Key Takeaways

• UBS elevated its year-end S&P 500 projection to 7,900 from 7,500, driven by robust earnings momentum and AI sector expansion
• The investment bank increased its 2026 earnings per share forecast for the S&P 500 to $335, reflecting 20% anticipated growth
• Roughly half of the earnings revision stems from semiconductor advances and memory chip price improvements
• ASML Holding received UBS’s designation as the premier stock selection in today’s elevated market conditions
• Potential disruption at the Strait of Hormuz represents the primary short-term threat to continued market gains

UBS delivered an optimistic assessment of both the US equity market and a critical chip equipment manufacturer this week, highlighting accelerating earnings trajectories and expanding AI infrastructure investment as primary catalysts.

The financial institution elevated its S&P 500 year-end valuation target to 7,900 from its previous 7,500 benchmark. Additionally, UBS established a June 2027 objective of 8,200. The firm’s 2026 earnings per share projection for the index climbed to $335 from $310, indicating a 20% expansion.

Approximately half of this earnings enhancement originated from the semiconductor sector, with memory chip pricing dynamics playing a significant role. Energy company profitability contributed roughly another quarter to the overall increase. UBS also adjusted its 2027 earnings forecast upward to $375, suggesting 12% year-over-year advancement.

The bank attributed much of this recalibration to heightened data center capital expenditure anticipated for 2026. UBS maintained its constructive stance on American equities, affirming that bullish market dynamics persist.

The Case for ASML According to UBS

Among semiconductor companies, UBS highlighted ASML Holding as the most compelling investment opportunity available today. The Netherlands-based manufacturer produces sophisticated lithography equipment essential for fabricating next-generation chips and maintains a dominant market position in this specialized technology.

ASML Holding N.V., ASML

ASML’s client roster encompasses leading chip manufacturers such as TSMC, Samsung, and Intel. The company’s equipment also plays a vital role for memory chip fabricators. ASML occupies a central position in AI chip production, as companies like Nvidia rely heavily on its machinery.

UBS increased its valuation target for ASML to €1,900 while maintaining a Buy recommendation. The firm’s analysts outlined three fundamental reasons supporting this position: manufacturing capacity currently exceeds demand levels, the company continues expanding market share in memory lithography, and the high NA technology narrative retains significant upside potential.

Revenue Projections and Manufacturing Capacity

UBS now projects ASML’s EUV revenue stream will expand 37% year-over-year during 2027, a substantial increase from its previous 26% estimate. Looking toward 2028, the bank anticipates 10% growth versus an earlier projection of -1%.

For the foundry and logic segment, representing 62% of ASML’s product revenue, UBS forecasts 34% expansion in 2027 and 18% in 2028. Both figures substantially exceed previous modeling.

The analysts observed that ASML has disclosed capacity exceeding 80 EUV units for 2027, though UBS’s independent analysis indicates the actual ceiling may surpass 100 units.

UBS also emphasized High NA technology as a sustained growth catalyst. The firm calculates this technology can deliver cost reductions of 20–40% for critical manufacturing layers, alongside throughput improvements exceeding 100% relative to most competing approaches.

Risk Factors Identified by UBS

Notwithstanding the favorable outlook, UBS identified potential Strait of Hormuz disruption as the most significant immediate concern. The firm suggested that restored energy transit through this corridor likely represents a prerequisite for the rally’s continuation.

Elevating long-term borrowing costs or renewed Federal Reserve rate increases were mentioned as supplementary concerns, though UBS clarified these scenarios fall outside its baseline expectations.

Key Highlights

• CEG shares climbed 10.1% following a strong first-quarter 2026 earnings report
• First-quarter revenue reached $11.12 billion with net income totaling $1.59 billion
• Shares jumped 7.4% on May 20 after PJM Interconnection announced plans to accelerate a reliability auction
• The company activated the 460 MW Pin Oak Creek Energy Center and brought a 105 MW solar facility online
• Constellation wrapped up a $2.36 billion share repurchase program that began in 2023

CEG shares experienced a powerful rally this week. The energy giant delivered first-quarter 2026 results that exceeded Wall Street forecasts, activated new generation facilities, and benefited from positive developments in regional power markets — all converging in a short timeframe.

