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Kalshi uses ‘death carve-out’ to avoid paying out on Ali Khamenei ousting

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Kalshi uses 'death carve-out' to avoid paying out on Ali Khamenei ousting

Prediction market Kalshi apparently allowed traders to bet on the ousting of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, racked up $54 million in trades, then voided the result the moment he was killed in a US-Israeli airstrike.

Kalshi listed its “Ali Khamenei out as Supreme Leader?” prediction market contract before he was killed on Saturday.

Although a fiery death at the business end of a US or Israeli missile would certainly, in most people’s eyes, count as being “out,” Kalshi’s rules technically contained a death carve-out.

Specifically, the fine print specified that if Khamenei’s removal happened via death, the contract wouldn’t pay out.

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Traders were predictably furious. “Getting rugged on a 100% correct prediction because of a fine-print ‘death carveout’ is wild,” one user wrote on Kalshi’s Discord.

“What you’re doing is stealing,” wrote another.

Critics accused Kalshi of trying to have its cake and eat it too by platforming a contract in the first place that involved bets on human death, then hiding behind compliance language when reality hit. 

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It had the option all along to not list the market for trading, after all. It decided to list it and accept trades.

Using crypto to profit from death

Even though the market involved potential death, Kalshi promoted it on social media for days. Users wagered $54 million on it.

US Senator Chris Murphy called it “insane this is legal.”

Ex-SEC Chief of Staff Amanda Fischer told NPR that prediction markets are “promoting opportunities to bet on events that can only be seen as a proxy for war or assassination… this betting market shouldn’t exist in the first place” 

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Six Democratic senators had already urged the CFTC in late February to ban contracts tied to anyone’s death. Wagers on Khamenei’s killing made their letter prophetic.

On Polymarket, Kalshi’s less-regulated offshore competitor, the numbers were uglier.

Roughly half a billion dollars changed hands on contracts tied to when US forces would strike Iran which, again, has obvious ramifications on human life.

Crypto keeps building death markets

Sadly, crypto wagers on death are nothing new. Early concepts of cryptographic assassination markets have circulated since at least a 1995 essay by cypherpunk Jim Bell.

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In 2018, crypto prediction platform Augur launched with assassination markets appearing almost immediately. 

Read more: Lord Miles wants YouTubers to help settle Polymarket scandal

In September 2025, Polymarket hosted a multimillion-dollar market on whether YouTuber Lord Miles would survive a 40-day desert fast . Trading odds crashed when fears spread that he had actually died.

Hivemind progenitor Paul Sztorc repeated his multi-year call for a “fully peer-to-peer prediction market system that cannot be shut off by anyone under any circumstances.”

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More recently, in January 2026, an anonymous Polymarket trader made $400,000 on a suspiciously well-timed bet on Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro’s downfall.

In February, Israeli authorities indicted two people for using IDF classified information to bet on Polymarket during military conflict last June between Israel and Iran.

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Chainlink connects Coinbase cbBTC to Monad DeFi

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Chainlink connects Coinbase cbBTC to Monad DeFi

Chainlink has enabled Coinbase cbBTC bridging to Monad, unlocking over $5B in Bitcoin-backed liquidity for decentralized finance applications.

Summary

  • Chainlink CCIP will support bridging cbBTC from Base to Monad.
  • More than $5B in Bitcoin-backed liquidity can enter Monad DeFi.
  • Developers gain access to BTC-based lending and trading tools.

Chainlink (LINK) is now supporting the bridging of Coinbase Wrapped BTC from Base to Monad using its Cross-Chain Interoperability Protocol. 

According to Chainlink’s March 2 announcement, the rollout will open up new pathways for Bitcoin-backed liquidity across decentralized finance applications.

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cbBTC enters the Monad ecosystem

The new bridge makes it possible for users to deploy cbBTC in lending, trading, and structured finance products on Monad. Early adopters include Curvance and Neverland, which are launching markets built around the token.

Coinbase issues cbBTC, which is backed 1:1 by Bitcoin that is kept in custody. More than $5 billion in cbBTC is currently in circulation across networks such as Ethereum, Base, Solana, and Arbitrum.

Thanks to the integration, developers can build products that use Bitcoin as a base asset and benefit from Monad’s fast settlement and cheap fees. These products include derivatives connected to Bitcoin prices, deeper spot markets, automated trading routes, and lending pools based on Bitcoin.

