the latest flare-up, though observers noted that current dynamics are not comparable to peak speculative periods in 2025.
- Hayes has floated liquidity tools such as Reserve Management Purchases and other easing measures, signaling how policymakers might adapt if macro risks escalate, a thread that dovetails with ongoing debates about liquidity in crypto markets.
Tickers mentioned: $BTC
Price impact: Positive. The piece frames geopolitical risk and potential Fed easing as supportive for crypto markets, implying upside for BTC if policy shifts materialize.
Market context: The narrative sits at the intersection of macro policy, geopolitics, and crypto liquidity. As risk sentiment shifts with geopolitical headlines, traders monitor whether Fed actions—or lack thereof—will unlock liquidity channels that typically buoy risk assets including digital currencies.
Why it matters
The episode highlights how macro policy and geopolitical trajectories can influence the behavior of crypto markets. If the Federal Reserve were to pivot toward rate cuts or quantitative easing in response to ongoing conflict dynamics, liquidity could expand and risk appetite could rise, creating a more favorable environment for digital assets like Bitcoin. The discussion also underscores the fragility of markets that are sensitive to policy signals; investors may pivot quickly in anticipation of liquidity injections or policy tightening, reinforcing the need for disciplined risk management.
For market participants, the perspective from Hayes — that policy responses to geopolitical frictions can be both reflexive and pro-cyclical for crypto — adds a layer of nuance to how traders interpret price movements. It also draws attention to liquidity tools and central-bank balance-sheet dynamics as structural drivers that could shape the next phase of the crypto cycle. While none of this guarantees a specific price path, it emphasizes that policy and geopolitics remain key variables in the crypto trading playbook.
What to watch next
- Federal Reserve communications and any signals about rate cuts or new liquidity programs, including Reserve Management Purchases.
- Developments in the Iran-Israel conflict and leadership dynamics in the region, alongside any shifts in geopolitical risk assessments.
- Bitcoin price action in response to macro news and policy signals, with attention to test levels around major milestones.
- Regulatory and institutional flows that could affect BTC-related products and overall market liquidity.
Sources & verification
- BitMEX blog: Arthur Hayes on iOS warfare and monetary policy implications — https://www.bitmex.com/blog/ios-warfare
- Cointelegraph coverage: Israel-US airstrikes on Iran and the described leadership developments — https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-recovers-to-68k-following-reported-death-of-iranian-supreme-leader
- Kobeissi Letter remark on futures and WW3 framing — https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/2028251687572688942
- Santiment data on World War III mentions in crypto discourse — https://x.com/santimentfeed/status/2028285118553493784
- Jane Street discussion on Bitcoin price narratives — https://magazine.cointelegraph.com/bitcoin-price-manipulation-jane-street-bitcoiners-debate-cointelegraph/
Market reaction and key details
The central thread running through this discourse is the tension between geopolitics and macro policy and how that tension spills into crypto markets. Hayes’ framing rests on a historical pattern: wartime actions tend to be financed through monetary easing, which, in turn, broadens liquidity and tends to support assets that thrive on risk-taking. In the current moment, observers watch for any official signal from the Fed that policy might shift toward easing, a move that could catalyze a broader crypto rally if liquidity taps are opened.
Beyond the macro angle, the conversation threads in public commentary include market data points such as marginal moves in stock futures and shifts in energy prices, which can influence risk appetite across asset classes. As noted in related analyses, Bitcoin and other crypto narratives have at times mirrored shifts in traditional markets, but the relationship remains imperfect and highly context-dependent. The social-media chatter around WW3 underscores how fast sentiment can pivot on headlines, even if the underlying price action is more nuanced than headline narratives suggest.
Notably, the discourse extends to liquidity tools and policy mechanisms that could shape the trajectory of crypto markets. Hayes has previously floated ideas like Reserve Management Purchases as a potential tool to soothe markets, and he has linked these constructs to broader money-printing dynamics that could accelerate crypto adoption during periods of policy stress. In parallel, market observers have debated whether large participants and market makers have the capacity to influence price through strategic liquidity provisioning, a theme that has featured in discussions around Jane Street and other firms in analyses like the one titled “Would Bitcoin really be at $200K if not for Jane Street? Trade Secrets.”
