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MicroStrategy Explains What Happens First in a Bitcoin Collapse

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MicroStrategy Explains What Happens First in a Bitcoin Collapse

MicroStrategy (Strategy) released its Q4 2025 earnings report and, along with it, disclosed an extreme downside scenario that would begin to strain its Bitcoin treasury model.

The CEO’s remarks provided rare insight into how far the market could fall before the company’s capital structure comes under serious pressure.

MicroStrategy Finally Reveals What Would Be Its Breaking Point as Bitcoin Price Drops

During its latest earnings discussion, MicroStrategy CEO Phong Le said that a 90% decline in Bitcoin’s price to roughly $8,000 would mark the point where the firm’s Bitcoin reserves roughly equal its net debt.

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Bitcoin Price Performance. Source: TradingView

 At that level, the company would likely be unable to repay convertible debt using its BTC holdings alone. As a result, it may need to consider restructuring, issuing new equity, or raising additional debt over time.

Leadership emphasized that such a scenario is viewed as highly improbable and would unfold over several years, giving the firm time to respond if markets deteriorated significantly.

“In the extreme downside, if we were to have a 90% decline in Bitcoin price to $8,000, which is pretty hard to imagine, that is the point at which our BTC reserve equals our net debt and we’ll not be able to then pay off of our convertibles using our Bitcoin reserve and we’d either look at restructuring, issuing additional equity, issuing an additional debt. And let me remind you: this is over the next five years. Right, So I’m not really worried at this point in time, even with Bitcoin drops,” said Le.

Meanwhile, it is worth noting that Le’s remarks come only months after the Strategy executive admitted a situation that would compell the firm would sell Bitcoin. As BeInCrypto reported, Phong Le cited a Bitcoin sale trigger tied to mNAV and liquidity stress.

Speaking on What Bitcoin Did, CEO Phong Le outlined the precise trigger that would force a Bitcoin sale:

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  • First, the company’s stock must trade below 1x mNAV, meaning the market capitalization falls below the value of its Bitcoin holdings.
  • Second, MicroStrategy must be unable to raise new capital through equity or debt issuance. This would mean capital markets are closed or too expensive to access.

Therefore, the latest statement does not contradict Phong Le’s earlier position but adds another layer of risk.

Previously, a Bitcoin sale depended on stock trading below mNAV and capital markets’ closing. Now, he clarifies that in an extreme 90% crash, the immediate issue would be debt servicing, likely addressed first through restructuring or new financing—not necessarily selling Bitcoin.

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Massive Bitcoin Exposure Comes with Large Losses

Strategy remains the world’s largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, reporting 713,502 BTC as of early February 2026. The company acquired the holdings at a total cost of about $54.26 billion, according to its fourth-quarter financial results.

However, Bitcoin’s decline during the final months of 2025 significantly impacted the balance sheet. The firm reported $17.4 billion in unrealized digital-asset losses for the quarter and a net loss of $12.4 billion. This highlights the sensitivity of its financial performance to market swings.

At the same time, Strategy continued to raise substantial capital. The company said it raised $25.3 billion in 2025, making it one of the largest equity issuers in the US.

Meanwhile, they also reportedly built a $2.25 billion USD reserve designed to cover roughly two and a half years of dividend and interest obligations.

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Executives argue that these measures strengthen liquidity and provide flexibility, even during periods of market stress.

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Bitcoin Volatility Brings the Risk Into Focus

The disclosure comes amid heightened volatility in crypto markets. Bitcoin traded near $70,000 in early February before extending successive legs lower to an intraday low of $60,000 on February 6.  This shows how quickly price movements can reshape the outlook for highly leveraged treasury strategies.

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Strategy’s capital structure relies heavily on debt, preferred equity, and convertible instruments used to accumulate Bitcoin over multiple years.

While this approach has amplified gains during bull markets, it also magnifies losses during downturns, drawing increasing scrutiny from investors and analysts.

