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Kalshi gets temporary Nevada ban in dispute over sports betting

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U.S. Federal Reserve researchers sing praises of prediction markets

Kalshi is now under a two-week restraining order barring bets in Nevada while a legal debate proceeds over the longer-term status of prediction markets there.

The First Judicial District Court of Nevada issued a 14-day order on Friday, directing the platform to cease offering event contracts in that state. A federal appeals court cleared the way on Thursday for state regulators to seek the order, which the Nevada Gaming Control Board first sought in 2025, when it told Kalshi to cease its sports contracts.

Kalshi had argued that the case should be moved to federal court, but the appeals court sent it back to Nevada, despite the company’s claim that it “faces imminent harm” from the state’s actions.

On Friday, the state court halted Kalshi’s sports, entertainment and election bets as the parties continue to argue over the relative authority of the state regulators to govern event-contract businesses.

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The Nevada judge determined that the gaming board can’t properly function under these circumstances, and “an unlicensed participant beyond the Board’s control, such as Kalshi, obstructs the Board’s ability to fulfill its statutory functions.” The court is following up with an April 3 hearing.

A spokesman for Kalshi declined to comment on the Nevada development. Kalshi is being sued or prosecuted in several states on similar grounds. Earlier this week, Arizona’s attorney general charged Kalshi with running an unlicensed gambling business and offering illegal election wagering.

Meanwhile, Chairman Mike Selig of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission is insisting that his federal agency actually has proper authority over the markets, not the states. He filed a court brief stating that argument and has repeated it in a number of recent public appearances, promising he’ll fight the states on that point. He’s also begun moving on establishing CFTC policies in prediction markets.

Federal regulation generally supersedes state regulation, but the courts may need to weigh in on who is properly entitled to the jurisdiction. Major League Baseball, for one, has thrown in with the CFTC, signing a memorandum of understanding this week on oversight of prediction markets and also inking a partnership with Polymarket.

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Read More: CFTC’s Selig opens legal dispute against states getting in way of prediction markets

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Covenant AI Exits Bittensor Amid Decentralization Concerns; TAO Drops 18%

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Crypto Breaking News

Covenant AI, a developer operating on Bittensor’s subnet ecosystem, announced on Friday that it is leaving the decentralized AI network, accusing governance of not being meaningfully distributed and questioning whether the project can sustain its decentralization claims. In a post on X, Covenant AI founder Sam Dare said the team could no longer build on or raise for Bittensor because governance wasn’t truly distributed. “It is decentralization theatre,” Dare wrote, alleging that Jacob Steeves—known as Const—maintains effective control over the governance triad, resists meaningful transfers of authority, and deploys changes unilaterally without process or consensus.

The dispute centers on the core selling point of Bittensor: true decentralization. Covenant AI contends that Steeves wields outsized influence over governance and network operations, an accusation Steeves has denied. Bittensor describes its governance as a transitional framework, featuring a “Triumvirate” of Opentensor Foundation employees alongside a senate, rather than a fully open, fully distributed model. The company’s documentation frames this as a staged approach rather than a completed, decentralized system.

Key takeaways

  • Covenant AI is exiting Bittensor, publicly challenging the project’s claim of decentralization and accusing governance of concentrated power under a Triumvirate-led structure.
  • The core accusation centers on control over governance and network operations, with Covenant AI alleging unilateral decision-making and resistance to meaningful authority transfers.
  • In response, Bittensor founder Jacob Steeves denies suspending subnet operations or granting special privileges, and says dissenting actions are either mischaracterized or misinterpreted—he also contends that certain token-related moves were ordinary market activity visible on-chain.
  • The dispute has coincided with a material move in TAO’s price and trading volume, reflecting broader investor attention as the governance rift unfolds.

Governance under the lens: what changed and what stayed the same

The heart of Covenant AI’s claim is that the governance design of Bittensor—ostensibly built to be open and composite—operates in practice as a closed system. Covenant AI argues that the Triumvirate, comprising key Opentensor Foundation figures, plus a senate, retains root permissions and can steer network modifications without broad consensus. Dare framed the arrangement as incompatible with the decentralization narrative that attracted builders and financiers to the project, suggesting that the structure undermines the very premise of distributed governance.

Steeves, for his part, pushes back on the description of centralized control. In his public responses, he argued that he does not wield privileges beyond those of ordinary TAO token holders and that he cannot suspend subnet emissions. He also contends that any large token movements he has executed were disclosed through on-chain activity and thus transparent to the community. In a Friday X post, Steeves responded to Covenant AI’s claims by stating he had liquidated some of his “alpha holdings” on subnets that were not actively running or were on burn-heavy code, asserting that such actions alter emissions in a manner consistent with typical market dynamics on Bittensor.

