Crypto World
JPMorgan Gives Bold Nvidia Price Prediction, But Is It Realistic?
NVIDIA Stock just delivered a record-breaking Q4 with $68.1 billion in revenue, 73% year-over-year growth, and earnings per share of $1.62 that crushed estimates. JPMorgan, among others, wasted no time raising its price target from $250 to $265.
Yet on February 26, the stock fell nearly 7% from its session high of $197 to under $185. The results are undeniable. But the price action, the money flow, and the institutional behavior tell a very different story. At least, for now.
The Numbers Look Bulletproof, Until You Look Closer
NVIDIA’s Q4 numbers speak for themselves. Revenue hit $68.1 billion, up 73% year-over-year. The data center segment alone pulled in $62.3 billion, making up 91% of total revenue. EPS (Earnings Per Share) of $1.62 beat the $1.53 consensus by nearly 6%.
And the Q1 FY2027 guidance of $78 billion blew past Wall Street’s $72.8 billion estimate — a figure that notably excludes any revenue from China.
JPMorgan analyst Harlan Sur responded by lifting the Nvidia price target from $250 to $265.
But here is what most analysts are not highlighting. NVIDIA’s quarter-over-quarter growth rate is quietly decelerating. Q3 grew 22% over Q2. Q4 grew 19.5% over Q3.
The Q1 guidance implies roughly 14.5% sequential growth. Revenue keeps hitting records, but the pace of acceleration is fading. For a stock priced on growth momentum, this distinction matters. Something big money might be watching.
There is also the question of who is actually driving this revenue. Deepwater Asset Management’s Gene Munster estimates that roughly 70% of Nvidia’s revenue comes from just 8 companies.
CFO Colette Kress confirmed that the top 5 hyperscalers (cloud computing providers) account for slightly over 50% of data center revenue. That level of customer concentration means that even a modest 10-15% reduction in AI capex from a few major buyers could translate into billions in lost quarterly revenue.
It is also worth noting that JPMorgan’s asset management division is itself a significant institutional holder of Nvidia.
This is standard on Wall Street, but it is a context that retail investors should be aware of when evaluating the bullishness behind a price target upgrade.
What Retail NVDA Investors See vs What Institutions Are Doing
On-Balance Volume (OBV), an indicator that tracks cumulative buying and selling pressure by adding volume on up days and subtracting it on down days, tells a positive story on the surface.
OBV has maintained higher highs throughout Nvidia’s 3-month consolidation, suggesting retail-driven buying pressure remains consistently positive. However, it still needs to break past its ascending trendline resistance to confirm genuine broad-based strength.
The most recent 13F filings (quarterly reports large investors must file with the SEC revealing their positions) for Q4 2025 show a dramatic shift in institutional sentiment.
Net institutional money flow surged to approximately $149 billion in purchases against $36 billion in sales — a net inflow of roughly $113 billion. That is a massive improvement from Q3, where institutions bought $38 billion and sold $34 billion, leaving a net inflow of just $4 billion.
Yet despite this wall of institutional money entering NVDA in Q4, the stock barely moved — trading sideways for most of the period. That suggests institutions were accumulating, but supply from insiders and earlier holders absorbed the demand. NVIDIA director Mark Stevens sold approximately $40 million in shares in December.
Bank of America, while slightly increasing its equity stake, closed out both its call and put options positions entirely — neutralizing its directional bets.
Institutions are clearly positioned. But the hedging and the flat price despite massive inflows suggest they are bracing for something. The next section explores what that might be.
The Risk Hiding in the Charts
The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), an indicator that measures whether money is flowing into or out of a stock based on where the price closes within its daily range weighted by volume, reveals what the earnings headline does not.
Since February 5, as the right shoulder of Nvidia’s inverse head and shoulders pattern formed, CMF climbed steadily alongside the price. It rose all the way into the February 25 earnings breakout when Nvidia briefly touched $197.
Then on February 26, as the stock reversed sharply to $185, CMF plunged.
That sudden collapse suggests the money flowing in during the rally was speculative positioning — not committed institutional capital — and it evaporated the moment the breakout failed. And based on what we discussed earlier, revenue deceleration could be a reason.
