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Is XRP Price at Risk as Profit Taking Hits Monthly High?

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XRP Supply Distribution

XRP price continues to trade under a prolonged downtrend that has limited sustained upside for months. The altcoin has repeatedly failed to reclaim key resistance levels. While short-term sentiment shows mild improvement, the broader macro structure remains tilted toward caution.

Recent on-chain developments introduce a complex dynamic. Whale accumulation suggests confidence in a rebound. At the same time, profit-taking activity and weakening network growth highlight structural risks that could cap recovery attempts.

XRP Whales Are Buying

Large XRP holders appear committed to accumulation despite challenging market conditions. Throughout February, addresses holding more than 100,000 XRP increased their collective ownership. These wallets now control 83.7% of the total XRP supply.

This concentration indicates strong conviction among high-capital participants. Whales often accumulate during consolidation phases to position for future upside. Their buying suggests expectations of price recovery rather than imminent distribution. Sustained accumulation can reduce circulating supply and stabilize volatility.

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XRP Supply Distribution
XRP Supply Distribution. Source: Glassnode

Bearish Signals Appear

However, early signs of profit-taking are emerging on-chain. The network realized a profit and loss metric surged to $207 million over the past 24 hours. This marks the first significant wave of profit booking in nearly a month.

While moderate profit realization is healthy for market structure, accelerated selling could undermine bullish setups. If short-term gains motivate broader distribution, XRP’s recovery may stall. Monitoring realized profit trends will be critical for assessing sustained upside potential.

XRP Network Realized Profit/Loss
XRP Network Realized Profit/Loss. Source: Santiment

New address momentum paints a more cautious macro picture. This indicator compares monthly (red) new address growth against yearly (blue) trends. When monthly growth falls below yearly averages, it signals contraction in network activity.

Since early December 2025, XRP’s monthly new address growth has remained below yearly levels. This divergence reflects declining on-chain engagement and reduced network utilization. Weak onboarding often correlates with slower capital inflows.

XRP New Addresses Momentum
XRP New Addresses Momentum. Source: Glassnode

Persistent contraction limits organic demand. Without consistent expansion in active addresses, price recovery becomes dependent on existing holders rather than new participants. Historical data show that prolonged divergence can suppress rallies until growth normalizes.

Reversal of this trend would signal improving fundamentals. A rise in monthly new addresses above yearly averages would indicate renewed adoption. Until that shift occurs, macro fundamentals remain fragile despite whale optimism.

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XRP Price Downtrend Persists

XRP is trading at $1.34 at the time of writing, hovering directly above critical support at the same level. The altcoin remains capped below $1.47 resistance. A descending trendline active since early 2026 continues to restrict upward movement.

If bearish momentum strengthens, XRP could lose the $1.34 support. Combined with increasing profit-taking, such a breakdown may push the price toward $1.28. Further weakness could extend losses to $1.21, reinforcing the prevailing downtrend structure.

XRP Price Analysis.
XRP Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

Conversely, stabilization in realized profits would support consolidation above $1.34. Holding this level may weaken the descending resistance line. A decisive breakout above $1.47 would invalidate the bearish thesis. Sustained momentum could then propel XRP toward $1.58, marking a structural shift in market sentiment.

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Crypto World

Bitcoin Holds $66,000 as Market Braces for March Rebound

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Crypto Breaking News

Key Takeaways

  • Tom Lee sees March rebound for crypto and US stocks
  • Bitcoin trades at $66K despite Middle East tension
  • Ethereum holds near $1,950 as BitMine keeps buying
  • Oil jumps 13% while US futures slip lower
  • Lee links gold strength to broader market shift

Bitcoin trades at $66,000 after rebounding from weekend lows near $63,000. The asset has gained over 5% from its recent dip. Tom Lee expects a broader market recovery in March despite geopolitical pressure.

He shared his outlook during a recent CNBC interview. Lee stated that March could mark a turnaround month for risk assets. He added that economic growth remains intact despite current fears.

Tensions in the Middle East triggered sharp weekend volatility. Military strikes targeting Iran’s Supreme Leader sparked retaliatory action. Consequently, markets reacted with swift liquidations and price swings.

Data shows that long liquidations reached nearly $300 million. However, the broader market absorbed the shock without extended panic. Therefore, Bitcoin stabilized quickly above key support levels.

Meanwhile, oil prices jumped 13% to $82 per barrel. This level marks the highest price since July 2024. Rising energy costs added pressure to global equity markets.

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US equity index futures declined following the developments. The S&P 500 futures fell 1%, while Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 1.5%. Even so, Lee believes the worst selling could occur this week.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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Why is the crypto market going up today? (March 2)

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Top gainers in the crypto market

The crypto market is going up today, March 2, even as the geopolitical crisis in the Middle East escalated.

Summary

  • The crypto market remained stable on Monday even as the war in Iran started.
  • This rally happened as the economic impact of the crisis remained limited.
  • The crypto recovery could be a dead-cat bounce, a situation where a falling asset rebounds temporarily.

Bitcoin (BTC) rose to nearly $70,000, while Ethereum (ETH) jumped to $2,065. Other top gainers were coins like Near Protocol, Morpho, Virtuals Protocol, Jupiter, and Pudgy Penguins. The market capitalization of all coins jumped to over $2.38 trillion.

