Key Takeaways

• Seasoned analyst Peter Brandt identified a rising wedge pattern suggesting potential declines toward $60,000 or as low as $49,000.
• BTC experienced a 4%+ decline on March 27, settling in the $65,720–$66,030 range.
• Deribit’s $14.16 billion options settlement eliminated 40% of outstanding contracts and sparked more than $115 million in leveraged long liquidations.
• Escalating Middle East tensions between the U.S., Israel, and Iran are pushing capital flows toward the dollar and away from risk assets including Bitcoin.
• Market experts from CEX.IO and Bitget Wallet anticipate additional downward pressure, highlighting $60,000 as a critical threshold.

Bitcoin experienced a significant pullback on March 27, shedding more than 4% of its value to hover near $65,720 as mounting geopolitical uncertainties converged with the largest quarterly options settlement on record.

The selloff intensified as ongoing hostilities involving the United States, Israel, and Iran prompted market participants to rotate into traditional safe-haven assets, particularly the U.S. dollar. Iran’s continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz amplified market anxiety, despite conflicting reports from former President Trump suggesting limited oil tanker passage as a diplomatic concession.

Renowned market technician Peter Brandt shared analysis on X highlighting a developing rising wedge formation—a classic bearish reversal pattern. His technical projection identifies $60,000 as the immediate downside objective should the pattern complete.

In a follow-up post, Brandt presented an alternate scenario targeting $49,000 as a potential multi-month price floor for Bitcoin. He emphasized that BTC demonstrates stronger adherence to traditional technical analysis principles than most asset classes.

Brandt’s previous forecasts called for Bitcoin to breach the $50,000 level during the current market correction cycle. His recent commentary reinforces this bearish outlook.

Record Options Settlement Creates Market Turbulence

On March 27 at 08:00 UTC, leading derivatives exchange Deribit processed a massive $14.16 billion Bitcoin options expiration—the largest single settlement event in 2026. This represented approximately 40% of the platform’s total open interest being closed simultaneously.

The cascading effect triggered liquidations exceeding $115 million across leveraged long positions within just 60 minutes. Current data shows Bitcoin’s put-to-call ratio standing above 0.62, indicating a predominance of bearish positioning over bullish bets among derivatives traders.

Illia Otychenko, principal analyst at CEX.IO, characterized the current environment as bearish across both macroeconomic fundamentals and market sentiment. He cautioned that a breakdown below present channel support would likely catalyze a test of the $60,000 level.

Market Observers Anticipate Continued Volatility

Lacie Zhang, a research analyst with Bitget Wallet, noted that institutional players have systematically unwound bullish Bitcoin exposure throughout the quarter as part of yield-generation strategies. The expiration of these derivative positions removes a significant stabilizing force from the market structure.

Independent analyst Ted projects Bitcoin could breach $50,000 during Q2 2026 before potentially staging a sharp recovery toward $100,000 by year-end.

Zhang emphasized that Bitcoin must convincingly reclaim and sustain trading above $75,000 to restore positive momentum. Absent this development, she anticipates increasingly erratic price action with amplified volatility.

Surging crude oil valuations have driven the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield to its highest point since July 2025, further weighing on non-income-producing assets such as cryptocurrency.

Research analysts at Bernstein maintained their year-end Bitcoin price forecast of $150,000, pointing to historical patterns showing BTC outperformance relative to gold during periods of heightened global uncertainty.

The critical technical barrier for Bitcoin remains at $66,000. Technical analysts warn that a confirmed daily close beneath this support zone could accelerate downward momentum toward the $50,000 region.

Firelight said it is preparing an on-chain protection layer backed by staked XRP as DeFi projects face renewed security pressure. 

The plan follows a new milestone for the protocol, which said staked XRP on Firelight has now passed 50 million on Flare.

According to a press release, Firelight crossed 50 million staked XRP after a series of large deposits. The report said several whale deposits were above 1 million XRP each, while the protocol also expanded capacity for FXRP deposits.

