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JPMorgan sees S&P 500 vulnerable as Brent tops $110

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JPMorgan sees S&P 500 vulnerable as Brent tops $110

JPMorgan cuts its S&P 500 target and warns investors are dangerously complacent about Iran war risks, oil above $110, and the hit to growth, earnings, and stocks.

Summary

  • JPMorgan trims its year-end S&P 500 target from 7,500 to 7,200, arguing markets are making a high-risk bet on a quick Middle East resolution.
  • With Brent crude above $110 and shut-ins near record levels, the bank warns each sustained 10% oil rise can shave 15–20 bps from GDP and cut S&P earnings 2–5%.
  • Strategists say a deeper selloff could push the S&P 500 below its 200-day moving average toward 6,000–6,200 as demand destruction and wealth effects bite.

JPMorgan became the latest — and most prominent — Wall Street institution to sound the alarm on Thursday, cutting its year-end S&P 500 price target from 7,500 to 7,200 and warning that equity markets are making a “high-risk assumption” by pricing in a quick resolution to the Middle East conflict. The downgrade, issued as Iranian strikes on Gulf energy infrastructure sent Brent crude surging above $110 per barrel, signals a growing conviction among institutional analysts that the war’s economic fallout has been systematically underpriced.

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“We believe the market is pricing in a quick end to the Middle East conflict and reopening of the Strait, giving a low probability to a potential demand hit,” JPMorgan wrote in its note. “This is a high-risk assumption given that S&P 500 and oil correlations typically turn increasingly more negative after a ~30% oil spike.”

Oil prices have surged more than 46% since the U.S. and Israel launched their initial strikes on Iran, yet the S&P 500 has fallen less than 4% — a divergence that JPMorgan’s strategists view as a sign of dangerous market complacency rather than genuine resilience. While high-risk segments such as software stocks, South Korean equities, and crypto have sold off, broad equity positioning has barely shifted, with investors hedging rather than derisking in earnest.

The bank’s core warning centers not on inflation — the conventional oil shock narrative — but on demand destruction. JPMorgan argues that if the supply disruption persists, “GDP, demand, and revenues will adjust lower through forced demand destruction.” The bank estimates that each sustained 10% increase in oil prices shaves 15 to 20 basis points off GDP growth. If Brent holds near $110, consensus S&P 500 earnings estimates could fall by 2 to 5%.

The structural supply picture compounds the concern. Oil supply shut-ins have already climbed to 8 million barrels per day — the highest on record — and JPMorgan warned that cuts could reach 12 million barrels per day, equivalent to roughly 11% of global production.

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JPMorgan Private Bank strategists Joe Seydl and Kriti Gupta laid out the transmission mechanism in stark terms earlier this week: oil sustained above $90 per barrel risks a 10–15% correction in the S&P 500, with international and emerging markets facing even larger spillover losses due to their higher sensitivity to global growth shocks. At $120 oil, the selling could intensify materially.

The wealth effect adds a secondary channel. With U.S. households holding over $56 trillion in stocks and mutual funds, a sustained equity drawdown would feed back into consumer spending — JPMorgan estimates a 10% drop in the S&P 500 could reduce U.S. consumer spending by approximately 1%. “The combined impact of persistently high oil prices and a bear market in the S&P 500 has a detrimental effect on demand, significantly amplifying the negative impact on growth,” the bank concluded.

If the S&P 500 selloff extends below the 200-day moving average near 6,600, the bank said meaningful support may not emerge until the 6,000–6,200 range. For now, with the war entering a dangerous new energy-infrastructure phase and no diplomatic off-ramp in sight, JPMorgan’s revised target may prove optimistic rather than cautious.

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Crypto World

Nigel Farage Cameo Videos Exploited to Promote Pump and Dump Crypto Scams

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Nigel Farage Cameo Videos Exploited to Promote Pump and Dump Crypto Scams

Nigel Farage has been unknowingly shilling crypto pump and dump schemes. And it only cost scammers £72 a video.

Fraudsters exploited his Cameo profile to purchase personalized clips where Farage read scripts packed with crypto slogans. “To the moon.” “HODL.” Token names dropped in casually. All repurposed as official endorsements for obscure cryptocurrencies that have since collapsed to zero.

Farage charges around £72 per video. He appeared to read the scripts without verifying what he was actually promoting. Retail investors got lured in. The tokens dumped. The Reform UK leader had no idea he was the marketing engine the whole time.

Key Takeaways:
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  • Scammers paid Nigel Farage for Cameo clips to promote dubious tokens like “Stonks Finance” and “Faragecoin.”
  • The endorsed tokens followed a classic pump and dump pattern, crashing shortly after the videos circulated.
  • Regulatory loopholes on platforms like Cameo are creating new risks for retail investor protection.

The Tokens Farage Plugged Have One Thing in Common: They Crashed

The Guardian investigation named the tokens. Stonks Finance. NIG Finance. Trump Mania. Faragecoin.