As with any geopolitical and macro narrative, investors should command a cautious, context-aware approach. The next few weeks could deliver clarity on the Fed’s stance, the evolution of the conflict in the Middle East, and the way crypto markets weigh fresh liquidity signals against ongoing macro uncertainties. While Hayes’ framework provides a lens to interpret potential policy responses, it is one of many factors driving price discovery in Bitcoin and other digital assets.
The U.S.-listed spot bitcoin and ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have seen record outflows over the past four months, confirming that a full-blown crypto market is underway.
Investors have pulled $6.39 billion from bitcoin ETFs over four straight months of outflows, the longest monthly losing streak since the funds launched in January 2024, according to data source SoSoValue data.
Ether ETFs have also fallen out of favor, bleeding $2.76 billion over the past 4 months.
These huge outflows indicate that institutional appetite for digital assets has collapsed, which explains the price losses in the two tokens. Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency by market value, peaked at over $126,000 in early October and has since almost halved to $67,000. Ether has had a much steeper fall, down over 60% from highs above $4,950 in August last year.
Alternative investment vehicles such as spot ETFs emerged as the clearest and most observable source of sustained institutional activity after their debut in early 2024. Investors poured billions in 2024 and in months following pro-crypto Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. elections, greasing the bull run in both tokens at the time.
The demand, however, evaporated after the early October crash, which was supposedly led by pricing inefficiencies on offshore exchange Binance. Recent days have seen sporadic inflows, but analysts say a sustained trend is needed for any meaningful market bounce.
Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy, raised its STRC preferred stock dividend by 25 basis points for March 2026, as Bitcoin (BTC) drawdown continues to push MSTR shares down.
Strategy is the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin (BTC). The STRC dividend rate is set monthly to keep shares trading near their $100 par value, limiting price volatility.
Why it matters:
- Bitcoin’s drawdown has impacted both MicroStrategy’s Class A shares, MSTR, and its balance sheet.
- MSTR has declined 14.77% year-to-date (YTD) amid BTC’s drawdown. The largest cryptocurrency itself has dropped nearly 24% in the same time frame.
- STRC’s stability near $100 par contrasts with MSTR’s volatility.
The details:
- Executive Chairman Michael Saylor announced the 11.50% STRC dividend rate on X (formerly Twitter), up from 11.25% in February.
- The March increase marks the seventh STRC dividend hike since the shares began trading in July 2025.
- Strategy prices STRC dividends monthly to anchor shares near $100 par value.
- CEO Phong Le stated in February that the company plans to shift toward preferred share issuance over common stock for BTC purchases.
The big picture:
- Strategy holds the largest corporate BTC reserve globally and continues to purchase BTC despite $6.6 billion in paper losses.
- The pivot to preferred shares offers a lower-volatility capital raise vehicle compared to MSTR equity dilution.
- BTC’s current drawdown tests whether the Strategy’s accumulation model holds under prolonged price pressure.
A brief Sunday rally didn’t survive contact with Monday.
Bitcoin slid to $66,702 in early Monday trading, down 1.1% over the past 24 hours, as traditional markets reopened and began pricing the U.S.-Iran conflict that crypto had been trading in isolation since Saturday.
Sunday’s bounce to $68,000 on the Khamenei confirmation has now been mostly unwound, with the market settling back into the mid-$66,000 range that preceded the strikes.
The broader crypto picture was mixed. Ether fell 2.5% to $1,967, solana dropped 4.1% to $84, and XRP lost 3.6% to $1.36. The weekly numbers paint the real damage, with solana down 8.1% over seven days to lead losses among majors.
Traditional markets told the story crypto was anticipating. Brent crude surged as much as 13% at the open before settling around $77.50, still up 6.4%, the biggest jump since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil flows, is effectively closed, per Bloomberg. Asian equities dropped 1.4% and U.S. equity futures fell 0.7%. Gold climbed to $5,350 an ounce.
