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Is XRP’s Capitulation Ending? These Signals Hint At Price Rebound

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XRP NUPL.

XRP price has struggled to mount a decisive recovery in recent weeks, yet it continues to defend a critical support level. The altcoin has avoided a deeper breakdown despite repeated tests of lower price zones. This resilience suggests underlying accumulation.

Investor sentiment initially leaned cautiously. However, from spot markets to derivatives, traders appear to be preparing for a potential rebound.

XRP Is Not Too Deep Underwater

Net Unrealized Profit and Loss, or NUPL, indicates XRP is in a capitulation phase but not deeply so. The metric is currently hovering around the zero line. This position reflects that losses among holders are declining, nearing neutral conditions rather than extreme loss realization.

Historically, XRP has remained in the capitulation zone for extended periods, sometimes lasting up to a month. These phases often precede rebounds once selling pressure exhausts. The current stretch is nearing the one-month mark, suggesting a potential inflection point may be approaching.

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XRP NUPL.
XRP NUPL. Source: Glassnode

How Are XRP Traders and Holders Reacting?

Mean Coin Age, or MCA, offers additional insight into holder behavior. Ahead of a potential bounce, XRP long-term holders appear to favor accumulation over distribution. Rising MCA values typically indicate coins are aging in wallets rather than being spent or sold.

Aside from a minor dip, XRP long-term holders have maintained a constructive stance. Continued accumulation reduces circulating supply pressure. Sustained conviction among these investors often supports structural price recovery over time.

XRP MCA
XRP MCA. Source: Santiment

Derivatives market data mirrors developments in spot trading. XRP Funding rates have shifted meaningfully over the past three weeks. Previously deeply negative readings have transitioned to modestly positive territory.

A positive funding rate reflects the dominance of long positions over short positions. This dynamic signals improving trader confidence. Increased long exposure can generate upward pressure as demand strengthens through leveraged positioning.

XRP Funding Rate.
XRP Funding Rate. Source: Coinglass

XRP Price Holds Above Support Floor

XRP is trading at $1.43 at the time of writing, hovering near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. The 23.6% retracement, often viewed as a bear market support floor, remains intact. Sustained trading above this threshold reinforces structural stability.

Holding above the bear market support floor suggests limited immediate bearish pressure. If improving sentiment persists, XRP could challenge the $1.53 resistance level. A successful breakout may push the token toward $1.62. Flipping the 61.8% Fibonacci level into support would confirm a recovery phase.

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XRP Price Analysis
XRP Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

Conversely, weaker macro conditions could delay upside progress. Failure to clear $1.53 may extend consolidation. Continued range-bound trading would invalidate the short-term bullish thesis. Without stronger demand, XRP may remain subdued until broader crypto market momentum improves.

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BTQ Technologies Launches BIP 360 Testnet, Pushing Bitcoin Toward Quantum-Proof Security

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Brian Armstrong's Bold Prediction: AI Agents Will Soon Dominate Global Financial

TLDR:

  • BTQ Technologies launched testnet v0.3 of Bitcoin Quantum, marking the first live implementation of BIP 360.
  • BIP 360 introduces Pay-to-Merkle-Root outputs that hide public keys, reducing exposure to future quantum attacks.
  • Bitcoin’s current ECDSA encryption could be broken by a sufficiently powerful quantum computer targeting private keys.
  • Moving BIP 360 to Bitcoin’s mainnet requires a community-approved soft fork, with no confirmed timeline yet in place.

Bitcoin quantum resistance has taken a notable step forward as BTQ Technologies launched testnet v0.3 of Bitcoin Quantum.

This release marks the first live implementation of BIP 360, a proposed quantum-proof upgrade built for the Bitcoin network.

The testnet is now live and operational, moving the project firmly from concept to running code. Still, reaching Bitcoin’s mainnet will require a soft fork and the full support of the broader community.

