The crypto market is on the cusp of a major breakout as bitcoin BTC$73,685.87 trades at $73,000 and ether (ETH) at $2,250, its highest level since Feb. 4.

If bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, can break above $74,000 on convincing volume, it will likely run back to $80,000, which was a level of support in November before an eventual breakdown in January.

A rejection, on the other hand, would lead to a reversion to a trading range between $62,000 and $72,000, which has persisted for more than a month.

But the main story on Monday is not among crypto majors, it is the altcoin market and memecoins in particular.

PEPE rose by around 20% in the past 24 hours, while BONK and PENGU are also up by double digits. However, “overbought” conditions on the average relative strength index (RSI) suggest a pullback may be in store before any breakout.

Oil remains inflated at above $106 per barrel despite the U.S. reportedly considering a coalition to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz, a key trade route.

U.S. stock futures are up around 0.5% and crypto-related companies are advancing in pre-market trading. Crypto exchange Coinbase (COIN) was recently 3% higher and Circle Internet (CRCL) added 5%. Bitcoin treasury company Strategy (MSTR) gained 4%.

Precious metals fell and the dollar weakened, reflecting risk-on sentiment.

Derivatives positioning

• Industry-wide futures open interest has risen over 8% to $112.34 billion in 24 hours in a sign of increased risk-taking in the market.
• Open interest (OI) in ether (ETH) and ADA$0.2896 futures increased by 16% and 19%, respectively, leading the growth among major cryptocurrencies. This indicates strong investor preference for smart contract tokens. OI in bitcoin rose more than 5%.
• In ether’s case, OI in coin terms climbed to 14.34 million ETH, the most since September 2025.
• There are signs of speculation in non-serious tokens such as DOGE$0.1015: Open interest tied to the cryptocurrency has jumped over 11%.
• The growth in OI in most major tokens is accompanied by positive perpetual funding rates and cumulative volume deltas. This combination indicates a rising demand for bullish leveraged plays.
• On Deribit, however, puts tied to bitcoin and ether continue to trade pricier than calls across all time frames. That’s a sign of continued demand for downside hedging despite the market bounce. Overhead call selling could be another reason for the persistent put premium.
• In XRP’s case, the $1.40 strike call and put are the most popular, cumulatively boasting a notional open interest of $14 million. That’s nearly 25% of the total XRP options open interest on the exchange.

Token talk

• The altcoin market is in a jubilant mood with the “altcoin season” index hitting 48/100, the highest in just over two months.
• The total crypto market cap excluding bitcoin reached $1.1 trillion on Monday, adding around $40 billion in the past 24 hours and $10 billion since midnight UTC, according to TradingView.
• The best-performing CoinDesk benchmark over the past 24 hours has been the Smart Contract Platform Select Capped Index (SCPXC), which is made up of ETH, SOL, ADA and SUI among layer-1 networks. The SCPXC is up by 6.3%, closely followed by the Memecoin Index (CDMEME), which has risen by 5.2%.
• AI-focused token bittensor (TAO) lost 3.7% since midnight. This is a consolidation move rather than a decline after it surged by more than 69% from March 8 to March 15.
• It appears some of those profits are being rotated into another AI project, FET$0.2052, which has benefitted from a 60% increase in daily trading volume to $195 million, with the token rising by 11% as a result.

BlockFills filed for Chapter 11 protection in Delaware, reporting up to $500M in liabilities and $100M in assets.

Crypto lending and trading company BlockFills has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection following cash flow problems that led to customers being unable to withdraw their money.

The firm, which processed tens of billions of dollars in trades last year, will now be placed under court supervision as it tries to restructure its debts and stabilize operations.

Bankruptcy Filing Comes After Withdrawals Were Frozen

On March 15, court papers showed that Reliz CI Ltd, the company that operates BlockFills, filed for Chapter 11 proceedings in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Delaware. According to the filing, the firm has assets worth between $50 million and $100 million and debts worth between $100 million and $500 million.

The company’s board approved the filing with a written resolution dated March 9, 2026. The resolution said that the directors had looked at the company’s liquidity position and strategic options before deciding that a Chapter 11 case was in its best interest as well as that of its creditors.

Furthermore, the board also agreed to bring several advisers on board to help with the bankruptcy process. These include the law firms McDermott Will & Schulte LLP and Katten Muchin Rosenman LLP, as well as Berkley Research Group, which is a financial advisory company.

In early February, BlockFills stopped deposits and withdrawals, with the move coming at a time when the market had been hit by instability after U.S. President Donald Trump imposed new tariffs against several EU nations and later threatened to place 100% tariffs on Canadian goods as well.

