Connect with us

Crypto World

If War With Iran Is Almost Certain, How Might Bitcoin Price React?

Published

on

If War With Iran Is Almost Certain, How Might Bitcoin Price React?

Bitcoin price is on the edge again.

Price swings are getting crazy, and it’s sitting around $67,400 like it’s not sure which way to jump. Traders are nervous. Really nervous.

On Polymarket, bettors now put the odds of a U.S. strike on Iran this month at 61%. Crypto felt it fast. Liquidations rolled in. Risk-off mode kicked on. And suddenly, everyone’s playing defense.

Key Takeaways

The Signal: Polymarket bettors price in a 61% chance of imminent US military action.

Advertisement

The Risk: Short-Term Holder SOPR has dipped below 1.0, indicating panic selling at a loss.

The Impact: Bitcoin risks breaking critical $65,000 support if conflict escalates this weekend.

Why Is This Happening Now?

Tensions between Washington and Tehran feels almost certain now.

Advertisement

Reports say the Pentagon has strike options ready after nuclear talks stalled. That kind of headline pushes investors straight into gold and cash. Risk assets get dumped first.

On chain data backs it up. The Short Term Holder SOPR is below 1. That means recent buyers are selling at a loss just to get out.

Source: CryptoQuant

Add in uncertainty around possible Fed policy tweaks and you get a messy mix. Geopolitics plus macro pressure. While the US Iran story dominates, Bitcoin is trading like a classic risk asset, with sharp intraday drops and fragile sentiment.

What Does This Mean for Bitcoin Price?

Bitcoin is leaning hard on the $66,000 to $65,729 support zone. Lose that on a daily close and $60,000 comes into focus fast.

Advertisement

The short term Sharpe ratio has flipped negative, showing ugly risk adjusted returns during the panic. Nearly $80M in longs have already been wiped out since the drop from $70,000.

Source: BTCUSD / TradingView

While retail is dumping, some political insiders are floating massive long term targets. That hints whales may see this dip as opportunity. Arthur Hayes also pointed to Treasury liquidity dynamics that could support crypto once the dust settles.

Volatility into the weekend looks guaranteed. But talks in Oman on Friday could change the tone. If tensions cool, a sharp relief rally could trap late shorts.

Discover: Here are the crypto likely to explode!

The post If War With Iran Is Almost Certain, How Might Bitcoin Price React? appeared first on Cryptonews.

Advertisement

Source link

Continue Reading
Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Crypto World

Tennessee Judge Blocks State Crackdown on Kalshi Markets

Published

on

Adoption, CFTC, Legislation, United States, Prediction Markets

A US federal judge in Tennessee temporarily blocked the state from enforcing its gambling laws against prediction markets operator Kalshi’s sports event contracts. 

The ruling, issued by Judge Aleta Trauger of the US District Court for the Middle District of Tennessee on Thursday, allows Kalshi to continue offering sports-related event contracts to users in the state while its lawsuit against Tennessee regulators proceeds.

Trauger found that Kalshi is likely to succeed on the merits of its claim that federal commodities law preempts Tennessee’s attempt to regulate its sports markets as illegal gambling. 

The court concluded that Kalshi’s sports event contracts are “swaps” under the Commodity Exchange Act, over which the law grants the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) exclusive jurisdiction, and held that Tennessee’s enforcement efforts are likely preempted under conflict preemption principles. 

Advertisement
Adoption, CFTC, Legislation, United States, Prediction Markets
Preliminary injunction, Kalshi. Source: CourtListener

The injunction applies to the identified state officials, while the Tennessee Sports Wagering Council itself was dismissed on sovereign immunity grounds, and Kalshi was ordered to post a $500,000 bond.

Long-running clash with states

The Tennessee case marks another chapter in a broader clash over how to treat event contracts in the United States.

An earlier temporary restraining order from Trauger had already paused enforcement of Tennessee’s cease-and-desist letter, which alleged that Kalshi was operating unlicensed sports wagering, ordered it to stop offering sports event contracts to customers in Tennessee, void those contracts and refund deposits, and threatened fines and further legal action. 

Related: Nevada court hits Polymarket with temporary restraining order, tests CFTC control

Kalshi has similarly gone to federal court in multiple states, including Nevada, New Jersey, and Connecticut, over cease-and-desist actions targeting its event markets, with courts reaching divergent conclusions on whether to grant preliminary relief.

Advertisement

CFTC steps in to defend prediction markets

​The injunction also lands against a shifting federal backdrop, as the CFTC moves to assert primacy over prediction markets.

In a video message on Tuesday, CFTC Chair Michael Selig said the agency had filed a friend-of-the-court brief to defend its “exclusive jurisdiction” over prediction markets, warning state authorities that the commission would meet them in court if they tried to undermine federal oversight of these derivative markets.

AI Eye: IronClaw rivals OpenClaw, Olas launches bots for Polymarket