Top gainers in the crypto market
Top gainers in the crypto market | Source: CoinMarketCap

The crypto market rose as the economic impact of the ongoing war in the Middle East remained muted. For example, the Dow Jones Index retreated by just 140 points, while the Nasdaq 100 erased earlier losses and turned positive for the day.

Crude oil price gains were also lower than expected, with Brent settling at $78 and the West Texas Intermediate rising to $73. The two benchmarks were expected to rise to over $100 as the war started.

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A likely reason for the crypto market rally is the inverse of buying the rumors and selling the news. In this case, investors dumped Bitcoin and other coins ahead of the war, and are now buying the news.

At the same time, the crypto market is going up as traders predict that the United States, Iran, and Israel will reach a ceasefire in the near term. Odds of a ceasefire happening by March 31st rose to 46%. Similarly, the odds of it happening by April 30 rose to 66%.

The crypto market is going up after the relatively strong US macro data. According to S&P Global, the manufacturing PMI rose from 50.4 in January to 51 in February. Another report by ISM showed that the manufacturing PMI rose from 51.7 to 52.4 in the same period.

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Meanwhile, Michael Saylor’s Strategy and Tom Lee’s BitMine continued accumulating Bitcoin and Ethereum last week. BitMine accumulated over 50k ETH, while Strategy bought over 3,000 Bitcoin. These purchases have continued even as these companies have experienced billions in losses. 

Still, there is also a likelihood that the ongoing crypto market rally is a dead-cat bounce. A DCB is a situation where a falling asset rebounds briefly and then resumes the downtrend.

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Are Investors Giving Up on BTC?

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Are Investors Giving Up on BTC?

Key takeaways:

  • Bitcoin futures demand has hit its lowest level since 2024, signaling that many institutional traders are staying cautious.

  • Despite lower confidence from bulls, high CME open interest suggests that major institutions have not left the market.

Bitcoin (BTC) price has gained 10% since retesting $63,000 on Saturday, providing a glimpse of hope for bulls as stock markets moved in a different direction amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. However, demand for Bitcoin futures has been declining, with open interest reaching its lowest levels since 2024. This trend is causing traders to fear that institutional investors are leaving the market.

BTC futures aggregate open interest, USD. Source: CoinGlass

The Bitcoin futures aggregate open interest on major exchanges declined to $32 billion on Sunday, down 20% from one month prior. Even if measured in Bitcoin terms to adjust for the recent price decline, the current demand for BTC futures stood at the lowest level since August 2024 at 491,300 BTC. Part of this decline can be explained by the forced liquidations of bulls who were caught by surprise.

The demand for leveraged bullish positions has been largely absent since the $126,200 all-time high in October 2025.

BTC two-month futures annualized premium. Source: Laevitas.ch

The annualized premium (basis rate) on Bitcoin monthly futures contracts dropped to its lowest level in a year at 2%. Under neutral conditions, the metric should range from 5% to 10% to compensate for the longer settlement period. Even more concerning is the fact that the basis rate has failed to sustain bullish levels for the past 12 months, a period that happens to include a 50% rally April to May 2025.

Bitcoin’s underperformance relative to gold and the stock market has likely shifted investors’ attention away from the cryptocurrency market. Still, it would be far-fetched to claim that institutional investors have exited the market, given that spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) trade over $3 billion per day on average. Among the ETF holders are some of the world’s largest mutual and pension fund managers.

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Moreover, there are over $79 billion in Bitcoin held onchain by publicly listed companies, including Strategy (MSTR US), MARA Holdings (MARA US), XXI (XXI US) and Metaplanet (MPLTF US). Countries such as Bhutan, El Salvador and the United Arab Emirates have also added Bitcoin exposure. One could argue that there is still a long way to go in terms of institutional adoption, but the present situation is very far from zero.

Bitcoin derivatives signal resilience as bulls hesitate

The Bitcoin options market confirms that derivatives continue to function as expected despite repeated failures to reclaim the $72,000 level.

BTC options put-to-call premiums at Deribit. Source: Laevitas.ch

The Bitcoin put-to-call options premium stayed near 0.7 on Monday. This shows that demand for put (sell) options is lower than for call (buy) options. A brief jump in demand for bearish strategies on Friday did not last. Essentially, the options market shows no signs of major trouble or lasting stress from the past few months.

Related: Bitcoin holders show ‘zero panic’ as BTC hits $70K amid Middle East tensions

Derivatives data also shows a lack of confidence among bulls, especially since Bitcoin is trading 45% below its all-time high. However, there is no evidence that institutional players have left the market. The $7.5 billion in Bitcoin futures open interest on the CME is a clear sign of institutional activity. Despite the selling pressure, every short (sell) order must be matched by a long (buy) order, which keeps the market balanced.

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Eventually, fear and uncertainty fade as more buyers return, marking the end of a downward trend. While it is unclear if $60,000 was the absolute bottom for this market cycle, Bitcoin has again shown it is a secure asset with a fixed supply. The $1.4 trillion cryptocurrency market has proven its strength and shows no signs of failing.