At the time, the company claimed the pause was a “protective measure” that would allow it to address liquidity conditions. During the freeze, it still allowed trading activity for its more than 2,000 institutional clients, including hedge funds and asset managers, who, according to the company, had generated more than $61 billion in trading volume on the platform in 2025, which was a 28% jump from the year before.

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Creditor List Shows Exposure Across Crypto and Financial Companies

The Sunday filing included a list of 30 of the largest unsecured creditors, with claims ranging from $1 million to more than $17 million. The largest belonged to 007 Capital LLC with an unsecured amount of about $17.1 million, followed by the Richard E. Ward Revocable Trust at about $9.4 million and Artha Investment Partners LLC at just under $7 million.

Other creditors are crypto companies and financial institutions like Nexo Capital and Dominion Capital. The Chicago Blackhawks hockey team also appeared in the document as a disputed trade creditor owed about $1.26 million.

Additionally, some claims, including Dominion’s $4.7 million, are listed as “unliquidated,” which means that the final amount may change as the case goes on. Dominion previously accused BlockFills of misappropriating client funds and refusing to return crypto worth millions of dollars that it had kept on the trading platform.

Bitcoin (BTC) starts the third week of March fighting for a breakout after a trip to near $75,000.

• BTC price action delivers a strong weekly close, but bulls have a lot of work left to do.

• Analysis warns that the Bitcoin bear market is still in place, along with a recent death cross.

• Macro conditions present multiple volatility catalysts as the Federal Reserve interest-rate decision nears.

• Gold’s comparative weakness in recent weeks is fueling the Bitcoin rotation debate.

• Multiple market signals are giving cause to reevaluate future price strength.

Traders stay wary as bulls face $75,000 sellers

Bitcoin bulls stepped in toward the weekly close to deliver a push to $74,425 — a level that marked new six-week highs.

Data from TradingView shows the price is still maintaining $70,000 as the TradFi trading week gets underway.

The weekly close finally gave BTC/USD a chance to reclaim key trend lines: the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA) at $68,300 and its 2021 record high at $69,400.

Now, the price is also back above its 50-day SMA for the first time since mid-January.

“Dips being bought continuously. Another continued squeeze up seems likely to me,” independent analyst Filbfilb wrote in a post on his Telegram channel about the 50-day reclaim.

Bulls’ next target, trader CrypNuevo and others say, is the $75,000 zone — home to major seller interest.

The 4h long wick is INTERESTING and ideally price drops first on the Monday futures open to give a lower entry.

If price fills that wick, it’ll probably go higher to $75k where I’ll start favoring shorts again for a potential reversal at $75k or at $79k (stronger resistance). pic.twitter.com/cN36vJ5LaV

— CrypNuevo 🔨 (@CrypNuevo) March 15, 2026

CrypNuevo warned that any changes to the macro scenario that imply the end of the Israel-Iran war could result in a “pump and dump” setup where the market initially surges higher, only to give back most or all of its gains, trapping late long positions.

Skepticism characterized many market takes on the day, with trader Killa seeing little reason to shift from a bearish perspective. 

So wait a minute…

We have 7 green consecutive daily candles,

We pump over the weekend,

We form a CME gap below,

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Directly into supply/liquidity,

At the start of a new weekly open,

And all of a sudden $BTC is bullish? Got it.

— Killa (@KillaXBT) March 16, 2026

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Trader and analyst Mark Cullen, meanwhile, demanded that the BTC price clear its swing low from April 2025 around $75,000.

“Lose 71K now and range lows are coming!” he warned X followers.

BTC price death cross implications linger

As Cointelegraph continues to report, long-term market consensus remains hawkish on BTC price action, with calls for new macro lows still present.

Bitcoin thus needs to deliver clear signs of strength before its rebound can be trusted, analysis warns.

Last week, Keith Alan, cofounder of trading resource Material Indicators, flagged a recent death cross on the BTC/USD weekly chart as a key reason to expect those new lows to play out.

“As we sit right now on this very day, we are still in a bear market, and this death cross specifically gives me more confidence in the idea that price is likely, at a macro level, to at least go back and test support before a breakout here,” he said in video analysis.

The support in question could be the local range lows near $60,000, he suggested, or even the 200-week simple moving average (SMA) at $58,900. The latter option would mark a new lower low — something that “often leads to new lower lows.”

“And we could chop here all month, but don’t forget — don’t turn a blind eye to this structure and to this 200-week moving average,” Alan stressed.

What could change the status quo, he added, is a reversal on lower time frames first, with a “decisive uptick” for the 21-day SMA. 

Macro volatility risks multiply for Bitcoin

Multiple volatility catalysts make for a tense but exciting macro week to come.

