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Kalshi uses ‘death carve-out’ to avoid paying out on Ali Khamenei ousting

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Kalshi uses 'death carve-out' to avoid paying out on Ali Khamenei ousting

Prediction market Kalshi apparently allowed traders to bet on the ousting of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, racked up $54 million in trades, then voided the result the moment he was killed in a US-Israeli airstrike.

Kalshi listed its “Ali Khamenei out as Supreme Leader?” prediction market contract before he was killed on Saturday.

Although a fiery death at the business end of a US or Israeli missile would certainly, in most people’s eyes, count as being “out,” Kalshi’s rules technically contained a death carve-out.

Specifically, the fine print specified that if Khamenei’s removal happened via death, the contract wouldn’t pay out.

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Traders were predictably furious. “Getting rugged on a 100% correct prediction because of a fine-print ‘death carveout’ is wild,” one user wrote on Kalshi’s Discord.

“What you’re doing is stealing,” wrote another.

Critics accused Kalshi of trying to have its cake and eat it too by platforming a contract in the first place that involved bets on human death, then hiding behind compliance language when reality hit. 

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It had the option all along to not list the market for trading, after all. It decided to list it and accept trades.

Using crypto to profit from death

Even though the market involved potential death, Kalshi promoted it on social media for days. Users wagered $54 million on it.

US Senator Chris Murphy called it “insane this is legal.”

Ex-SEC Chief of Staff Amanda Fischer told NPR that prediction markets are “promoting opportunities to bet on events that can only be seen as a proxy for war or assassination… this betting market shouldn’t exist in the first place” 

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Six Democratic senators had already urged the CFTC in late February to ban contracts tied to anyone’s death. Wagers on Khamenei’s killing made their letter prophetic.

On Polymarket, Kalshi’s less-regulated offshore competitor, the numbers were uglier.

Roughly half a billion dollars changed hands on contracts tied to when US forces would strike Iran which, again, has obvious ramifications on human life.

Crypto keeps building death markets

Sadly, crypto wagers on death are nothing new. Early concepts of cryptographic assassination markets have circulated since at least a 1995 essay by cypherpunk Jim Bell.

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In 2018, crypto prediction platform Augur launched with assassination markets appearing almost immediately. 

Read more: Lord Miles wants YouTubers to help settle Polymarket scandal

In September 2025, Polymarket hosted a multimillion-dollar market on whether YouTuber Lord Miles would survive a 40-day desert fast . Trading odds crashed when fears spread that he had actually died.

Hivemind progenitor Paul Sztorc repeated his multi-year call for a “fully peer-to-peer prediction market system that cannot be shut off by anyone under any circumstances.”

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More recently, in January 2026, an anonymous Polymarket trader made $400,000 on a suspiciously well-timed bet on Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro’s downfall.

In February, Israeli authorities indicted two people for using IDF classified information to bet on Polymarket during military conflict last June between Israel and Iran.

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Crypto World

Balancer Labs Shuts Down, Protocol to Continue

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Balancer Labs Shuts Down, Protocol to Continue

Balancer Labs, the team behind the decentralized finance protocol Balancer, is shutting down after mounting financial pressure and a $116 million hack in November, with executives proposing continuation of the protocol under a leaner, more cost-effective structure.

“After careful consideration, I have decided to wind down Balancer Labs. This is not a decision I take lightly,” one of Balancer Protocol’s founders, Fernando Martinelli, said on Monday, adding that Balancer Labs has become a “liability rather than an asset to the protocol,” as it has been operating without revenue.

Balancer Labs CEO Marcus Hardt added that it was spending too much to attract liquidity relative to the revenue the protocol is making, a strategy that came at the cost of diluting Balancer (BAL) token holders.

Source: Marcus Hardt

Balancer was one of the more notable DeFi protocols during the 2020–2021 bull market, reaching a peak of $3.3 billion in total value locked (TVL) in November 2021.

However, that figure fell to $800 million by October 2025, with the hack leading to another $500 million TVL drop over the next two weeks. Balancer’s TVL has since fallen to $158 million, showing how challenging it is for DeFi protocols to recover from large-scale hacks.

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Martinelli said the November exploit “created real and ongoing legal exposure” and that maintaining a corporate entity that carries the liability of past security incidents wasn’t sustainable.

Balancer Labs executives outline restructuring plan

Moving forward, Hardt and Martinelli are pushing for Balancer’s future to be managed by the Balancer Foundation and the protocol’s decentralized autonomous organization.

Martinelli advocated for Balancer to adopt a more “lean continuation path,” which involves cutting BAL emissions to zero, restructuring fees to enable Balancer’s DAO to capture more revenue, reducing the team as much as possible and targeting lower operating costs.