Constellation Energy Corporation, CEG

During the first quarter of 2026, Constellation posted revenue of $11.12 billion alongside net income of $1.59 billion. Both figures surpassed analyst estimates and triggered a wave of buying interest.

On May 20, the stock surged 7.4% following an announcement from PJM Interconnection regarding an accelerated timeline for a reliability auction. PJM operates the electrical grid serving much of the eastern United States, and this decision was widely interpreted as favorable for power generators like Constellation that serve high-demand customers including data centers.

NRG Energy and Vistra experienced similar gains on the same trading day — rising 7% and 6.6% respectively — indicating that the PJM announcement created momentum across the entire power generation sector.

Fresh Generation Assets Enter Service

During the quarter, Constellation activated the Pin Oak Creek Energy Center, a 460 MW natural gas facility. This plant enhances the company’s ability to provide dispatchable power on demand, complementing its existing portfolio of nuclear, wind, solar, and hydroelectric resources.

Additionally, the company commissioned the Pastoria Solar Project, which delivers 105 MW of clean energy capacity. This expansion comes as enterprise customers increasingly seek carbon-free electricity sources for their operations.

The U.S. Department of Energy also issued a directive requiring Constellation to maintain operations at its Eddystone facilities. This mandate helps ensure grid stability in the region during periods of high demand.

Share Repurchase Initiative Concluded

Constellation finalized a $2.36 billion share buyback program originally launched in 2023. Large-scale repurchases of this magnitude often signal management’s belief in the company’s underlying value and financial health.

The stock currently trades at a P/E ratio of 24.36. This valuation exceeds historical norms, indicating that the market is anticipating sustained expansion going forward.

CEG’s GF Score — a comprehensive investment assessment tool — registers at 79 out of 100. While the growth component scores 8/10, financial strength receives a 5/10 rating, which some market observers consider an area requiring attention.

Prior to this recent rally, the stock had declined approximately 20.39% year-to-date. The week’s strong performance has substantially narrowed that deficit.

Wall Street consensus estimates for 2029 project revenue of $35.1 billion with earnings reaching $5.8 billion, though optimistic forecasts suggest revenue could hit $44.6 billion with earnings of $7.9 billion. One valuation model calculates a fair value estimate of $370.58 per share.

No insider transactions have been recorded over the trailing twelve-month period.

Key Highlights

• Redwire shares have surged more than 13%, marking three consecutive sessions of gains and new highs
• A $15 million additional U.S. Army contract for Stalker surveillance UAVs was secured, pushing total Stalker orders to $24.8 million in eight months
• The company announced a multi-year, high eight-figure contract with an unnamed NATO partner for Penguin Mk3 drone systems
• Redwire received prime contractor status on DARPA’s “Otter” spaceplane initiative, selecting Voyager Technologies (VOYG) as subcontractor
• Wall Street forecasts suggest $887.3 million in revenues by 2028, though certain valuation analyses indicate fair value around $13.28 — roughly 24% under current trading levels

Redwire (RDW) shares have rallied over 13% during Friday’s trading session, extending a three-day winning streak that has propelled the stock to consecutive new peaks. The aerospace and defense contractor is currently hovering near $17.49 as of Friday’s opening hours.

Redwire Corporation, RDW

The surge follows a series of significant contract announcements spanning both the company’s unmanned aerial vehicle and space technology segments.

The firm secured an additional $15 million purchase order from the U.S. Army’s 1st Aviation Brigade for another batch of Stalker surveillance drones. This brings cumulative Stalker contracts to $24.8 million across the last eight-month period.

Following that announcement came a separate long-term agreement with an unnamed NATO member nation for delivery of Penguin Mk3 unmanned aircraft systems. Company officials characterized the deal as “high eight-figures,” placing its value in the several tens of millions of dollars.

Both agreements flow through Redwire’s Edge Autonomy unit, which the corporation purchased in 2025 for $925 million. The acquisition initially surprised industry observers — Redwire had established itself primarily as a space-focused enterprise. That strategic gamble appears to be paying dividends.

Redwire currently maintains a $498.1 million contract backlog, and these fresh wins contribute to what market watchers view as the crucial question: can expanding defense programs balance out the unpredictability inherent in fixed-price space development work?