The monthly VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price, which approximates where institutions have built their positions) reinforces this. NVIDIA had been trading above its monthly VWAP since breaking out on February 17.
The last time Nvidia broke below the monthly VWAP was on January 30, which led to a correction of approximately 8.5% by early February.
As of February 26, the stock has once again fallen below this line. This means recent institutional buyers are now underwater, which historically triggers further selling as stop losses unwind.
The technical breakdown has context. Michael Burry flagged today that Nvidia’s supply commitments have ballooned to levels that mirror Cisco before the dot-com bust — a company that wrote down billions when demand didn’t meet expectations.
CFO Kress acknowledged Nvidia has locked in inventory “further out in time than usual.” Bulls like BofA’s Vivek Arya argue this secures Nvidia’s dominance. But CMF collapsing and VWAP breaking on the same day suggests the market isn’t waiting to find out who’s right.
The NVIDIA Stock Price Levels That Decide What Happens Next
The charts, the money flow, and the institutional positioning all point to the same conclusion — $195 is where conviction gets tested, a level highlighted later on the chart. But first, the risk.
On the daily chart, a hidden bearish divergence has formed between November 10 and February 25. During this period, the NVIDIA stock price made a lower high while the Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum indicator, made a higher high
It is a signal that upward momentum is quietly fading even as the stock appears to hold its range.
Since that November divergence started developing, Nvidia has been locked between $169 and $199. It couldn’t break out of this consolidation despite multiple attempts — including the inverse head-and-shoulders breakout on February 25, which failed within 24 hours.
The Fibonacci extension levels from the pattern now frame what comes next. On the downside, $183 at the 0.5 level is the immediate support. Below that, $180 at the 0.382 level becomes critical — a break there exposes $170, the right shoulder low, and $169, the head. Those levels would invalidate the pattern entirely.
On the upside, the neckline at $195 remains the key resistance and the conviction tester. A clean daily close above it, which the NVIDIA stock failed to do yesterday, is needed to reactivate the pattern.
That could push it towards the projected target at $226, the full head-to-neckline measurement.
The next extension at $235 brings it closer to JPMorgan’s $265 target. The path exists on paper.
But as the money flow, the hidden bearish divergence, and today’s 7% rejection all confirm, this is a market that’s not buying it yet.
Crypto World
Bitcoin (BTC) price holds steady, with one analyst seeing the upside emerging: Crypto Daybook Americas
By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
Bitcoin has stabilized above $70,000. Its relative strength is noteworthy given the selloff over the week, which saw it drop from over $75,000.
Most assets saw sharp downturns over the period as the conflict in Iran escalated, damaging vital energy infrastructure. A hotter-than-expected February U.S. PPI print compounded the effect.
Traditional havens, including gold and silver, also tumbled while Brent crude surged above $110 a barrel owing to supply disruptions caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
The Fed didn’t help. While the U.S. central bank held interest rates steady on Wednesday, as expected, its tone turned hawkish. The conflict’s effects have damped rate-cut expectations, and, in fact, the perceived odds of rate increases surge from 8% to top 24% on prediction markets.
André Dragosch, head of research for Europe at Bitwise, told CoinDesk the bitcoin sits at the intersection of two powerful and opposing forces, and that the balance may already be tipping in the token’s favour.
On one side, rising inflation expectations are supportive, Dragosch said. Bitcoin bull runs have historically aligned with expansions in the ISM Manufacturing Index, which rose sharply this year, and rising inflation expectations.
“This combination of rising economic activity and inflation expectations is probably one of the key reasons why bitcoin recently managed to outperform other traditional assets like gold and US equities,” he said. “Bitcoin is also generally less interest rate-sensitive than gold, which is why it wasn’t so much affected by the rise in bond yields. “
On the other hand, tighter financial conditions are a headwind. Bitcoin, however, may have been acting as the canary in what Dragosch called the “macro coal mine.”
“Bitcoin appears to have already priced in much of this tightening, exhibiting a record “macro discount” and front-running the recent deterioration in forward-looking indicators,” Dragosch said.
Looking ahead, a key catalyst will remain improving financial conditions. That means the conflict in the Middle East ending and the Strait of Hormuz reopening, even as developments in the crypto space show growing adoption. Stay alert!
Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today
What to Watch
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.
- Crypto
- Macro
- March 20, 8:30 a.m.: Canada PPI YoY (Prev. 5.4%); MoM (Prev. 2.7%)
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
- March 20: BitFuFu (FUFU), pre-market, $0.01
Token Events
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.
- Governance votes & calls
- Lightchain AI DAO is voting on a temporary 90-day team authority proposal, which grants the core team short-term operational authority to make day-to-day and strategic decisions. Voting ends March 22.
- Unlocks
- March 20: LayerZero (ZRO) to unlock 5.64% of its circulating supply worth $52.45 million.
- Token Launches
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.
Market Movements
- BTC is up 0.29% from 4 p.m. ET Thursday at $70,608.19 (24hrs: +0.69%)
- ETH is down 0.55% at $2,148.07 (24hrs: -1.14%)
- CoinDesk 20 is up 0.34% at 2,044.85 (24hrs: unchanged)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 2 bps at 2.76%
- BTC funding rate is at -0.0020% (-2.1703% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is down 0.38% at 99.70
- Gold futures are up 1.58% at $4,673.60
- Silver futures are up 1.75% at $72.14
- Nikkei 225 closed down 3.38% at 53,372.53
- Hang Seng closed down 0.88% at 25,277.32
- FTSE 100 is down 2.16% at 10,082.61
- Euro Stoxx 50 is down 1.71% at 5,638.54
- DJIA closed on Thursday down 0.44% at 46,021.43
- S&P 500 closed down 0.27% at 6,606.49
- Nasdaq Composite closed down 0.28% at 22,090.69
- S&P/TSX Composite closed down 1.42% at 31,854.98
- S&P 40 Latin America closed up 0.22% at 3,466.80
- U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is up 2 bps at 4.28%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.52% at 6,625.50
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.68% at 24,412.50
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are down 0.43% at 46,140.00
Bitcoin Stats
- BTC Dominance: 58.90% (0.18%)
- Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.03043 (-0.49%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 925 EH/s
- Hashprice (spot): $30.68
- Total fees: 2.95 BTC / $206,875
- CME Futures Open Interest: 117,190 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 15.2 oz.
- BTC vs gold market cap: 4.72%
Technical Analysis
- BTC/SPX may be showing signs of bottoming out – with RSI bouncing off from oversold levels and the line maintaining its trend.
- The ratio is currently below the 50-week exponential moving average, which implies more range-bound performance until we see a breakout above the average.
Crypto Equities
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Thursday at $202.91 (+0.31%), -0.45% at $201.99 in pre-market
- Circle Internet Group (CRCL): closed at $128.33 (-3.40%), -2.20% at $125.51
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $21.05 (-2.46%), -0.71% at $20.90
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $9.22 (+3.36%), -0.33% at $9.19
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $14.14 (+0.28%), +0.28% at $14.18
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $16.48 (+0.80%)
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.83 (-0.51%), -0.31% at $9.80
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $7.73 (-4.57%)
- CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF (WGMI): closed at $39.10 (+0.00%)
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $39.60 (+3.45%), -0.98% at $39.21
Crypto Treasury Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $138.24 (-1.65%), +0.54% at $138.99
- Strive Asset Management (ASST): closed at $10.26 (+2.24%), +0.49% at $10.31
- SharpLink (SBET): closed at $7.68 (-2.41%), +1.04% at $7.76
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $1.07 (+0.00%), +1.87% at $1.09
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.17 (-0.85%)
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs
- Daily net flows: -$90.2 million
- Cumulative net flows: $56.26 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.29 million
Spot ETH ETFs
- Daily net flows: -$136.4 million
- Cumulative net flows: $11.8 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~5.76 million
Source: Farside Investors
While You Were Sleeping
South Korea’s National Tax Service (NTS) is moving to select a private custody provider for seized crypto assets after a February press release exposed a wallet recovery phrase and triggered the unauthorized transfer of confiscated tokens.
On Feb. 26, the NTS accidentally exposed a crypto wallet seed phrase in an official press release, resulting in the unauthorized transfer of crypto tokens valued at about $4.8 million. The release included an image of a Ledger cold wallet and a sheet of paper showing the mnemonic phrase without being blurred.