Nevertheless, Covenant AI asserts that governance friction has tangible effects on project momentum. Emissions controls and moderation rights are among the specific levers cited as evidence of centralized influence, with Covenant AI describing moves as attempts to pressure or stifle the subnet’s development trajectory. Steeves counters by noting that moderation permissions were temporarily restricted and later restored, and he emphasizes that changes in on-chain token economics would be visible to observers. He also argues that his actions fall within the rights of token holders and do not amount to a covert governance coup.

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Market signals and on-chain behavior amid the dispute

The governance dispute has spilled into market sentiment around TAO, Bittensor’s native token. TAO’s price had been under pressure, slipping roughly 18% over the preceding 24 hours as of Friday morning in market data cited by Cointelegraph. The selling momentum intensified in the day leading up to Covenant AI’s departure announcement, with on-chain sell volume hitting a level not seen since December 2024. Analysts framed the price and flow dynamics as a potential reflection of investors adjusting exposure to a project undergoing a governance upheaval.

External observers echoed the sense that the departure could be more than a PR dispute. One crypto analyst noted on X that the timing and scale of Covenant AI’s exit appeared deliberate, describing it as a calculated move rather than a coincidence. While market dynamics can be noisy, the episode underscores how governance tensions in decentralized projects can translate into tangible liquidity and price reactions, particularly when a builder with an active subnet exits.

Cointelegraph sought comment from Covenant AI and Bittensor for responses to the evolving narrative but did not receive official remarks by publication time. The broader market context remains relevant: governance design that emphasizes decentralization is increasingly scrutinized as multiple teams seek to attract talent and funding without compromising core distributed principles. The exchange between Covenant AI and Steeves—along with on-chain activity tied to token emissions and governance permissions—provides a live case study in how decentralization ambitions interact with practical governance controls.

Broader implications for decentralization in practice

Industry observers note that the Covenant AI episode highlights a broader, ongoing debate about the practical meaning of decentralization in long-running blockchain and Web3 projects. David and Daniil Liberman, co-founders of the Gonka protocol, described a tension that will resonate with builders across ecosystems: if a project’s infrastructure can be used against it because control rests with a concentrated subset of actors, does the model remain genuinely decentralized? Their assessment emphasizes the need for governance that can withstand complex, real-world pressures without becoming opaque or inert in the face of conflicts between contributors and governance stewards.

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The debate also harks back to earlier public moments in Bittensor’s story. For instance, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang publicly celebrated Covenant AI’s milestone in training a decentralized large language model on Bittensor Subnet 3, calling it a remarkable technical achievement. That historic spotlight contrasted with the current governance friction, illustrating the dual aspects of decentralization narratives: the technical frontier that attracts builders, and the governance framework that must sustain it without central choke points.

As the community digests the tensions, readers should watch for how Bittensor’s governance documents evolve and whether any reforms are pursued to broaden participation or formalize oversight. The resolution, or lack thereof, will influence not only Covenant AI’s future on the network but also how other builders evaluate the feasibility of heavily multi-party, permissioned decentralization models in practice. Observers will be mindful of potential new on-chain disclosures, governance proposals, or changes to subnet permissions that could redefine participation rules for developers and token holders alike.

In this moment, the core question remains: can a decentralized AI network reconcile rapid innovation with a governance framework that remains genuinely open to diverse contributors, or will episodes like Covenant AI’s departure redefine decentralization as a continuous negotiation between ambitious builders and centralized control points?

What to watch next: keep an eye on any updates to Bittensor’s governance structure, changes in subnet emission policies, and new participation rules for subnets. The outcome will influence how other multi-stakeholder networks balance openness with accountability, and it will shape investor sentiment around projects that promise decentralization as a core value proposition.

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Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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Volatility compression grips crypto markets ahead of U.S. inflation report: Crypto Markets Today

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Volatility compression grips crypto markets ahead of U.S. inflation report: Crypto Markets Today

The crypto market held steady on Friday, with bitcoin trading little changed at $71,700 and ether (ETH) at $2,180, extending the low-volatility price action that has characterized the past few months.

Daily Bollinger bands, a technical analysis tool that measures market volatility, are at their narrowest since early 2024. In the past, such a tight range — bitcoin has held between $63,000 and $75,000 since early February — has ended with a 40% move in price, according crypto analyst Eric Crown.

A breakout above $75,000 in bitcoin’s case would trigger upside momentum by trapping traders who are short and need to buy at market prices to cover their positions, while a short-term move below $70,000 will liquidate around $200 million worth of long positions that are betting on the breakout, according to CoinGlass’ liquidation heatmap.