Space Division Scores DARPA Win

The drone announcements weren’t the company’s only positive news. Redwire secured prime contractor designation for DARPA’s “Otter” initiative — a program focused on creating air-breathing spaceplane technology for operations in very low Earth orbit (VLEO).

These experimental spacecraft are engineered to partially refuel themselves by “breathing” atmospheric molecules in Earth’s upper reaches — a genuinely innovative approach in aerospace engineering.

For the Otter program, Redwire selected Voyager Technologies (VOYG) as a subcontractor partner. Voyager will provide a high-precision Acceleration Measurement System designed to enable precise maneuvering in VLEO conditions. Voyager’s stock price climbed approximately 12% following the announcement.

While no specific contract amount was revealed for Otter, the prime contractor position positions Redwire at the forefront of an advanced DARPA research program.

Analyst Expectations and Valuation Concerns

Financial projections for Redwire show considerable variation across analyst estimates. Optimistic forecasts anticipate $887.3 million in revenue alongside $73.2 million in earnings by 2028 — suggesting approximately 50% compound annual revenue growth and a $322.7 million improvement from the current $249.5 million loss.

More measured analyst projections estimate 2029 revenue around $736.7 million with earnings reaching $64.8 million.

Certain valuation frameworks calculate fair value at $13.28 per share — approximately 24% beneath current market pricing.

RDW’s 52-week trading range extends from $4.87 to $22.25, while Friday’s trading volume reached 55.4 million shares — more than twice the typical 26 million share average.

The company’s market capitalization currently stands at $3.5 billion as of Friday’s trading.

Key Takeaways

• Greg Abel completely divested Berkshire’s Visa and Mastercard positions in Q1 2026
• Delta Air Lines joined the portfolio with a 39.8 million share purchase valued at $2.8 billion
• The Alphabet investment grew threefold to 54.2 million A shares, totaling $23 billion
• Sixteen smaller holdings were eliminated, including Pool Corp, UnitedHealth, and Amazon
• Apple continues as the portfolio’s dominant position, representing 20.7% of the $330 billion total

Greg Abel’s inaugural quarter as Berkshire Hathaway’s CEO demonstrated a decisive approach to portfolio management, implementing significant changes across the conglomerate’s $330 billion investment portfolio. These strategic moves indicate a notable departure from Warren Buffett’s investment philosophy.

The new CEO orchestrated a complete exit from credit card giants, disposing of Berkshire’s full 8.3 million-share Visa position alongside the entire Mastercard stake. While these holdings each comprised approximately 1% of total assets, their elimination provides insight into Abel’s current assessment of the payment processing industry.

Notably, American Express remained untouched throughout these changes. The financial services company now stands as Berkshire’s second-most valuable investment at $47 billion.

A Return to Aviation Investments

Warren Buffett made headlines by liquidating approximately $4 billion in airline investments during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. The sector remained off-limits under his leadership. Abel has reversed course.

The conglomerate acquired 39.8 million shares of Delta Air Lines (DAL) during the first quarter of 2026, establishing a $2.8 billion stake. Berkshire’s entry came when DAL shares traded at depressed valuations. The stock has appreciated since the initial purchase. While representing roughly 1% of overall holdings, the investment demonstrates substantial commitment.

This decision highlights Abel’s readiness to pursue opportunities his predecessor avoided.

Major Expansion in Alphabet Holdings

Berkshire maintained a modest Alphabet (GOOGL) stake entering 2026. Abel dramatically expanded this position, tripling the investment. The portfolio now contains 54.2 million A shares valued at $23 billion, elevating Alphabet to Berkshire’s seventh-largest holding. Additionally, 3.6 million C shares worth approximately $1 billion were added.

GOOGL currently trades near $383, experiencing a 1.2% decline for the session.

Buffett maintained well-documented skepticism toward technology investments throughout his tenure. Abel demonstrates no such reluctance.

Alphabet is leveraging artificial intelligence to strengthen and expand its core operations. Google Search generated $60.4 billion in first-quarter 2026 revenue, marking 19% year-over-year growth — the fourth consecutive quarter of accelerating performance. Innovations including AI Overviews and AI Mode are reportedly fueling this expansion.

Apple Maintains Dominant Position

Apple continues as Berkshire’s premier investment at 20.7% of portfolio value, despite Buffett liquidating approximately three-quarters of the stake throughout 2024 and 2025. Those reductions aimed to mitigate concentration risk and realize profits after the position exceeded $170 billion at its zenith.

