Crypto World
Is Hyperliquid Losing Ground? On-Chain Data Highlights Rising HFDX Adoption
Some parts of the crypto world think Hyperliquid might be slowing down. That talk comes as new numbers show traders and capital flow shifting toward new DeFi projects like HFDX. On-chain data shows trading patterns and volume trends that hint at real changes in where users spend their time and capital.
Meanwhile crypto prices, news, and expert views shape how people see these projects today. In this piece, we look at Hyperliquid’s recent situation and then contrast it with what HFDX is doing. The goal is to give you a clear snapshot of the current state of play.
Hyperliquid: On-Chain Data, Price Moves and What Experts Say
Hyperliquid’s native token HYPE has had a mixed run lately. Some reports show that HYPE had strong periods of trading and network activity in 2025. At times, its prices climbed after large on-chain liquidity and network upgrades that lowered fees and drew traders to its perpetual markets. On-chain figures show huge trading volumes and growing open interest, which helped push HYPE toward past price highs.
But recent market chatter suggests pressure on the token. Some news points to price slides or sideways trading around current levels, even though earlier in late 2025 it rallied thanks to on-chain liquidity innovations.
Analysts and price prediction models still talk about potential upside for HYPE into future years. Some long-term price outlooks suggest that if adoption and volume remain strong, HYPE could trade significantly higher in the medium term.
Still, not all views are upbeat. Some experts say the market overall remains weak, and the hype around early growth may fade as users look for fresh opportunities. The idea that Hyperliquid is losing ground is tied to how traders react to alternatives and look for new ways to manage capital and risk.
HFDX: On-Chain Futures and Structured Yield Momentum
HFDX is a newer protocol that offers non-custodial perpetual futures trading along with structured yield frameworks based on real protocol revenue. It targets active traders and investors who want precise tools without giving up control of their assets. HFDX runs entirely on-chain, and all actions, whether trades or liquidity participation, happen in smart contracts.
On-chain data shows some traders migrating from legacy decentralized exchanges to HFDX because of its risk-managed liquidity strategies and transparent fee structure. Reports that Bitcoin perpetual traders have been splitting volume between Hyperliquid and HFDX point to a real shift in user priorities. HFDX’s structured approach draws those who want returns tied to actual trading revenue and borrowing fees rather than just speculation.
HFDX’s technical design mixes deep liquidity with risk controls that appeal to DeFi-native users. The liquidity loan note (LLN) strategies let participants put capital into protocol liquidity and receive fixed rates that reflect real activity. This model may attract users seeking a different balance of risk and return.
What HFDX offers:
- On-chain perpetual futures with full user custody
- Trades that clear against shared liquidity pools
- Pricing based on decentralized oracle feeds
- Liquidity Loan Note strategies with fixed terms
- Yield tied to trading fees and borrow costs
- Smart contracts that manage risk rules on-chain
Experts Note A Shifting Landscape
In the short term, Hyperliquid still holds significant on-chain volume and active user counts. Its upgrades and network features helped it achieve strong adoption in earlier phases, and experts continue to discuss its price prospects. Still, recent market signals and trader behavior hints that some of its user base is looking elsewhere.
HFDX’s rise does not mean Hyperliquid is done. It just shows the market is evolving. Traders now split capital, test new products, and choose platforms based on what fits their goals. HFDX’s structured yield options and transparent execution are part of that shift. The next few months will be critical for both protocols as price trends, on-chain metrics, and user choices play out in real time.
Make Your Money Work Smarter And Unlock A Wealth Of Opportunities With HFDX Today!
Website: https://hfdx.xyz/
Telegram: https://t.me/HFDXTrading
Disclaimer: This is a Press Release provided by a third party who is responsible for the content. Please conduct your own research before taking any action based on the content.
Spanish authorities have arrested a suspect in the 2025 kidnapping of Ledger co-founder David Balland, marking a cross-border breakthrough in one of Europe’s most high-profile crypto-linked abduction cases.
