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How the 2026 U.S. Midterm Elections Could Reshape Crypto Markets

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Nexo Partners with Bakkt for US Crypto Exchange and Yield Programs

TLDR:

  • Prediction markets show a 60% Republican Senate and 83% Democratic House probability in 2026 elections.
  • The GENIUS Act, enacted in 2025, awaits full implementation within 12 to 24 months after the midterms.
  • ERC20 stablecoin supply surpassed $150 billion in 2024, approaching highs last seen during the 2021 cycle.
  •  A divided Congress points to gradual regulatory clarity, favoring steady capital inflows over sudden market shifts.

 

The 2026 U.S. midterm elections are drawing close attention from crypto markets worldwide. At the center of that attention is the GENIUS Act, a landmark stablecoin law enacted in 2025.

Prediction markets currently show a 60% probability of Republican Senate control and an 83% probability of Democratic House control.

That split points to a divided Congress as the most likely outcome. For crypto markets, this political structure could determine how quickly regulatory clarity translates into capital movement.

Why the Midterm Election Outcome Matters for Stablecoin Regulation

The 2026 midterms carry direct consequences for how the GENIUS Act moves toward full implementation. Enacted in 2025, the law established the first federal framework governing stablecoins in the United States.

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Full implementation is expected to arrive within 12 to 24 months following the November 2026 elections. The political composition of Congress after that vote will influence how smoothly that process unfolds.

A divided Congress, the current base case, reduces the probability of sudden or sweeping regulatory reversals. Instead, markets can expect incremental policy progress as implementation details surface over time.

This gradual approach allows institutions and traders to adjust their positioning steadily. It also lowers the risk of abrupt disruption to existing market structures built around stablecoin liquidity.

“Regulation does not follow price—it reshapes the conditions under which price forms.” — XWIN Research Japan

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Broader legislative efforts, such as the CLARITY Act, face a harder path under split congressional control. Without a unified legislative majority, comprehensive digital asset market reform may move slowly.

Crypto participants should therefore expect a multi-year regulatory window rather than a single decisive moment. Each phase of implementation will carry its own market repricing effect.

The midterms will not produce an overnight transformation in crypto markets. However, they will set the regulatory tempo for the following two years.

That tempo matters enormously for institutional capital planning cycles. A stable, predictable regulatory environment consistently attracts longer-term capital commitments into digital asset markets.

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Stablecoin Supply Data Points to a Liquidity Cycle Already in Motion

On-chain data from CryptoQuant shows that the ERC20-based stablecoin supply has exceeded $150 billion as of 2024. That level approaches the historical highs last recorded during the 2021 market cycle.

Stablecoin supply functions as the most direct available measure of crypto market liquidity. When supply expands at this scale, it signals that capital is being staged ahead of broader risk allocation.

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📊 CryptoQuant data confirms total ERC20 stablecoin supply surpassed $150 billion in 2024, nearing all-time highs.

Historical market patterns show that stablecoin supply growth has consistently preceded major bull cycles. The current supply level suggests that liquidity is already structurally present across the market.

This condition holds even as short-term volatility continues to affect crypto asset prices. Markets have historically used such periods of elevated liquidity to absorb risk before moving higher.

The combination of the GENIUS Act’s regulatory timeline and current supply data creates a specific market setup. Liquidity appears to be accumulating well ahead of the formal regulatory catalyst the midterms may deliver.

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If divided government produces gradual clarity as expected, markets could reprice steadily throughout the implementation window.

That measured repricing environment tends to support sustained capital inflows rather than short-lived speculative spikes.

Ultimately, the 2026 midterms may not reshape crypto markets through legislation alone. Their larger role may be confirming the regulatory environment under which the next liquidity cycle accelerates.

The stablecoin supply structure already suggests that a foundation is forming. The election outcome will determine how quickly that foundation translates into the next market phase.

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Crypto World

Bitcoin ETFs to surpass gold ETFs in size

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Crypto Breaking News

Bitcoin spot ETFs may soon surpass gold ETFs in assets under management, fracturing the long-standing narrative that “digital gold” is a perfect stand-in for investors seeking a safe haven. Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart shared the view in an interview linked to the Coin Stories podcast, arguing that Bitcoin’s multiple use cases — from store of value to growth asset and liquidity driver — create a broader appeal than gold, which the market typically frames in a single light.