How BIP 360 Addresses the Quantum Computing Threat

Bitcoin currently relies on elliptic curve cryptography, known as ECDSA, to protect wallets. This method has secured the network reliably for more than 15 years without a major breach.

It works much like a deadbolt lock on a front door — effective today, but not designed for quantum-era threats.

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The concern, however, lies in quantum computing. A powerful enough quantum computer could reverse-engineer a private key directly from a public key.

That outcome would expose wallets across the entire Bitcoin network to theft. The risk is real, even if the technology to exploit it does not yet exist.

Crypto media outlet Milk Road addressed this risk in a social media post. It described quantum computers as a future lockpick, not yet built, but known to be in development.

The threat is widely acknowledged across the crypto industry. However, no quantum machine capable of breaking Bitcoin’s encryption is currently operational.

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BIP 360 proposes to fix this gap by introducing Pay-to-Merkle-Root, or P2MR, transaction outputs. These outputs hide the public key from public view. This reduces the attack surface for any future quantum-based intrusion.

The proposal also sets the stage for quantum-resistant signature schemes, including Dilithium.

BTQ Technologies Testnet and the Road to Bitcoin Mainnet

BTQ Technologies moved past theory by launching a live testnet for BIP 360. The v0.3 release is described as the first of its kind for this proposed protocol upgrade.

It runs functional code in a real testing environment, not a simulation. This step signals that the project has moved well beyond the whitepaper stage.

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Moving BIP 360 from testnet to mainnet, however, requires a Bitcoin soft fork. A soft fork is a backward-compatible protocol change that the broader Bitcoin network must approve. Miners, developers, and node operators all need to reach agreement before the change takes effect.

Bitcoin governance has historically been a careful and time-consuming process. Protocol changes require extensive peer review and community debate before adoption. As a result, there is currently no confirmed timeline for BIP 360 to go live on mainnet.

Milk Road noted that reaching mainnet requires the full Bitcoin community to agree on the soft fork. That process is historically slow in Bitcoin development circles.

Nevertheless, BTQ Technologies moved ahead by launching a functioning testnet rather than waiting for the threat to escalate. Tackling the problem before it becomes urgent reflects a responsible approach to long-term protocol security.

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Kraken’s Parent Payward Backs White House AI Framework to Strengthen U.S. Financial Infrastructure

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Brian Armstrong's Bold Prediction: AI Agents Will Soon Dominate Global Financial

TLDR:

  • Payward supports the White House AI framework to establish a clear, consistent federal AI policy across the U.S. 
  • Co-CEO Arjun Sethi warns that regulatory fragmentation becomes a chokepoint on deployment and capital allocation. 
  • Kraken backed the framework on X, stating AI will shape the next generation of financial and economic infrastructure. 
  • Payward sees the national AI framework as essential for leading AI-powered finance, tokenized assets, and digital infrastructure.

A national AI framework released by the White House has gained strong support from Payward, Kraken’s parent company.

The firm called for clarity, consistency, and U.S. competitiveness in federal AI governance. Payward stated the framework removes harmful regulatory fragmentation across state lines.

This would lower costs and speed up deployment for American AI companies building at scale.

Payward Frames AI as Foundational Infrastructure, Not an Application Layer

Payward welcomed the release of the White House’s national AI legislative framework. The company expressed full support for a clear, consistent federal approach to AI policy.

According to Payward, AI will shape the next generation of economic and market infrastructure. The key question is whether that infrastructure is built in the United States or elsewhere.

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Arjun Sethi, Co-CEO of Payward, drew a sharp comparison between AI and existing foundational systems. “AI is not an application-layer technology. It is becoming a foundational infrastructure layer, analogous to compute, networking, and financial rails,” Sethi said.

He added that the policy question is whether that infrastructure is built within a coherent U.S. regulatory system. The alternative, he warned, is fragmentation across jurisdictions that degrades performance and increases time to market.