Spain’s Civil Guard said the suspect was detained in Benalmádena, in the southern province of Málaga, under a European arrest warrant issued by France. The man is accused of involvement in the abduction and torture of Balland, in which attackers demanded a ransom of 10 million euros (around $11.5 million).
Balland was abducted from his home in central France on Jan. 21, 2025, and was held captive until a police operation secured his release on the night of Jan. 22.
The arrest marks the latest development in the case, which prompted a cross-border investigation by French and Spanish authorities. French authorities had previously identified and arrested other members of the group who attacked Balland, with the remaining suspect allegedly fleeing to Spain to evade capture, the Civil Guard said.
Fugitive moved across Spain before arrest
Investigators tracked the suspect to the province of Valencia, where he was living with his partner and a friend. The group kept a low profile, staying in apartments rented through online platforms and using a third party’s bank card to avoid leaving a trace.
Related: Wrench attacks against crypto holders are rising and growing ‘more violent’
According to the Civil Guard, he later moved through Seville and Cádiz before being located and arrested in the town of Benalmadena,
Authorities added that the arrest, transfer and detention required a large police operation due to the suspect’s dangerousness and the risk that members of the criminal organization he was linked to could attempt to free him.
Crypto-linked attacks targeting individuals in France
The case is one of a broader wave of crypto-linked attacks in France throughout 2025. In June, French authorities charged 25 suspects over a series of kidnappings and attempted kidnappings of crypto executives and investors.
That same month, a crypto user was abducted and held captive in France for several hours, with attackers demanding cash and access to a hardware wallet containing an undisclosed amount of funds.
Earlier in the year, the daughter and grandson of Pierre Noizat, CEO of French crypto exchange Paymium, were targeted in an attempted abduction, but the victims fought back and escaped.
Magazine: Big Questions: Can Bitcoin save you from the dreaded Cantillon Effect?
Solana is handling 100M+ daily transactions and $650B in monthly stablecoin volume while SOL trades below $95, leaving traders to decide if a $100+ rerating is overdue.
Summary
- Solana is processing over 100 million transactions a day and $650 billion in monthly stablecoin volume, outpacing every other major chain.
- Spot SOL ETFs have attracted around $1 billion–$1.5 billion in net inflows despite SOL trading roughly 57% below post‑ETF highs.
- Analysts see a potential breakout if SOL can clear resistance near $92–$100, with ETF flows and derivatives positioning acting as key catalysts.
Solana (SOL) is trading around the low‑$90s after a series of 5–7% daily moves, even as its underlying network posts activity figures normally associated with far richer valuations. Dune Analytics data shared by Solana Payments shows the blockchain processing roughly 105.3 million transactions per day as of February 19, 2026, “more than all other major blockchains combined.” In February alone, Solana handled about 3.4 billion transactions excluding votes, one of its most active months on record. At the same time, research cited by Grayscale shows the network processed about $650 billion in stablecoin transfers in February, more than doubling its previous record and overtaking both Ethereum and Tron in monthly stablecoin volume.
According to a price outlook from crypto.news, SOL spent early March consolidating near $88–$89 with a market cap around $50 billion, “a blue‑chip alt that has forgotten how to trend” after a brutal February drawdown. On March 4, Solana emerged as the standout top‑10 performer with a 6% jump to $91.45 and a market cap near $52 billion, as 24‑hour trading volume surged to $7.5 billion and the volume‑to‑market‑cap ratio climbed to 14.4% from a 30‑day average of 11.2%. Another 5.12% daily advance pushed SOL to about $91.46 as ETF inflows rose and whale wallets staked roughly 200,000 SOL worth over $17 million, reinforcing support in the $84–$86 band.
Behind the price, regulated products are quietly building a structural bid. U.S. spot Solana ETFs are near the $1 billion net‑inflow mark and have attracted about $1.5 billion since launch, even as SOL’s price has fallen roughly 57% from its July 2025 levels, according to Bloomberg data cited by multiple analysts. “Solana ETFs recorded $16.8 million in net inflows on Monday, lifting cumulative inflows to $1.09 billion,” one recent report noted, with the Bitwise Solana Staking ETF alone drawing over $638 million. Crypto.news has reported that around 30 institutions now hold about $540 million in SOL ETF exposure, highlighting how much of this demand is institutional rather than purely retail.