The oil move is what matters most for crypto’s near-term direction. Higher energy prices feed directly into inflation expectations, which push back the timeline for Fed rate cuts, which tighten the liquidity conditions that drive risk asset prices.
But the situation remains fluid. Conflicting reports emerged Monday about whether Iran is seeking to resume nuclear talks with the U.S. The Wall Street Journal reported a fresh push to negotiate, while Iran’s national security chief Ali Larijani said the country won’t negotiate.
Earlier Sunday, Trump said the bombing campaign will continue until objectives are achieved, though The Atlantic reported he agreed to talk with Iran’s new leadership.
Meanwhile, some crypto traders say further downside risks for the market could be limited.
“Given that Iran has been isolated from global financial markets for quite some time, we believe that downside risk is limited,” said Jeff Mei, chief operating officer at BTSE.
“Some have been concerned about oil prices and their potential impact on inflation, but the world has been weaned off Iranian oil and increased supply from OPEC and the U.S. should be enough to stabilize prices.”
Whether that proves right depends on whether the Strait of Hormuz reopens and how long Trump’s “objectives” take to achieve. Until both of those questions have answers, crypto trades as a risk asset in a world that just got riskier.
The monthly losses from crypto hacks and scams in February hit the lowest level since March 2025, with $26.5 million stolen last month, says blockchain security company PeckShield.
Out of 15 instances in February, only two accounted for most of the month’s losses, with the largest being the $10 million theft from YieldBlox’s DAO-managed lending pool via a price manipulation attack on Feb. 21, PeckShield reported in an X post on Sunday.
The second-largest exploit targeted the decentralized identity protocol IoTeX, which lost about $8.9 million to a private key exploit on Feb. 21. Overall, February’s total represents a 69.2% month-on-month decrease from January, which recorded just over $86 million in losses.
A PeckShield spokesperson told Cointelegraph that “mega-hacks,” such as the $1.5 billion Bybit hack in February 2025, didn’t inflate last month’s statistics, and market volatility led to a significant cooling period in exploit activity.
“A sharp market correction in early February, with Bitcoin dipping below $70,000, shifted the industry’s focus toward institutional deleveraging and math-based sell-offs. During such high-volatility periods, the tactical focus often moves away from protocol exploits toward navigating market liquidity,” the spokesperson added.
Security improvements could be a factor
Kronos Research analyst Dominick John told Cointelegraph that the decline could also reflect tighter risk controls, stronger counterparty standards and improved real-time monitoring across major venues.
“Capital is becoming more selective, rewarding protocols with mature security frameworks. Sustained downside will depend on whether security standards keep pace with innovation,” he said.
John said losses could continue to decline through the year as audits, monitoring, and institutional risk frameworks mature.
Artificial intelligence might also accelerate the shift, powering automated code reviews, anomaly detection, and pre-deployment attack simulations to catch vulnerabilities earlier in the lifecycle,’ he added.
“Crypto security is leveling up. Protocols are doubling down on audits, formal verification, and real-time monitoring, while institutions are raising the bar on what they’ll fund,” John said.
“AI-driven checks and automated vulnerability scans are catching issues earlier, though the fast-moving ecosystem keeps the game high-stakes.”
Phishing remains a persistent problem
Losses from phishing have declined, with attacks tied to wallet drainers dropping sharply in 2025, from $494 million to $83.85 million.
The PeckShield spokesperson said that the attacks, where a scammer poses as a trusted person or organization to steal sensitive information, remain a lingering issue.
Related: Traveling? ‘Evil Twin’ WiFi networks can steal crypto passwords
“Phishing remains the most persistent threat. Instead of trying to hack the contract, bad actors are increasingly focused on hacking the human,” they added.
“It is critical for both institutions and whales to adopt multi-sig cold storage solutions and strictly guard their wallets and private keys.”
Magazine: Would Bitcoin really be at $200K if not for Jane Street? Trade Secrets
A public fight is unfolding at Empery Digital (EMPD), a bitcoin treasury company holding 3,723 BTC whose shares have slumped 45% in the past 12 months.