Firelight operates on Flare’s FAssets system, where users deposit XRP, mint FXRP, and stake it in Firelight’s vault in return for stXRP. Firelight said stXRP can then move across the Flare ecosystem for other DeFi uses.

Firelight said the current vault is designed to pool capital for its DeFi Cover engine. In a recent protocol update, the team said the cover product is planned for Q2 and would track “Total Value Covered,” a measure tied to protected capital rather than deposited capital alone.

The protocol said the protection layer is meant to cover risks tied to smart contract failures, oracle issues, bridge exploits, and other economic vulnerabilities. Firelight expects this second phase to let other protocols buy protection backed by the staked FXRP pool.

Security demand rises as exploit losses build

Firelight linked the rollout to the pace of recent DeFi losses. Thefts tied to DeFi exploits in the first quarter of 2026 passed $137 million, while Firelight pointed to a recent stablecoin exploit that produced $23 million in unbacked tokens after a private key leak.

In its latest protocol note, Firelight said its vaults were audited by OpenZeppelin and Coinspect, and that the FAssets bridge also went through audits. The same update said the first 25 million FXRP deposit ceiling filled within six hours, and the raised 65 million FXRP cap moved past the halfway mark soon after.

Firelight said it is building the protection layer with Sentora. Sentora is an institutional DeFi intelligence platform formed through the merger of IntoTheBlock and Trident Digital.

The partnership places Firelight’s next phase around risk management as much as staking. For XRP holders on Flare, the plan would tie staking activity to a protection market that targets DeFi security failures across multiple risk categories.

• Legislative Scope: The Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act covers the president, vice president, all members of Congress, political appointees, and federal agency employees — with mandatory reporting of any contract wager exceeding $250 within 30 days.
• Penalty Structure: Violations carry fines up to double the amount of profits earned, targeting financial incentives directly rather than imposing flat regulatory penalties.
• Market Implication: Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket — which updated trading rules on March 23, 2026, to ban use of confidential information — now face potential CFTC scrutiny and mandatory compliance audits if either bill advances to markup.

P2P.me said it traded on a Polymarket contract tied to its own fundraising round before the raise went live. 

The disclosure adds fresh attention to insider trading risks on prediction markets as US lawmakers and platforms move to tighten rules.

The team behind the decentralized trading platform said it opened positions on Polymarket 10 days before its capital raise launched. The market asked whether the project would reach its $6 million target. At that time, the team said it had only one “oral commitment” from Multicoin Capital for $3 million, with “no signed term sheets” and “no guaranteed allocations.”

The raise later closed at $5.2 million, below the target, and the market resolved to “no.” The team said it understands why some people may see the trade as a trust issue, even though it did not view the bet as trading on a completed deal.

P2P.me said any profits from the positions will go back to its MetaDAO treasury, which serves as the reserve for the DAO that governs the platform. The team also said it is liquidating all open Polymarket positions and putting in place a formal company policy on prediction market trading.

In its statement, the team said, 

“Trading on an outcome you can influence erodes trust.” It added that “not disclosing at the time was a mistake we own.” 

Those remarks came as the platform moved to address criticism around market conduct and transparency.

Prediction markets face wider policy pressure

The disclosure comes as scrutiny around prediction markets grows in Washington and beyond. On March 25, Representatives Nikki Budzinski and Adrian Smith introduced the PREDICT Act, a bipartisan bill aimed at stopping senior government officials from insider trading on prediction markets.

At the same time, Polymarket and Kalshi have both announced tighter insider trading rules. Polymarket now says users cannot trade on contracts when they hold confidential information or can influence an outcome, while California barred state officials from using insider knowledge to bet on platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi. 

A separate Senate bill would ban event contracts tied to elections, sports, government actions, and military moves.

