Market Insights with Gary Thomson: GBP, USD, and JPY Poised for Volatility

In this video, we’ll explore the key economic events and market trends, shaping the financial landscape. Get ready for insights into financial markets to help you navigate the week ahead. Let’s dive in!

In this episode of Market Insights, Gary Thomson breaks down what moved the markets last week and unpacks the strategic implications of the most critical events driving global markets.

📌 Key topics covered in this episode:

✔️ What Happened in the Markets Last Week
Japan’s election result reinforced political stability, lifting the Nikkei to record highs, while the yen unexpectedly strengthened due to positioning shifts and changing monetary policy expectations. Although the currency is supported for now, a sustained reversal in USD/JPY and EUR/JPY is not yet confirmed.

✔️ UK
Sterling has been supported by dollar weakness and relatively firm UK data, while EUR/GBP remains in correction mode. Upcoming UK unemployment data on 17 February and UK inflation on 18 February could trigger sharp moves, especially if inflation continues to exceed expectations and challenges rate-cut pricing. Would persistently high inflation force a major repricing of the Bank of England’s rate outlook and boost GBP further?

✔️ United States
The US dollar remains under pressure after its late-January sell-off, with limited fundamental support for a sustained recovery. However, the PCE Price Index on 20 Februarycould spark short-term volatility. With markets expecting the Fed to hold rates until at least June, any inflation surprise may quickly reprice policy expectations and move FX and equity markets. Could an upside surprise in PCE inflation revive dollar strength by shifting expectations for the Fed’s first rate cut?

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