“There are just more use cases of why somebody would put a Bitcoin ETF in a portfolio,” Seyffart said on the podcast. He emphasized Bitcoin’s roles as a store of value, a portfolio diversifier, a form of digital capital, and even a growth-risk asset, suggesting that the crypto may attract a wider spectrum of investors than gold over time. While gold has historically served as a hedge against monetary debasement, Bitcoin’s evolving narrative as both a digital asset and a potential macro hedge underpins the case for larger ETF demand in the years ahead.

Key takeaways

  • Bitcoin ETFs could grow to exceed gold ETFs in total assets under management as demand broadens beyond the traditional “digital gold” story, according to James Seyffart, a Bloomberg ETF analyst.
  • March ETF flows show divergent momentum: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted about $1.32 billion in net inflows, while U.S. gold ETFs recorded net outflows of roughly $2.92 billion.
  • A single-day move underscored fragility in precious metals: GLD, the flagship gold ETF, posted a $3 billion withdrawal on March 4, the largest daily outflow in more than two years.
  • Longer-run macro signals remain mixed, with data suggesting a rotation dynamic between gold and Bitcoin rather than a single clear trend; Fidelity highlighted a historical pattern of leadership rotating between the two assets.

Flow dynamics in March: what they reveal about narrative shifts

The contrast in March ETF flows underscores shifting investor appetites for duration, liquidity, and narrative potential. Gold ETFs in the United States posted net outflows totaling about $2.92 billion in March, signaling renewed challenges for the traditional safe-haven metal in a period of evolving macro cues. In the same month, US spot Bitcoin ETFs drew approximately $1.32 billion in net inflows, illustrating a growing appetite for crypto exposure in diversified portfolios.

The divergence sits against a broader context in which Bitcoin and gold have moved more cohesively in recent weeks despite the divergent flows. The data points to a market that is re-evaluating the roles of these two hedges and growth assets in a landscape of persistent inflation concerns, evolving monetary policy expectations, and expanding acceptance of crypto-based investment products.

Gold’s pullback and retail versus institutional dynamics

Several pressures shaped gold’s March performance. The largest daily outflow in over two years hit GLD on March 4, reflecting sell-side and perhaps macro rotation pressures that have periodically punctured the gold regime. Meanwhile, more broad-based BIS data — cited by Cointelegraph — show retail gold purchases tripling over the past six months, while Wall Street selling has accelerated over the last four months. The juxtaposition implies a nuanced narrative: retail demand remains resilient even as institutional appetite shifts toward crypto exposure and related investment vehicles.

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These dynamics sit alongside anecdotal expectations that a growing cadre of investors view Bitcoin as a “growth risk asset,” complementary to its role as a hedge-friendly reserve. The evolving taxonomy — Bitcoin as a stores of value, digital currency with intrinsic scarcity, and liquidity-rich growth asset — contributes to a broader array of reasons to own a Bitcoin ETF beyond simply “digital gold.”

Price action and broader market context

As of publication, Bitcoin traded around $66,918, down about 8% over the prior 30 days, according to CoinMarketCap data. Gold hovered near $4,676 per ounce, down about 8.25% over the same period, per GoldPrice metrics. The near-term move preserves the sense that both assets have faced headwinds in a mixed macro backdrop, yet the flow data suggests that investor interest in Bitcoin ETFs remains persistent and possibly expanding even as gold faces episodic outflows.

The longer-term rotation story received some color from Fidelity Digital Assets analyst Chris Kuiper. In December 2025, Kuiper noted that historically gold and Bitcoin have rotated leadership, with gold performing strongly at times and Bitcoin catching up in others. That framework remains relevant as market participants weigh regulatory clarity, ETF availability, and the evolving ecosystem around Bitcoin-based investment products.

Implications for investors and markets

The potential overtaking of gold ETFs by Bitcoin ETFs in AUM would mark a notable shift in how investors allocate capital in search of diversification, liquidity, and growth exposure. If Bitcoin ETFs continue to capture inflows beyond the “digital gold” narrative, the market could see a broader base of participants embracing crypto exposure through regulated vehicles. This would not only change the composition of ETF portfolios but could also influence liquidity, product development, and the pace at which financial institutions bring more crypto-enabled offerings to retail and high-net-worth investors alike.