Key Takeaways

• Mining a single Bitcoin cost approximately $80,000 during Q4 2025, creating a ~$19,000 loss per coin with BTC trading near $70,000
• Public mining companies have secured more than $70 billion in artificial intelligence and high-performance computing deals
• AI revenue could comprise as much as 70% of miner income by late 2026, up from approximately 30% currently
• Mining firms are liquidating Bitcoin holdings and accumulating billions in debt to finance their AI infrastructure pivot
• Network hashrate has declined from 1,160 EH/s to roughly 920 EH/s as operations shut down

The economics of Bitcoin mining have turned upside down. A recent CoinShares analysis reveals that publicly traded mining operations spent an average of $79,995 to produce each Bitcoin during the fourth quarter of 2025. With Bitcoin currently valued at approximately $70,000, these companies are hemorrhaging roughly $19,000 for every coin mined.

This crushing financial reality has triggered a dramatic industry transformation. Mining companies are rapidly repurposing their facilities into artificial intelligence and high-performance computing (HPC) infrastructure — and liquidating their Bitcoin reserves to finance the transition.

The scale of this shift is staggering. Public mining entities have collectively announced AI and HPC agreements exceeding $70 billion in value. CoreWeave’s partnership with Core Scientific represents a $10.2 billion commitment spanning 12 years. TeraWulf has locked in $12.8 billion in HPC revenue contracts. Hut 8 executed a $7 billion AI infrastructure lease. Cipher Digital secured a massive agreement with Google-backed Fluidstack worth billions.

Core Scientific is already deriving 39% of total revenue from AI colocation services. TeraWulf generates 27% from this segment. IREN sits at 9% but is expanding aggressively, constructing up to 200 megawatts of liquid-cooled GPU infrastructure.

According to CoinShares Head of Research James Butterfill, publicly listed miners could derive as much as 70% of revenue from AI operations by the close of 2026 — a dramatic increase from today’s 30% figure.

Financing the Infrastructure Transformation

Mining companies are funding this strategic pivot through two primary channels: leveraging debt and liquidating Bitcoin holdings.

IREN now shoulders $3.7 billion in convertible note obligations. TeraWulf carries $5.7 billion in aggregate debt. Cipher Digital issued $1.7 billion in senior secured notes during November, causing quarterly interest expenses to skyrocket from $3.2 million to $33.4 million in Q4 alone.

Simultaneously, public mining companies have collectively offloaded over 15,000 Bitcoin from peak treasury positions. Core Scientific liquidated approximately 1,900 BTC valued at $175 million in January. Bitdeer completely depleted its treasury reserves in February. Riot sold 1,818 BTC worth $162 million during December. Marathon, holding the largest public Bitcoin position at 53,822 BTC, amended its corporate policy in March to permit sales from its entire balance sheet reserve.

The financial incentives strongly favor AI infrastructure. Traditional Bitcoin mining facilities require roughly $700,000 to $1 million per megawatt in capital expenditure. AI data centers demand $8 million to $15 million per megawatt, but generate profit margins exceeding 85% with guaranteed long-term revenue contracts.

Impact on Bitcoin’s Network Security

The mining industry’s strategic realignment is manifesting in observable network metrics. [[LINK_START_2]]Bitcoin’s[[LINK_END_2]] hashrate reached a peak of 1,160 exahashes per second in October 2025. It has subsequently declined to approximately 920 EH/s, marked by three consecutive negative difficulty adjustments — the first such consecutive decline since July 2022.

On March 20, mining difficulty decreased 7.7%, representing one of the most significant single-period reductions recorded this year.

CoinShares forecasts hashrate could potentially recover to 1.8 zetahashes by year-end 2026 — but only under the condition that Bitcoin returns to $100,000 valuations. If prices remain beneath $80,000, the research firm anticipates additional miner capitulation.

Mining companies with secured AI contracts currently command valuations of 12.3 times forward sales. Pure Bitcoin mining operations trade at just 5.9 times. MARA was highlighted as among the few major miners maintaining focus on Bitcoin production and low-cost energy acquisition strategies.

The White House on Friday launched a smartphone app that gives users direct access to administration updates, social posts, photos and policy pages tied to President Donald Trump’s second term. 