Those flows are increasingly shaping the tape: Bitwise analysis suggests spot ETF flows now account for around 25% of SOL’s price variance, while basis trades remain subdued. Recent derivative market data shows open interest hovering near $5.01 billion, funding rates turning positive and long‑to‑short ratios hitting monthly highs as SOL traded above $89 after a roughly 10% weekly gain. Technical forecasters at crypto.news say a sustained move into the $95–$105 range is possible if buying pressure persists, with upside confirmation coming on a clear break above $100.
The core question for traders is whether SOL’s price can catch up to a chain that already looks like a high‑throughput payments and stablecoin backbone. Network statistics indicate Solana is handling around 150 million transactions per day and supporting roughly $2 trillion in quarterly stablecoin transfers, placing it “at the center of the stablecoin economy” according to recent market research. Grayscale and Standard Chartered analysts argue that the activity shift away from memecoins toward payments and tokenized finance justifies structurally higher valuations, with one 2026 base case targeting $250 per SOL and a bull case extending to $320 if ETF flows and technical upgrades land cleanly.
Yet technical risk remains. Crypto.news analysis notes that SOL still trades in a broad $80–$100 “trap,” with $80 acting as crucial support and $96–$116 marked out as the zone that would “reopen structural recovery” if reclaimed. Bears warn that a confirmed break below $80 could trigger a slide toward $64 or even the $59 head‑and‑shoulders target flagged on multi‑day charts. For now, the market is paying blue‑chip prices for a chain that is already settling hundreds of billions a month in stablecoins—but not yet the full premium implied by its usage. Whether that gap closes via a rerating higher or a normalization of activity will define Solana’s next leg.
Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren has raised concerns about whether YouTuber Jimmy Donaldson, better known as “MrBeast,” intends to market cryptocurrency to teenagers and young adults following his purchase of a mobile banking app.
In a Monday letter to Donaldson, Warren questioned whether the online influencer planned to use his company’s acquisition of the mobile banking app Step to push crypto transactions and purchases on young people. Donaldson, a YouTuber who grew an online following due in part to his stunts and financial giveaways, founded his holding company, Beast Industries, in 2012 with the launch of his channel.
In February, the company acquired Step, with a reported seven million-person user base. At the time, Donaldson said the purchase was aimed at “giv[ing] millions of young people the financial foundation I never had.” An October 2025 trademark application for MrBeast Financial included plans for a mobile app “providing cryptocurrency exchange services.”
With more than 472 million subscribers on YouTube, Donaldson has one of the largest audiences on the video-sharing platform. His holding company, Beast Industries, already has financial ties with the crypto industry following a $200 million investment from BitMine Immersion Technology in January.
Related: MrBeast allegedly reaped $10M promoting and dumping altcoins
Step announced plans for an app that would allow “teens under 18 and young adults to buy, sell, hold and receive crypto” in 2022. However, the notice said that “parents will be able to oversee their teen’s access” for investments.
“Despite Step’s careful claims that crypto investing by minors was only with the permission of a parent or guardian, Step published resources encouraging kids to pressure their parents into crypto investments,” said Warren in the Monday letter, adding:
“Beast Industries is primarily an entertainment and consumer product company – and any foray into financial services, particularly services aimed at children – must be done with great care and in compliance with the law.”
Warren requested information from Donaldson and Beast Industries CEO Jeff Housenbold on Step’s plans to allow its young user base to invest in cryptocurrencies or non-fungible tokens (NFTs) by April 3. Cointelegraph has sought comment from both Beast Industries and Warren’s office, but had not received a response as of the time of publication.
‘Hawk Tuah’ influencer speaks out about memecoin
Another online influencer, Haliey Welch, who became known as the “Hawk Tuah” girl following her appearance in a TikTok video went viral in 2024, has addressed the public for the first time in months after the launch of her memecoin left investors with losses estimated at $200,000. Welch reported receiving death threats after her HAWK memecoin surged to a market capitalization of about $500 million before collapsing by more than 90% in what many speculated was a rug pull.