Citing people familiar with the matter, ZDNet Korea reported that the agency is reviewing a plan to outsource custody of confiscated crypto and is drafting selection criteria for providers. The NTS is reportedly aiming to select a provider within the first half of 2026.
The agency plans to evaluate candidates based on several factors, including security requirements, company size, and whether the firm holds insurance under South Korea’s Virtual Asset User Protection Act, ZDNet Korea reported.
The move shows South Korean authorities are trying to formalize custody of seized crypto after a series of handling failures exposed weaknesses in how confiscated digital assets are stored and managed.
New task force to oversee custody provider selection process
The custody selection will reportedly be led by a newly-formed task force focused on advancing digital asset management systems.
The task force is reportedly working on several initiatives, including improving operational manuals covering the full life cycle of seized assets, from seizure to storage and liquidation. It would also conduct assessments and personnel training.
Related: South Korea opposition party pushes to scrap planned 22% crypto tax
The group is also preparing to establish a dedicated division to oversee crypto-related work.
An NTS official said that since crypto is relatively new, responsibilities are split across departments. However, preparations are underway to create a centralized unit, ZDNet Korea reported.
NTS wallet seed leak prompts inter-agency probe
The NTS’s wallet leak and a separate custody failure in which Seoul’s Gangnam police allegedly lost 22 BTC seized prompted authorities to conduct an inter-agency review of seized crypto assets.
On March 1, South Korea’s Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy and Finance, Koo Yun-cheol, announced a cross-agency probe on how the government handles seized digital assets.
Magazine: Metaplanet’s Japan Bitcoin bet, Bithumb ordered suspension: Asia Express
Gemini Crypto is getting sued.
Shareholders filed a class-action in Manhattan federal court claiming the exchange lied to investors during its September IPO.
The target is the company itself and the Winklevoss twins. The allegation is that Gemini raised capital on a growth story, then quietly ditched it for prediction markets and cost-cutting the moment the money was in.
The stock tells the rest of the story. From a post-IPO high of $40 down to around $6. That is an 80% collapse, and now the people who bought in want answers.
- Lawsuit Details: Plaintiff Marc Methvin filed the class-action in Manhattan, accusing Gemini executives of misleading shareholders about the company’s business model.
- Stock Collapse: After pricing its IPO at $28 and touching $40, Gemini shares handled on Nasdaq have plummeted more than 80% to trade near $6.
- Strategic Pivot: The complaint alleges Gemini secretly planned to pivot from its core exchange product to a prediction market model while cutting staff and exiting key regions.
The Mechanics of the Bait-and-Switch Allegation: What the Lawsuit Claims
The lawsuit comes down to one thing: what Gemini told investors and what it actually did.
Gemini listed on the Nasdaq in September at $28. The pitch was global expansion, user growth, and a central exchange built to scale internationally. Shareholders bought in. Then the story changed fast.
By November, executives were still talking up key global markets. By February, the Winklevoss brothers scrapped the entire narrative.
They announced Gemini 2.0, a pivot toward prediction markets, alongside a 25% workforce reduction. Then came the exits. EU, UK, Australia. Every market flagged as a growth opportunity, gone.
The plaintiff argues this was not a reaction to market conditions. It was a planned strategy shift that made the IPO materials misleading from the start.
If internal communications contradict what was in the prospectus, that is a serious problem. Dismissing a misleading disclosure charge is hard when the paper trail works against you.
The regulatory environment does not help Gemini here either. When shareholder litigation runs on securities law, and securities law does not bend for sentiment. This is also a different fight from the Earn program settlement. That was about unregistered securities. This is about whether investors were sold a business model that was already being abandoned.
The pivot to prediction markets trades a large addressable market for a speculative niche. Gemini capped its own ceiling and the stock reflects it.
Discover: The best new crypto in the world
The post Gemini Crypto Sued Over Post-IPO Strategy Shift and Stock Decline appeared first on Cryptonews.
In a survey released on Thursday, Ripple said 72% of more than 1,000 global finance leaders believe companies must offer digital asset solutions to stay competitive.
The survey found stablecoins were the most prominent use case, with 74% of respondents saying they can boost cash flow and unlock trapped capital.