Buffett informed CNBC earlier this year that he supports maintaining Apple as the largest holding and suggested potential future purchases at attractive valuations.

Coca-Cola maintains its standing as another significant AI-related investment. The beverage giant comprises 9.9% of portfolio holdings and distributed $816 million in dividends to Berkshire last year.

Abel simultaneously eliminated 16 smaller positions with minimal portfolio impact. Liquidated holdings included recent acquisitions Pool Corp, UnitedHealth, and Amazon. This consolidation strategy appears designed to eliminate distractions and sharpen investment focus.

As of the first quarter 2026, three AI-connected investments — Apple, Alphabet, and Coca-Cola — collectively represent 37.4% of Berkshire’s complete portfolio.

TLDR:

• Binance Australia will require sender and beneficiary details for all crypto transfers from July 1, 2026.
• Australian users must re-login to Binance accounts on July 1 as part of the mandatory system update rollout.
• Transactions missing required sender or beneficiary information may be delayed, rejected, or returned to origin.
• Users sending crypto to themselves on another exchange only need to provide the receiving exchange’s name.

Binance Australia will introduce new crypto transfer requirements starting July 1, 2026. Australian users must provide sender and beneficiary information for all crypto deposits and withdrawals.

The changes align with local regulatory requirements. Transactions that lack the necessary details may face delays, rejection, or return to the originator. Users should prepare their login credentials, as re-authentication will be required from that date.

New Information Requirements for Crypto Deposits and Withdrawals

The updated procedures will affect all crypto deposit and withdrawal transactions on Binance for Australian users. When receiving crypto, users must visit the deposit page and click on transactions pending credit.

A pop-up will then prompt them to enter the originator’s details. These details include a full name, country of residence, unique identifier, and city or locality.

For outgoing transfers, users will see a pop-up after confirming withdrawal details. They must then enter the beneficiary’s full name, country of residence, and city or locality.

However, users sending assets to themselves on another exchange only need to provide that exchange’s name. This simplifies the process for self-transfers between platforms.

Binance described the move as a step toward full compliance with Australian regulatory standards. The exchange stated it will gradually roll out these changes to ensure a smooth transition.

Users who do not perform crypto transfers are not required to take any action. The changes are strictly limited to deposit and withdrawal activity.

It is worth noting that incomplete information can result in transactions being delayed or rejected outright. In certain deposit cases, assets may be returned to the originating exchange or wallet.

Users are therefore encouraged to have all required details ready before initiating any transfer. Binance also directed users to its privacy notice for details on personal data handling.

What Australian Users Should Prepare Before the July 1 Deadline

As the deadline approaches, Australian users should review their account credentials and ensure they can log back in after July 1. Binance has confirmed that re-login will be mandatory when the new system goes live.

Failing to log in or provide the required details could disrupt access to funds. Early preparation can help users avoid any disruption to their trading activity.

Users sending crypto to external wallets or other exchanges should also gather beneficiary information in advance. Knowing a recipient’s full name, location, and country will speed up the withdrawal process.

For deposits, users should coordinate with the sending party to collect originator details promptly. This coordination becomes especially important for time-sensitive transactions.

Binance’s move is part of a broader global trend where crypto exchanges are aligning with financial regulations. Australia has been tightening its oversight of digital asset platforms in recent years.

These new procedures reflect that regulatory direction. Binance’s proactive approach aims to keep its Australian operations fully compliant while serving its user base without interruption.

Key Takeaways

• Citi upgraded Boeing’s price target to $260 from $256 with a Buy rating, viewing the aerospace defense decline as a strategic entry point
• Defense, Space & Security revenue reached $7.6 billion in Q1, marking a 21% year-over-year increase with an $86 billion backlog
• Boeing exceeded Q1 earnings forecasts with -$0.20 EPS versus analyst estimates of -$0.68, while revenue climbed 14% to $22.22 billion
• A 200-plane order from China was confirmed, and director Bradley D. Tilden purchased nearly $300,000 in company shares
• Challenges persist with 777X certification hurdles and ongoing fixed-price contract concerns

Boeing (BA) stock started Friday’s session at $219.18, hovering narrowly above its 200-day moving average of $218.62, as analysts increasingly focus on the aerospace giant’s defense operations.