Magazine: Are DeFi devs liable for the illegal activity of others on their platforms?
TLDR
- Fidelity submitted a formal letter to the SEC seeking clear rules for crypto market infrastructure.
- The firm asked the SEC to define standards for tokenized securities under existing laws.
- Fidelity urged regulators to update reporting requirements for decentralized finance platforms.
- The letter stated that tokenizing a security does not change its legal status.
- Issuer-sponsored tokens provide voting rights, while third-party tokens often offer only price exposure.
Fidelity submitted a formal letter to the SEC outlining demands for clearer crypto market infrastructure rules. The firm called for defined standards on tokenized securities, revised DeFi reporting requirements, and guidance on distributed ledger recordkeeping. The request targets regulatory barriers that limit institutional participation in digital assets.
Fidelity Urges Clear Rules for Tokenized Securities and DeFi
Fidelity asked the SEC to define standards for tokenized securities under existing securities laws. The firm stated that tokenizing an asset changes its format, not its legal status. It added that a security remains a security after it moves onto a blockchain.
However, Fidelity said uncertainty persists over the rights attached to tokenized holdings. Issuer-sponsored tokens link directly to official shareholder registers and grant full voting rights. In contrast, third-party tokens often provide price exposure only and increase counterparty risk.
Fidelity also addressed decentralized finance reporting obligations in its letter. The firm said current financial reporting rules rely on centralized institutions. It urged the SEC to update frameworks because decentralized platforms lack a central reporting authority.
The letter focused on institutional access rather than retail participation. Fidelity said large capital allocators require legal clarity before entering the market. Estimates project up to $5 trillion in institutional capital could be unlocked by 2026 under a clear U.S. framework.
Compliance spending continues to rise under new U.S. and MiCA regimes. Firms now allocate between 20% and 30% of budgets to regulatory and audit requirements. Fidelity researchers also reported that Bitcoin showed limited price movement throughout 2025.
The researchers forecast that traditional money managers could enter crypto markets in 2026. They stated that infrastructure development will determine the pace of that transition. The firm linked regulatory clarity directly to operational readiness.
Market Data Shows Ethereum Leads as Stablecoin Value Reaches $300.79 Billion
Kraken’s parent company, Payward, announced work with Nasdaq to build tokenized stock and ETF infrastructure. Payward also became the first crypto-related firm to access the Federal Reserve payment system. These developments reflect ongoing integration between traditional finance and digital asset platforms.
Major exchanges expanded offerings beyond cryptocurrencies into tokenized equities and commodities. Infrastructure for broader asset exposure continues to expand across networks. As a result, fresh capital entered the market under evolving regulatory frameworks.
Data from RWA.xyz shows U.S. Treasury debt leads tokenized real-world assets at $11.84 billion. Commodities follow at $5.06 billion, and asset-backed credit stands at $3.15 billion. Real estate accounts for $292 million despite frequent projections about growth potential.
Ethereum holds $15.3 billion in distributed real-world asset value across networks. BNB Chain follows with $3.2 billion, while Solana records $1.7 billion. Stellar reports $1.4 billion in distributed value across tokenized assets.
Flow data over the past 30 days shows Ethereum gained $845 million in net inflows. BNB Chain added $808 million, while Solana recorded $398 million in inflows. XRP Ledger lost $68 million, and Liquid Network declined by $156 million.
Stablecoin value across tracked networks totals $300.79 billion, down 2.4% month over month. Meanwhile, the holder count rose to 239.36 million, reflecting a 5.05% increase. The data highlights the current distribution of assets across blockchain networks.
TLDR
- Cliff Asness said crypto currently trades like a risk-on asset rather than a safe haven.
- He cited chart correlations showing Bitcoin moving in line with S&P 500 futures.
- Asness rejected the idea that Bitcoin provides diversification during stock market declines.
- He described Bitcoin as an imaginary asset and questioned extreme valuation claims.
- Asness criticized the concept of Bitcoin yield promoted by Michael Saylor.
