JPMorgan Issues Bold Bitcoin Prediction Amid Crash

Welcome to the US Crypto News Morning Briefing—your essential rundown of the most important developments in crypto for the day ahead.

Grab a coffee and settle in — the market’s been on a rollercoaster lately. Bitcoin is moving, stocks are shifting, and headlines are coming fast. While some investors are hitting pause, others are watching closely, trying to read the signals beneath the noise.

Crypto News of the Day: Bitcoin Slides Below $68,000 Amid Forced Deleveraging

Bitcoin fell below $70,000 on Thursday, before extending a leg down to levels below $68,000, an area last tested on October 28, 2024. The move came as intensified selling swept across crypto markets.

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The decline marks roughly a 45% drop from October highs, fueled by ETF outflows, fading demand, and a “forced deleveraging” phase in futures markets.

“…with demand fading, ETF inflows drying up, and futures markets entering a “forced deleveraging” phase. Analysts say weak volumes and sustained selling are prompting investors to exit at a loss, despite technical indicators signaling oversold conditions,” wrote Walter Deaton.

Weak volumes and sustained selling pressure have prompted many investors to exit positions at a loss, even as technical indicators signal oversold conditions.

Despite the short-term turbulence, JPMorgan is increasingly bullish on Bitcoin’s long-term potential relative to gold.

The bank highlighted that BTC is now trading well below its estimated production cost of $87,000, a level historically considered a soft floor, and that its volatility relative to gold has dropped to record lows.

“…large outperformance of gold vs. Bitcoin since last October, coupled with the sharp rise in gold volatility, has left Bitcoin looking even more attractive compared to gold over the long term,” MarketWatch reported, citing JPMorgan’s quantitative strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou.  

According to the bank, this improved risk-adjusted profile suggests significant upside for investors willing to hold over a multi-year horizon.

Market stress metrics highlight the fragility of the current environment. Glassnode data shows that Bitcoin’s capitulation metric has recorded its second-largest spike in two years. This reflects sharp forced selling and accelerated de-risking by market participants.

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Meanwhile, it is worth noting that Bitcoin has erased all gains since Donald Trump won the election, wiping out a 78% post-election rally and highlighting ongoing volatility.

Crypto Stocks Tumble Amid Bitcoin Sell-Off and Rising Economic Uncertainty

Crypto equities mirror the broader weakness in Bitcoin. Shares of Coinbase, Riot, Marathon, and Strategy fell between 5% and 7% premarket after the drop below $70,000, with ETF holdings also down more than 5%.

The crypto downturn comes amid broader macroeconomic headwinds. US January layoffs surged 205% year-over-year to 108,435, the highest January total since 2009, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

Job cuts were concentrated in transportation — led by UPS — and tech, with Amazon announcing 16,000 layoffs. Healthcare also saw notable reductions.

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Meanwhile, federal job protections were overhauled, with the Trump administration finalizing reforms affecting 50,000 civil service workers. Continuing claims remain elevated at 1.84 million, highlighting ongoing economic uncertainty.

Equity markets are also witnessing a similarly complex backdrop, with the BMO Capital Markets projecting the S&P 500 could reach 7,380 by the end of 2026, implying an 8% expected return.

The firm favors cyclical sectors such as industrials, materials, energy, and financials, while underweighting defensive sectors. Inflation remains a principal risk, though global monetary and fiscal stimulus provide support.

With all these in mind, Bitcoin and broader financial market investors face a delicate balancing act:

• Technical oversold conditions and low relative volatility suggest a long-term opportunity
• Yet, immediate pressures from leveraged positions, ETF outflows, and macro uncertainty continue to weigh on sentiment.

JPMorgan’s analysis points to potential gains for patient holders, but the short-term outlook remains volatile, reflecting a market in the midst of recalibration.

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Here’s a summary of more US crypto news to follow today:

Crypto Equities Pre-Market Overview