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LeBron James Polymarket Deal: Will Prediction Markets Go Mainstream?

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Polymarket Seeks to Offer Margin Trading to US Users

The LeBron James Polymarket partnership went public in a video the NBA star posted to X, and the prediction market platform promises a full reveal on Tuesday.

The clip shows James inside an elevator at what he calls Polymarket HQ. He passes buttons for politics, crypto, economy, culture, weather, esports and technology, then steps out on the sports floor.

LeBron James Polymarket Deal Follows DraftKings Exit

LeBron James. Source: X

James endorsed sportsbook DraftKings from 2024 until that deal expired earlier this summer. He surfaced at Polymarket weeks later.

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The switch matters because prediction markets now siphon bets from sportsbooks. Sector volume topped $20 billion a month by January, up from roughly $1.2 billion in early 2025. James himself became a market this summer, since betting on his next team drew more than $245 million in volume.

League rules shape what he can promote. The NBA allows players to endorse prediction markets, yet it bars them from pushing contracts tied to NBA games. The NFL and the PGA Tour reportedly ban such deals outright.

Other athletes arrived first. Giannis Antetokounmpo became a Kalshi shareholder earlier this year, which intensified the rivalry between the two platforms.

Leagues moved too. Polymarket became Major League Baseball’s official prediction market provider, while the NHL struck deals with both operators in October 2025.

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Cities and states have pushed back, however. Baltimore sued both operators in August, calling them unlicensed sportsbooks. New York sued Kalshi in July for more than $36 billion. Those cases sit inside a broader fight over sports contracts.

Investors have shrugged off the pressure so far. Polymarket sought $400 million at a $15 billion valuation in April, well above the $9 billion it commanded last October. Intercontinental Exchange, which owns the New York Stock Exchange, has committed $2 billion to the company.

Meanwhile, Polymarket keeps widening its menu beyond politics and sports. The platform added Pokemon card markets in August.

Terms remain undisclosed. Still, the LeBron James Polymarket campaign arrives as football season starts, and the coming weeks should show whether star power converts curious fans into active traders.

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Satoshi-Era Bitcoin Moves After 16 Years Dormant, 600 BTC Shift

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Crypto Breaking News

Bitcoin rewards mined in March 2010—now moving after more than 16 years from long-dormant wallets—have triggered fresh debate over whether the earliest coins could be tied to Satoshi Nakamoto. On Saturday, multiple addresses that together held about 600 BTC (worth roughly $48 million) transferred funds after an inactivity stretch spanning well over a decade and a half, according to onchain data reviewed by Cointelegraph.

The latest movement is getting attention because it falls within the period when Nakamoto was still active in Bitcoin’s early development. But blockchain sleuthing by Whale Alert points to a different conclusion: the company says it found no link between these specific mining blocks and Nakamoto.

Key takeaways

  • About 600 BTC moved from dormant Bitcoin addresses after more than 16 years, with Cointelegraph tracing the activity to onchain monitoring reports.
  • Whale Alert attributes the funds to block rewards from March 2010, when the per-block subsidy was 50 BTC.
  • Whale Alert says its research cannot connect any of the 12 relevant mining blocks to Satoshi Nakamoto.
  • The same incident builds on Whale Alert’s earlier work that covered seven of the rewards, now expanded to all 12.
  • Lookonchain previously identified seven miner wallets tied to the March 2010 mining period, reinforcing the timeline.

Whale Alert expands its mapping of the March 2010 rewards

Whale Alert’s follow-up research, as reported to Cointelegraph, identifies all 12 reward events behind the dormant funds. The transfers originate from Bitcoin blocks mined in March 2010, when each mined block paid a 50 BTC subsidy. Over time, that subsidy has been reduced through Bitcoin’s scheduled halving process.