The administration said the app would deliver information “straight from the source, no filter” after several teaser videos on official social media accounts pointed to a coming launch.

The White House said the app offers breaking news alerts, live video, a media library and direct feedback tools. In its release, the administration described the product as a way to keep users informed and engaged with the Trump administration through real-time updates and push notifications.

The rollout followed a short teaser campaign on social media that drew public attention before the launch. People reported that one video showed a woman asking whether something was “launching soon,” while a White House spokesperson later replied, “I wonder what’s launching soon!” before the app went live.

The app includes tabs for news, livestreams, social feeds and photo galleries. The Verge reported that much of the content mirrors existing White House web pages rather than adding a separate service built only for the app.

Coverage of the launch also said the app directs users to policy and achievements pages that were already live on the White House website. Daily Voice reported that the product also pulls in curated news coverage and material focused on Trump’s policy priorities and record in office.

A “Get in Touch” option in the social section includes a path for users to submit tips to U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement through the agency’s official form. The same menu also offers options to text the president, contact the White House and sign up for a newsletter.

The app also includes an affordability page built around selected consumer prices. Daily Voice reported that the section uses a limited set of grocery items and leaves out other goods and energy costs that have moved higher, while another border page states that “0 Illegals Released in Past 10 Months.”

Some promised features were not visible at launch

The White House release said users would be able to watch speeches and briefings as they happen. Yet Daily Voice reported that Trump’s Friday remarks to farmers at the White House were not available in real time on the app during the afternoon event.

The launch came as the administration continued to frame rising costs as temporary. Daily Voice reported that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described recent price pressure as “short-term volatility,” while the app itself focused on selected price declines and investment pledges from foreign governments and large companies.

TLDR:

• Coinbase now lets buyers use BTC or USDC as down payment collateral without selling crypto holdings first.
• Better services the crypto loan separately while the main mortgage stays within standard Fannie Mae rules.
• No margin calls apply if borrowers stay current, even during sharp Bitcoin price declines.
• Rising home costs make crypto-backed liquidity a new route for buyers locked out by cash requirements.

Coinbase is moving deeper into consumer finance with a new product that lets U.S. homebuyers use crypto as down payment collateral. 

The company has partnered with Better Home & Finance to offer separate loans backed by Bitcoin or USDC held in Coinbase accounts. The structure allows buyers to keep their digital assets while securing funds for one of the costliest parts of a home purchase. 

The rollout marks one of the clearest attempts yet to connect crypto wealth with the traditional mortgage market.

Coinbase Crypto-Backed Down Payments Enter Housing Finance

A buyer can now borrow against Bitcoin or USDC for a home down payment instead of liquidating holdings. Better will originate and service the loan, while the main mortgage remains separate.

The mortgage itself still follows the standard Fannie Mae-backed structure described in the Reuters report. That means the crypto-backed portion sits alongside, rather than inside, the primary home loan.

According to Reuters, the arrangement aims to preserve crypto exposure for buyers who expect long-term upside. It also allows them to delay taxable sale events tied to liquidating digital assets.

Coinbase said the product keeps the same legal protections as a conventional mortgage process. The company also noted that the mortgage rate itself does not change once the loan becomes active.

Reuters further reported that pledged crypto price swings will not trigger margin calls. As long as borrowers continue payments, falling Bitcoin prices alone will not force liquidation.

Crypto Utility Expands as Homeownership Costs Rise

The launch lands as homeownership remains difficult for first-time buyers. Reuters cited National Association of Realtors data showing the median first-time buyer age has climbed to 40 from 32 in 2000.

Higher rates, limited inventory, and elevated home prices have tightened access across the U.S. housing market. This backdrop gives crypto-rich buyers another way to unlock liquidity without leaving the market.

Coinbase framed the product as a practical use case for digital assets beyond trading and custody. Reuters noted the company sees it as a way to widen access for users whose wealth sits in crypto rather than bank accounts.