Cliff Asness rejected claims that cryptocurrencies function as digital gold or safe havens. He said recent market data shows crypto moving with equities. The AQR Capital Management founder argued that Bitcoin price trades like a risk asset.
Asness addressed market behavior and challenged claims that Bitcoin protects against equity downturns. He cited chart correlations between Bitcoin and S&P 500 futures during recent selloffs. He said the data shows crypto falling when stocks decline.
Crypto Acts Like a Risk-On Asset, Says Asness
Asness stated that crypto acts like a risk asset in current conditions. He said, “Crypto does not look like a store of value.” He added that it looks like “risk on” during recent trading sessions.
He pointed to chart correlations between Bitcoin and S&P 500 futures. He said both assets moved in the same direction during market stress. Therefore, he rejected the claim that Bitcoin offers diversification benefits.
He explained that crypto has not behaved like gold during volatility. He said the data shows joint declines during equity pullbacks. He maintained that current patterns contradict the haven narrative.
Asness also dismissed claims that Bitcoin drives broader equity markets. He described Bitcoin as another volatile asset class. He said maximalist arguments overstate its market influence.
Asness Targets Bitcoin Yield and MicroStrategy Premium
Asness criticized the concept of “Bitcoin yield” promoted by Michael Saylor. He argued that the metric does not represent actual yield or total return. He said the term misleads investors about performance.
He mocked the phrase in blunt terms. He said, “Every time someone says Bitcoin yield, an angel gets their wings violently ripped off.” He used the remark to underline his rejection of the metric.
Asness directed sharper criticism at MicroStrategy’s corporate strategy. He said the company trades at a large premium to its Bitcoin holdings. He described the structure as similar to a 2x net asset value closed-end fund.
He argued that this pricing reflects weak market efficiency. He called the structure “moronic” in public comments. He maintained that the premium lacks fundamental justification.
Asness reiterated that he views Bitcoin as an “imaginary asset.” He questioned how a digital currency could equal the value of global assets. He rejected projections that place Bitcoin at aggregate world asset levels.
Marc Rowan, chief executive officer of Apollo Global Management LLC, during a Bloomberg Television interview in New York, US, on Tuesday, Dec. 5, 2023.
Jeenah Moon | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Apollo, the asset management giant, told investors in its flagship private credit fund that it will limit withdrawals this quarter to just under half of requests, the latest sign of stress in the asset class.
In a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission late Monday, Apollo Debt Solutions BDC said that it received redemption requests equal to 11.2% of shares outstanding in the first quarter, far exceeding the 5% quarterly cap the fund allows.
Unlike some other private credit players, Apollo is sticking with the 5% cap, an industry standard that rivals including Blackstone have recently relaxed to satisfy investor demands for their funds.
The vehicle — a non-traded business development company, or BDC — expects to return about $730 million to investors on a prorated basis, meaning redeeming shareholders will receive roughly 45% of the capital they requested. The fund has a net asset value of $15.1 billion, as of Feb. 28.
“Today’s decision reflects our ongoing commitment to long-term value creation for the Fund’s shareholders,” Apollo said. “As long-term stewards of capital, we have a fiduciary duty to act in the best interests of all Fund investors, balancing the interests of shareholders seeking liquidity with those who choose to remain invested.”
Apollo said the fund’s net asset value per share declined 1.2% over the past three months through Feb. 28, but outperformed the U.S. Leveraged Loan Index, which fell 2.2% over the same period.
The withdrawals show that Apollo didn’t avoid the rush of investor redemptions plaguing rivals, driven by concern over private credit loans to software companies. Apollo executives have sought to distance themselves from other players recently, saying the firm typically made loans to larger, more stable companies.
Software is the single biggest sector at 12.3% of loans in the Apollo Debt Solutions BDC, according to the company.
The prediction market is updating insider trading and manipulation rules days after inking an exclusive partnership with Major League Baseball.
Polymarket on Monday announced updated market integrity rules across both its DeFi platform and its CFTC-regulated U.S. exchange, amplifying requirements governing insider trading and market manipulation. The new standards appear in the DeFi platform’s Terms of Use and the Polymarket US Rulebook.