Most recently, the subsidy fell in April 2024, when Bitcoin’s block reward decreased from 6.25 BTC to the current 3.125 BTC per block, following Bitcoin’s 2024 halving. While that historical note doesn’t change the origin story of the dormant coins, it helps contextualize why coins mined in early 2010 were so much larger per block than today’s issuance.

Whale Alert previously analyzed only seven of the rewards and said in an X post that those blocks were not mined by Nakamoto. This latest work extends the company’s tracing to the full set of 12 reward blocks connected to Saturday’s wallet activity.

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Where the “Satoshi” speculation comes from—and why Whale Alert disputes it

Speculation intensified because the moved coins are “Satoshi-era” rewards—mined while Nakamoto was still participating in Bitcoin communications and development. Nakamoto’s involvement didn’t end abruptly; the individual continued to be present in the project through 2010 and then gradually withdrew. Cointelegraph previously reported that the last known communication dates to April 2011.

However, Whale Alert argues that timing alone is not enough to claim a link to Nakamoto. A Whale Alert spokesperson told Cointelegraph that none of the blocks tied to the 12 rewards can be connected to Satoshi based on its research. In other words, although the coins are old enough to keep the mythic connection alive, Whale Alert’s mapping does not support the origin claim.

For traders and long-term holders, the practical takeaway is that “old coins” and “Satoshi-era” are not the same as “Satoshi coins.” The distinction matters because narratives about Nakamoto-linked holdings often feed into heightened speculation, even when the underlying evidence is absent or inconclusive.

Inactivity broke: test-transaction pattern and wallet behavior

Whale Alert also provided interpretive context for how the transfers unfolded. The company noted that one of the 12 reward payments moved several blocks before most of the others. Whale Alert suggested this sequencing resembles a test transaction—followed by later transfers from the remaining related addresses—rather than a single coordinated sweep.

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That behavioral detail matters because it influences how observers read the motive behind dormant-wallet activity. A test transaction implies the sender may have been verifying rules or pathways before moving larger amounts, whereas a single immediate consolidation typically points to a different kind of operational intent. Without access to private keys or additional offchain context, onchain pattern analysis is the closest available lens.

Cointelegraph also notes that Lookonchain previously identified seven miner wallets that moved 350 BTC after about 16.5 years of inactivity, attributing those wallets to March 2010 mining. Taken together, the overlap in timing supports that the dormant activity is tied to the early mining subsidy period, even if the participants remain anonymous.

What to watch next as “early coins” come back online

These movements are a reminder that Bitcoin’s early distribution still occasionally reappears on public ledgers—sometimes after extraordinary inactivity. Even when those events are not linked to Nakamoto, they can still matter: large-value transfers from long-dormant addresses can shift sentiment around supply dynamics and may drive short-term speculation about whether more old holdings will move.

For now, the key uncertainty is whether additional related wallets—connected to other early mining outputs—will remain silent or follow this pattern. Investors and traders should watch for follow-on transactions from adjacent early-era addresses and for further onchain attribution work that either corroborates or refines the “which blocks were mined by whom” questions.

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‘Possible Love’ Is a Delicate Drama of Love and Longing in Anxious Times

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'Possible Love' Is a Delicate Drama of Love and Longing in Anxious Times

Lee opens the picture with a funeral, or, rather, a small family piling into their car to get to the funeral venue. Wife and mother Mi-ok (Jeon Do-yeon) wonders if she’s wearing the right dress, and the shoes she has chosen, a pair she hasn’t worn in a long time, are already pinching her feet. Her husband, Ho-seok (Sul Kyung-gu), says little—so little that it’s clear he’s filled with dread over whatever awaits him at this upcoming, obviously unhappy social event. Their extremely quiet young son (Jung Seop) sits in the back seat, amusing himself by dangling an empty chip bag out the window like a windsock. “It’s flying,” he says, just before letting it go—he’s not the only one feeling the oppressiveness of that car ride.

