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Major League Baseball signs prediction markets pacts with CFTC, Polymarket

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Major League Baseball signs prediction markets pacts with CFTC, Polymarket

The U.S. federal regulator of prediction markets has secured a formal information-sharing arrangement with Major League Baseball in the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s first such deal with a professional sports governing body, according to a Thursday statement.

The “landmark” collaboration will allow the U.S. derivatives regulator to swap information with the organization that oversees professional baseball, even as the CFTC is still immersed in a legal debate with several U.S. state gaming regulators on who should have jurisdiction over bets on sporting events. The new memorandum of understanding will allow the federal agency to get a better handle on shielding the markets and their users from “fraud, manipulation, and other abuses,” according to a statement from CFTC Chairman Mike Selig.

“The MOU is a collaborative step towards promoting the integrity and resilience of the prediction markets relating to professional baseball,” he said.

“Protecting the integrity of the game on the field is our top priority,” MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred said in a Thursday statement. “By engaging in this community, we are able to work together to create clear boundaries with the goal of mitigating risk while providing fan engagement opportunities.

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At the same time, popular platform Polymarket announced that MLB had named it the league’s official “exclusive prediction market exchange partner.”

The prediction markets — led by such companies as Polymarket and Kalshi — have erupted into sports, politics and other current events, leaving state and federal regulators trying to address their growing popularity. Though the CFTC had previously resisted the sector’s arrival and challenged some of its activity on legal grounds, the agency’s new management set by President Donald Trump embraced the technology.

To that end, Selig has been waging a rhetorical battle with state regulators, claiming that his agency’s authority supersedes the states’ reach on sports gambling.

Manfred told ESPN he saw the federal regulator having jurisdiction as marking the chief distinction that sets prediction-markets activity apart from state-based sports gambling regulations.

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“The fact that you have a federal regulatory scheme makes our life a lot easier as opposed to … take for example, sports betting, where you’re going state by state,” he told the news outlet.

The CFTC is moving forward with its oversight of the sector despite a lack of regulations, which Selig said are coming. Proposing rules to govern prediction markets — a space that overlaps with his wider crypto agenda — is among the chairman’s top agenda items, he’s said.

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Crypto World

Gemini Q4 Revenue Lifts Shares Despite Weaker Crypto Markets

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Gemini Q4 Revenue Lifts Shares Despite Weaker Crypto Markets

Shares in crypto exchange Gemini surged after hours as stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter results showed revenue growth driven by credit card adoption and a reworked fee structure.

Gemini reported on Thursday that its Q4 revenues rose 39% from the year-ago quarter to $60.3 million, reportedly beating analyst expectations of $51.7 million.

It reported a net loss of $140.8 million for Q4, deepening from its $27 million loss from a year ago. Gemini posted a total 2025 loss of $585 million, ahead of its total 2024 losses of $156.6 million.

Gemini co-founders Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss said in a shareholder letter that Q4 was the company’s highest quarterly revenue in three years, even with trading volumes declining, the revenue gain was reflective of “deliberate fee structure work through the back half of the year.”

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Shares in Gemini (GEMI) initially jumped 14% after hours on Thursday to a high of $6.83, but settled at $6.36 for a gain of 5.8% after ending the trading day flat at around $6.

Shares of crypto exchange Gemini rose after hours. Source: Google Finance 

The results are Gemini’s second after going public in September and came amid a broad crypto market decline in late 2025, which saw Bitcoin (BTC) rapidly decline from its all-time peak above $126,000 in October. 

Gemini lays off 30% of staff so far this year

In February, Gemini said it was withdrawing from the UK, the EU and Australia, citing challenging market conditions. The company also planned to lay off 25% of its workforce, in part due to artificial intelligence.

In their letter, Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss said Gemini had reduced its workforce by “roughly 30% since the start of 2026,” citing an increased use of AI.

“Today, AI is used in more than 40% of our production code changes and we expect that number to climb to close to 100% in the not-too-distant future,” they said. “Not using AI at Gemini will soon be the equivalent of showing up to work with a typewriter instead of a laptop.”

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The Winklevoss brothers said the company’s plan this year was to “focus and double down on America,” adding they were encouraged by the pro-crypto stance of US market regulators. 

Prediction markets and credit card key 2026 priorities 

Gemini launched its in-house prediction market, Gemini Predictions, across all 50 US states in December, shortly after it obtained a license from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Related: Gemini bets on ‘super app’ as stock sinks to record low on Q3 results

The company said it would refine and expand its prediction market offering and also scale its credit card and exchange.

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The Winklevoss brothers said Gemini would “shift into becoming a markets company with Gemini Predictions” and use that infrastructure for its perpetual futures contracts once they’re approved in the US.

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