“Markets thrive on clarity,” said Neal Kumar, Polymarket’s chief legal officer, in a release.
Prohibited Behavior
The rules spell out three categories of banned insider trading conduct. First, participants may not trade on any contract if they possess confidential information about the outcome of the underlying event, where using that information would violate a preexisting duty of trust or confidence.
Second, participants may not trade on confidential information passed to them by someone who owed a preexisting duty of trust or confidence to someone else, if they know or have reason to know that the tipper would be prohibited from trading on it themselves.
Third, participants may not trade on any contract if they hold a position of authority or influence sufficient to affect the outcome of the underlying event.
Beyond insider trading, both platforms prohibit all types of fraud and market manipulation — including spoofing, wash trading, and fictitious transactions — as well as self-dealing, front-running, information misuse, attempted manipulation, and disruptive practices.
Enforcement
On the DeFi side, Polymarket maintains a multi-layered monitoring system and partners with surveillance and technology specialists, and all trades are executed on the Polygon blockchain, providing built-in on-chain transparency. When the platform or community flags unusual activity, Polymarket said it may ban wallet addresses or refer the matter to law enforcement.
On Polymarket US, surveillance operates at three levels: partnerships with trade surveillance specialists, a control desk conducting real-time monitoring, and a Regulatory Services Agreement with the National Futures Association to detect rule violations and investigate offenders. Sanctions on the U.S. exchange can include suspension, termination, monetary penalties, or regulatory referrals.
The rule overhaul follows last week’s announcement that MLB named Polymarket its official and exclusive prediction market exchange. The deal centers on an integrity framework that restricts markets deemed to pose manipulation risk, including contracts on individual pitches, manager decisions, and umpire performance. MLB also signed an information-sharing agreement with the CFTC, the first such deal between the derivatives regulator and a professional sports body.
Polymarket received CFTC approval to operate in the U.S. in November 2025, following a $2 billion strategic investment from Intercontinental Exchange. The platform has since begun rolling out its U.S. app, starting with sports markets.
This article was written with the assistance of AI workflows. All our stories are curated, edited and fact-checked by a human.
TLDR:
- TRON DAO has expanded its AI Fund tenfold, growing from $100 million to a full $1 billion commitment.
- The fund targets agent identity systems, stablecoin payment rails, and tokenized equity as core investment areas.
- TRON’s network processes over $21 billion daily and holds $85 billion in USDT, supporting agent-scale payments.
- Tokenized equity is positioned as the ownership layer for AI agents managing economic interests on behalf of users.
TRON DAO has expanded its AI Fund from $100 million to $1 billion. The fund targets early-stage companies building infrastructure for the agentic economy.
It focuses on agent identity systems, stablecoin payment rails, tokenized assets, and developer tooling. This move builds on a thesis formed in 2023, when TRON predicted AI and blockchain would converge.
TRON Doubles Down on AI and Blockchain Convergence
The TRON AI Fund first launched with a clear conviction: AI and blockchain technology would eventually merge. That prediction has gained enough traction to justify a tenfold increase in committed capital.
The fund now positions itself as a strategic vehicle, not just a financial one. Its expanded mandate reflects growing market demand for autonomous financial infrastructure.
Three core theses continue to drive the fund’s investment direction. As TRON stated, “AI agents will become active participants in the global economy, requiring new financial infrastructures that combine identity, payment, and asset ownership fully onchain.”
This makes stablecoins the most practical payment layer for agent-to-agent commerce today. The fund views this as foundational, rather than experimental, infrastructure.
Stablecoins also serve individuals and small teams augmented by AI tools. A single person running AI-powered operations no longer needs a large team behind them.
However, they still need payment systems that are simple, low-cost, and accessible. Traditional banking onboarding and intermediary fees make that difficult to achieve.
TRON noted that “AI-augmented people can run what once required entire teams from a single laptop.” That shift changes the demand for financial tools entirely.
Tokenized equity rounds out the fund’s framework as the ownership layer for this new economy. It is divisible, programmable, and transferable around the clock, supporting autonomous asset management.