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From a portfolio-management perspective, the idea of Bitcoin acting as hot sauce in a diversified mix is persuasive for those seeking a growth-oriented, liquidity-rich sleeve within a broader asset allocation. Yet the data also underscores the need for caution and continued monitoring of regulatory developments, product approvals, and market structure changes that shape the appeal and risk profile of spot BTC ETFs.

In practical terms, readers should watch ETF inflow trends in the coming quarters, the rate of new product approvals, and the evolving evidence on how Bitcoin-based funds perform relative to gold during different macro regimes. The March data points demonstrate that the narrative around Bitcoin ETFs is gaining traction in investor discourse, even as gold maintains its own complex set of drivers and vulnerabilities.

Beyond price moves, the debate now centers on whether Bitcoin ETFs can sustain and broaden their appeal to a broader investor universe — from traditional equity and bond strategists to macro hedge funds and retail savers seeking diversified exposure. If inflows continue and more products arrive, the BTC ETF story may transition from a niche crypto offering to a core component of diversified portfolios.

What matters next is the trajectory of ETF approvals and listings, clear and consistent data on inflows across different regimes, and how macro factors like inflation momentum and monetary policy directions shape the risk-reward calculus for these funds. Investors should stay attentive to monthly flow prints, regulatory signals, and the evolving narrative around Bitcoin’s role in modern asset allocation.

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As the market awaits further clarity, the ongoing dialogue around Bitcoin’s ETF potential points to a future where crypto exposure becomes an increasingly standard instrument within traditional investment frameworks. The next few quarters will be telling, as inflows, product breadth, and price action converge to reveal whether Bitcoin ETFs can definitively eclipse gold ETFs in practical assets under management.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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Bitcoin ETFs Will Be Bigger Than Gold ETFs, Says ETF Analyst

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Bitcoin ETFs Will Be Bigger Than Gold ETFs, Says ETF Analyst

Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) could surpass gold ETFs in total assets under management (AUM) as investor demand expands beyond the traditional “digital gold” narrative, according to ETF analyst James Seyffart.

“There are just more use cases of why somebody would put a Bitcoin ETF in a portfolio,” Seyffart said on the Coin Stories podcast published to YouTube on Friday. He pointed to Bitcoin’s (BTC) role as digital gold, a store of value, a portfolio diversifier, and a form of digital capital and property, adding that the market also views Bitcoin as a “growth risk asset.”

Seyffart explained that Bitcoin has “all these different ways” of being viewed, while gold only has “one of those things.”

“Our view is that Bitcoin ETFs will be larger than gold ETFs,” he added.

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Bitcoin ETFs are a “hot sauce” in the portfolio

“There are so many people that could use it. They could be viewing it to put in their portfolio because they want to bet on like a growth and liquidity trade,” he said. “It can be hot sauce in a portfolio in that way,” he added.

Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart spoke to Natalie Brunell on the Coin Stories podcast. Source: Coin Stories

Bitcoin is often compared to gold due to its limited supply and perceived role as a hedge against monetary debasement. 

US-based gold ETFs recorded net outflows of $2.92 billion in March, while US spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $1.32 billion in net inflows over the same period.

Gold and BTC have declined over the past 30 days

The largest US gold-backed ETF, GLD, recorded a $3 billion outflow on Mar. 4, the largest daily withdrawal in more than two years.

On Mar. 19, Cointelegraph cited data from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) showing retail gold purchases have tripled over the last six months, while Wall Street selling has accelerated over the past four months.

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Related: Bitcoin ‘done’ with 85% crashes, says Cathie Wood amid new $34K target

Despite the divergence in ETF flows, both assets have moved broadly in tandem in recent weeks.

Bitcoin is trading at $66,918 at the time of publication, down 8.07% over the past 30 days, according to CoinMarketCap. Meanwhile, gold is trading at $4,676, down 8.25% over the past 30 days, according to GoldPrice data.

In December 2025, Fidelity Digital Assets analyst Chris Kuiper said that, “historically, gold and Bitcoin have taken turns outperforming. With gold shining in 2025, it would not be surprising if Bitcoin takes the lead next.”

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