Iran Conflict and Economic Data: Events in Focus for 2-6 March

Let’s discuss three upcoming events that may impact market activity across currencies, equities, and commodities.

✔️Washington and Israel struck Iran, the supreme leader of Iran Ayatollah Khamenei was killed. Iran retaliated, escalating tensions.

Oil jumped over 8%, global stocks fell, and so-called safe-haven assets rose. A Strait of Hormuz disruption could push oil sharply higher and increase recession risks (in our previous video, we outlined possible scenarios if US–Iran tensions escalate further.

✔️ The US Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate will arrive on 6 March.

January’s strong jobs data pushed rate-cut expectations further out and caused a mixed market reaction. This week’s report could drive sharp moves in major USD pairs and US stock indices.

✔️The ISM Manufacturing PMI and ISM Services PMI will be released on 2 March and 4 March, respectively.

Following the first expansion signal in US manufacturing activity in twelve months — and the strongest improvement since 2022 — the upcoming ISM Manufacturing PMI release may become an early-week catalyst for US dollar positioning.

January’s ISM Services PMI confirmed resilience in the dominant sector of the US economy, and another strong reading would reinforce expectations that Federal Reserve policy will remain restrictive for longer, underpinning the USD.

Traders should stay alert — disciplined risk management will be key in the days ahead.

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