A fresh bitcoin price read from on-chain data shows that the total supply of BTC last moved between $60,000 and $70,000 has grown by approximately 844,275 coins since January 1 — bringing the total cluster in that range to 1.85 million BTC and giving analysts one of the clearest accumulation signals of the current cycle.

The bitcoin (BTC) price consolidation between $65,000 and $73,000 over the past six weeks looks choppy on price charts but reveals a different picture in on-chain data. According to Glassnode’s UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) — which tracks where existing BTC last moved on-chain — the $60,000 to $70,000 range has absorbed 844,275 additional BTC since January 1. As Bitcoin Magazine reported, institutional buyers including ETF vehicles absorbed roughly $2.1 billion in inflows over a three-week period, nearly offsetting year-to-date outflows of $460 million — a sign that large capital is treating the current range as an entry zone.

The data does not say Bitcoin is about to break higher. It says a significant number of market participants have established cost basis in the $60,000 to $70,000 range and are unlikely to panic sell within it.

The URPD is useful precisely because it tells analysts not just where Bitcoin is trading, but where holders paid for their coins. A dense cluster in the $60,000 to $70,000 zone means that a large volume of BTC would need to drop below that range before those holders go underwater and begin selling defensively. The bigger the cluster, the stronger the implied support.

Lacie Zhang of Bitget Wallet assessed the current data landscape: “Bitcoin may be entering the late stage of a typical bear cycle,” she said — a framing that historically precedes base-formation behavior rather than additional downside. Matt Hougan, CIO of Bitwise, pointed to institutional behavior as the structural underpinning: “The best evidence we have is in the ETF market,” he noted, citing continued ETF inflows during the correction as confirmation that large allocators see current levels as accumulation opportunities rather than exits.

The Supply Air Gap Above $70K and What It Signals

The flip side of the $60,000 to $70,000 accumulation story is the supply gap directly above it. Between $70,000 and $80,000, only approximately 400,000 BTC last moved on-chain — a thin overhead supply zone that could accelerate price movement once buying pressure is sufficient to push through it.

In practice, air gaps work in both directions: less supply above $70,000 means fewer holders who would sell at a small profit to recover cost basis, which reduces resistance. But without a catalyst strong enough to bring fresh capital into the market, the gap does not self-execute. The Iran war ceasefire outlook, Federal Reserve rate policy, and spot ETF flow trends are the three variables analysts are watching most closely to determine which direction the $65,000 to $73,000 range breaks.

As crypto.news reported, Bitcoin briefly touched $70,200 on Monday when ceasefire talks surfaced, demonstrating that the demand capacity for a sustained break above $70,000 exists — but evaporated within hours when Iran rejected the proposal. As crypto.news noted, open interest has been declining alongside price consolidation, suggesting leveraged traders have largely been flushed and the remaining buyer base is more structurally stable.

The 844,275 BTC accumulated below $70,000 since January represents the market collectively deciding that this range is worth owning. Whether the Iran war deadline tonight validates or undermines that decision is the most consequential near-term variable.

Key takeaways:

• The US and Iran ceasefire boosted stock markets and Bitcoin, but BTC derivatives suggest limited bullish momentum.

• Legislative setbacks and a “fragile truce” between the US and Iran keep bears active with a potential $68,000 correction on the cards.

Bitcoin (BTC) rallied 6% in less than four hours on Tuesday, following gains in global stock markets after the US and Iran reached a two-week ceasefire deal. The rally caught traders off guard, triggering a $280 million liquidation event in Bitcoin futures markets.

Bitcoin bears could be in trouble if the war in Iran effectively winds down, but BTC derivatives signal that sustainable bullish momentum above $80,000 could take longer than anticipated.

Bitcoin’s high correlation with the S&P 500 futures suggests that BTC’s rally was mainly led by the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. US President Donald Trump said that Iran’s nuclear program will be deactivated in exchange for tariff and sanctions relief. However, Bitcoin bears’ hopes jumped after US Vice President JD Vance said that the Iran ceasefire is a “fragile truce.”

Persistent inflationary pressure and weak Bitcoin derivatives metrics

A sustainable de-escalation would likely lead to lower oil prices and reduced inflationary pressure, potentially paving the way for expansionist monetary policies. The US Federal Reserve has remained reluctant to trim interest rates despite signs of a weakening job market. Traders who previously exited risk markets changed their minds as the odds of a severe economic impact declined.

While $280 million in forced liquidations of bearish leveraged positions accelerated the rally, BTC derivatives positioning showed no major shifts.

Bitcoin futures aggregate open interest reached 593,930 BTC on Wednesday, up 2.5% from Tuesday. Crucially, liquidations of $200 million to $300 million are relatively common, having occurred five other times over the past 90 days. This $280 million instance remains minor compared to the total $42 billion aggregate futures position.

The Bitcoin futures annualized premium relative to regular spot markets stood at 3% on Wednesday, flat from two days prior. The lack of demand for bullish positions has pushed the indicator below the neutral 4% threshold since late January.

Demand for downside protection Bitcoin options has prevailed over the past two weeks. Premiums on put (sell) options have outpaced the buy (call) instruments, although distancing themselves from the extreme fear levels seen on March 26.

Will regulatory hurdles nix the  Bitcoin rally?

Bitcoin bulls’ confidence had already been hit from the Oct. 10, 2025, flash crash, the disappointment with regulation and the lack of progress on the US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. The latest draft of the PARITY Act failed to include tax exemptions for small Bitcoin payments or deferred capital gains for mining. Additionally, David Sacks stepped down from his role as the White House AI and cryptocurrency czar on March 26.

Related: Iran is weighing crypto tolls for ships using Strait of Hormuz–Report

Despite multiple mentions from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in 2025 regarding “budget neutral” strategies to acquire Bitcoin without adding new taxes, no clear path was ever disclosed. Simultaneously, the US Democratic Party has requested that regulators scrutinize the Trump family’s cryptocurrency ventures based on potential conflicts of interest.

There is no indication that Bitcoin bears are rushing to close their shorts despite the recent rally. Inflationary pressure has not yet faded, as Brent crude oil prices held at $95 per barrel, up from $72 per barrel in late February. More importantly, a two-week ceasefire is far from a long-term solution, leaving the odds of a correction to $68,000 wide open.