It’s never expressly spelled out who this funeral is for, but we can intuit that it’s one of Ho-seok’s former work colleagues. It turns out that Ho-seok is one of many workers who not so long ago lost his job at a large corporation, SP, and he hasn’t yet recovered, either financially or emotionally. Mi-ok is doing the best she can—she holds down a menial factory job—but her husband’s depression and excessive drinking is getting to her. By chance, in the funeral home parking lot, she meets a handsome stranger, Sang-woo (Zo In-sung), who moves his very expensive car when Mi-ok believes her wedding ring, having slipped off her finger, has rolled beneath it. It turns out that Sang-woo’s wife, Ye-ji (Cho Yeo-Jong), is making a documentary about, as she puts it, “the personal lives of laborers.” Ye-ji is thrilled to have found Mi-ok and Ho-seok as subjects—she’s particularly interested in the melancholic Ho-seok, who, she believes, could be the dramatic key her project. But she and Mi-ok also genuinely like each other and strike up a friendship. Possible Love traces the tangled dynamics between these four characters, while also flirting with uncomfortable questions about the moral quandaries that can arise in any filmmaker-subject relationship.

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Bitcoin ETFs Rake In Nearly $1 Billion as Ethereum Funds Keep the Streak Alive

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The spot exchange-traded funds tracking the largest cryptocurrency attracted almost $1 billion in the past week, despite the $236 million in net outflows registered on September 1.

The Ethereum ETFs were also well in the green. They have marked more inflows than outflows for eight out of the past nine weeks.

BTC ETFs See Another $1B in Inflows

The previous business week ended with a $201.81 million net outflow from the spot BTC ETFs, but the overall performance was quite impressive. The inflows in the other four days offset all the losses on Friday, and the week ended with a net gain of $924.48 million. Thus, the funds built on the previous week’s major inflows of $1.92 billion.

August finished with net inflows of $216.70 million, followed by $236.46 million in net outflows on September 1. Investors shifted their stance in the following three days by attracting $101.15 million on Wednesday and $174.60 million on Friday. Thursday was particularly spectacular, as the funds gained $730.87 million, the highest amount since January.

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Thus, the total number for the week was $986.85 million, bringing the cumulative net inflows to $55.62 billion. Recall that this number had plummeted to $51.79 billion in mid-August.

BlackRock’s IBIT remains the undisputed leader in the ETF space, with cumulative net assets exceeding $62.6 billion. Fidelity’s FBTC follows suit with $14.07 million, and Grayscale’s larger fund, GBTC, is next with $10.36 billion.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs Net Flows. Source: SoSoValue
Spot Bitcoin ETFs Net Flows. Source: SoSoValue

ETH ETFs in Green, Too

Given their size, the spot Ethereum ETFs have performed even better over the past several weeks. As mentioned above, they have had only one red week since early July, and even that was quite modest, with just $2.26 million in net inflows back in mid-August.

The financial vehicles gained $824.42 million during the week that ended on August 28, and another $218.41 million in the first week of September. Thursday was once again the most notable day in terms of net inflows, with $141.39 million entering the funds. Another $87.68 million went in on Monday, $10.95 million on Tuesday, and $26.46 million on Friday. The only red day was Wednesday with $48.08 million.

The cumulative total net inflows have skyrocketed from $10.89 billion in early July to $13.19 billion on September 4.

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Spot Ethereum ETF Flows. Source: SoSoValue
Spot Ethereum ETF Flows. Source: SoSoValue

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Better and Coinbase’s bitcoin-backed mortgages can reuse borrowers’ collateral

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Better and Coinbase’s bitcoin-backed mortgages can reuse borrowers’ collateral


Better Mortgage can reuse the pledged bitcoin, and borrowers cannot recover their crypto until the main conventional mortgage is fully repaid or refinanced.