The report polled around 1,000 finance firms globally, including banks, asset managers, fintechs and corporates, on adoption, stablecoins, tokenization and custody priorities.
The findings suggest many financial firms are focusing less on whether to engage with digital assets and more on how to buy, build or partner for the infrastructure needed to support them.
Ripple said the shift toward digital assets is being driven by evolving regulation, growing interest from large banks, increased use of fintech services and the rise of stablecoins.
Stablecoins top the survey’s digital asset use cases
Respondents showed the strongest interest in stablecoins. “That unanimity makes it clear that finance leaders are thinking about stablecoins as more than just a new way to execute payments,” Ripple said, adding that institutions increasingly view them as tools for treasury management.
The survey suggests fintech firms are leading adoption. Around 47% of fintech respondents said they plan to build their own digital asset solutions, compared to 14% of corporates. In contrast, 74% of corporates said they intend to work with external providers.
Banks and asset managers prioritize digital asset custody
The survey showed growing interest in tokenization, with banks and asset managers prioritizing digital asset custody, or secure storage. Some 89% of those evaluating tokenization partners cited secure storage as a top concern, while token lifecycle management and primary distribution ranked at 82% and 80%, respectively.
Bank respondents also indicated strong demand for advisory support, with 85% citing pre-issuance structuring as important, compared to 76% of asset managers.
Related: 74% of institutions expect crypto prices to rise in 12 months: Survey
“This indicates that many institutions are seeking experienced partners to guide implementation alongside technology deployment,” Ripple said.
When choosing infrastructure partners, 97% of respondents highlighted the importance of security certifications such as ISO and SOC II.
The survey underscores that digital assets are no longer optional. “Most finance leaders aren’t debating digital assets anymore,” Ripple said in a post on X, adding: “They’re figuring out how to build with them and who to build with.”
Magazine: Are DeFi devs liable for the illegal activity of others on their platforms?
XRP price rebounded back above $1.45 on Friday after bulls managed to defend the $1.40 support during the market-wide bloodbath over the past day.
Summary
- XRP rebounded above $1.45 after defending $1.40 support, despite broader market weakness driven by geopolitical tensions and risk-off sentiment.
- Whale accumulation of over 200 million XRP and $150 million in institutional holdings signals renewed interest, alongside speculation of a potential XRP treasury.
- Technical setup shows a descending channel and a rounded bottom, with a breakout above $1.69 potentially opening upside toward $2.1.
After falling nearly 11% from its weekly high to $1.45 on March 19, XRP (XRP) price bounced back to $1.45 at the last check on Friday, March 20.
XRP price fell as the broader crypto market tanked amid escalating war concerns in the Middle East, which has left investors to move to a derisking mode as they turn toward gold and other safe-haven assets to park their capital until concerns cool off.
Despite the recent volatility, a few key developments could support a potential recovery for the asset.
First, whales have returned to accumulation mode in recent weeks, a major signal that often influences retail sentiment.
In a recent X post, market analyst Ali Martinez shared on-chain data that shows XRP whales have accumulated at least 200 million XRP over the past two weeks.
Second, Goldman Sachs, one of the world’s leading investment banks, has now become the largest institutional holder of XRP in the U.S. The banking giant reportedly holds over $150 million worth of XRP across four spot XRP funds, more than the combined holdings of the next 29 institutional holders in line.
Such massive endorsements from prominent financial institutions could drive greater appeal for the token as it transitions into a mainstream investment vehicle.
Third, investor hype is also building over an XRP treasury reserve being established by Evernorth. Such a move could mirror the approach taken by Michael Saylor with Bitcoin at Strategy and help to solidify XRP as a cornerstone institutional asset.
The firm said it will be the largest XRP holder after its public listing. The strategic move could give XRP more visibility and prestige in the eyes of traditional investors who are looking for regulated exposure to the crypto market.
On the daily chart, XRP price has respected a descending parallel channel pattern in which it has been trading since mid-July 2025. A breakout from such a bullish reversal pattern has typically been a precursor to a sustained rally as it signals the end of a long-term corrective phase.
More recently, XRP price has also been forming a rounded bottom pattern, which has historically been followed by a gradual shift from bearish to bullish sentiment as buyers slowly regain control.
