Crypto World
MicroStrategy Explains What Happens First in a Bitcoin Collapse
MicroStrategy (Strategy) released its Q4 2025 earnings report and, along with it, disclosed an extreme downside scenario that would begin to strain its Bitcoin treasury model.
The CEO’s remarks provided rare insight into how far the market could fall before the company’s capital structure comes under serious pressure.
MicroStrategy Finally Reveals What Would Be Its Breaking Point as Bitcoin Price Drops
During its latest earnings discussion, MicroStrategy CEO Phong Le said that a 90% decline in Bitcoin’s price to roughly $8,000 would mark the point where the firm’s Bitcoin reserves roughly equal its net debt.
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At that level, the company would likely be unable to repay convertible debt using its BTC holdings alone. As a result, it may need to consider restructuring, issuing new equity, or raising additional debt over time.
Leadership emphasized that such a scenario is viewed as highly improbable and would unfold over several years, giving the firm time to respond if markets deteriorated significantly.
“In the extreme downside, if we were to have a 90% decline in Bitcoin price to $8,000, which is pretty hard to imagine, that is the point at which our BTC reserve equals our net debt and we’ll not be able to then pay off of our convertibles using our Bitcoin reserve and we’d either look at restructuring, issuing additional equity, issuing an additional debt. And let me remind you: this is over the next five years. Right, So I’m not really worried at this point in time, even with Bitcoin drops,” said Le.
Meanwhile, it is worth noting that Le’s remarks come only months after the Strategy executive admitted a situation that would compell the firm would sell Bitcoin. As BeInCrypto reported, Phong Le cited a Bitcoin sale trigger tied to mNAV and liquidity stress.
Speaking on What Bitcoin Did, CEO Phong Le outlined the precise trigger that would force a Bitcoin sale:
- First, the company’s stock must trade below 1x mNAV, meaning the market capitalization falls below the value of its Bitcoin holdings.
- Second, MicroStrategy must be unable to raise new capital through equity or debt issuance. This would mean capital markets are closed or too expensive to access.
Therefore, the latest statement does not contradict Phong Le’s earlier position but adds another layer of risk.
Previously, a Bitcoin sale depended on stock trading below mNAV and capital markets’ closing. Now, he clarifies that in an extreme 90% crash, the immediate issue would be debt servicing, likely addressed first through restructuring or new financing—not necessarily selling Bitcoin.
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Massive Bitcoin Exposure Comes with Large Losses
Strategy remains the world’s largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, reporting 713,502 BTC as of early February 2026. The company acquired the holdings at a total cost of about $54.26 billion, according to its fourth-quarter financial results.
However, Bitcoin’s decline during the final months of 2025 significantly impacted the balance sheet. The firm reported $17.4 billion in unrealized digital-asset losses for the quarter and a net loss of $12.4 billion. This highlights the sensitivity of its financial performance to market swings.
At the same time, Strategy continued to raise substantial capital. The company said it raised $25.3 billion in 2025, making it one of the largest equity issuers in the US.
Meanwhile, they also reportedly built a $2.25 billion USD reserve designed to cover roughly two and a half years of dividend and interest obligations.
Executives argue that these measures strengthen liquidity and provide flexibility, even during periods of market stress.
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Bitcoin Volatility Brings the Risk Into Focus
The disclosure comes amid heightened volatility in crypto markets. Bitcoin traded near $70,000 in early February before extending successive legs lower to an intraday low of $60,000 on February 6. This shows how quickly price movements can reshape the outlook for highly leveraged treasury strategies.
Strategy’s capital structure relies heavily on debt, preferred equity, and convertible instruments used to accumulate Bitcoin over multiple years.
While this approach has amplified gains during bull markets, it also magnifies losses during downturns, drawing increasing scrutiny from investors and analysts.
However, the company’s leadership maintains that the long-dated nature of much of its debt provides time to manage through cycles. This, they say, reduces the risk of forced liquidations in the near term.
Saylor Doubles Down on Long-Term Thesis
Elsewhere, executive chair Michael Saylor reiterated his conviction in Bitcoin despite recent losses, describing it as the “digital transformation of capital” and urging investors to “HODL.”
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Saylor and other executives argue that Bitcoin remains the hardest form of money and that the company’s long-term strategy is built around holding the asset indefinitely, rather than attempting to time market cycles.
The firm has also expanded its financial engineering efforts, including scaling its Digital Credit instruments and preferred equity offerings. According to management, these are designed to reduce volatility and diversify funding sources while continuing to accumulate Bitcoin.
Investors Split on the Risks Ahead
Market reaction to the earnings disclosures and downside scenario has been mixed. Supporters argue that Strategy’s massive Bitcoin reserves, ability to issue equity, and multi-year debt maturities provide sufficient flexibility to navigate even severe downturns.
Critics, however, warn that a prolonged bear market could still force difficult choices. Potential risks cited by investors include shareholder dilution, pressure on the capital structure, or the possibility of selling Bitcoin if funding conditions tighten.
“The company is currently facing a whopping -$7.3 billion loss on their Bitcoin investments,” said Jacob King.
For now, Strategy appears committed to its high-conviction approach. However, by acknowledging that its Bitcoin reserves would merely match its debt, the company has made clear that even the most aggressive corporate Bitcoin strategy still has a theoretical breaking point, one defined not just by market prices but by the limits of leverage itself.
Ripple and XRPL contributors have outlined a growing set of “institutional DeFi” building blocks on the XRP Ledger that aim to make the network viable for regulated financial activity, per a Thursday blog.