TRON’s Network Scale Positions It for Agent-to-Agent Settlement
TRON’s blockchain currently supports over 370 million user accounts across its network. Daily transaction volume on the chain exceeds $21 billion, demonstrating its capacity at scale.
The network also holds more than $85 billion in circulating USDT supply. These numbers place TRON among the largest stablecoin liquidity sources in the blockchain space.
TRON described agent-to-agent payments as systems expected to “rely on infrastructure that is already proven at scale.” Its network meets that standard through its user base, liquidity depth, and transaction throughput.
The fund intends to extend this infrastructure further into settlement and custody for tokenized assets. That expansion aligns with the broader goal of supporting autonomous financial systems.
The fund will also pursue acquisitions alongside traditional investments. Early-stage companies building core agentic tools are the primary target.
Consolidation in this space is expected as the sector matures. TRON sees this as an opportunity to shape the foundational layer of the agentic economy.
As AI agents take on more economic roles, demand for on-chain financial rails will grow steadily. TRON’s expanded fund positions it to meet that demand directly and at scale.
Key takeaways:
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Bearish Bitcoin futures premiums and low call option odds suggest traders remain skeptical despite BTC’s brief 4% relief rally.
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High oil prices and cautious Fed policy continue to pressure risk assets, while Bitcoin derivatives metrics signal a lack of conviction.
Bitcoin (BTC) surged 4% within minutes of US President Donald Trump announcing his intention to temporarily de-escalate the conflict in Iran and pursue negotiations. While oil prices immediately tumbled 14% to $85 per WTI barrel and the S&P 500 climbed 3%, Bitcoin derivatives metrics continued to signal skepticism and a lack of confidence in the $68,000 support level.
Bitcoin futures traded at a 2% annualized premium relative to regular spot markets on Monday, indicating a lack of demand for bullish leverage. Under neutral conditions, this indicator typically ranges between 4% and 8% to compensate for the longer settlement period. This lack of conviction from bulls has been the norm for the past month, even during a recent rally toward $76,000 on Tuesday.
Short-term gains fail to offset five months of Bitcoin pain
Short-term positive updates regarding the US and Israel-Iran war are unlikely to reverse the pessimism following a five-month price decline. Because the specific causes of Bitcoin’s Oct. 10, 2025, flash crash and its subsequent failure to track traditional markets remain unconfirmed, traders treat any developments with high suspicion.
This major sell-off occurred alongside rising US import tariffs, including a 100% levy on Chinese goods after China restricted rare earth metal exports. However, the unprecedented $19 billion in liquidations caused the most significant damage, resulting in heavy losses for market makers and traders who utilized cross-margin positions.
At the Deribit exchange, the $80,000 Bitcoin call option for April 24 traded at 0.017 BTC ($1,207). With 31 days until expiry and an implied volatility of 48%, the market is pricing in only a 20% chance of Bitcoin reaching $80,000. This low expectation for a 13% monthly gain is rare in cryptocurrency markets, where participants are generally more optimistic.
USD stablecoins traded at a 1.3% premium against the official US dollar to yuan exchange rate on Monday, indicating that there is not a particular imbalance between buying and selling demand in the region. Typically, high demand for cryptocurrency pushes this premium above the 1.5% neutral range, while panic selling causes stablecoins to trade at a discount.
Federal Reserve’s choice to pause rate cuts keeps investors in fixed-income
The data shows that there is modest resilience in Bitcoin derivative markets, especially since BTC retested the $67,500 level on Monday. Gold’s historic 21% price drop over ten days proved that no asset class is safe when traders fear an economic recession and inflationary risks, especially as fuel prices impact logistics and nearly every sector of the US economy.
Related: Bitcoin spot volumes fall to 2023 lows as BTC rallies remain news-led
Monday’s 3% relief bounce in the S&P 500 is unlikely to cause investors to exit fixed-income positions, especially as the Fed gave little indication of continuing its monetary easing policy. High interest rates reduce incentives for consumer financing and create a burden for corporate capital costs.