For now, the key resistance level to watch is $1.69, which serves as the neckline of the rounded bottom pattern. A move past this point would confirm both a breakout from the pattern and the descending channel at the same time.
A decisive break above this level could lift XRP up to $2.1, a target that has been calculated by adding the height of the rounded bottom to the point at which the breakout occurs.
Momentum indicators seem to present a strengthening case for the bulls. Notably, the MACD lines have pointed upwards while the Aroon Up at 78.57% sits far above the Aroon Down at 14.29%, also confirming that the upward trend is currently gaining significant steam.
Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.
Crypto World
Bitcoin consolidates as traders hedge and macro uncertainty lingers: Crypto Markets Today
Crypto markets were little changed Friday, with the CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20) virtually unchanged. Bitcoin has gained just 0.8% since midnight UTC and ether (ETH) added less than 0.1%.
Crude oil prices dropped below $100 on Thursday and were recently trading at $96 per barrel as the U.S. was said to be assessing whether it should release sanctioned Iranian oil to increase supply and reduce pressure on prices.
This gave a momentary boost to risk assets with U.S. equities showing signs of recovery, but that move has now reversed. Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 futures are down by 0.6% and 0.4%, respectively, since midnight, indicating continued market fragility.
Precious metals are now trading back in line with crypto after a ferocious rally to record highs at the start of the year. Gold is at $4,660 after putting in a top at $5,600 on Jan. 29.
Derivatives positioning
- Bitcoin open interest (OI) stabilized at $16.9 billion, roughly mirroring last week’s $17 billion and suggesting speculative activity has leveled off.
- Funding rates across most platforms have returned to a neutral range of 0%-10%, with the negative rates observed over the previous two days probably fueling an initial relief rally through short covering before contributing to the recent crash.
- The three-month annualized basis is holding steady at 2.8%, a sign that institutional conviction remains cautious.
- The options market reflects defensive positioning: The 24-hour call-to-put volume split has shifted to 43/56.
- Risk aversion is tightening, with the one-week 25-delta skew rising to 14% from 9%, notably increasing the cost of downside protection.
- The implied volatility term structure confirms a sharp front-end spike into backwardation, a signal that traders are bracing for an immediate, high-impact volatility event, prioritizing short-term hedging over stable mid-term growth expectations.
- Long-dated implied volatility (IV) remains anchored near 50%,
- Coinglass data shows $308 million in 24-hour liquidations, with a 63-37 split between longs and shorts. BTC (93 million), ETH ($81 million) and others ($19 million) were the leaders in terms of notional liquidations.
- The Binance liquidation heatmap indicates $68,500 as a core liquidation level to monitor in case of a price drop.
Token talk
- The altcoin market continues to show signs of optimism despite many of the crypto majors remaining trapped in a tight trading range since early February.
- Quant (QNT) is up by 7.5% since midnight following a spot listing on popular trading app Robinhood, while AI token FET has extended its rich vein of form, rising by 6.5%.
- CoinMarketCap’s Altcoin Season index is currently at 46/100, falling back slightly but still well above February’s lows, when it languished in the low 20s.
- While the CoinDesk 20 (CD20) Index is flat since midnight, the altcoin-dominant CoinDesk 80 (CD80) is up by 0.3%, indicating a slight outperformance.
Yesterday, the Bank of England’s decision had a significant impact on the pound, which strengthened against other currencies. Although the Official Bank Rate remained unchanged at 3.75%, the market was surprised by the “hawkish” signals, which sharply contrasted with the dovish statements made at the February meeting.
According to media reports:
→ None of the nine committee members voted to cut the rate;
→ The phrase stating that the rate “could be lowered in the future” was removed from the final statement.
Thus, the Bank of England indicated that it is ready to raise rates if the energy shock caused by the Middle East conflict accelerates inflation.
The hawkish stance contributed to the pound rising above the upper boundary of the channel in which it had been trading since late January.
Technical Analysis – GBP/USD
Movements in GBP/USD during March suggest that 1.3250 serves as an important support level. Additionally, following yesterday’s news, bulls may find support around 1.3374, where:
→ On 18 March, the market encountered resistance;
→ The upper boundary of the channel was broken yesterday.