Against the backdrop of the US and Israel-Iran war, US inflation concerns are back as oil spikes and the Federal Reserve is tasked with its next decision on changes to core interest rates.

Markets remain fixed on the fate of the global oil trade, with US President Donald Trump hinting at a possible easing of the Strait of Hormuz blockade at the weekend.

In a post on Truth Social, Trump wrote that “the Countries of the World that receive Oil through the Hormuz Strait must take care of that passage, and we will help — A LOT!” 

“The U.S. will also coordinate with those Countries so that everything goes quickly, smoothly, and well,” he pledged.

WTI oil opened the week above the $100 mark, while Bitcoin rose with US stocks futures as TradFi traders returned.

“We now have the Iran war, inflation data, and a Fed meeting all in the same week,” trading resource the Kobeissi Letter summarized on X.

Those inflation prints will come thick and fast, with the latest Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) report from the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) due on Monday.

This currently shows US manufacturing back in expansion mode, and February’s print triggered a bullish response from Bitcoin price action.

“If energy prices remain elevated, manufacturers may have little choice but to pass costs on to retailers and consumers,” Kobeissi commented on the topic. 

“The manufacturing recovery is alive, but the inflation threat seems to be back.”

Elsewhere, Wednesday will see both the Fed’s rate decision and the next release of the Producer Price Index (PPI), providing more insight into US inflation trends as the Middle East debacle continues. 

As Cointelegraph reported, oil prices in particular have sparked warnings over a major inflation rebound coming next.

Gold rolls over as Bitcoin rebounds

With oil slowly retargeting recent highs above $120, Bitcoin market participants are keen to see BTC take over from gold as a destination for capital during uncertainty.

This has so far failed to materialize, with the past six months marked by successive gold breakouts while BTC/USD plumbs multiyear lows.

Despite the Iran war offering an ideal use case for gold as a safe haven, the precious metal has so far offered a muted response.

“Gold has been consolidating over the past two weeks – even though the escalating Iran conflict would typically be expected to drive prices higher,” analyst Lukas Kuemmerle wrote in his latest “Commodity Report” newsletter. 

“The metal’s muted reaction has left many market participants puzzled.”

Kuemmerle described gold’s performance during military conflicts as “mixed,” suggesting that oil was the more suitable hedge.

“Gold offers less protection against the conflict itself, but rather against its monetary and financial side effects – think inflationary pressure, currency devaluation, or fiscal dislocations,” he added.

XAU/USD dipped below the $5,000 mark to start the week, hitting its lowest levels since mid-February. Against Bitcoin, gold dropped to levels not seen since Feb. 5.

At the weekend, crypto trader Michaël van de Poppe again flagged an emerging bullish divergence in relative strength index (RSI) readings for BTC/XAU.

“The weekly RSI remains to be in the oversold territory. Historically, especially in 2015, 2018 and 2022, this has provided a signal that the markets are bottoming and that there’s a reversal happening,” he told X followers.

Van de Poppe said that the daily chart was already giving clues about what was to come, having already forecast capital rotation from gold to Bitcoin.

“I would assume we’ll see a stronger breakout upwards occur in the coming week, as this is the first time it’s breaking above the 21-Day MA since the breakdown in October,” he added, referring to the pair’s 21-day simple moving average trend line.

The most bullish charts in months?

Continuing the discussion of capital flows, onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant sees signs of a broader Bitcoin market recovery.

Related: Key Bitcoin price levels to watch as BTC nears new monthly highs

Inflows to both exchanges and the US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), it says, show increasingly bullish patterns, while stablecoin liquidity is increasing — another key driver of market expansion.

“3 different charts are showing activity we haven’t seen in weeks or even months,” contributor Amr Taha summarized in a QuickTake blog post on Monday.

Taha noted that flows from both retail and whale wallets to Binance have “dropped significantly” on rolling 30-day time frames. Whale inflows, for example, fell from $8.8 billion to $4.5 billion in the first two weeks of March.

“Such declines in exchange inflows historically reduce selling pressure, since fewer coins are available on spot markets,” he commented.

At the same time, the US spot ETFs have seen net inflows every trading day since March 9.

“Positive ETF flows reflect direct BTC buying pressure, reinforcing market support from institutional investors,” CryptoQuant continued.

On March 11, meanwhile, a $1 billion minting of the largest stablecoin USDt (USDT) on the Tron network occurred in a significant liquidity event.

“The previous mint event of the same size took place on February 6, which means the March 11 issuance represents the first major liquidity expansion in over a month,” Taha noted. 

“The creation of new USDT can signal fresh capital entering the market, potentially increasing available liquidity for trading activity.”