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Michael Saylor’s Strategy dominates DAT BTC buying as treasury demand collapses

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(CryptoQuant)

Corporate bitcoin buying has narrowed to a single company, and the trade that was supposed to broaden the asset’s institutional base is now a concentration risk.

Strategy, the largest corporate bitcoin holder in the world, purchased roughly 45,000 BTC over the past 30 days, its fastest accumulation pace since April 2025, according to a CryptoQuant report published this week.

(CryptoQuant)
(CryptoQuant)

Every other treasury company combined bought approximately 1,000 BTC in the same period, a 99% decline from a peak of 69,000 BTC in August last year. Their share of total purchases has collapsed to 2%, from 95% at the height of the trade.

(CryptoQuant)
(CryptoQuant)

Michael Saylor’s Strategy now holds roughly 76% of all bitcoin held by treasury companies, according to CryptoQuant data.

The numbers confirm what Galaxy Digital warned about last summer. In a July report, Galaxy argued that the digital asset treasury company model was fundamentally a liquidity derivative that worked only as long as equities traded at a premium to their underlying bitcoin holdings.

Once those premiums compressed, the flywheel would reverse: lower prices would shrink net asset values, squeeze out the equity premium, and make share issuance dilutive rather than accretive.

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That scenario has played out almost exactly as described.

In July and August of 2025, the DATCO summer when these companies were accumulating, BTC was trading north of $110,000. Now, it’s trading under $70,000, according to CoinDesk market data, as it slowly recovers from the crash of October 10.

Companies that bought aggressively near the cycle top, including Metaplanet and Nakamoto Holdings, carried average costs above $107,000 as of December, according to Galaxy’s analysis, putting them deep underwater at current prices.

Strategy has moved to insulate itself, disclosing in December a $1.44 Billion cash reserve with the goal to eventually build this up to a point to cover 24 months of dividend and interest obligations.

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That defensive posture has not slowed its buying. But the CryptoQuant data makes clear that no other firm is keeping pace, and most have stopped trying.

The result is a far more concentrated demand profile than the market was promised.

At Bitcoin Asia in Hong Kong last summer, treasury firms pitched themselves as a scalable new class of corporate buyers that could absorb bitcoin supply and outperform passive exposure.

For now, that vision has narrowed to a single balance sheet.

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Crypto World

Bitcoin Stares Down Recession as BlackRock CEO Joins Oil Price Warnings

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Bitcoin Stares Down Recession as BlackRock CEO Joins Oil Price Warnings

Bitcoin (BTC) faces a new macro test as markets increasingly bet on the US entering recession in 2026.

Key points:

  • Bitcoin could face a new challenge in the form of its first recession after the COVID-19 crash.

  • US recession odds surge as BlackRock CEO Larry Fink warns over oil prices.

  • Bitcoin’s high correlation with “extremely oversold” stocks continues.

Moody’s puts 12-month recession odds near 50%

Data highlighted this week by Axel Adler Jr., a contributor to onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant, shows recession odds nearing 50%.

Bitcoin’s next bull run could come courtesy of a US economic downturn, and market participants see the latter as more and more likely this year.

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“Moody’s Analytics raised the probability of a U.S. recession over the next 12 months to 48.6%, while Goldman Sachs increased its estimate to 30%,” Adler noted on X.

Prediction traders agree, with US recession odds reaching 36% on Kalshi — the highest reading since September 2025.

US recession odds for 2026 (screenshot). Source: Kalshi

The US-Iran war and its impact on global oil prices lie at the heart of the surge. Recent claims by both sides about dialogue to end hostilities and fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz have caused confusion throughout risk-asset markets.

“That’s keeping upside pressure on oil prices, which is recently crossing a key threshold historically associated with recession,” trading resource Mosaic Asset Company commented in the latest edition of its regular newsletter, “The Market Mosaic.”

Mosaic said that oil jumping 50% above its long-term trend, a phenomenon now playing out, “has been seen before or during nearly every recession over the past 50 years.”

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“Oil prices are directly correlated to headline inflation, where a $10 increase per barrel can push inflation higher by 0.20% or more,” it added.

Oil price chart with recessions marked. Source: Mosaic Asset Company

Major players echo those concerns, including Larry Fink, CEO of the world’s largest asset manager, BlackRock.

“We’ll have a global recession,” he told the BBC this week about the consequences of Iran staying a “threat” to the global economy, even if the war itself ended.

Bitcoin stays tied to “extremely oversold” stocks

Bitcoin has had little experience of recession in its lifespan of less than 20 years.

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Related: Gold slides as traders eye sub-$50K BTC: Five things to know in Bitcoin this week

In 2020, a US recession from February to April preceded a period of major BTC price upside after BTC/USD initially joined risk assets in a global crash in March.

BTC/USD one-week chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

As Cointelegraph reported, Bitcoin’s correlation to US stocks has become stronger this year, potentially increasing the potential for a relief bounce.

“While the uncertainty over inflation and the outlook for monetary are broadly weighing across the market, conditions are very favorable to see at least a short-term rally unfold,” Mosaic commented. 

“Various measures of investor sentiment and positioning are pointing to excessive bearishness in the market while breadth metrics are extending to extremely oversold levels.”

S&P 500 chart. Source: Mosaic Asset Company