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Satoshi-Era Bitcoin Reactivates After 16 Years as 600 BTC Moves

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Crypto Breaking News

Coins mined in Bitcoin’s earliest era have finally stirred after more than 16 years of inactivity, prompting fresh speculation that they could be tied to Satoshi Nakamoto. According to on-chain analysis highlighted by Cointelegraph, 12 dormant Bitcoin addresses collectively moved 600 BTC on Saturday—an amount currently valued around $48 million.

While the timing has fueled “Satoshi-era” narratives, Whale Alert’s research claims it found no evidence linking the transactions to Nakamoto. The platform says the moved funds trace back to block rewards earned during March 2010, when Satoshi was still actively involved with the project’s early development and communications—before gradually stepping back.

Key takeaways

  • On-chain data reviewed by Cointelegraph shows 12 Bitcoin addresses moved a total of 600 BTC after more than 16 years of dormancy.
  • Whale Alert traced the 600 BTC to mining rewards paid across 12 Bitcoin blocks in March 2010, each originally issued as a 50 BTC subsidy.
  • Whale Alert says none of those blocks can be connected to Satoshi Nakamoto based on its analysis.
  • Prior work by Whale Alert covered only seven of the rewards, while Lookonchain had earlier identified seven miner wallets moving 350 BTC.
  • The fact that the coins were mined while Nakamoto was still involved is driving attention—but “same era” is not the same as “same owner.”

Early blocks, long dormancy, and a sudden wake-up

The renewed activity centers on a cluster of very old wallets that had not shown movement for over a decade and a half. Cointelegraph reports that 12 addresses collectively moved 600 BTC after more than 16 years. Whale Alert, a blockchain transaction tracking platform, said the amount originated from rewards mined across 12 distinct Bitcoin blocks.

For investors and on-chain observers, these kinds of “awakening” events matter because they can create a brief narrative spike: dormant supply can look like potential future sell pressure, even when no immediate market impact is confirmed. In this case, the key question is not just that the coins moved, but where they came from—and who may have controlled them.

Whale Alert told Cointelegraph that its research did not find a link between the mined blocks and Nakamoto. This point is important: speculation often increases when activity occurs during a period associated with Nakamoto’s involvement, but attribution claims require more than chronology.

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Whale Alert expands its tracing from seven to twelve rewards

Whale Alert’s updated work reportedly traces all 12 block rewards to Bitcoin blocks mined in March 2010. At that time, the protocol paid a 50 BTC block subsidy per block. Since then, the subsidy has been reduced repeatedly through halvings; the most recent reduction referenced in the report came in April 2024, when the block subsidy fell from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC per block.

The analysis also builds on Whale Alert’s earlier effort. Cointelegraph notes that Whale Alert had previously examined seven of the rewards and said it identified those blocks as not mined by Nakamoto. In the updated accounting, Whale Alert now extends its tracing to cover the remaining five rewards as well.

Independent on-chain analytics had already surfaced part of the story. Cointelegraph says Lookonchain initially identified seven miner wallets that moved 350 BTC after 16.5 years of inactivity, attributing the funds to mining activity in March 2010. Taken together, the different layers of analysis underscore a consistent theme: these were mining rewards from early blocks—not some later token swap or unrelated transfer.

Why “Satoshi-era” is a tempting narrative—and a weak proof

The movement drew attention largely because March 2010 sits squarely in the period when Satoshi Nakamoto was still active in Bitcoin development and communications. Cointelegraph points to Nakamoto’s involvement continuing through 2010, with the last known communication dating to April 2011.

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However, the editorial distinction here matters: “mined during the time Nakamoto was around” does not automatically mean “controlled by Nakamoto.” Whale Alert’s spokesperson emphasized that none of the blocks associated with the 12 rewards could be connected to Nakamoto based on its research.

Cointelegraph also reports a behavioral detail that further complicates simple attribution. Whale Alert said one of the rewards moved several blocks before most of the others, suggesting the early transfer pattern could align with a test transaction preceding the rest of the movements. In other words, even if multiple rewards originate from the same month and subsidy era, the way the coins were handled over time may reflect operational behavior rather than a single, easily identifiable owner.