On the other hand, the long upper wick on yesterday’s candle (as indicated by the arrow) points to bear activity. Even if the bullish momentum has not yet exhausted itself, further gains in GBP/USD may face resistance at higher levels, including:
→ Psychological level at 1.3500;
→ The high of 10 March;
→ The upper boundary of the expanded double red descending channel.
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Key Highlights
- XPeng achieved its maiden quarterly net profit of 383.2 million yuan (approximately $55.5M) during Q4 2025
- Quarterly revenue surged 38% compared to the prior year, reaching 22.25 billion yuan and exceeding Wall Street expectations
- Gross profit margin expanded to 21.3%, representing a significant improvement from the 14.4% recorded one year prior
- Shares gained roughly 2% during early market hours; American Depositary Receipts advanced 0.8% to $19.30 in pre-market activity
- China’s three leading emerging electric vehicle manufacturers — XPeng, NIO, and Li Auto — have all crossed into profitability territory
The Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer shipped 116,249 vehicles during the fourth quarter, establishing a new company benchmark, although falling short of its previously issued guidance range of 125,000–132,000 units. Despite the delivery miss, the financial outcome caught Wall Street off guard — market analysts had anticipated a net loss approaching 200 million yuan.
Across the entire 2025 fiscal year, the company’s net loss contracted dramatically to 1.14 billion yuan compared to 5.79 billion yuan recorded in 2024. Annual revenue exploded 88% higher to reach 76.72 billion yuan.
The margin expansion narrative proves equally compelling. Fourth-quarter gross margin reached 21.3%, climbing from 14.4% in the comparable period last year. Full-year gross margin registered at 18.9%, a substantial improvement over 2024’s 14.3% figure. Company executives attributed the margin gains to persistent cost optimization initiatives and an enhanced vehicle portfolio mix.
The earnings surprise arrives amid an intense pricing battle within China’s electric vehicle sector. Competitive pressure from domestic rivals has remained fierce, and XPeng shares remain down 12% across the trailing twelve months despite Friday’s positive momentum.
NIO announced its own maiden quarterly profit just last week, supported by record-breaking sales figures. Li Auto, which became profitable before its peers, delivered a modest profit despite experiencing softer sales volumes — highlighting that achieving profitability doesn’t guarantee consistent success in China’s saturated automotive landscape.
Beyond vehicle sales, XPeng has been expanding its technological footprint. The automaker recently introduced its VLA 2.0 autonomous-driving platform, developed using proprietary silicon, with worldwide rollout scheduled for 2027.
The company also intends to introduce three robotaxi variants this year targeting ride-sharing operations throughout China, with pilot programs anticipated to commence later in 2026.
Expansion Into Robotaxis and Humanoid Robotics
XPeng has been strategically repositioning itself as what management describes as a “physical AI company,” advancing into autonomous taxi services and humanoid robotics alongside its primary electric vehicle operations. While these represent longer-term strategic initiatives, they’re beginning to materialize with concrete implementation schedules.
First-quarter 2026 projections, however, signal a near-term deceleration. The company anticipates delivering between 61,000 and 66,000 vehicles, generating revenue in the range of 12.20–13.28 billion yuan. This guidance represents a 16% to 23% contraction compared to the corresponding period in the previous year — marking a considerable retreat from fourth-quarter performance levels.
First Quarter 2026 Outlook Indicates Sequential Slowdown
The subdued Q1 delivery projection mirrors customary seasonal patterns in Chinese automotive demand following robust year-end purchasing activity. XPeng management has not indicated any fundamental business concerns, characterizing the softness as consistent with typical first-quarter dynamics.
XPeng American Depositary Receipts traded 0.8% higher at $19.30 during premarket hours on Friday in response to the earnings announcement.
As the S&P 500 chart (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) shows, the index dropped below the 6,570 level yesterday for the first time in 2026. As a result, the equity market may be on track to post a fourth consecutive weekly decline, closing below its 200-day moving average.
Why Are Equities Falling?
Bearish sentiment is likely being driven by the ongoing military conflict in the Middle East:
→ Elevated oil prices are fuelling expectations of a renewed inflationary surge. This suggests the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for longer (as reinforced by Powell’s remarks this week), putting pressure on both the economy and corporate performance.