Sethi went further in describing how fragmentation affects business operations and capital flow. “At scale, fragmentation is not just a regulatory issue. It becomes a chokepoint on system performance, introducing friction across deployment, data, and capital allocation,” he continued.

A clear national framework, he said, collapses that overhead entirely. It creates a clear surface area for builders to compete and develop globally dominant platforms.

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Sethi also tied AI governance directly to future economic leadership across nations. “Countries that value AI as infrastructure, and regulate it accordingly, will own the next generation of economic systems,” he stated.

Payward reaffirmed its commitment to responsible innovation in AI, blockchain, and finance. The company said a consistent federal policy supports continued growth across these interconnected sectors.

White House Framework Addresses AI-Powered Finance and Digital Asset Infrastructure

Kraken voiced its support through a post on social platform X, backing the new framework directly. “AI will shape the next generation of financial and economic infrastructure,” the exchange wrote.

It added that stronger policy foundations strengthen America’s ability to lead in technology and financial infrastructure. Kraken also noted its support for the White House’s work to advance a clearer national framework.

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The White House framework establishes guiding principles for a unified national AI approach. It aims to eliminate conflicting state-level rules that have slowed technology deployment.

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Moreover, it targets cost reductions and removes barriers for U.S. companies to build and scale. Societal safeguards are also woven into the framework alongside innovation and competitiveness goals.

Payward praised the Trump Administration’s approach to AI governance as forward-thinking and balanced. The framework covers AI-powered financial services, tokenized assets, and secure digital infrastructure.

These areas align directly with Payward’s core business in digital assets and financial technology. The firm said the framework strikes the right balance between rapid innovation and public safety.

Payward is committed to collaborating with policymakers, industry partners, and other relevant stakeholders. It stated that implementing the framework effectively remains a shared priority going forward.

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The company views this national AI framework as a foundation for U.S. technological dominance. It called on industry and government to work together in building globally competitive AI systems.

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Crypto markets edge higher as gold sinks 43-year drop amid Iran war

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Crypto Breaking News

Gold slid 3.5% on Friday, trading around $4,488 per ounce, as geopolitical volatility and uncertainty in the Middle East weighed on sentiment. The decline pushed the metal’s weekly drop to about 11%, the steepest weekly decline since 1983, underscoring how a risk-off environment can erode the appeal of traditional safe-havens when energy and geopolitical risks dominate markets.

From late February, when US and allied actions in the region intensified, gold has fallen more than 15%, erasing a portion of a rapid rally that had lifted prices toward the $5,500 mark in late January. TradingView data highlighted that March 16–20 marked gold’s worst-performing week since 1983, underscoring how quickly the narrative can shift in times of geopolitical strain. TradingView noted the week’s move as historically significant for the yellow metal.

Analysts say the conflict is disrupting global energy flows, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, feeding fears of a prolonged energy crisis as markets weigh the balance between safe-haven demand and the impact of higher energy costs on inflation and growth. In such an environment, investors are furling into risk-off assets while considering how energy-market dynamics might influence central-bank policy in the near term.

Amid the regional tensions, US President Donald Trump said he was weighing a winding-down of some Middle East military efforts. While talk of reducing troop deployments emerged, the United States has continued to bolster its regional presence, and airstrikes in the area persisted. The evolving stance adds another layer of uncertainty for traders trying to gauge the risk premium priced into gold and other assets.

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Market watchers are also focusing on the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. The broader expectation remains that the Fed will hold interest rates steady for the year, which could keep fixed-income yields attractive relative to gold in the near term. In a related note, Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled that higher energy prices could push inflation higher in the near term, complicating the inflation trajectory and potentially influencing the demand for both gold and crypto assets as hedges or diversifiers.

Bitcoin finds footing as gold wobbles

Over the past year, gold has outperformed many traditional assets, rising roughly 48.5% while the broader crypto market has retraced about 16.5% in the same period. In the current environment, Bitcoin has shown a degree of resilience, trading near $70,000 and having risen more than 11% since the initial Iran-related attacks. The latest move reflects a common pattern where crypto markets react to geopolitical shocks differently than traditional safe-havens, sometimes offering a counterbalance to gold’s shifts.