What to watch next after these long-dormant transfers

When ancient Bitcoin moves, the immediate on-chain fact is clear—coins changed hands from addresses that had been silent for years. What remains uncertain is the economic intent behind the transfers: whether these movements represent consolidation, internal housekeeping, or preparations that could later involve liquidation.

For readers monitoring these developments, the most practical next step is to track where the 600 BTC ultimately flows after the initial movement, and whether any portion returns to new dormant addresses or heads toward exchanges. The “Satoshi” question may remain speculative without stronger evidence, but the real signal for market participants will be the downstream path of the coins and how quickly—if at all—the revived supply reaches liquidity.

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ZEC Just Hit $1,200: What You Need to Know About Its Meteoric 370% Surge in 3 Months

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It was just three months ago that FUD around Zcash (ZEC) was running rampant, and a vulnerability in its Orchard privacy pool turned the tables and raised some uncomfortable questions.

The situation has taken a major turn, as the protocol patched the issue, and its privacy nature made it arguably the top performer in the large-cap altcoin space in the past three months.

The Meteoric Rise

Recall that the issue was first disclosed by Zcash founder Zooko Wilcox and members of Shielded Labs, who explained that a hacker could have used this weakness to make endless fake ZEC in Orchard, Zcash’s protected transaction area, without getting caught right away. Although by the time they made this public, the vulnerability was fixed, it still pushed some prominent names, such as Arthur Hayes, to dispose of their holdings, citing further potential issues.

The impact on the native token was felt immediately. The asset traded at $650 before the issue became public and tumbled by 60% within a day or so to $260 as FUD was being spread left and right.

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That’s when the trend reversed for the privacy coin as it managed to stabilize at around $500, where it spent the next couple of months. The most significant leg up began with the August 19 market-wide breakout that drove it to $900. While the rest of the market stalled following the initial gains, ZEC kept climbing and briefly exceeded $1,200 earlier today for the first time in almost 10 years.

This means that the token has skyrocketed by 370% since the early June low. Its market cap now is above $20 billion, making it bigger than HYPE and DOGE.

ZEC/USD. Source: TradingView
ZEC/USD. Source: TradingView

Data from CoinGlass shows that ZEC’s spectacular surge over the past 24 hours has resulted in $46 million in short liquidations, the highest among all cryptocurrencies.

The Drivers and What’s Next

Shortly after the mid-August rally began, Grayscale debuted its Zcash ETF (on August 25), which has already raked in $34.4 million in net inflows.

“The bigger question isn’t whether Zcash can keep going up. It’s whether the ETF era is creating a new pathway for capital to rotate into crypto assets that were previously overlooked. ZEC may be an early test of that thesis,” commented The Wolf of All Streets.

Meanwhile, Ted Pillows noted that a major whale DCA-ed into ZEC between 2022 and 2024, accumulating 22,840 ZEC for about $1.1 million. The position had grown to $23 million by today, when they transferred the entire amount to Binance, potentially to cash in.

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Crypto Patel weighed in on ZEC’s price potential, indicating that it has created a “Beautiful Cup & Handle Pattern” on the weekly scale. He added that the asset has broken the Neckline/Resistance of this pattern, which could materialize in another massive surge to $2,200.

The post ZEC Just Hit $1,200: What You Need to Know About Its Meteoric 370% Surge in 3 Months appeared first on CryptoPotato.

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New Ethereum Upgrade Could Overhaul Crypto Transactions and Fees

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What Vitalik Buterin's EIP-8141 proposal changes, the next Ethereum upgrade

Vitalik Buterin published an updated Ethereum Improvement Proposal (EIP) 8141 on Sunday. The draft heads into Hegotá, the next Ethereum upgrade, and it rewrites how wallets sign, batch, and pay.

The setup tests whether privacy tools can run inside Ethereum itself instead of sitting around it.

