Crypto markets are stuck in a holding pattern as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East cloud an otherwise improving macro backdrop, according to crypto asset manager Grayscale.

“The war in Iran overshadowed virtually all other market developments in March,” the Grayscale research team said in a Wednesday report.

Before the conflict escalated, global growth appeared to be strengthening and central banks were leaning toward rate cuts. That outlook has been disrupted by a sharp rise in oil prices, which has fueled inflation concerns and pushed interest rate expectations higher, weighing on risk assets and keeping investors on the sidelines, the report said.

Since the outbreak of the Middle East conflict, crypto markets have been volatile but broadly rangebound, with sharp headline-driven swings tied to oil prices and shifting risk sentiment. Bitcoin BTC$66,865.37 initially dropped into the mid-$60,000s on the first escalation, then rebounded toward the low-$70,000s before slipping back again as the conflict dragged on and macro conditions tightened.

More recently, renewed escalation has pushed bitcoin down roughly 10% from March highs, alongside declines in ether (ETH) and other tokens, as investors pulled back from risk assets. Despite the turbulence, performance has held up better than some traditional markets, with bitcoin roughly flat since the start of the war and even outperforming equities at times, underscoring both its sensitivity to macro shocks and its relative resilience.

For now, Grayscale expects many market participants to wait for greater clarity. If the conflict eases and energy prices retreat, markets could quickly reprice toward a more supportive macro environment. If not, persistently high oil prices may continue to pressure growth and delay a broader recovery.

Even so, crypto has shown notable resilience. Prices have held relatively steady through the volatility, suggesting a more durable bottom may be forming. The research team also pointed to continued inflows into spot crypto investment products and a pickup in futures positioning as signs that risk appetite is stabilizing beneath the surface.

Looking ahead, the report argued that the key catalyst for a sustained rebound will be a reduction in macro uncertainty. But it maintains that the long-term drivers of the asset class, including growing adoption of stablecoins and tokenized assets, remain intact.

The stablecoin market has expanded rapidly in recent years, with total supply rising from about $20 billion in 2020 to more than $300 billion by 2025, and sitting around $315 billion, according to industry data.

The sector added roughly $100 billion in 2025 alone, reflecting renewed growth after a brief contraction, as demand for dollar-pegged digital assets surged across trading, payments and onchain finance.

Periods of heightened uncertainty like the current one have historically presented attractive opportunities for long-term investors positioning for the next phase of growth, the report added.

Read more: Bitcoin holds ground as gold, silver slide on ETF outflows and liquidity strains: JPMorgan

Arkham flagged a 500 Bitcoin outflow from a wallet it attributes to Riot Platforms on Wednesday, in a possible sale the company had not publicly commented on by publication time.

The Bitcoin (BTC) wallet outflow sale comes shortly after Riot posted record 2025 revenue of around $647 million, driven by an increase in Bitcoin mining revenue, and amid other recent Bitcoin disposals by large listed miners.

Last week, MARA Holdings disclosed that it sold about $1.1 billion worth of Bitcoin in March to repurchase convertible debt at a discount, reflecting similar moves by other public miners that have collectively sold over 15,000 BTC in recent months as they balance operational needs and investment plans against a more volatile price and cost backdrop.

The pattern is not uniform. Bitcoin treasury companies, including Metaplanet, are still aggressively adding to their holdings. Nakamoto, meanwhile, disclosed in a recent filing that it sold about 284 Bitcoin for $20 million in March.

On the other hand, onchain tracker Lookonchain, citing Arkham data, reported that wallets it links to Empery Digital, one of the largest listed BTC treasuries, transferred out what it described as “the remaining 1,795 BTC” (about $122.5 million) to Gemini after a series of smaller BTC sales throughout March.

Delisting risk grows for miners

Listing pressures are also in focus for some mining-linked stocks. Cango, which has built out its Bitcoin mining operations, announced Wednesday it received a notice from the New York Stock Exchange after its shares traded below $1 for 30 consecutive trading days, triggering a six-month period to regain compliance with continued-listing standards.

On the same day, Cango also announced a new $65 million capital raising transaction and $10 million convertible note financing. Its share price rose on the news, closing the day at $0.42, 4.6% higher, but was trading at $0.41, 3.59% lower, in premarket Thursday, according to data from Yahoo! Finance, well below NYSE requirements.

Juliet Ye, head of investor relations and communications at Cango, told Cointelegraph that the company would maintain its strategic roadmap despite the notice, and that it had been “proactively implementing cost optimization and efficiency enhancement measures over the past several months,” including divesting obsolete capacity and migrating to lower electricity cost regions.

She added that the recent completion of the two financing transactions, alongside “the adjustment of our treasury strategy,” served as concrete examples of measures to help address both the listing requirements and current market conditions.

Related: Bitcoin mining difficulty falls 7.7% as miner pressure persists

In January, crypto mining hardware maker Canaan Inc. disclosed a similar minimum-bid deficiency notice from Nasdaq after its American depositary shares stayed under the $1 threshold for 30 straight sessions, and it likewise had 180 days to cure the issue. 

Despite share price pressure, Canaan has continued expanding operations. The company’s Bitcoin reserves increased in Q1 2026, despite many peers offloading their holdings. Earlier in March, it also acquired a 49% stake in two Texas-based mining sites, part of its broader strategy to diversify geographically and strengthen US market exposure.

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