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JPMorgan (JPM) cuts Coinbase (COIN) target to $252 after 4Q miss, keeps overweight rating

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JPMorgan (JPM) cuts Coinbase (COIN) target to $252 after 4Q miss, keeps overweight rating

Wall Street analysts from companies including JPMorgan (JPM) and Cannacord lowered their price targets for Coinbase (COIN) stock after the largest publicly traded crypto exchange missed fourth-quarter earnings estimates.

JPMorgan said weak crypto prices and trading activity weighed on volumes and fees. The bank maintained its overweight rating on the crypto exchange, but cut the price target to $252 from $290 in the Thursday report.

The stock, which is down about 40% so far this year, was priced around $150 at publication time in pre-market trading. It closed yesterday at $141.09.

Crypto-linked equities have had a choppy start to the year, broadly tracking the turbulent digital-asset market. Major companies such as Coinbase have seen share prices pressured as crypto trading volumes weakened and token prices slid. Bitcoin , the largest cryptocurrency, remains well below late-2025 peaks and is now down about 25% year-to-date.

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JPMorgan analysts led by Kenneth Worthington said higher operating expenses, up 22% year over year, and a shift toward lower-fee Advanced trading and Coinbase One subscriptions pressured results.

The analysts lowered their forward take-rate assumptions and cited a softer volume and market cap outlook in trimming the price target. The take rate is the percentage of transaction volume the company keeps as revenue.

Coinbase’s scale and profitability stand out in a volatile crypto market, broker Canaccord said, maintaining its buy rating while cutting its price target to $300 from $400 after lowering near-term estimates following the results.

While tumbling spot prices have weighed on the broader industry, the broker said Coinbase remains solidly profitable and is taking incremental market share as it expands its product suite.

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Analysts led by Joseph Vafi pointed to progress on the company’s “Everything Exchange,” growth in USDC commerce use cases and expanding decentralized finance (DeFi) applications on Base and Ethereum, in the report published Thursday.

Deribit, the derivatives exchange it bought during the year, was described as a strategic addition helping drive cross-sell activity outside the U.S. across spot and derivatives.

The analysts said global trading volume and market share are up roughly 100% from a year earlier, with recent records in notional volume supported by activity in gold and silver futures.

Canaccord expects a tougher first quarter for the industry, and sees Coinbase gaining market share and stepping up stock buybacks. It views the stock as near cyclical lows, with the new $300 target based on 22 times its 2027 Ebitda estimate.

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Read more: Coinbase misses Q4 estimates as transaction revenue falls below $1 billion

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Crypto World

$80M Hyperliquid Whale Bet Predicts Bitcoin Crash and Oil Rally

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$80M Hyperliquid Whale Bet Predicts Bitcoin Crash and Oil Rally

Key takeaways:

  • A Hyperliquid whale placed an $80 million bet against Bitcoin and the S&P 500 while going long on Brent crude oil prices.

  • The whale’s history of massive losses and inconsistent signals suggests the trade could fall on the wrong side of the market.

Bitcoin (BTC) showed strength on Wednesday, bouncing back from Tuesday’s $66,000 low after President Donald Trump teased a potential ceasefire in the US and Israel-Iran war. Even with Bitcoin trading above $68,000, one whale used Hyperliquid DEX to place an $80 million bet on a market collapse. 

Traders are now watching closely to see if this whale’s massive position signals a looming Bitcoin price drop.

Hyperliquid whale 0x94d373…c933814 position. Source: CoinGlass

The Hyperliquid whale, linked to address 0x94d373…c933814, carefully built this nearly $80 million leveraged position between Tuesday and Wednesday. The trade includes a $40 million short (sell) on Bitcoin futures near $68,760, a $2 million short on synthetic S&P 500 Index contracts, and a $37 million long (buy) in synthetic Brent oil contracts.

Crude Brent oil (left) vs. Bitcoin/USD (right). Source: TradingView

The whale’s aggregate position leverage stood at 7 times, indicating high conviction. The Bitcoin futures liquidation price was $80,083, while the Brent oil position would be forcefully terminated above $93. The timing of the trade is curious as S&P 500 Index futures gained 4% between Tuesday and Wednesday as traders anticipate the US and Israel-Iran war dissipating over the next few weeks.

On Wednesday, President Trump said “Iran’s New Regime President” is considering a “ceasefire,” although the conditions to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz remain unknown. Iran demands reparations and sovereignty. Thus, one could assume that the Hyperliquid whale is counter-trading the market’s optimistic take, betting that Brent crude oil prices will jump while Bitcoin loses its value.

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This Hyperliquid whale previously lost $40 million

This address belongs to a particularly unlucky whale, or at least one who has been extremely unsuccessful since late January. The Hyperliquid whale apparently uses bots for execution, given the sheer number of small trades that build into huge positions, but it still managed to lose $37 million in its first month of activity in December 2025.

The same user was flagged by X user ‘lookonchain’ on Feb. 5 after taking a massive loss on leveraged bullish bets on Ether (ETH), Bitcoin, Solana (SOL), and XRP (XRP). 

Source: X/lookonchain

According to the analysis, the whale had previously made $25 million in profits from shorts in multiple cryptocurrencies, but decided to flip the position on Feb. 4, resulting in a $40 million loss. There is no way to know exactly what triggered this entity to place those bets, but the event proves that even whales can misinterpret the market.

Related: Warren Buffett bought $17B in US T-bills: A bad omen for Bitcoin price?

The erratic signals from President Trump regarding a potential full-on invasion and the war in Iran leave room for opposing views. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi denied there were talks for a ceasefire but confirmed to Al Jazeera on Tuesday that there was an intention to end the war, according to CNBC.

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Given the history of this whale’s market positioning and its track record of losing trades, it’s possible that the current $80 million bet may fall on the wrong side of the market.