Ethereum Upgrade Bundles 64 Actions Into One Transaction

Today an Ethereum transaction does one thing. It sends money, or it approves a token, and that is the whole job.

Frame transactions change that. One transaction can carry up to 64 steps in a fixed order. The entire batch fails when any single step fails.

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That all-or-nothing rule kills a familiar failure mode, where an approval lands but the swap behind it does not.

Approving a token and swapping it therefore becomes one click instead of two. Wallets can also fold a full onboarding flow into a single confirmation. Buterin floated much of this logic in March, when he pitched a broader Ethereum wallet overhaul.

What Vitalik Buterin's EIP-8141 proposal changes, the next Ethereum upgrade
What Vitalik Buterin’s EIP-8141 proposal changes, the next Ethereum upgrade, Source: BeInCrypto

Three Changes Users Will Actually Notice

The first change targets seed phrases. A lost 12-word backup today means lost funds. EIP-8141 detaches an account from its original key.

Wallets can then rotate keys or rebuild access through a second device or a trusted contact. The private key still exists, and users simply stop carrying it on paper.

The second change targets gas. Paymasters let any app pay a user’s fee, so newcomers can act before buying Ethereum. Apps absorb the cost as a customer acquisition expense.

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The third change targets signatures. The draft adds P256, the scheme behind passkeys and phone security chips. Its authors call the move an off-ramp toward post-quantum cryptography rather than a finished quantum fix, an idea Buterin sketched in his lean Ethereum roadmap in July.

Scale drives the bigger goal. Buterin wants a more Bitcoin-like Ethereum design, where simple, predictable transactions incur the lowest gas fees.

Ethereum (ETH) changed hands near $2,512 on Sunday, roughly 49% higher over 90 days.

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Client teams have set no activation date, and the Glamsterdam gas limit push arrives first in Q4 2026.

The post New Ethereum Upgrade Could Overhaul Crypto Transactions and Fees appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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600 BTC Mined in 2010 Moves After 16 Years of Dormancy

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600 BTC Mined in 2010 Moves After 16 Years of Dormancy

Bitcoin mined in 2010 moved from long-dormant addresses after more than 16 years, reigniting speculation over a possible link to Satoshi Nakamoto.

Twelve addresses holding a combined 600 Bitcoin (BTC), worth about $48 million, moved the coins on Saturday after more than 16 years of dormancy, according to onchain data reviewed by Cointelegraph.

Whale Alert, a blockchain transaction tracking platform, said the 600 BTC came from rewards mined across 12 Bitcoin blocks and that its research found no connection to Nakamoto.

“None of the blocks can be connected to Satoshi based on our research,” a spokesperson for Whale Alert told Cointelegraph, tempering speculation around the origins of coins mined while Bitcoin’s pseudonymous creator was still active.

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Whale Alert traces all 12 mining block rewards

Whale Alert traced all 12 rewards to Bitcoin blocks mined in March 2010, when each block paid a 50 BTC block subsidy. The subsidy has since been cut in half four times, most recently in April 2024, when it fell from 6.25 BTC to the current 3.125 BTC per block.

The findings expand on Whale Alert’s earlier analysis of seven of the rewards. It said in an X post on Sunday that those seven originated from blocks it had determined were not mined by Nakamoto.

The mining blocks and addresses for the 12 dormant Bitcoin rewards. Source: Whale Alert

Lookonchain, an onchain analytics platform, had also initially identified seven miner wallets that moved 350 BTC after 16.5 years of inactivity, saying the wallets earned the coins through mining in March 2010.

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Satoshi-era doesn’t mean Satoshi’s Bitcoin

The movement attracted attention partly because the coins date to a period when Nakamoto was still actively involved with Bitcoin.

Nakamoto remained involved in Bitcoin development and communications through 2010 before gradually withdrawing from the project, with their last known communication dating to April 2011.