The playbook was identical every time. Video gets posted on X and Telegram alongside claims that Farage “knows what’s up.” Retail buyers pile in. Token spikes. Insiders dump their holdings. Price collapses to near zero. Late buyers absorb all the losses.

One Stonks Finance video alone triggered a brief speculative frenzy before the inevitable crash.

The damage for retail investors has been severe. The tokens are unregulated. The promoters are anonymous. Recovering funds is basically impossible. And the Cameo clips gave these projects just enough legitimacy to bypass the usual red flags most investors would catch.

Farage Has Not Claimed the Videos Were Financial Advice — But That Was Exactly How They Were Used

Farage has publicly positioned himself as a crypto advocate, citing his debanking experience as a reason for supporting Bitcoin as an anti-authoritarian tool. But the tokens in these videos have nothing to do with Bitcoin.

Whether Farage knew his clips were being used for financial promotion is still unclear. The line between a personal shout-out and a commercial endorsement is deliberately blurry on platforms like Cameo. That grey area is exactly what scammers exploit. He has not publicly addressed the allegations. The videos are still out there.

Regulators are struggling to keep up. The FCA and SEC have strict rules for financial promotions but personalized video content sits in a legal grey zone that enforcement consistently lags behind. ]

The market outcome is already settled. The tokens collapsed. The liquidity is gone. Investors learned an expensive lesson. A paid Cameo clip is not due diligence.

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Sol Rally Toward $100 Fizzles As Solana Competitors Rise

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Sol Rally Toward $100 Fizzles As Solana Competitors Rise

Key takeaways:

  • SOL derivatives signal bearish sentiment as funding rates hit 0% and put (sell) options trade at a premium.

  • While Solana leads in DEX volume, it faces stiff competition from Hyperliquid in the perpetual contracts sector.

Solana’s native token SOL (SOL) faced a 3-day 11% decline after peaking at $97.70 on Monday. Thursday’s move down to $87 triggered $25 million in leveraged long positions being liquidated, negatively impacting trader sentiment. SOL derivatives currently point to fear of further downside and a lack of conviction from bulls, increasing the odds of retesting the $80 level.

SOL perpetual futures annualized funding rate. Source: Laevitas.ch

The SOL perpetual futures annualized funding rate stood near 0% on Thursday, signaling a lack of demand for longs. Bears have dominated leverage demand for the past month, which is highly unusual for crypto markets as traders are historically optimistic. Moreover, the mere cost of capital and exchange risks usually drive the funding rate near 9% under neutral conditions.

SOL options markets confirm that professional traders are not comfortable that the $87 level will hold for long.

SOL 30-day options delta skew (put-call) at Deribit. Source: Laevitas.ch

The delta skew (put-call) jumped to 12% on Thursday, meaning put options traded at a premium relative to equivalent call instruments. Whales and market makers are not comfortable holding downside price exposure, even as SOL trades 70% below its all-time high. Part of this bearishness can be explained by weaker demand for the decentralized applications (DApps) industry.

Solana weekly network fees (green) vs. DApps revenue (pink), USD. Source: DefiLlama

Solana DApps revenue dropped to its lowest level in 18 months at $22 million, down from $36 million two months prior. The issue is not exclusive to Solana, as DApps revenue declined by 52% on BNB Chain over the same period, but increased competition in perpetual contracts trading is somewhat concerning as Hyperliquid dominates the industry.

Blockchains ranked by 7-day perpetual contracts volumes. Source: DefiLlama

While Solana remains the undisputed leader in decentralized exchange (DEX) volumes, driven by Pump, Raydium and Orca, the situation in synthetic derivatives is reversed. Blockchains specifically designed to handle perpetual contracts trading, such as Hyperliquid, Edgex, Zklighter and Aster, handle more than 80% of the total volume.

Related: Altseason is dead, expect shorter cycles and ‘violent’ rotations: Crypto exec

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Weak onchain data and bearish derivatives delay SOL price recovery

The launch of an officially licensed S&P 500 Index perpetual futures contract on Hyperliquid has likely contributed to the weaker demand for SOL. The product offer, available for eligible users based outside of the United States, was developed by Trade[XYZ] and adds to the aggregate tokenized equities markets that nears $1.1 billion in assets.

SOL’s current $51 billion market capitalization represents a 42% discount relative to competitor BNB (BNB) at $88 billion. However, the Solana network’s total value locked (TVL) stood at $6.9 billion, while BNB Chain held $5.7 billion in TVL. More importantly, Solana’s 30-day network fees totaled $20.8 million, while BNB Chain had $9.1 million in fees, according to DefiLlama data.

Multiple companies that opted for a digital asset treasury strategy focused on SOL, such as Forward Industries (FWDI US) and DeFi Development Corp. (DFDV US) are underwater in their holdings, adding to the negative sentiment. Ultimately, the weakness in Solana onchain activity and lack of enthusiasm in derivatives markets hint that a bull run above $110 will take longer than anticipated.