Bitcoin BTC$74,217.02 briefly touched $75,912 early Tuesday before pulling back to $74,372, but the intraday volatility is less interesting than the weekly picture beneath it.

CoinDesk reported earlier Tuesday that the push above $75,000 was driven by derivatives activity rather than fresh buying, specifically the closure of large $60,000 put positions that forced market makers to buy spot bitcoin as they rebalanced.

The rapid pullback below $74,400, a former support level from April 2025, confirmed that traders aren’t willing to chase above that level without a fundamental catalyst.

Every major token is up at least 5% over seven days. Ether climbed 13.3% to $2,316. xrp rose 11% to $1.53, olana gained 9.7% to $93.92. Dogecoin added 9.5% to $0.10, back above a dime. BNB rose 5% to $676. This is the broadest sustained rally since before the Iran war began, and it’s happening heading into the most consequential Fed meeting in months.

But the institutional flow data underneath the rally is real and getting harder to dismiss. CF Benchmarks analyst Mark Pilipczuk noted in an email that spot bitcoin ETFs drew roughly $767 million in net inflows last week, the third consecutive week of positive flows and a sharp reversal from the five-week, $3 billion-plus outflow streak earlier in the year.

The gold convergence trade is another signal worth watching. Year-to-date through mid-March, GLD returned roughly 16% while IBIT lost approximately 19%. But that gap has narrowed sharply, with bitcoin outperforming gold by 13.2% since early March. The 90-day correlation between the two shifted from -0.27 to +0.29 over six months. The “digital gold” narrative that looked dead in February is getting oxygen again.

The Fed meeting that begins today and concludes Wednesday is the pivot point. CME FedWatch still prices a 95%+ probability of a hold at 3.5% to 3.75%, so the decision itself is a non-event.

What matters is the dot plot and Powell’s press conference. Oil above $100 makes the stagflation case unavoidable, but the labor market is weakening, with February’s 92,000 job loss still fresh. The Fed is caught between two mandates pulling in opposite directions, and how Powell articulates that tension on Wednesday could set the direction for risk assets through the end of March.