One of the 12 addresses received a 50 BTC mining reward on March 5, 2010, and moved the coins to a new address on Sept. 5, 2026. Source: Blockchain.com

Whale Alert noted that one reward moved several blocks before most of the others, saying the pattern was consistent with a test transaction before the remaining transfers.

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Magazine: BTC will hit $1M by 2030… but Arthur Hayes is buying ETH instead

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Sugar is outperforming the stock market this year. What’s driving it

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Sugar is outperforming the stock market this year. What's driving it

ATU Images | The Image Bank | Getty Images

Sugar is getting a lot less sweet for buyers.

Sugar prices surged 21.5% in August, marking its strongest monthly gain since October 2010, when it rose 24%. The United Nation’s Food and Agriculture Organization Food Price Index also rose in August amid broad-based increases, led by sugar.

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“The surge reflected expectations of lower sugar beet yields in the European Union due to adverse weather, concerns over the impact of El Niño on production prospects in key producing countries in Asia, lower sugar production in Brazil, and India’s announcement of duty-free raw sugar imports,” the organization said in its recent report.

The August rally pushed sugar futures ahead of the S&P 500 on a year-to-date basis. The sweetener is now up about 20% in 2026, versus the nearly 13% advance for the broad market index.

The U.N.’s Food and Agriculture Organization points out that the sugar rally is tied to several factors, which are collectively pushing the prices in the market.

The sugar rally reflects a shift in expectations about global supply, according to William Osnato, Barchart director of commodity data research and analysis. Osnato told CNBC that the damage to Europe’s sugar-beet crop during a summer heat wave was one of the biggest immediate factors.

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Sugar beets are grown in the same places and around the same time as corn and wheat, and so the heat wave can significantly affect sugar production.

“That’s been factored in over the last month. So a bunch of organizations lowered their production estimates,” Osnato said.

Different organizations have either slashed production estimates or increased deficit estimates in their recent reports. The European Commission’s latest sugar balance sheet estimates a decline in EU production of 19% to 13.4 million metric tons, in the 2026/27 marketing year, from 16.6 million tons in 2025/26. Citi projected a world deficit of 1.3 million metric tons in a Tuesday note, and Green Pool Commodity Specialists estimated 3.2 million metric tons.

“What is usually consistent is that they’re all going in the same direction,” Osnato said. “They’re all increasing the deficit.”

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In the note, Citi analysts called sugar a “highest-conviction bullish” market among agricultural commodities traded on the Intercontinental Exchange. The bank raised its price target to 19 cents per pound over three months, citing tightening inventories, India’s unexpected import program and deteriorating weather in India, Thailand and the EU.

El Niño threatens upcoming harvests

Osnato said that El Niño, a global climate pattern that can bring warmer ocean temperatures and severe weather, is likely “the biggest forward-looking concern.”

A potentially extreme El Niño intensifies the pressure on sugar prices. 

Brazil, India and Thailand together account for approximately 70% of global sugar exports. Goldman Sachs said in a note that drought during the growing season could lower cane yields, while excessive rainfall during harvest could interrupt fieldwork and reduce the sugar content of cane. The Climate Brink’s multi-model median forecast shows the temperature anomaly for the Niño 3.4 region in the Pacific Ocean peaking near 3.9 degrees Celsius — or about 39 degrees Fahrenheit — in November. That’s well above the 2 degrees Celsius, or 35.6 degrees Fahrenheit, threshold for a very strong El Niño.

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India has faced below-normal rainfall in key sugar-producing regions. A weak monsoon can deplete reservoirs, discouraging many farmers from planting water-intensive sugarcane for the following season. Further, unusually warm Pacific Ocean temperatures are expected to bring erratic rainfall and water shortages across Thailand.

Brazil’s ethanol pivot and India’s sugar imports

Higher energy prices are also making ethanol more attractive relative to sugar in Brazil, where mills can shift cane between the two products.

