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Iran Conflict and Economic Data: Events in Focus for 2-6 March

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Iran Conflict and Economic Data: Events in Focus for 2-6 March

Let’s discuss three upcoming events that may impact market activity across currencies, equities, and commodities.

✔️Washington and Israel struck Iran, the supreme leader of Iran Ayatollah Khamenei was killed. Iran retaliated, escalating tensions.

Oil jumped over 8%, global stocks fell, and so-called safe-haven assets rose. A Strait of Hormuz disruption could push oil sharply higher and increase recession risks (in our previous video, we outlined possible scenarios if US–Iran tensions escalate further.

✔️ The US Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate will arrive on 6 March.

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January’s strong jobs data pushed rate-cut expectations further out and caused a mixed market reaction. This week’s report could drive sharp moves in major USD pairs and US stock indices.

✔️The ISM Manufacturing PMI and ISM Services PMI will be released on 2 March and 4 March, respectively.

Following the first expansion signal in US manufacturing activity in twelve months — and the strongest improvement since 2022 — the upcoming ISM Manufacturing PMI release may become an early-week catalyst for US dollar positioning.

January’s ISM Services PMI confirmed resilience in the dominant sector of the US economy, and another strong reading would reinforce expectations that Federal Reserve policy will remain restrictive for longer, underpinning the USD.

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Traders should stay alert — disciplined risk management will be key in the days ahead.

Gain insights to strengthen your trading knowledge.

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This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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Crypto World

Fed fallout slows Crypto ETP inflows to $230 million

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Fed fallout slows Crypto ETP inflows to $230 million

Crypto investment products posted another week of net inflows, but the pace slowed as markets reacted to the latest US Federal Reserve meeting. 

Summary

  • Crypto ETPs extended their inflow streak to four weeks, though momentum dropped sharply after FOMC.
  • Bitcoin funds added $219.2 million, while Ether products saw $27.5 million in weekly outflows.
  • US spot Bitcoin ETFs stayed positive, but spot Ether ETFs recorded fresh weekly outflows.

Data from CoinShares showed that digital asset exchange-traded products brought in $230 million last week, extending the positive run to four straight weeks.

CoinShares reported that crypto ETPs recorded $230 million in net inflows during the week. That figure was well below the $1.06 billion posted a week earlier, showing that investor demand cooled as the week progressed.

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James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares, linked the slowdown to a “hawkish pause” reading of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting. He said the weekly pattern supported that view, as products saw solid inflows early in the week before flows turned lower after the Fed decision.

Bitcoin (BTC) investment products drew the largest share of last week’s inflows. CoinShares data showed that Bitcoin funds added $219.2 million, accounting for nearly all of the week’s net gains across the digital asset product market.

Ether products moved in the opposite direction. They posted $27.5 million in outflows, ending a three-week inflow streak. The reversal came as investors reduced exposure after the Fed meeting and a broader change in risk appetite.

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In addition, Solana continued to stand out among altcoin-focused products. Solana ETPs brought in $17 million last week, marking the seventh straight week of inflows. That pushed the total for the streak to $136 million.

Other digital assets also posted gains. Chainlink products recorded $4.6 million in inflows, while Hyperliquid products added $4.5 million. These numbers showed that interest in selected altcoins remained in place even as broader market momentum slowed.

US spot Bitcoin ETFs stay positive for the week

US spot Bitcoin ETFs contributed a large share of Bitcoin-related inflows. SoSoValue data showed that these funds brought in $95.2 million last week, helping extend their winning run to four consecutive weeks.

The four-week stretch lifted total gains for US spot Bitcoin ETFs to $2.2 billion over that period. Even so, the funds still showed about $400 million in net outflows for the year. US spot Ether ETFs also lost momentum, recording about $60 million in weekly outflows and $599 million in outflows year to date.

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Crypto World

Strategy Buys 1,031 Bitcoin Using MSTR Stock Sales

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Strategy Buys 1,031 Bitcoin Using MSTR Stock Sales

Michael Saylor’s Strategy, the world’s largest public holder of Bitcoin (BTC), bought another 1,031 Bitcoin last week in a much smaller purchase than its previous two weekly buys, funding the acquisition with sales of Class A common stock.

Strategy acquired 1,031 Bitcoin for $76.6 million last week, according to an 8-K filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission on Monday.

The purchases were made at an average price of $74,326 per coin, below the company’s overall average acquisition price of $75,694. Bitcoin averaged around $70,871 for the week of March 16-22, based on daily closing prices.

The new acquisitions bring Strategy’s holdings to 762,099 BTC, acquired for a total cost of roughly $57.69 billion, the company said.

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Source: SEC

Common stock funded the latest buy

Strategy’s relatively modest purchase follows larger Bitcoin acquisitions recently, including a 22,337 BTC buy reported last Monday and a 17,994 BTC buy a week earlier.

The 22,337 BTC ($1.6 billion) purchase ranks among Strategy’s largest on record and was largely funded through sales of its perpetual preferred equity, Stretch (STRC). The stock generated approximately $1.2 billion, accounting for about 75% of the total purchase.

Related: Strategy records biggest STRC issuance day with estimated 1,420 BTC buy

Unlike the prior week’s funding mix, the latest purchase appears to have been funded through sales of Strategy’s Class A common stock rather than preferred equity.

Source: SEC

Strategy has bought 41,362 Bitcoin for around $2.93 billion in March. With Bitcoin trading at $70,430 at the time of writing, the company is down around 7% on its BTC holdings, now worth around $54 billion, according to data from CoinGecko.

Related: Strategy halts Bitcoin buying via STRC: Will BTC price dip again?

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Strategy’s holdings are roughly 3% below the Bitcoin holdings of BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT), which held about 785,300 BTC on behalf of its clients after the close of trading on Friday.

US spot Bitcoin ETFs collectively held nearly 1.3 million BTC as of March 20, representing roughly 6.1% of the 21 million maximum Bitcoin supply, according to data from WalletPilot.

Magazine: Metaplanet’s Japan Bitcoin bet, Bithumb ordered suspension: Asia Express