As the USD/JPY chart shows, the pair posted solid bullish momentum in the second half of February. This move was driven by a combination of fundamental factors, including:

→ The appointment of two academics to the central bank’s board, both regarded as strong advocates of economic stimulus through a weaker yen and accommodative lending conditions.

→ Concerns over further interest rate hikes, voiced by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi during a meeting with Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda.

Expectations of a softer yen led to renewed weakness in the currency (A→B), forming the upward trajectory highlighted in purple.

However, on Wednesday the pair retreated, which appears to be an interim pullback from point B. Technical analysis of the USD/JPY chart suggests that extending the move along the purple trajectory may prove challenging.

Factors that could favour the bears include:

→ The median line of the ascending channel (constructed from key reversal points marked by thicker lines). The median often acts as a balance zone where supply and demand converge and trends lose momentum.

→ The proximity of the significant 157.70 resistance level, which already acted as resistance in 2025. Although price broke above it in January 2026 (with the level briefly showing signs of support), following the sharp sell-off on 23 January it once again served as a barrier for bulls on 9 February.

→ Trend line R, drawn through the lower highs of 2026.

Therefore, it cannot be ruled out that the lower purple boundary may be breached by bears, potentially leading the market into a period of consolidation while awaiting fresh economic and political catalysts.

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The US Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) has dropped a 376‑page proposal to implement the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act that looks to settle the ongoing stablecoin yield fight.

The proposal is open to public comment for 60 days from Wednesday’s publication date, and sets out detailed rules for permitted payment stablecoin issuers under the OCC’s jurisdiction.

Supervised entities would be barred from paying any form of interest or yield, whether in cash, tokens, or other consideration, “solely in connection with the holding, use, or retention” of a payment stablecoin, consistent with section 4(a)(11) of the GENIUS Act. 

Thania Charmani, partner at global law firm Winston & Strawn, commented on X that the OCC proposed to “resolve the debate on stablecoin yield through rulemaking,” potentially clearing the way for the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (CLARITY) to “proceed without that provision.”

How the OCC proposal implements GENIUS on yield

GENIUS, enacted in July 2025, created a federal framework for payment stablecoins and restricted issuance in the US to licensed permitted issuers such as bank subsidiaries, new federal stablecoin issuers, and certain large state‑regulated firms. 

The OCC’s draft rule translates that statutory framework into operational constraints, including tight limits on how GENIUS‑regulated issuers can structure economics around their stablecoins.

The proposal goes a step further, adding a rebuttable presumption that an issuer is violating the ban on paying yield if it has an arrangement to pay yield to an affiliate or “related third party” and that entity then pays yield to holders of the issuer’s payment stablecoin. 

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Issuers can try to rebut the presumption by submitting written materials to the OCC, but the agency stresses the “close nexus” between issuer payments and end‑holder yield and frames such structures as “highly likely” attempts to evade the statute.

​The proposal also draws two explicit carve‑outs. It “is not intended to prevent” merchants from independently offering discounts for using payment stablecoins, and it does not bar an issuer from sharing profits from the stablecoin with a non‑affiliate partner in a whitelabel arrangement. 

What the proposal means for CLARITY and Coinbase

If the OCC’s proposed rule is finalized as drafted, it would have direct implications for the separate CLARITY Act debate over stablecoin rewards. 

CLARITY drafts have focused on whether digital asset service providers should be allowed to pay yield or rewards on payment stablecoin balances, a point of contention that has already caused friction between industry stakeholders, such as Coinbase.

By using GENIUS implementation to prohibit yield at the issuer level, the banking side of the framework effectively establishes a no‑yield baseline for GENIUS‑compliant payment stablecoins.

For Coinbase and similar firms that have argued they should be able to offer yield on stablecoin balances while operating within a fully regulated US framework, the message is clear:

Stablecoin yield and GENIUS‑compliant, OCC‑supervised payment stablecoins are being put on opposite sides of a regulatory line.

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