The Boeing Company, BA

Citi analysts elevated their Boeing price objective to $260 from $256 this week while reaffirming their Buy recommendation. The firm characterized the recent aerospace and defense sector weakness as a compelling buying window, emphasizing Boeing’s strengthening defense operations as central to the recovery narrative.

First-quarter results support this thesis. Boeing’s Defense, Space & Security division generated $7.6 billion in quarterly revenue, representing a 21% year-over-year jump. Segment operating profit improved to $233 million from $155 million in the prior-year period, while the backlog reached an all-time high of $86 billion, with international clients accounting for 27% of future orders.

Consolidated revenue totaled $22.22 billion in Q1, reflecting 14% annual growth and surpassing Wall Street’s $22.15 billion projection. The per-share loss of $0.20 significantly outperformed the consensus estimate of -$0.68, providing optimistic investors with tangible evidence of improvement.

Boeing’s total backlog expanded to an unprecedented $695 billion.

However, the commercial aviation segment continues facing headwinds. Boeing recorded a GAAP per-share loss of 11 cents, and the 777X certification process has encountered unexpected technical complications, with “hot brakes” emerging as a more substantial issue than initially anticipated. This development pressured shares and reignited questions about the company’s ability to execute smoothly.

Defense Business Strengthens Long-Term Growth Story

Beyond quarterly performance, Boeing secured a seven-year agreement with the U.S. Department of War in April to triple manufacturing output for PAC-3 seekers utilized in Patriot missile defense systems. Since 2024, Boeing has invested over $200 million in expanding production capabilities at its Huntsville, Alabama facility.

The proposed fiscal 2026 defense budget allocates $2.5 billion specifically for missile and munitions manufacturing, sustaining favorable government spending trends.

In March 2025, Boeing received the engineering and manufacturing development contract for the F-47, the Air Force’s Next Generation Air Dominance platform — promoted as the planet’s first sixth-generation combat aircraft. This program provides the defense division with a crucial long-term revenue foundation.

China Aircraft Order and Insider Buying Signal Confidence

China validated a 200-aircraft Boeing purchase as part of expanded U.S.-China trade negotiations, effectively reopening a previously stalled market. While some market participants anticipated a more substantial order volume, potentially capping immediate upside, the agreement nevertheless enhances forward demand clarity.

On the institutional front, Connors Investor Services established a new position valued at approximately $10.46 million during Q4. AXA S.A. expanded its holdings by more than 1,200%. Institutional ownership currently represents roughly 64.82% of outstanding shares.

Director Bradley D. Tilden acquired 1,370 Boeing shares at $218.50 per share on May 20th, totaling $299,345, according to SEC disclosure documents.

The consensus Wall Street rating stands at “Moderate Buy” with an average price objective of $259.80.

A notable blockchain researcher has pushed back on recent criticisms of the Ethereum Foundation, arguing the organization is performing exactly what it was designed to do. In a post on X titled “Leave the Foundation Alone,” William Mougayar—a Toronto-based investor, researcher and best-selling author—contends that ETH, Ethereum and the Ethereum Foundation occupy distinct roles, each following its own trajectory.

Mougayar frames the asset as money, Ethereum as the underlying infrastructure, and the Foundation as a non-profit steward aiming to guide the protocol toward a future where it becomes less central to the ecosystem. He warns that conflating these roles leads to inaccurate predictions and misplaced anger about ETH’s direction.

Key takeaways

• The Ethereum Foundation’s mandate, according to Mougayar, is protocol stewardship and research funding, not marketing or price support for ETH.
• Critics’ demand for the Foundation to promote ETH or court institutions is likened to asking the Internet Engineering Task Force to run ads for TCP/IP.
• In recent weeks, the Foundation completed a third OTC ETH sale to BitMine, moving 10,000 ETH at an average price of about $2,292 (roughly $22.9 million), bringing total BitMine dealings to roughly $47 million.
• Unstaking activity accompanied the sales: 17,035 ETH unlocked (about $40 million), and an additional 21,270 ETH was unstaked from Lido earlier this month (nearing a 70,000 ETH staked milestone in that period).
• ETH was trading around $2,117, up about 4.7% on the day, but remains over 57% below its all-time high of $4,953 reached in August last year, according to CoinMarketCap data.

