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Is a 37% Drop Next?

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Bitcoin Below True Market Mean

Bitcoin has entered a critical phase after its recent correction dragged the price toward the $70,000 level. Viewed through a macro lens, this move has exposed BTC to elevated downside risk. 

Several on-chain and technical indicators now align with a bearish outlook. However, large holders are actively accumulating, attempting to slow or reverse the developing trend.

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Bitcoin Loses A Major On-Chain Support

Bitcoin has dropped below the True Market Mean for the first time since September 2023. This metric reflects the aggregate cost basis of actively circulating supply. Trading below it signals weakening conviction among participants and marks a structural shift in market behavior.

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The loss of this anchor confirms deterioration that has been forming since late November. From a mid-term perspective, Bitcoin is now confined within a broader valuation corridor. Upside momentum has weakened, while downside pressure continues to build across multiple timeframes.

Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.

Bitcoin Below True Market Mean
Bitcoin Below True Market Mean. Source: Glassnode

On the downside, the Realized Price near $55,800 represents the historical level where long-term capital re-enters. On the upside, the True Market Mean of around $80,200 has flipped into resistance. This configuration limits recovery potential and increases the probability of further downside exploration.

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Bitcoin’s Macro Outlook Suggests 37% Crash

This structural weakness aligns with a macro bearish setup visible on the charts. Bitcoin is breaking down from a Head and Shoulders pattern that has been developing for months. This formation carries a projected downside of roughly 37%, targeting $51,511 if fully realized.

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The sharp 20% decline over the past week accelerated this breakdown. Rapid selling pressure confirmed the pattern’s neckline breach, intensifying bearish momentum. Such moves often lead to follow-through declines as trapped long positions unwind.

Bitcoin Prepares For 37% Crash
Bitcoin Prepares For 37% Crash. Source: TradingView

The next critical support below $70,000 sits at $68,072. Losing this level would validate the bearish projection. A decisive break would likely trigger additional liquidations, increasing volatility, and accelerating price movement toward lower structural levels.

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BTC Whales Jump In As Rescue

Despite mounting bearish signals, Bitcoin whales are actively attempting to prevent further downside. Addresses holding between 10,000 and 100,000 BTC have accumulated more than 50,000 BTC in just four days. At current prices, this accumulation exceeds $3.58 billion.

This behavior reflects strategic positioning rather than speculative trading. Large holders often accumulate during periods of fear, especially after sharp corrections. Bitcoin slipping below $75,000 appears to have created an attractive entry zone for long-term capital.

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Bitcoin Whale Accumulation
Bitcoin Whale Accumulation. Source: Santiment

If whale accumulation continues, it could absorb sell-side pressure and stabilize the price. Historically, such activity has preceded short-term rebounds. However, sustained impact depends on broader market sentiment and whether retail selling pressure subsides.

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BTC Price Is Close To Falling Below $70,000

Bitcoin price is trading near $69,500 at the time of writing after a 20% weekly decline. For now, BTC is yet to close a daily candle below $70,000 psychological support. This level has acted as a demand zone in previous corrections, making it critical for near-term stability.

From a short-term perspective, downside risks remain elevated. A breakdown below $68,442 would likely trigger accelerated selling. Under that scenario, Bitcoin could fall toward $65,360. Losing that support may expose BTC to a deeper slide toward $62,893.

Bitcoin Price Analysis.
Bitcoin Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

Alternatively, whale accumulation could influence price direction. A successful defense of $70,000 may allow Bitcoin to rebound toward $75,000. Reclaiming that level as support would invalidate the immediate bearish thesis and reopen the path toward $80,000 if momentum improves.

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Crypto World

Pump.fun moves beyond meme coins with new trading update

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Pump.fun moves beyond meme coins with new trading update

The crypto app Pump.fun is taking a significant step beyond its meme-coin roots, announcing broad new trading support that allows users to buy and sell a wider array of tokens directly within the platform.

Summary

  • Pump.fun now lets users trade a range of assets including WBTC, USDC, Ethereum (via Wormhole), and other launchpad tokens inside the app.
  • The expansion responds to over 1.5M downloads and demand for more diverse on-chain trading without leaving the platform.
  • Earlier in 2026, the platform introduced a Trader Cashback model to redirect fees toward active traders, reshaping its fee structure.

