Is the M&A Boom Real? BCG Says Yes at the Top, Not Below $1 Billion

Global mergers and acquisitions (M&A) value ran 11% above its 10-year average in the first eight months of 2026, according to Boston Consulting Group (BCG).

The gains sit almost entirely at the top of the market. Deal volumes below $1 billion remain under longer-term norms.

Megadeals Clear a Record Set in 2021

Aggregate deal value rose 15% year over year through August, BCG said. Deal value reached $2.09 trillion between January and August, up from $1.82 trillion a year earlier. 

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Transactions worth $10 billion or more climbed to 37, up from 24 a year earlier. That count cleared the 32 megadeals announced over the same period in 2021.

Total deal value has not caught up, however. The 2021 figure reached $2.91 trillion across those eight months, leaving 2026 about 28% lower despite the higher megadeal count.

Meanwhile, 27 of this year’s megadeals involved a US buyer, a US target, or both. Deals between $250 million and $1 billion stayed below average. Transactions under $250 million did too, and those counts exclude inflation.

“Deal volumes in these segments remain below their longer-term averages, indicating that the global M&A market has not yet regained normal levels of breadth,” the report read.

The split matches what consulting firm PwC flagged in June, when it projected global M&A deal value would approach $4 trillion this year while deal counts fell 13%.

Region and sector tell the same story of concentration. North America accounted for more than half of the aggregate deal value. European value rose 43% to $541 billion, while Asia-Pacific activity fell 27%.

BCG global M&A leader Jens Kengelbach pointed to execution, rather than funding, as the current constraint.

“Capital and strategic appetite are available. The bottleneck has shifted to execution: finding transaction-ready assets, bridging valuation gaps, and clearing the operational and regulatory hurdles required to close,” he said.

AI Pushes Some Deals Forward and Freezes Others

The report also examined how artificial intelligence (AI) is shaping the M&A market. Daniel Friedman, BCG’s global leader of transactions and integrations, said AI works on the market in two directions at once.

“It’s a reason to do more deals and a reason some deals are harder to close. The companies that get furthest ahead are likely to be the ones that have actually worked out which is true for the asset in front of them,” he stated.

BCG cites a software valuation correction and a private equity pullback as evidence of the second effect. Its M&A Sentiment Index, which blends market fundamentals with AI-based analysis of corporate communications, rose to 83 from 79 at the start of the year, still well under the long-run average of 100.

Sector readings diverged sharply. Financial institutions and real estate scored 108, and health care reached 100, while technology came in lowest at 52 and consumer at 64.

Crypto dealmaking has taken the same shape. Disclosed crypto M&A deal value set a record $9.66 billion in the first half of 2026, even as announced deals fell 25% to 87.

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