“When the price of oil increases, countries that produce ethanol from sugar have a higher incentive to produce more ethanol and export less sugar to the global market,” Rob Johansson, director of economics and policy analysis at the American Sugar Alliance told CNBC in an email. “With oil prices over $90 a barrel, countries like Brazil, which heavily subsidizes its ethanol industry, are producing more biofuel, lowering the amount of sugar available on the market and putting upward pressure on prices,” Johansson said.

Brazil alone accounts for roughly half of world sugar exports. Brazilian mills can typically shift their production mix between sugar and ethanol, depending on which is more profitable. 

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According to Goldman Sachs’ analysis, because corn is an important feedstock for ethanol production alongside sugarcane, a weaker corn crop due to El Niño-related droughts may divert more sugarcane into ethanol production, leaving less sugar available for export.

Rain has also delayed harvesting in Brazil, Osnato said. Some production could be recovered once fields dry, making a rebound in Brazilian sugar content or faster harvesting one of the clearest downside risks to prices.

India, the world’s second-largest sugar producer behind Brazil, recently authorized 1 million metric tons of duty-free raw-sugar imports. The Indian government said the decision was intended to bolster domestic availability amid lower production, seasonal demand and rising prices. With India restricting exports while entering the market as a buyer, less sugar could be available to other importing countries.

Osnato said the decision followed two disappointing crops and is significant because it was India’s first import authorization since the 2017-2018 season. Even if India imports only about half the authorized amount, he said, the move reinforces the view that supplies are tighter than previously estimated.

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“Brazil remains the market’s key balancing supplier, but weather-related execution risks during the remainder of the harvest leave little margin for error,” Citi analyst Arkady Gevorkyan wrote in a note.

— CNBC’s Nick Wells contributed reporting.

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CLARITY Act Gets a Major Boost, But Another Setback Threatens Its 2026 Passage

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The CLARITY Act received a potentially important boost ahead of its first Senate floor test, which was supposed to take place on September 15, but another scheduling setback is further threatening its chances of becoming law this year.

On the plus side, the National Sheriffs’ Association (NSA) has changed its tune on the landmark crypto market structure bill from opposition to neutral after previously raising concerns that it could make it more difficult for authorities to combat illicit finance involving digital assets.

NSA Turns Neutral

In the filing to the US Senate, the agency said that it believes the appropriate course is to step back and allow the legislative process to continue given the legislation’s complexity and the issues still being negotiated. This change matters because law enforcement concerns had become a major hurdle for some Senate Democrats whose votes could determine whether the bill advances.

Although the NSA’s move doesn’t mean that it now supports the legislation, its shift from opposition to neutrality removes a source of pressure on senators considering voting to advance it. Essentially, it removes another potential obstacle to attracting the Democratic support the bill needs when it reaches the Senate floor later this month.

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Recall that the Senate Majority Leader John Thune filed a cloture vote motion to proceed with H.R. 3633 in early August so that the Senate can vote on the bill once recess ends.

The vote requires 60 senators and will not pass the CLARITY Act itself. Instead, success would limit debate on the motion to proceed and move the bill toward formal Senate consideration. Republicans hold 53 seats, meaning that Democratic or independent support will be necessary if the conference votes together.

Another Setback

House Republican leaders canceled voting sessions during the weeks of September 21 and 28, removing eight legislative days from the calendar, and the House is now scheduled to leave Washington on September 17, which is just two days after the Senate’s first procedural vote.

The new calendar leaves no time for the Senate negotiations to begin and conclude before lawmakers turn their attention to the November midterms. That makes a post-election lame-duck session an increasingly realistic path for the legislation if it clears the Senate.

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Galaxy Research already reduced its estimated probability that the CLARITY Act will become law in 2026 from 50% to 30% after the Senate failed to vote on it before the August recess. Prediction markets are even less optimistic, with passage odds currently below 20%.

The post CLARITY Act Gets a Major Boost, But Another Setback Threatens Its 2026 Passage appeared first on CryptoPotato.

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