One key catalyst on Friday will be the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) data. March inflation is estimated at 3.3% year-on-year, driven by surging energy prices. High inflation figures tend to spur upside price action in the U.S. dollar, which could weigh on risk assets like bitcoin.

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Derivatives positioning

  • Open interest (OI) in bitcoin futures increased by 1%, with average perpetual funding rates on major exchanges at their highest since Feb. 4. This shows a strengthening investor appetite for bullish exposure.
  • Other major cryptocurrencies were mixed. OI increased slightly in XRP (XRP) while holding flat in ether (ETH) and solana (SOL). HYPE and AVAX are other standouts, displaying a bullish combination of OI growth and positive funding rates.
  • The privacy-focused ZEC, meanwhile, shows OI growth and negative rates, a sign that traders are continuing to short futures and hedge downside risks even as the spot price rallies. ZEC’s price rose to nearly $400, the highest since Jan. 28.
  • There seems to be no end to the downtrend in BTC’s 30-day implied volatility index, BVIV. The measure has slipped to 45%, indicating market calm. It has dropped in a near-straight line from 58% on March 31. Ether’s volatility index shows a similar pattern.
  • The decline in volatility is largely led by ETF-related flows. “The ETF complex has created a feedback loop: institutions sell calls for yield, which suppresses upside vol, which makes selling more calls even more attractive. The impact is still subtle, but the direction of travel is clear. Bitcoin’s options market is maturing into a structurally skewed market, just like equities,” STS Digital’s CEO Maxime Seiler told CoinDesk.
  • The implied volatility term structure is flat for the next six months and then rises from September, suggesting the market is prepping for a quiet few months in between.
  • On Deribit, BTC and ETH options continue to display put skews, although it’s much weaker than a week ago as traders chase upside bets, particularly the BTC call option at the $80,000 strike.

Token talk

  • CoinDesk’s DeFi Select Index (DFX) is the best-performing benchmark on Friday, rising by 0.38% while the bitcoin-dominant CoinDesk 5 (CD5) is down by a quarter of a percent.
  • The CoinDesk Computing Select Index (CPUS) is the worst performer, losing 1.4% after it was dragged down by bittensor (TAO), which lost more than 12% since midnight UTC after Covenant AI, one of the network’s largest subnet developers, said it was leaving Bittensor.
  • “The entire premise of Bittensor, the promise that drew builders, miners, validators, and investors into this ecosystem, is that no single entity controls it,” Covenant AI founder Sam Dare wrote on X. “That promise is a lie.”
  • One token that shrugged off broader crypto market apathy was DASH, which surged more than 19% since midnight UTC, contributing to a 24-hour gain of 34% as traders rotated back into the privacy sector.

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Japan regulates crypto assets as financial instruments

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Japan, Cryptocurrency Investment

The Japanese government amended the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act on Friday to classify crypto assets as financial instruments.

The amendment also bans insider trading and other activities that involve buying and selling based on undisclosed information, Nikkei reported.

The amended act will also now require cryptocurrency “issuers” to be more transparent and disclose information once a year.

Japan’s Financial Services Agency has previously regulated crypto assets under the Payment and Settlement Act, citing their potential use as a means of payment. However, the regulations and classifications have been updated to reflect increasing institutional investment in the asset class.

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By reclassifying crypto as a financial instrument rather than just a payment method, Japan is moving crypto out of the experimental payments category and into the same league as its stock market.

Japan, Cryptocurrency Investment
Source: Startale Group CEO Sota Watanabe

Crypto under the TradFi umbrella

“We will expand the supply of growth capital in response to changes in financial and capital markets, and ensure market fairness, transparency, and investor protection,” said Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama at a press conference after the Cabinet meeting. 

Fines and sentences for unregistered crypto exchanges have also increased under the amendment. 

Related: Prediction markets are testing legal limits in strict Asian markets

Japan signaled that it was bringing crypto under the same umbrella as traditional finance in January when Katayama said, “To ensure citizens benefit from digital and blockchain-based assets, the role of exchanges and market infrastructure will be essential.” 

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The government backed plans in December to significantly reduce Japan’s maximum tax rate on crypto profits, with a flat rate of 20% across the board.  

Crypto ETFs coming to Japan

Japan is also planning to legalize crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs) by 2028, marking a major shift toward mainstream crypto adoption, according to a January report. 

Major financial groups, including Nomura Holdings and SBI Holdings, are among the first companies expected to develop crypto-linked exchange-traded products

Asia Express: Phantom Bitcoin checks, China tracks tax on blockchain

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