From meme coins to Bitcoin: Pump.fun broadens asset support

Previously known primarily as an on-chain Solana memecoin launchpad and token-creator hub, Pump.fun has exploded in popularity thanks to easy coin generation and speculative trading. Over 1.5 million downloads underscore its rapid adoption, and growing user demand for more trading utility has pushed the company to evolve.

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In a post shared on social platforms, Pump.fun said that for the first time, users can trade not just its native Pump fun coins, but a broader selection of assets, including WBTC, USDC, Ethereum (via Wormhole), and other launchpad tokens.

The update aims to reduce friction for users who previously had to leave the app to access other assets, consolidating trading activity in one interface. This marks a shift from Pump.fun’s early role as a creator-centric ecosystem, where anyone could spin up a token in minutes, toward a more versatile trading environment.

The push toward supporting mainstream crypto alongside meme tokens comes amid broader changes in Pump.fun’s fee and incentive structure. Last month the platform rolled out a “Trader Cashback” model, letting creators choose whether trading fees benefit deployers or active traders, an effort to reward volume and participation more fairly.

While the platform remains known for speculative assets and memecoins, this expansion could attract more serious traders and bolster liquidity, positioning Pump.fun as more than just a meme-token generator.

Whether broader token support alters user behavior or stabilizes markets will be closely watched across the crypto community.

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Bitcoin Rebound Tactical Not Structural Bear Market: Analysts

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Bitcoin Rebound Tactical Not Structural Bear Market: Analysts

Bitcoin’s recent price behavior could indicate that crypto selling pressure has begun to wane — though analysts warn there are not yet signs of a reversal from a bear market.

“Bitcoin failed to accelerate lower on risk-off headlines, a signal that downside pressure may be losing momentum,” said 10x Research in a market update on Tuesday.

The analysts noted that Bitcoin (BTC) was reclaiming the 20-day moving average near $68,500, and Bollinger Bands were tightening, with conditions “forming for potential range expansion.”

BTC returned to just above $70,000 on Coinbase in late trading on Monday but had retreated to $68,400 at the time of writing, according to TradingView. 

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The $62,500 level has held on three separate tests, “reinforcing it as meaningful support,” the analysts said. 

At the same time, “bullish divergences are emerging,” with both RSI [relative strength index] and stochastic indicators trending higher, “early signs that momentum may be stabilizing even within a broader bearish structure.” 

Bitcoin vs. daily stochastics. Source: 10x Research

A tactical shift but no structural reversal 

The analysts concluded that the evidence “points to a meaningful tactical shift, but not yet a confirmed structural turn.”

Volatility is compressing, ETF flows have strengthened, and the Coinbase discount has disappeared, “these are not characteristics of a market accelerating into a fresh leg lower,” they said.

“However, our broader allocation framework still classifies Bitcoin as being in a bear market regime, meaning any bullish exposure remains tactical rather than structural.”

Related: Crypto analyst says Bitcoin selling pressure is nearly exhausted

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Justin d’Anethan, head of research at Arctic Digital, told Cointelegraph on Tuesday that there have been a lot of macro and crypto-native events that have pushed the price down, but lately, “we’ve moved from frantic to somewhat measured,” which bodes well for “a consolidation, accumulation, or at least, a range-bound time.”

“The fact that selling pressure isn’t having that much impact despite tariffs, prospect of a war, or previously disappointing rate cut expectations seems to say that sellers themselves are exhausted or that there are genuine buyers averaging in at these levels.”

Deeply negative funding rates caused a price bounce

Meanwhile, Bitrue research lead Andri Fauzan Adziima told Cointelegraph that Bitcoin’s downside momentum is fading but said it was “primarily due to deeply negative funding rates” on derivatives markets

This has created “overcrowded short positions in perpetual futures and triggered a classic short squeeze as price bounced sharply from $63,000 lows, forcing heavy liquidations and easing selling pressure through tactical relief.”

Negative funding rates mean that short sellers are paying the longs to maintain their positions. 

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He added that no confirmed trend reversal has occurred yet “because structural inflows remain absent, macro catalysts are lacking,” and the broader downtrend from the all-time high “persists with fragile liquidity and resistance ahead.”

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