EF’s role in hardening the protocol, not marketing the asset

In his X post, Mougayar emphasizes that the Ethereum Foundation is deliberately distinct from both the ETH asset and the broader Ethereum network. He describes the EF as pursuing a “subtraction path”—a strategy aimed at making the protocol more autonomous and less dependent on a centralized actor over time. “It is hardening the protocol so the world does not need it so much. It is shipping upgrades. It is funding the research that nobody else funds,” he wrote.

The analogy is pointed: critics who expect the EF to actively market ETH or court institutions are, in Mougayar’s frame, effectively seeking a governing body to replace market signals. He likens that expectation to asking the IETF to run large-scale promotional campaigns for TCP/IP—a comparison meant to separate technical governance from promotional ambition.

Market moves and investor implications

The timing and nature of the Foundation’s treasury activities have long been a subject of debate within crypto circles. Earlier this month, the EF completed its third over-the-counter sale of ETH to BitMine Immersion Technologies, offloading 10,000 ETH at an average price of $2,292. The deal, valued at about $22.9 million, followed two prior transactions—5,000 ETH in March and another 10,000 ETH the week before—bringing the aggregate to around $47 million in ETH sales to BitMine in recent weeks.

These sales have coincided with unstaking activity that supporters frame as treasury management rather than a market-moving signal. The Foundation unstaked 17,035 ETH worth roughly $40 million, and earlier in the month, an additional 21,270 ETH were unstaked from Lido, valued at nearly $50 million. The pace of unstaking, combined with the sales, has fed ongoing questions about the Foundation’s influence on ETH’s price trajectory.

From a price perspective, Ethereum stood around $2,117, up about 4.7% on the day of the report. While this marks a positive swing in the short term, ETH remains significantly below its all-time high of $4,953 recorded in August last year, underscoring that Foundation actions are just one of many factors shaping the token’s broader market behavior. CoinMarketCap’s data underscores the longer-term context facing investors who weigh the asset as a potential long-term holding against ongoing shifts in staking, liquidity and supply dynamics.

What this means for holders and developers

Taken together, Mougayar’s perspective and the Foundation’s recent activity highlight a broader shift in the Ethereum ecosystem: governance and funding mechanisms are decoupling from price-centric narratives. For investors, the takeaway is twofold. First, a more autonomous protocol—achieved through upgrades and sustained, targeted research funding—could reduce systemic reliance on any single institution, potentially contributing to long-run resilience. Second, the Treasury’s use of ETH through OTC sales and unstaking moves introduces a continuing element of treasury management that may constrain near-term supply dynamics and, by extension, price sensitivity to major moves by the EF.

Market observers will be watching how the EF aligns its actions with the long-term health of Ethereum’s core protocols, including upcoming upgrades and research funding decisions. While critics may view such treasury activity as a headwind for price, proponents argue it reflects prudent stewardship aimed at preserving decentralization and protocol integrity over time. As with previous cycles, the ultimate impact will hinge on a mix of on-chain developments, macro conditions and the evolving regulatory environment surrounding crypto asset management.

For now, Mougayar’s argument reframes the debate: the Ethereum Foundation is not an advertising arm but a foundational institution whose work is intended to outlast any single market cycle. The coming quarters will reveal whether this approach strengthens Ethereum’s long-term viability and how it shapes the appetite of investors and builders alike.

Readers should monitor upcoming EF upgrades, research funding announcements and treasury activity, which together will illuminate how the foundation navigates its shrinking centrality while continuing to support the protocol’s evolution.

Bitcoin (BTC) fell to $74,190 on Saturday, its lowest level in more than a month, despite pro-crypto Kevin Warsh being sworn in as Federal Reserve chairman a day earlier.

BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView

Key takeaways:

• Higher odds of a rate hike in 2026 are pressuring the Bitcoin market.
• Bitcoin has historically struggled during years marked by Federal Reserve leadership changes.

Why is Bitcoin down despite a pro-crypto Fed chair?

Bitcoin’s sell-off came as the 2-year US Treasury yield climbed to 4.14%, its highest level since February 2025.

US 2-year bond yield daily chart. Source: TradingView

The 2-year yield is closely tied to where traders expect the federal funds rate to move in the near term. Its move above the Fed’s current 3.50%–3.75% target range suggests markets are no longer betting on quick easing under Warsh.