While it’s a small holding compared to firms like Michael Saylor’s Strategy, the boardroom drama with an activist investor brought this company into the spotlight.
In a Feb. 4 letter, investor Tice P. Brown, founder and managing partner of the Woodmont Partners family office, said he owns 9.8% of the firm, accused management of reckless behavior and poor governance, allowing employees to “day-trade tens, or hundreds of millions of dollars of bitcoin derivatives.” He called for the resignation of co-CEO Ryan Lane and the rest of the board, and demanded the sale of all its bitcoin, returning the cash to shareholders.
Empery’s management rejected Brown’s claims and offered a different account of recent events. The dispute now spans buyout talks, office meetings and the use of bitcoin derivatives at the company.
“Management attempted to reach an agreement with Mr. Brown as it believed such an agreement would be in the best interests of the Company and all its shareholders,” the company said in a post on its website. “It is disappointing Mr. Brown ended these conversations and issued his letter to advance his self-serving campaign.”
At the core is a simple question: Should Empery, which has a market capitalization of $140 million, keep building around its bitcoin holdings or sell them and wind down, especially when the bitcoin price has cratered from its all-time high and most treasury companies are hurting?
Options trading
Brown, who started building his stake in December and is now the third-largest shareholder, according to WallStreetZen data and SEC filings, argues for the latter.
Brown, who declined to comment for this story, said in his letter that liquidating all the bitcoin would close the gap between the company’s share price of around $3.96 and its net asset value of $4.72.
Empery, however, says that selling all bitcoin would destroy long-term potential and undermine its strategy.
That strategy involves using its holdings to support an options trading plan that involves selling out-of-the-money calls and puts, along with spreads, to collect premiums. It’s an approach employed by some other bitcoin treasury firms, including Metaplanet, the fourth-largest corporate holder of bitcoin, to generate income against their bitcoin holdings.
In plain terms, that means the company earns fees from other market participants who want exposure to bitcoin price moves. If bitcoin stays within certain price ranges, Empery keeps the premium. If it moves sharply, the company faces limits defined by the contracts.
It’s personal
The disagreement also turned personal.
Brown, a graduate of Harvard College and Harvard Law School, noted in recent filings that he has made “a few hundred million dollars of public and private investments” since 2014 through his family office and previously served as chairman of PharmChem, which was acquired last year at a premium to their open market price.
He described a January meeting at Empery’s Rockefeller Center office, where he said Lane had him removed by security. Empery says the meeting ended after Brown insisted the company liquidate immediately and refused to leave unless security escorted him out.
In a Feb. 23 letter, Brown says the company offered to buy his shares at a premium in exchange for a standstill agreement.
The company, in its post, says it did not initiate an offer to buy Brown’s shares. Instead, it claims Brown’s prime broker approached the firm to explore a potential deal. Empery confirmed discussions took place, but said the talks broke down over price.
A person familiar with the talks told CoinDesk Brown sought $7.50 per share, valuing the company at roughly $270 million vs its current market cap of $136 million.
A bid for the board
The proxy fight escalated further on Feb. 26 when Brown filed a formal notice nominating himself for election to Empery’s board of directors. In the filing, Brown disclosed his stake had grown to 10.3%, representing over 3.3 million shares.
He criticized the company’s “poison pill” and further referenced “management’s efforts to impose standstill agreements,” arguing they serve only to entrench incumbents rather than allow stockholders to effect change.
Touting his background as a Harvard Law graduate and former chairman of PharmChem, Brown stated that if elected, he would work to remove impediments to shareholder oversight and dramatically increase the capital returned to investors.
“The Company’s continued retention of bitcoin holds no ongoing business purpose, as dozens of cheaper ways to achieve bitcoin exposure exist,” Brown wrote in the filing.
Bitcoin treasury in limbo
CoinGecko data shows the company’s bitcoin was purchased at an average price of $122,283 each, costing a total of $455 million. The current value stands at $235.5 million, meaning a sale would result in a realized loss of nearly $220 million.