The policy backdrop also matters. Reuters linked the move to a more crypto-friendly U.S. regulatory environment that has recently lowered barriers around mainstream financial products.

The report also tied that shift to broader Washington efforts to expand alternative investments, including crypto, into retirement products. That easing has helped firms explore new bridges between digital assets and legacy finance.

Bitcoin (BTC) has shed all its March gains, currently down 1.40% on the monthly chart and 24.6% for the first quarter of 2026. Bitcoin’s longer-term performance aligns with a deep drawdown cycle for BTC, which may extend until the end of 2026 and many analysts expect another 40% drop in price.

This scenario pushes Bitcoin’s recovery into Q2 2027, as a deeper BTC price drop tends to take longer to recover from.

Bitcoin drawdown depth extends the recovery timeline

Ecoinometrics data shows a clear link between the drawdown depth and recovery duration. Each additional 10% decline has historically added about 80 days to the time required to reclaim the prior highs.

At the current 48% drawdown, the full recovery cycle is estimated to be near 300 days from the October peak of $126,000 in 2025. 

Currently, roughly 172 days have passed, leaving about 125 to 130 days if the cycle low is already confirmed at $60,000. However, the cycle lows might not have been tagged yet, with BTC potentially looking at further downside in the coming weeks. 

The Bitcoin Combined Market Index (BCMI), which combines market-value to realized-value (MVRV), net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL), spent output profit ratio (SOPR) and market sentiment, currently sits near 0.27.

This level is notably above the 0.15 threshold that has marked the cycle bottoms in every major downturn since 2018.

In the 2018 cycle, BCMI reached 0.15 as Bitcoin fell to $3,100 from its $20,000 peak. In 2020, the index dropped to 0.147 when the price was $5,100. Similarly, in November 2022, BCMI fell to 0.12 as BTC formed its cycle lows at $15,880.

With the index still elevated relative to these historical bottom zones, a move toward 0.15 in 2026 likely requires further downside in BTC’s price. Such a scenario aligns with a deeper capitulation phase for BTC, consistent with the prior cycle resets.

Related: Bitcoin dips under $66K as oil sparks ‘unsustainable’ US inflation risk

Deeper BTC lows extend the recovery window to Q2 2027

Crypto trader Ardi noted that the whale delta vs retail delta reached its most aggressive sell level at -22.13 since October 2024. The chart illustrates the BTC price breaking below a rising trendline, while underlying flows show consistent distribution from the larger participants. Ardi said,

“Larger players are selling into this structure harder than they have in 18 months. That does not mean price has to collapse immediately. But it does mean this level is being tested with real sell pressure pressing into it.”

From a liquidity standpoint, CMCC Crest managing partner Willy Woo outlined a similar weakness for BTC’s price. Woo accurately mapped out last month that BTC would rebound to the mid-$70,000 region in March, before aligning with the bearish trend as “the broader regime is heavily bearish with both spot and futures liquidity deteriorating.”

From a cycle perspective, Woo expects a deeper reset before a confirmed bottom forms. Woo identified the $40,000–$45,000 range as a typical bear market floor, with timing skewed toward Q4 for the end of the bearish phase.

The framework places the return of a stronger bullish momentum into early 2027.

If Bitcoin extends its decline toward the $40,000–$45,000 range, the drawdown from the $126,000 peak deepens to roughly 64–68% from all-time highs. Based on Ecoinometrics’ model, the additional downside significantly stretches the recovery timeline.

At a 60%+ drawdown, the total recovery period historically expands to around 440 days from the cycle peak. In this scenario, a potential reclaim of the prior all-time high is expected to fall sometime after Q2 2027.

It is important to note that these timelines are based on historical drawdown patterns and do not represent predictions. The current macroeconomic conditions may alter that recovery path as well.

The Kobeissi Letter noted that the rate cuts are now expected only by December 2027, with a 51% chance of a rate hike by March 2027. This unexpected development may impact Bitcoin’s recovery pace relative to past cycles.

Related: Bitcoin gained 655% the last time this supply in profit metric dropped to 50%