Chainlink says its CCIP system has already supported over $28 trillion in on-chain transaction value, offering a standardized security framework for cross-chain transfers.

Keone Hon of the Monad Foundation said the move gives builders a strong asset to design around. Johann Eid of Chainlink Labs added that the system allows billions of dollars in cbBTC to move across networks with institutional-grade protection.

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What this means for Chainlink, Coinbase, and DeFi

The partnership strengthens Chainlink’s position as a leading provider of cross-chain infrastructure. The network controls a sizable portion of the oracle market, with over $100 billion in total value secured.

Its reach has also been extended beyond retail DeFi through recent partnerships with institutional networks. Coinbase continues to use cbBTC to connect traditional custody with on-chain activity.

The expansion to Monad supports its goal of giving users more ways to earn yield, borrow, and trade without selling their Bitcoin. cbBTC is already used in several lending and yield platforms, with some offering returns of up to 3%.

Monad will benefit from direct access to large Bitcoin-backed liquidity pools. The network, which targets up to 10,000 transactions per second and sub-second finality, is designed for high-frequency finance and capital-intensive applications.

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With more than $5 billion in cbBTC now able to reach Monad, industry watchers expect higher activity in Bitcoin-based DeFi products, especially in lending, trading, and structured finance markets.

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Oil and Gold Surge as Middle East Tensions Rattle Global Markets

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Josh Gilbert Market Analyst At Etoro

Editor’s note: Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are triggering a rapid market reaction, with oil and gold rallying while regional equities reel from disruptions. This editor’s briefing previews the immediate market response as UAE exchanges pause trading and investors weigh reopening scenarios. Market color from Josh Gilbert of eToro underscores the uncertainty and the central question: how long this disruption lasts and whether we see escalation or de-escalation in the coming days.

Markets hate uncertainty, and right now investors are facing one of the most unpredictable geopolitical backdrops in years. The key question is not just what has happened, but how long this disruption lasts and whether we see escalation or de-escalation in the coming days.

Rising Middle East tensions push oil and gold higher, rattling regional equities and shaping the near-term global outlook as markets await any de-escalation.

Key points

  • Oil prices surged to around US$82 per barrel, with Brent rising on disruption fears in the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Gold climbed above US$5,350 per ounce, reinforcing safe-haven demand amid geopolitical risk.
  • Abu Dhabi and Dubai exchanges were closed, highlighting the seriousness of the situation and uncertainty around reopening.
  • Risk assets weakened as capital rotated toward defensive positions, awaiting clarity on escalation or de-escalation.

Why this matters

As energy and precious metal prices respond to geopolitical risk, the near-term outlook for regional economies and global inflation remains sensitive to sentiment and policy signals. The UAE’s diversified, services-driven economy may weather disruption better than markets fear, but confidence and capital flows could face headwinds until de-escalation appears likely.

What to watch next

  • Reopening trajectory for UAE exchanges after the pause, with the next 48–72 hours critical for sentiment.
  • Oil price movement and its potential impact on transport costs and global inflation.
  • Gold’s continued safe-haven demand versus any shift in risk appetite.
  • Any changes in UAE tourism, aviation, and real estate activity tied to connectivity and confidence.

Disclosure: The content below is a press release provided by the company/PR representative. It is published for informational purposes.

Oil and Gold Surge as Middle East Tensions Rattle Global Markets

Abu Dhabi, UAE – 2 March 2026: Escalating tensions in the Middle East have sent shockwaves through global markets, pushing oil and gold sharply higher and raising fresh questions about the near-term outlook for regional equities.

Josh Gilbert Market Analyst At Etoro
Josh Gilbert Market Analyst At Etoro

Josh Gilbert, Market Analyst at eToro, said: “Markets hate uncertainty, and right now investors are facing one of the most unpredictable geopolitical backdrops in years. The key question is not just what has happened, but how long this disruption lasts and whether we see escalation or de-escalation in the coming days.”

The Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange (ADX) and Dubai Financial Market (DFM) remain closed on Monday and Tuesday in a rare move outside scheduled holidays, highlighting the seriousness of the situation. Investors are now focused on what reopening could look like once trading resumes.

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“History shows that outcomes vary widely,” Gilbert added. “When Turkey suspended trading after the 2023 earthquake, markets rallied strongly on reopening. When Russia halted trading after invading Ukraine, the outcome was far more severe. For UAE markets, the next 48 to 72 hours will be critical.”