Bitcoin’s relative performance this month has been notable. While gold has faced renewed pressure from the energy and geopolitical backdrop, BTC’s pullback earlier this year has shifted into a recovery phase, with the digital asset reclaiming some ground as investors evaluate risk, liquidity, and the potential for institutional and retail adoption to influence price trajectories. The dynamics illustrate a broader theme in crypto markets: while gold’s role as a hedge remains debated in times of energy-market stress, Bitcoin can exhibit outsized sensitivity to policy signals, global risk appetite, and liquidity conditions.

That said, the longer-term relationship between gold and crypto remains nuanced. The twelve-month lens shows gold’s robust rally vs. a broader crypto retracement, highlighting ongoing debates about which assets best weather macro shocks and how central-bank policy, energy volatility, and geopolitical risks reweight those choices for investors, traders, and builders in the crypto ecosystem.

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What this means for markets and readers

The current environment underscores a few persistent themes for crypto markets and traditional assets alike. First, geopolitical risk can simultaneously depress traditional safe havens like gold and alter risk sentiment in crypto, where Bitcoin and other digital assets may trade as high-beta instruments in the short term. Second, energy-price dynamics and central-bank policy expectations are closely linked; if energy costs push inflation higher longer than anticipated, monetary policy paths may shift, affecting both gold’s appeal and crypto liquidity environments. Lastly, as the Strait of Hormuz and related chokepoints remain in focus, traders will continue to monitor oil-flow disruptions and their implications for global growth and asset correlations.

Investors should watch how central banks respond to evolving energy and inflation signals in the coming weeks, alongside any escalation or de-escalation in regional tensions. Crypto traders may look for catalysts in liquidity shifts, exchange flows, and macro scenarios that could widen the divergence between traditional safe-havens and digital-asset assets.

Looking ahead, the market will be attentive to any developments that could alter the risk calculus: a clear shift in Middle East policy, updates from the Fed on rate guidance, and how energy markets respond to supply-and-demand dynamics. In these conditions, gold and Bitcoin continue to offer distinct narratives about hedging, risk-taking, and the evolving role of crypto in a macro-driven market backdrop.

Readers should stay tuned for updates on geopolitical developments, central-bank communications, and energy-market signals, as they will shape the relative performance of gold, Bitcoin, and the broader crypto landscape in the near term.

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Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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Bitcoin Wallet With 2,100 BTC Wakes Up After 14 Years

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Bitcoin Wallet With 2,100 BTC Wakes Up After 14 Years

A Satoshi-era Bitcoin whale has reawakened after nearly 14 years of dormancy, making a test transaction from its 2,100 Bitcoin stash worth nearly $148 million at current market prices.

Data from mempool.space shows around $47 worth of Bitcoin (BTC) was transferred from wallet address “1NB3Z…QB6ZX” to a fresh address on Friday at 10:27am UTC.

The Bitcoin whale had been dormant since July 2012, when they scooped up the 2,100 Bitcoin at roughly $6.5 a coin for about $13,685, Whale Alert noted, meaning the trader is up more than 1,000,000% since 2012.

Source: Whale Alert

The test transaction doesn’t necessarily mean the whale is looking to offload its holdings. Many whales make small transfers to confirm that they still maintain full control over their funds.

However, crypto traders often watch whale transaction patterns to gauge Bitcoin’s short-term price movements, given the outsized influence that they have on market liquidity and sentiment.

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Bitcoin whales contributed to selling pressure in the past

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan said in November that Satoshi-era wallets were partially to blame for Bitcoin failing to recover from the Oct. 10 market flash crash, when the cryptocurrency fell from over $120,000 to around $102,000 after nearly $19 billion worth of leveraged positions were wiped out.