CME data shows traders now expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged for most of 2026, with futures pricing pointing to a possible 25 basis point hike in December.

Target rate probabilities for the December Fed meeting. Source: CME

Over the past three decades, the Fed has typically raised rates when the 2-year Treasury yield moved above the federal funds rate, as the gap suggested markets were pricing in tighter policy ahead, according to data provided by BCA Research.

US 2-year Treasury yield vs. US Fed fund target rate. Source: BCA Research

Conversely, when the 2-year yield fell below the Fed funds rate, it often signaled expectations for future rate cuts.

Related: Bitcoin ETFs snap 5-day inflow streak as BTC dips under $80K

Such a shift weakens the bullish case for BTC, which typically benefits from falling yields, lower real rates and easier liquidity conditions.

Warsh is “a known inflation hawk”

In the past, Warsh has spoken favorably about Bitcoin, criticized central bank digital currency, and backed a larger role for private-sector financial innovation. For crypto traders, that checks several bullish boxes.

But from a monetary-policy perspective, Warsh may still challenge the bullish Bitcoin narrative, according to analyst Crypto Patel.

In a Saturday post, Patel noted that Warsh is “a known inflation hawk,” not a dove, adding that a difficult macro backdrop, including Iran war-driven inflation risks and labor-market pressure, may keep him from slashing rates.

“Crypto-friendly on regulation is NOT the same as dovish on rates,” he said.

Bitcoin underperforms in years of Fed leadership changes

Another warning comes from Bitcoin’s historical reaction to Fed leadership changes.

In a Saturday post, analyst Lucky noted that BTC has struggled during previous chair transitions: it fell 84% after Janet Yellen took over in January 2014, 73% after Jerome Powell started in February 2018, and 60% after Powell began his second term in May 2022.

Source: X

Warsh’s takeover has so far coincided with a sharp BTC decline, suggesting traders may again be de-risking as they wait for policy clarity from the new Fed chief.

Bank of America reported about $53 million in crypto ETF exposure in its Q1 2026 13F filing, with BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust leading the group. 

The filing showed a larger IBIT position and smaller Ether and Solana ETF exposure, putting Bitcoin at the center of the bank’s reported crypto ETF basket.

Bank of America held 972,590 shares of IBIT worth about $37.3 million at the end of the quarter, up from 719,008 shares in the prior filing. That made IBIT the largest single crypto ETF position in the bank’s report.

The bank also held smaller Bitcoin ETF positions across other issuers. Its reported holdings included about $7.98 million in Bitwise’s BITB, $3.32 million in Grayscale’s Bitcoin Mini Trust, and about $1.71 million in Fidelity’s FBTC. Smaller positions in GBTC, VanEck’s HODL, and ARKB also stayed on the books.

Ether and Solana exposure moves lower

The filing showed lower exposure to Ether and Solana products during the same quarter. Bank of America’s Ethereum allocation stood near $1.06 million through BlackRock’s ETHA, with 67,492 shares remaining after the reduction.

The bank also sold 700 shares of the Volatility Shares 2x Solana ETF and kept 10,296 shares of the standard Solana ETF, valued near $86,000. XRP exposure stayed unchanged at 13,000 shares of the Volatility Shares XRP ETF, worth about $98,500.

Strategy stock dwarfs ETF holdings

The ETF positions were smaller than the bank’s crypto-linked equity exposure. The filing also showed 3.96 million shares of Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy, valued near $660 million.

Strategy remains widely tracked because of its large Bitcoin treasury. For Bank of America, that equity position was more than twelve times larger than its direct crypto ETF exposure at quarter-end.

Bank filings add to institutional ETF trend

The filing was submitted to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as a Form 13F-HR. The SEC filing page lists a May 18 filing date and a March 31 reporting period.

Related crypto.news coverage reported that Wells Fargo also used regulated crypto products in Q1, with IBIT still its largest crypto ETF position at about $250 million. The same report noted that 13F filings show holdings, not the reason behind each trade.

A separate crypto.news report cited a Coinbase and EY-Parthenon survey of 351 institutions. It found that 73% planned to increase digital asset allocations in 2026, while regulated products had become the preferred exposure route for about two-thirds of respondents.