The International Monetary Fund has highlighted both the promise and the peril of tokenization in finance. In a 23-page assessment released this week, the IMF said tokenization could reduce friction and increase transparency across issuance, trading, settlement and asset management. Yet it warned that the same technology could also introduce risks that might affect financial stability, especially as speed and automation enable rapid, automated flows that leave less room for traditional oversight.

The IMF’s analysis stresses that while atomic settlement and enhanced visibility can mitigate some longstanding dangers, the accelerated pace of tokenized markets could give rise to new systemic stress if controls aren’t aligned with legal and supervisory clarity. A central finding remains: “The net effect of tokenization on financial stability is uncertain,” the IMF wrote, underscoring the delicate balance between improved efficiency and new risk vectors.

Key takeaways

• Tokenization reduces some traditional risks through faster settlement and greater transparency, but speed and automation introduce new financial-stability challenges.
• On-chain tokenization of real-world assets has surpassed $27.6 billion, excluding stablecoins, according to RWA.xyz data, highlighting growing industry activity.
• Long-run forecasts for the tokenization market vary widely—BCG in 2022 projected up to $16 trillion by 2030, while McKinsey in 2024 offered a more conservative $2 trillion—the gap reflecting differing assumptions about liquidity, regulation and adoption.
• Legal clarity over ownership records and settlement finality remains a bottleneck; the IMF notes fragmented markets could hamper widespread use unless governance keeps pace with technology.

The economic arc of tokenized real-world assets

The IMF’s report acknowledges that tokenization expands how securities and other financial products are issued, traded, settled and managed. But it also cautions that the technology effectively shifts some systemic risk from traditional banking rails to shared ledgers and smart contract code. In a phrase that captures the urgency for policymakers, the IMF warned that “stress events in tokenized markets are likely to unfold faster than in traditional systems, leaving less time for discretionary intervention.”

On the demand side, tokenization is being seen as a means to accelerate cross-border payments, broaden financial inclusion and unlock new channels for capital flow in emerging markets. Yet, the IMF also flags potential downsides: greater volatility in capital moves, rapid currency substitution and a perceived erosion of monetary sovereignty if participants rely on programmable money without adequate supervisory guardrails.

While the IMF is cautious, market participants are moving ahead. Real-world asset (RWA) tokenization has already drawn substantial traction. As of early April, data from RWA.xyz show more than $27.6 billion of real-world assets tokenized on-chain, excluding stablecoins. The scale of this segment points to a broader appetite among institutions to digitize assets like receivables, property interests and other non-tokenized holdings.

In the broader market outlook, the debate centers on scalability and liquidity. Industry studies have delivered mixed signals about the ultimate size of the opportunity. Boston Consulting Group estimated in 2022 that the tokenization market could swell to as much as $16 trillion by 2030, while McKinsey & Co. offered a notably more cautious projection of around $2 trillion for the same horizon. The IMF’s assessment sits between these bounds, emphasizing potential but underscoring the need for robust risk management as the ecosystem grows.

Industry momentum and notable players

Interest from Wall Street has been a key driver. High-profile figures such as BlackRock CEO Larry Fink have signaled support for tokenizing a broad spectrum of assets—from equities and bonds to money market funds and real estate—marking a shift in institutional attitudes toward on-chain representations of traditional instruments.

Within the on-chain asset category, Securitize has emerged as a leading platform by total value locked (TVL) in real-world asset tokenization. Securitize powers the BlackRock USD Institutional Digital Liquidity Fund, a major RWA project with reported TVL around $3.38 billion, per CryptoDep’s April data. Closely following are Tether Gold and Ondo Finance, with roughly $3.35 billion and $3.21 billion in TVL, respectively, underscoring a crowded field of tokenized wealth vehicles aimed at institutional investors.

Beyond tokenized assets themselves, the traditional exchanges are signaling their intent to bring tokenization into mainstream trading and settlement. Intercontinental Exchange, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, announced in January that it would launch a tokenization platform designed for 24/7 trading and instant settlement of stocks and exchange-traded funds via a blockchain-based post-trade system. The move indicates a direction where tokenized securities could become an integrated, continuous-source of liquidity rather than a niche, off-hours exercise.

Standards, regulation and practical controls

One of the IMF’s pointed critiques centers on legal and regulatory clarity. Without well-defined ownership records and settlement finality, tokenized markets risk becoming fragmented and peripheral to the broader financial system. In response, the industry has begun embracing standards and access controls to align technology with regulatory expectations.

Among the notable technical developments is the Ethereum ecosystem’s ERC-3643 standard, which enables permissioned access to tokenized assets and imposes identity and eligibility checks for holders. In practice, this standard is already being applied by some tokenized products to ensure compliance with investor requirements. A concrete example cited in the industry press is Coinbase Asset Management’s tokenized shares for the Coinbase Bitcoin Yield Fund, issued on the Base network (an Ethereum Layer 2). The fund leverages ERC-3643 to verify holder identity and eligibility during tokenization and post-trade processes.

