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Jump Trading to take small stakes in prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi: Bloomberg

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Jump Trading to take small stakes in prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi: Bloomberg

Jump Trading plans to take a small stake in each of the prediction-market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket, Bloomberg reported on Monday, citing people with knowledge of the matter.

The trading powerhouse, which has a significant focus on cryptocurrency, will gain the stakes in exchange for providing liquidity on the two platforms.

Jump is set to take a fixed amount of equity in Kalshi, while its stake in Polymarket will grow over time depending on the trading capacity that the firm provides to the platform’s U.S. operation.

Kalshi and Polymarket are the two most prominent prediction-market platforms, having both acquired multibillion dollar valuations. They rely on market makers like Jump to put up the money to take the other side of customers’ trades. Market makers then profit from the difference in price movements.

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Jump expanded into prediction-market trading in recent months, recruiting 20 staffers in recent months for that business, according to Bloomberg.

The firms did not immediately respond to CoinDesk’s request for further comment.

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Crypto World

Bitcoin, Ethereum, Crypto News & Price Indexes

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Bitcoin, Ethereum, Crypto News & Price Indexes

Bitcoin’s sharp correction at the start of the month may represent a critical “halfway point” in the current bear market, according to Kaiko Research.

Bitcoin (BTC) fell to $59,930 on Friday, marking its lowest level since October 2024, before the re-election of US President Donald Trump, according to TradingView data

The decline suggests the market has moved out of the euphoric post-halving phase and into what Kaiko described as a historically typical bear market period that lasts about 12 months before a new accumulation phase begins.

In a research note shared with Cointelegraph on Monday, Kaiko said Bitcoin’s 32% crash was the most significant correction since the 2024 Bitcoin halving and may mark the “halfway point” of the current bear market.

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“Analysis of on-chain metrics and comparative performance across tokens reveals a market approaching critical technical support levels that will determine whether the four-year cycle framework remains intact,” Kaiko said.

Bitcoin halving cycles, all-time chart. Source: Kaiko Research

Related: Trend Research cuts ETH exposure by over 400K as liquidation risk rises

Kaiko’s report highlighted several emerging onchain bear market signals, including a 30% drop in aggregate spot crypto trading volume across the 10 leading centralized exchanges, from around $1 trillion in October 2025 down to $700 billion in November.

At the same time, combined Bitcoin and Ether (ETH) futures open interest declined from $29 billion to $25 billion over the past week, a 14% reduction that Kaiko said reflects ongoing deleveraging.

Open interest for BTC and ETH futures, top 10 exchanges. Source: Kaiko Research

While Bitcoin has realigned with the historical four-year halving cycle since the beginning of the year, determining the depth of the current bear market is complex, as “many catalysts that fueled BTC’s rally to $126,000 are still in effect,” said Shawn Young, chief analyst, MEXC Research.

“With oversold indicators emerging on multiple timeframes, the rebound conversation around BTC is more a question of when, not if,” Young said, adding that Bitcoin may be entering a new cycle that will only become clear over the next year.

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Related: Binance adds $300M in Bitcoin to SAFU reserve during market dip

Is $60,000 the bear market bottom?

The key question for investors is whether the dip to $60,000 represents the low of the current bear market. The level roughly aligns with Bitcoin’s 200-week moving average, which has historically acted as long-term support.

Still, more market volatility is expected in the absence of crypto-specific market catalysts, Nicolai Sondergaard, research analyst at crypto intelligence platform Nansen, told Cointelegraph, adding:

“With that said, it is still very hard to say if it means we are going back to the conventional 4-year cycle. I have seen many prominent figures in the space air the idea, but equally many who do not think so.”

However, Kaiko pointed to a 52% retracement from Bitcoin’s previous all-time high being “unusually shallow” compared to previous bear market cycles.

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A 60% to 68% retracement would “align more closely” with historical drawdowns, which implies a Bitcoin cycle bottom around $40,000 to $50,000, Kaiko said.

Source: Michaël van de Poppe

Still, some market participants argue that $60,000 already marked a local bottom. Analyst and MN Capital founder Michaël van de Poppe called the crash to $60,000 the local market bottom for Bitcoin’s price, citing a record low in investor sentiment and a critical low in the relative strength index, which sank to values last seen in 2018 and 2020.

Magazine: Would Bitcoin survive a 10-year power outage?