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Market’s ability to forecast world in question

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Is the market’s ‘crystal ball’ broken? Experts on what current market signs are indicating
Is the market’s ‘crystal ball’ broken? Experts on what current market signs are indicating

Investors may want to take a step back as stocks swing amid rising geopolitical tensions.

DBi’s Andrew Beer suggests the market’s crystal ball is broken.

“It’s not normal for big markets to move as much as they are right now,” the firm’s managing member told CNBC’s “ETF Edge” this week. “Something is deeply wrong in the market’s ability to forecast the state of the world… The only thing we can all do as investors is: This is the moment to plan and to prepare for the worst. You hope for the best.”

Beer, who has spent more than three decades in the hedge fund industry, thinks it’s remarkable the number of stresses on the financial system over the past 12 to18 months hasn’t caused things to spin out of control.

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“You just you have more geopolitical risks stacked on top of each other today [and] more economic risk factors than I remember at any time in my career,” he added.

Beer urges investors to ask themselves how they would act if a 2008 or 2022 market downturn happens again.

“These financial assets are, they’re an investment, but they’re also what you need to survive, to live on, to retire, and so it’s the very real human side of it that I hope people will focus on,” he added.

According to Beer, investing like it’s 2025 could turn into regret.

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“The best thing to do in 2025 was just turn off your computer beginning of the year and come back at the end of the year, and you’ve made money, your stocks and your bonds and everything else,” he said. “It won’t continue like that. We will go through a more difficult period.”

Recent moves in gold, silver, bitcoin and crude oil underscore how difficult it has become for investors to calibrate portfolios, especially as sharp reversals unfold over short periods of time, according to Beer.

“No one has a playbook for that,” said Beer, who is also watching for signs of strain in private credit, insurance company portfolios and other corners of the market where unusual stress could begin to spread.

NovaDius Wealth Management’s Nate Geraci highlighted exchange-traded funds that are designed to offer portfolio protection — particularly managed futures ETFs.

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“This is absolutely something that is a longer-term allocation, and I almost view it as portfolio insurance,” the firm’s president said in the same interview. “You want that insurance when something goes bad in the market, and maybe that’s stocks and bonds going down together.”

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Crypto World

Trust Will Become Crypto’s Real Currency In The AI Economy

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Trust Will Become Crypto’s Real Currency In The AI Economy

Opinion by: Kirill Avery, founder and CEO of Alien

AI-generated voices are already being used in ransom scams. Synthetic agents now trade, vote and interact on blockchain networks. In this environment, the greatest threat to crypto is no longer scalability or regulation; it is the collapse of trust.

As deepfakes, bots and synthetic agents saturate every corner of the internet and as scams increased by 1,400% in 2025, authenticity is becoming a scarce resource.

Scarcity produces markets. Every major technological shift has centered on what becomes hard to fake and costly to produce. In the industrial era, it was energy. In the internet era, it was attention. In the AI era, it is authenticity.

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In the AI era, the crypto industry will stop competing on throughput and start competing on proof of humanity, and most existing identity and compliance models will collapse under synthetic users.

The great flood of the unreal

The internet was built to connect us through information; however, it now overwhelms us with imitation. Every day, new stories expose how generative models are collapsing the boundary between the real and the synthetic.

A mother in Arizona receives a ransom call: Her daughter’s voice pleads for help, matching her tone, cadence and even her breathing. But it isn’t real; the audio was stitched together by an AI model trained on a few seconds of public video. Across the country, a job seeker completes what seems like a normal interview, unaware that the “recruiter” asking questions is an automated agent collecting behavioral data for resale.

These aren’t edge cases. They mark the transition from the information economy to the imitation economy, an era where an abundance of data no longer guarantees truth. The internet once promised to democratize knowledge. Now, it demands we verify everything we see and hear. The problem isn’t that technology can fake reality; it’s that humans can no longer tell the difference.

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Newsrooms fight algorithmic propaganda, financial systems battle synthetic users, and governance dissolves in digital fog. Reality itself is subject to replication without friction.

Realness as the new scarcity

When anything can be generated, creation ceases to be a constraint, and verification becomes the bottleneck, with authenticity acquiring economic weight. Proof that something, or someone, is real becomes an asset class.

Gold represented physical scarcity, and bandwidth represented informational scarcity. Authenticity represents epistemic scarcity. It underwrites the credibility of every domain: Social media requires real followers, finance requires Sybil resistance, and entertainment requires verifiable creators.

In “Nexus,” Yuval Noah Harari described a coming inversion in which artificial intelligence will not need money but will transact in reputation, credibility and identity. Machines will value proof over possession. What they demand is not currency but confirmation of trust, reliability and truth. Authenticity becomes the medium of exchange between humans and the system.

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The invisible infrastructure of trust

Proof of what’s real is becoming part of the market itself. That means we need new infrastructure to support it.

Instead of relying only on things like fingerprints or face scans, we’ll need cryptographic proofs, decentralized identities and systems that can continuously verify trust and behavior.

Authenticity won’t be a one-time check; it will be something we demonstrate over time through our actions. Just as the last century built systems to measure creditworthiness, this one will measure realness. A “realness score” could become the new credit score of the AI era, with identity verified by protocols, authenticity built into platforms and markets rewarding those who prove they’re genuinely human.

This infrastructure will serve AI as secure sockets layer (SSL) once served e-commerce: unseen, indispensable and lucrative.

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Verified or synthetic

The next social divide will not be rich versus poor but verified vs. synthetic. Verified humans will gain access to finance, governance and digital legitimacy. Unverified entities will operate in restricted zones, powerful but distrusted.

Related: Science needs prediction markets that can’t be Sybil-attacked

The moral issue is not verification itself but control. Surveillance models corrupt authenticity by owning it. Decentralized verification prevents ownership, separating proof from power. Identity then becomes the new passport, but only a neutral system can stamp it without subjugation.

The business of trust

For decades, the internet’s economy has been built on buying attention, not trust. Companies pour billions into ad networks chasing impressions and clicks that never convert. A brand might spend $1 million on online ads, only to later discover that half of those “views” came from bots, click farms or automated scraping tools that never had the capacity to buy, believe or belong.

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Businesses already feel the cost of synthetic engagement, but they have no way to measure or verify authenticity at scale. In an AI-saturated internet, that problem becomes existential.

Trust — not reach — will determine value. The next generation of networks won’t sell eyeballs; they’ll sell verified human attention. Imagine a marketing system where advertisers pay only for provably real interactions, a verified consumer who actually watched, engaged or purchased. That is what authenticity infrastructure enables: an economy where truth itself becomes a performance metric.

Proof of being

Humanity has always outsourced trust to gods, states, banks and algorithms. That chain ends now. The next leap forward demands that proof originates not from institutions or code, but from the individual.

The true destination of AI is not to surpass humanity but to define where its edges end, to create a world where humans and machines operate under mutual proof, mutual respect and shared accountability.

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In an era where imitation is infinite, authenticity is the last scarcity. And in the economy that follows, the most valuable currency will not be digital; it will be human realness itself.

Opinion by: Kirill Avery, founder and CEO of Alien.