Still, the company signaled some flexibility. In its latest statement, Empery said it may use existing cash or reduce its bitcoin holdings to fund share repurchases or repay borrowings, something that other treasury companies have done. It stopped short of endorsing a full sale.
It also said recent buybacks had narrowed the gap between its share price and net asset value by roughly 40% in less than a month.
For now, neither side appears ready to back down. The dispute could shape not only Empery’s future, but also may foreshadow what awaits other smaller public companies with large bitcoin treasuries in a volatile market.
Crypto World
HYPE jumps 5% as token burn offsets $316 Million unlock, JUP gains weekly on supply freeze
Hyperliquid’s HYPE token outperformed bitcoin and the broader market as traders flocked to the decentralized exchange over the weekend, placing bullish bets on TradFi-linked futures amid escalating Middle East tensions.
HYPE has climbed more up to 5% in the past 24 hours, as exploding platform activity led to higher token burn rate, countering fears of an impending $316 million token unlock. Bitcoin, meanwhile, dropped 0.7% to $66,700. The CoinDesk 20 Index, a broader market gauge, has declined by 1.7% to 1,937 points.
Hyperliquid’s fee mechanism channels a portion of trading fees directly into HYPE buy-backs and burns. So spikes in activity, like the weekend rush into oil futures, lead to increased fee revenue and slash circulating supply of the token.
The protocol has earned $2.8 million in fees over the past 24 hours and over $13 million in one week, according to data source Defillama. It has burned $9.22 million worth of tokens over the past seven days, a 20.4% increase from the prior period.
This has shifted attention away from the token unlock – roughly 9.92 million HYPE, equal to about 2.7% of released supply, is scheduled to unlock this week. With historical unlocks often resulting in smaller-than-projected releases, according to data tracked by Tokenomist, traders appear to be betting that net circulating supply will not expand meaningfully.
Jupiter’s JUP token – up 13% in the last week and largely steady over 24 hours – has drawn similar attention after holders in a late-February governance vote approved eliminating net-new emissions for 2026, shelving planned token distributions and preventing any additional JUP from entering circulation this year, reinforcing the same supply-discipline narrative now driving selective altcoin strength.
Solana-based nonfungible token (NFT) marketplace Magic Eden is winding down its support for Bitcoin and Ethereum as it plans to double down on its upcoming online casino and sportsbook, Dicey.
Magic Eden CEO and co-founder Jack Lu said in an X post on Friday that it is winding down support for its Ethereum Virtual Machine and Bitcoin-based Runes and Ordinals marketplaces on March 9, followed by its Bitcoin API on March 27, and its crypto wallet on April 1.
He added that the platform will end its NFT buyback program and would be “doubling down” on Dicey, with Lu saying there is a “massive opportunity” in iGaming, or online gambling.
“It is clear we’re entering a new era where finance and entertainment merge,” Lu said, adding he was “incredibly bullish” on Dicey’s two-month-old closed beta, which has seen 200 users wager over $15 million.
Dicey offers an on-chain casino and plans to launch a sportsbook in a similar fashion to blockchain gambling sites such as Stake.
Magic Eden cutting NFTs to streamline toward gambling
The changes see Magic Eden, once one of the most popular NFT marketplaces, significantly scale back its focus on NFTs.
Lu said the platform will “exclusively” focus on NFT packs, which bundle random NFTs from various collections, similar to physical trading card packs.
Related: Logan Paul sells Pokémon card for $16.5M, years after fractional NFT row
Lu said the shift was ultimately down to most of the platform’s products not contributing significantly to revenues.
“80% of our cost are tied to products generating only 20% of our revenue. By winding down these products, we’re refocusing on our Solana roots [and] retaining our most profitable products, betting on deep on crypto entertainment, and positioning our products for long term growth.”
The NFT market has been impacted significantly amid a broader crypto market downturn over the past few months, with big names such as Nifty Gateway announcing in January that it was shutting down.
In early February, the total NFT marketplace had retraced to levels not seen since before the market boomed in 2021, falling below a $1.5 billion market cap.
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