Oil in Focus

Oil has been the immediate flashpoint. Brent crude surged as much as 13% to around US$82 per barrel, driven by fears of disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, which carries roughly 20% of the world’s crude oil and LNG supply.

“Even without a full closure of the Strait of Hormuz, disruption to tanker traffic is enough to rattle energy markets,” said Gilbert. “Conflicting signals from Iran have added to the uncertainty investors are trying to price in.”

There are, however, short-term buffers in place. The global oil market entered this period with relative oversupply, and OPEC+ had already announced a production increase of 206,000 barrels per day for April. Major consumers such as the US and China also hold substantial strategic reserves, while Saudi Arabia has pipeline capacity to reroute some exports.

“These measures provide short-term cushioning,” Gilbert noted. “But if tensions persist, sustained higher oil prices will filter through to transport costs and ultimately inflation globally.”

Gold Surges, Risk Assets Weaken

Gold has once again acted as the clearest safe haven, climbing above US$5,350 per ounce and gaining roughly 22% year-to-date.

“Gold remains the asset investors turn to in times of geopolitical stress,” Gilbert said. “Unless we see meaningful de-escalation, that safe-haven demand is unlikely to fade.”

Meanwhile, higher-risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, have come under pressure as investors rotate toward defensive positions.

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“In risk-off environments, capital typically flows to traditional safe havens rather than more volatile assets,” he added.

Direct Impact on the UAE

For the UAE, the implications extend beyond market volatility. Real estate, tourism, aviation, and retail — key pillars of economic diversification — are particularly exposed.

Dubai averaged approximately 13,000 home sales per month last year at an average price of AED 2.5 million, largely supported by foreign investment and expatriate inflows. With around 350,000 new units expected to come to market over the next two years, any sustained hit to confidence or capital flows could challenge demand absorption.

Tourism is another critical sector. Travel and tourism accounted for around 13% of UAE GDP in 2025. With hundreds of flights cancelled and temporary airport disruptions reported, the impact is already being felt.

“Dubai’s retail and hospitality ecosystem depends on connectivity,” Gilbert said. “Any prolonged disruption to airspace or tourism confidence will weigh on near-term growth.”

While higher oil prices may offer fiscal support, the UAE economy today is far more diversified and services-driven than it was a decade ago.

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“That means disrupted tourism, grounded flights, and shaken investor sentiment matter more than ever,” Gilbert explained.

Staying Focused on the Long Term

Gilbert cautioned against reactive decision-making.

“The instinct in moments like this is to act, but for most long-term investors, doing very little is often the wiser approach. Selling into panic rarely proves to be the right decision in hindsight.”

He concluded: “There is room for volatility when UAE markets reopen, particularly as very little geopolitical risk had been priced in. However, if de-escalation emerges quickly, the long-term fundamentals of the UAE — strong infrastructure, a pro-business regulatory framework, and its role as a regional hub — remain intact. Short-term turbulence does not undo decades of structural progress.”

About eToro

eToro is the trading and investing platform that empowers you to invest, share and learn. Founded in 2007 with the vision of a world where everyone can trade and invest in a simple and transparent way, today eToro has 40 million registered users from 75 countries.

eToro believes in the power of shared knowledge and that investors can become more successful by investing together. The platform has built a collaborative investment community designed to provide users with the tools they need to grow their knowledge and wealth. On eToro, users can hold a range of traditional and innovative assets and choose how they invest: trade directly, invest in a portfolio, or copy other investors.

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Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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Can US Lawmakers Pass Crypto Market Structure Before the Midterms?

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Can US Lawmakers Pass Crypto Market Structure Before the Midterms?

While US Senate lawmakers have been working to pass a comprehensive digital asset market structure bill since July, some industry observers in Washington say progress could be “on hold” due to government gridlock.

Since the House of Representatives passed the CLARITY Act last summer and sent the legislation to the other chamber, lawmakers have faced a historically long government shutdown, partisan divides on ethics and debates over stablecoin yield that have likely slowed progress on the bill, which could be further hampered by the upcoming US midterm elections in November.

Eight months ahead of the midterms, one version of the market structure bill focused on commodities regulations has passed the Senate Agriculture Committee, while members of the Senate Banking Committee have yet to address a bill on securities laws and regulations after the panel cancelled a markup in January.