The IMF also points to the broader regulatory architecture around stablecoins, cross-border flows and monetary sovereignty as areas that require ongoing attention as tokenized markets scale. The balance between enabling innovation and preserving monetary policy effectiveness will be a central theme for policymakers over the coming years.

What to watch next

As tokenization marches from pilot projects to greater market participation, investors and builders will be watching several key dynamics. First, whether legal frameworks and settlement finality standards crystallize in a way that reduces fragmentation and reassures traditional market participants. Second, whether liquidity continues to grow in real‑world asset tokens to the point where they rival or surpass traditional offline channels. Third, which infrastructure—clearing, custody, identity verification, and cross-border rails—will emerge as the de facto backbone for scalable tokenized markets. And finally, whether central banks and regulators adopt a calibrated stance that supports innovation without sacrificing financial stability.

In the near term, a handful of large players and platforms—creators of RWA markets, major asset managers experimenting with tokenized funds, and exchange operators expanding tokenized trading—will likely shape the pace and direction of adoption. The IMF’s findings suggest this is not a one-off tech experiment but a continental shift in how assets are created, traded and settled—one that demands careful risk governance as the ecosystem matures.

Readers should monitor developments around legal clarifications for tokenized ownership, concrete liquidity metrics for tokenized assets, and the progression of compliant standards like ERC-3643 as the market seeks a balance between efficiency and resilience.

Polymarket has partnered with oracle provider Pyth Network to launch traditional asset markets on its platform.

According to an Apr. 2 announcement, the latest addition brings daily up-or-down and closing price contracts for major equity indexes, alongside commodities such as gold and oil, and US-listed stocks. Outcomes on these contracts are determined using Pyth’s real-time price feeds, and the markets reset at the end of each trading session.

Pyth Network will act as the resolution layer for these markets, replacing manual or exchange-specific references with a standardized data source aggregated from trading firms and market makers.

Simultaneously, Pyth has launched a data interface called Pyth Terminal, allowing users to track live price feeds and the reference values used to settle markets on Polymarket.

Oracle networks like Pyth bring off-chain data such as prices, foreign exchange rates, and commodities onto blockchains. These feeds are widely used across decentralized finance, prediction markets, and tokenized asset platforms, and have seen growing adoption, including by US government agencies.

PYTH price rallied over 70% after the announcement, while its market capitalization moved past $1 billion.

The latest products on Polymarket were launched as the platform continues to cement its position as a leading prediction market operator.

Last month, the project secured a $600 million investment from Intercontinental Exchange, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, as part of a broader multibillion-dollar commitment.

Meanwhile, Polymarket made investments of its own by acquiring DeFi infrastructure startup Brahma for an undisclosed sum.

The amount of Bitcoin supply in profit and loss is now getting closer to levels typical of a bear market, according to a CryptoQuant analyst.

There are currently about 11.2 million Bitcoin (BTC) in profit. The previous bear market recorded 9 million BTC in profit at its lowest point, CryptoQuant analyst “Darkfost” said Thursday. 

CryptoQuant data also shows there are about 8.2 million Bitcoin at a loss, with Glassnode data confirming it’s at levels not seen since late 2022. 

“This is quite significant, considering that during the last bear market this figure reached about 10.6 million BTC,” Darkfost said. 

Analysts have been debating whether Bitcoin has further to fall this year amid growing global turmoil. Bitcoin metrics that show a movement toward previous cycle lows could suggest that a market bottom is getting closer. 

“This suggests that the market is reaching a notable level of undervaluation, comparable to the conditions observed during the previous bear market,” the analyst added. 

Analyst sees increasing market stress, not undervaluation 

However, Andri Fauzan Adziima, research lead at the Bitrue exchange, argued the data signals “increasing market stress, not immediate undervaluation.”

True capitulation bottoms saw deeper pain, he told Cointelegraph. The supply in loss in 2022 was greater than 50% and the supply in profit was around 45% or lower, while metrics such as net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL) and market value to realized value ratio (MVRV) were at “extremes.”

“Current data points to early/mid-bear transition (potential structural bottom near $55,000), with more downside or consolidation likely before a full reset.”

Related: Bitcoin’s drawdown is ‘less dramatic’ this cycle, Fidelity says

Data also shows Bitcoin has declined by about 52% from its all-time high this cycle, much less than previous bear markets, which saw 77% to 84% drawdowns from their cycle highs. 

Strong dollar hampering recovery 

Bitcoin author Timothy Peterson commented on X that Bitcoin “tends to struggle when the dollar is strong, and the Chinese yuan is weak.”

He added that this was due to tighter global liquidity, with higher dollar yields attracting capital into cash and bonds and cautious investor sentiment as China eases policy.

That only changes when US interest rates fall and “dollar yield loses its attractiveness,” which is not likely until the second half of 2026 or more likely 2027, he said. 

The US dollar index (DXY) has gained about 5% over the past two months, according to TradingView. 

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