There is undoubtedly a significant dependence on the duration of the war for risk assets, including Bitcoin. Until oil prices revert back to $75 or lower, odds are traders will act cautiously, but additional catalysts may need to emerge for Bitcoin traders to turn bullish, especially considering the persistent lack of conviction in onchain and derivatives metrics.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
The House Financial Services Committee meets Wednesday to decide the future of Wall Street’s backend. Lawmakers will question executives from Nasdaq, DTCC, and the Blockchain Association on how to move trillions in securities onto blockchain rails.
The hearing marks a critical pivot from “crypto as casino” to “crypto as infrastructure.”
Chair French Hill (AR-02) convenes the session at 10:00 AM ET in the Rayburn House Office Building. The focus is specific: determining if current securities laws are strangling the efficiency of tokenized assets.
The committee is looking for a way to let regulated firms use blockchain records without triggering an SEC enforcement action. The testimony delivered here will shape the bipartisan legislation expected later this spring.
- Legislative Scope: The hearing reviews two draft bills: one mandating a joint SEC-CFTC study on tokenized products, and another allowing regulated firms to maintain blockchain-based records.
- Institutional Weight: Witnesses include top brass from Nasdaq, DTCC, and SIFMA, signaling that traditional finance—not just crypto natives—is driving the pressure for regulatory clarity.
- Market Impact: Successful legislation would greenlight pilot programs for tokenized stocks and bonds, moving Real World Assets (RWAs) from experimental sandboxes to institutional balance sheets.
Tokenization and the Future of Securities: What the Hearing Covers
The hearing has a name: “Tokenization and the Future of Securities: Modernizing Our Capital Markets.”
The witness list means business. Kenneth Bentsen Jr. of SIFMA, Summer Mersinger of the Blockchain Association, Christian Sabella of the DTCC, and John Zecca of Nasdaq. The architects of traditional market plumbing and the builders of new rails, sitting at the same table.
Two draft bills are on the agenda. The Modernizing Markets Through Tokenization Act forces the SEC and CFTC to stop fighting over jurisdiction and conduct a joint study on tokenized derivatives. The Capital Markets Technology Modernization Act goes further, codifying the ability of broker-dealers to use blockchain for record-keeping.
This comes one week after the SEC and CFTC signed a coordination pact. Regulators are aligning just as Congress moves to open the field.
The signal flare for Real World Assets is lit.
Projects have been stuck in pilot phases for one reason: legal settlement finality on a blockchain is still a gray area. Advance the Modernization Act and banks get the legal cover they need to scale tokenized treasuries and bonds. Institutional appetite is already there. Tokenized securities are the logical next step.
Compliance is where it gets messy. The SEC says tokenized assets are securities first, technology second. The industry says applying 1940s paper-based rules to instantaneous ledger settlements makes no sense. That fight is front and center Wednesday.
The stablecoin angle is indirect but impossible to ignore. Tokenized securities need a cash leg for settlement. That means a wholesale CBDC or a regulated stablecoin. Push hard enough on on-chain securities and stablecoin legislation gets dragged along with it.
One bill pulls the other.
What to Watch When the Hearing Opens
Watch Chair French Hill’s line of questioning.
If he pushes witnesses on specific bottlenecks in SEC Rule 15c3-3, the Committee is ready to legislate now. Vague questions about innovation mean they are not.
The interaction between the Blockchain Association’s Summer Mersinger and traditional finance witnesses matters just as much. A united front between Web3 advocates and SIFMA and Nasdaq puts real pressure on the SEC. If they split, with TradFi pushing private permissioned chains while crypto advocates want public mainnets, the regulatory path fractures. The DTCC’s testimony is the wildcard. They control the current settlement layer. If they validate blockchain’s efficiency, the argument is effectively over.
Timeline is everything. A successful hearing sets up a markup by late April. No consensus pushes real change into late 2026, while Singapore and the UK keep moving.
The infrastructure is ready. The banks are ready. Wednesday decides if regulation gets out of the way.
Discover: The best new crypto in the world
The post What to Expect From This Week’s House Committee Hearing on Tokenization appeared first on Cryptonews.
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