→ Investors are also concerned that the United States could become drawn into a prolonged conflict with Iran, which may pose significant challenges for the country, despite efforts by officials to calm market sentiment.
According to Trading Economics:
→ US President Donald Trump stated that the US is not considering deploying ground troops to the Middle East;
→ Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent noted that the Iranian regime could face internal collapse;
→ Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel may refrain from further strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure, suggesting the conflict could end sooner than expected.
Technical Analysis of the S&P 500
On 11 March, we analysed the index chart and noted that the lower boundary of the broader channel was acting as support (point A), while the median line served as resistance (as indicated by the arrow).
Since then, selling pressure has led to:
→ the formation of a steeper descending trendline (R2);
→ a move down to a new low at point B, below the previously mentioned channel boundary.
From a Smart Money Concepts perspective, it is reasonable to assume that price has entered a Sell-Side Liquidity zone. If so, traders should consider the possibility that the recent bearish breakout below the channel may prove to be false. In that case, the S&P 500 could stage a recovery in the coming sessions, potentially moving back towards the R2 trendline.
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Key Highlights
- Q4 fiscal 2026 revenue reached $86.8M, surpassing Wall Street’s $78M forecast
- Adjusted EBITDA posted $2.3M versus consensus expectations of a ~$6M loss
- Fiscal 2027 revenue outlook of $415M–$440M significantly exceeded the $380M analyst consensus
- Shares surged 22% in after-hours trading to $32.97 following an 8.7% regular session gain
- The stock has climbed 524% over the trailing twelve months
Planet Labs PBC delivered impressive quarterly results on Thursday, triggering a substantial rally in extended-hours trading.
The satellite imaging firm posted fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 revenue of $86.8 million, comfortably exceeding the Street’s $78 million projection compiled by FactSet.
The company’s adjusted EBITDA registered at $2.3 million, a notable outperformance compared to the anticipated loss of approximately $6 million. The results marked a decisive win on both top and bottom lines.
Defense-related entities accounted for roughly 60% of fiscal 2026 revenue. Another 25% originated from other government agencies, while commercial customers made up the remainder.
Chief Executive Will Marshall characterized the period as a “transformational year.” Fourth-quarter revenue expanded 41% compared to the prior-year period, while the company closed the fiscal year with a $900 million backlog — representing 79% year-over-year growth.
Shares had already advanced 8.7% during Thursday’s regular session, while the S&P 500 declined 0.3% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.4%.
In after-hours action, PL surged an additional 22% to reach $32.97. The move pushed the stock’s twelve-month return above 524%.
Prior to the announcement, options activity suggested bullish sentiment. Call volume significantly outweighed put volume, indicating traders were positioning for positive news ahead of the release.
Those directional bets proved prescient as the actual results validated the optimistic positioning.
Forward Guidance Exceeds Expectations
For fiscal 2027, Planet Labs issued revenue guidance ranging from $415 million to $440 million. The analyst community had been modeling $380 million, representing a substantial upside surprise.
The company’s EBITDA outlook for fiscal 2027 came in around $5 million — trailing the $16 million Wall Street consensus. However, investors appeared unconcerned with the profitability metric.
Revenue trajectory remains the primary focus for market participants, and the forward guidance satisfied that appetite.
Twelve months ago, Street estimates for fiscal 2027 revenue stood near $330 million. That figure has now climbed toward $430 million.
Business Catalysts and Growth Drivers
Planet highlighted several operational achievements in its earnings release. The company successfully deployed 40 satellites throughout the fiscal year and entered into a research and development collaboration with Google focused on orbital data center technology.
The firm also referenced a recently secured satellite services agreement with Sweden as evidence of continued commercial momentum.
Through Thursday’s market close, PL shares had appreciated 25.81% year-to-date, before factoring in the after-hours movement.
Average daily volume runs approximately 11.5 million shares. Technical analysis indicators were flashing buy signals entering the earnings announcement.
The company commanded a market capitalization of $8.4 billion prior to the extended-session rally.
Trading at $32.97 in after-hours activity, the stock price reflected strong investor approval of the quarterly performance — especially the revenue outperformance and forward outlook.
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