However, the company’s leadership maintains that the long-dated nature of much of its debt provides time to manage through cycles. This, they say, reduces the risk of forced liquidations in the near term.

Saylor Doubles Down on Long-Term Thesis

Elsewhere, executive chair Michael Saylor reiterated his conviction in Bitcoin despite recent losses, describing it as the “digital transformation of capital” and urging investors to “HODL.”

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Saylor and other executives argue that Bitcoin remains the hardest form of money and that the company’s long-term strategy is built around holding the asset indefinitely, rather than attempting to time market cycles.

The firm has also expanded its financial engineering efforts, including scaling its Digital Credit instruments and preferred equity offerings. According to management, these are designed to reduce volatility and diversify funding sources while continuing to accumulate Bitcoin.

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Investors Split on the Risks Ahead

Market reaction to the earnings disclosures and downside scenario has been mixed. Supporters argue that Strategy’s massive Bitcoin reserves, ability to issue equity, and multi-year debt maturities provide sufficient flexibility to navigate even severe downturns.

Critics, however, warn that a prolonged bear market could still force difficult choices. Potential risks cited by investors include shareholder dilution, pressure on the capital structure, or the possibility of selling Bitcoin if funding conditions tighten.

“The company is currently facing a whopping -$7.3 billion loss on their Bitcoin investments,” said Jacob King.

For now, Strategy appears committed to its high-conviction approach. However, by acknowledging that its Bitcoin reserves would merely match its debt, the company has made clear that even the most aggressive corporate Bitcoin strategy still has a theoretical breaking point, one defined not just by market prices but by the limits of leverage itself.

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Bitcoin ‘Bull Trap’ Forming As Bear Market Middle Stage Approaches: Analyst

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Bitcoin 'Bull Trap' Forming As Bear Market Middle Stage Approaches: Analyst

Bitcoin could experience a short-term rally that catches investors off guard before the broader downtrend resumes, according to on-chain analyst Willy Woo.

“Bull trap forming,” Woo said in an X post on Saturday, referring to a fake breakout suggesting that the market is entering a sustained uptrend. He added that it may last “out to [the] end of April.”

Woo said his outlook is based on liquidity conditions rather than price levels. “If capital comes back in force with the right type of long-term investors, then I’ll happily change my views,” Woo said.

Bitcoin is “solidly” in the middle of a bear market

From a long-range liquidity perspective, Woo said Bitcoin (BTC) is “solidly in the middle of its bear market.” “Typically, after fast downward flushes like we have had, BTC likes to go sideways and mount a rally where resistance is tested,” Woo said. 

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Bitcoin has fallen approximately 46.82% since reaching its October all-time highs of $126,000, trading at $67,012 at the time of publication, according to CoinMarketCap.

Bitcoin is up 3.74% over the past 30 days. Source: CoinMarketCap

Woo said that this level isn’t the bottom for Bitcoin and the asset may see further downside. Crypto sentiment platform Santiment shared a similar view on Saturday, pointing to whales aggressively selling while retail investors buy below $70,000.

“When retail buys while whales sell, it typically signals that the correction is not yet over,” Santiment said.

Bitcoin investor flows have been in “consistent recovery”

Woo said that despite Bitcoin failing to hold the “mid-70s” range after it soared to $74,000 on Wednesday, investor flows have been in “consistent recovery” since the middle of February.

Related: Bitcoin relief rally hits wall as spot ETFs log $228M in outflows

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Woo isn’t the only analyst who thinks Bitcoin is in a bear market. Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen recently told Magazine that 2026 is a “bear market year” for Bitcoin and unlikely to bring new all-time highs.

On-chain analytics company CryptoQuant said on Thursday that “Bitcoin is still in a bear market despite the recent rally.”

It comes after the Crypto Fear and Greed Index, one of the most widely used gauges of crypto investor sentiment, fell back to “extreme fear” levels after briefly recovering on Wednesday.

Magazine: The debate over Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is over: Benjamin Cowen

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