XRP’s utility as a settlement and bridge asset is being highlighted as central to that infrastructure, with usecases ranging from from forex and stablecoin rails to tokenized collateral and native lending markets.
The latest roadmap emphasizes features already live — such as multi-purpose token standards (MPT), permissioned domains with compliance tooling, credential-backed access and batch transactions — alongside upcoming releases that extend XRPL into credit markets and privacy-preserving workflows.
Unlike many smart contract chains that bolt on compliance after the fact, XRPL’s approach has been to embed identity and control primitives at the protocol layer.
Permissioned domains and credentials allow markets to gate participation by verified entities, a requirement institutions often cite as a barrier to onchain integration.
On the payments and FX side, XRP’s role as an auto-bridge between assets continues to be cited as a demand driver, with stablecoin corridors and remittance flows adding to onchain volume and fee activity. Token escrows and object reserves denominated in XRP further tie network usage back to the native asset.
Looking ahead, the introduction of XLS-65/66 — the XRPL lending protocol — is slated to offer pooled and underwritten credit on ledger without entirely offloading risk logic onchain.
Single asset vaults, fixed-term lending and optional permissioning tools are designed to feel familiar to institutional risk managers while operating in an onchain settlement context.
Privacy features like confidential transfers for MPTs, arriving in the first quarter, aim to satisfy enterprise and regulatory expectations around transaction-level anonymity and controlled disclosure.
Critics have long pointed to XRPL’s lack of EVM-style programmability as a hindrance. The new EVM sidechain — bridged via the Axelar network — is meant to address this by letting Solidity developers tap into XRPL liquidity and identity features while accessing familiar tooling.
XRP prices are down 22% over the past seven days, in line with a broader market drop.
The global non-fungible token (NFT) sector fell below $1.5 billion in total market capitalization, returning to levels last seen before the sector’s rapid expansion in 2021.
The retracement unfolded alongside a broader crypto market downturn over the past two weeks, CoinGecko data shows. On Jan. 23, total crypto market capitalization stood at about $3.1 trillion, before falling to $2.2 trillion on Friday.
Major assets like Bitcoin (BTC) slid from around $89,000 to about $65,000, while Ether (ETH) fell from $3,000 to near $1,800 throughout the same time frame. Bitcoin and Ethereum are the top two networks for NFTs in terms of 30-day trading volume, according NFT data aggregator CryptoSlam.
The NFT market cap drop follows several high-profile closures and exits, highlighting the sector’s continued contraction.
Rising supply collides with falling demand
The market reset has been compounded by a growing imbalance between NFT supply and buyer demand.
As reported by Cointelegraph on Dec. 31, total NFT supply continued to expand even as sales and prices declined, pushing the sector into a high-volume, low-price structure.
CryptoSlam data showed that the number of NFTs in circulation rose to nearly 1.3 billion in 2025, up by 25% compared to 2024. Total NFT sales fell 37% year-over-year to $5.6 billion, while average sale prices slipped below $100.
The divergence suggests that while minting became cheaper and barriers to issuance fell, buyer participation and spending failed to keep up.
Related: US prosecutors drop OpenSea NFT fraud case after appeals court reversal
Corporate exits and platform closures add pressure
The drop follows a series of high-profile retreats that mirror the market’s pullback. On Jan. 7, footwear giant Nike quietly offloaded RTFKT, the digital collectibles studio it acquired at the height of the NFT boom.
The reported sale followed the company’s decision to shut down operations amid an investor lawsuit.
In addition, marketplace shutdowns have accelerated. Nifty Gateway, one of the earliest NFT platforms, said it will close on Feb. 23 and has entered withdrawal-only mode. The Gemini-owned platform cited a prolonged market downturn as it winds down.
On Jan. 28, social NFT platform Rodeo announced it would cease operations after failing to scale sustainably. Rodeo said it would transition to read-only mode before shutting down entirely in March.
Magazine: Digital art will ‘age like fine wine’: Inside Flamingo DAO’s 9-figure NFT collection
Crypto World
Gemini shutters operations across Europe and Australia to focus on the U.S. and prediction markets
Gemini Space Station Inc. (GEMI) is shutting down operations in the U.K., the European Union (EU) and Australia.
The crypto exchange is also reducing its staff by 25%, according to a blog post on Thursday that suggests it is focusing resources into prediction markets.
“Effective 6 April 2026, Gemini will be ceasing operations in the United Kingdom,” the crypto trading platform said in an email sent to customers seen by CoinDesk which does not mention Australia or Europe. “Starting 5 March 2026, all customer accounts in these regions will be placed in withdrawal mode.”
New York-based Gemini stated that it had partnered with brokerage platform eToro to assist customers with their offboarding process. It instructed customers to sign up with eToro so they could “assist in transferring your assets.” Full closures of all accounts will follow in April, the New York-based company said. New account creation and incentive programs will also be disabled.
Crypto equities have lagged broader markets as risk sentiment shifted in early 2026. While major stock indices have posted gains, leading digital-asset–linked equities have slid, reflecting waning investor appetite and tightening liquidity. This underperformance underscores a retrenchment of speculative capital from crypto-linked stocks.
Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss, CEO and President of Gemini, cited difficulties gaining traction in the U.K., Europe and Australian markets as their reason for exiting them, while saying the U.S. has been great to them.
“The reality is that America has the world’s greatest capital markets and America has always been where it’s at for Gemini,” they said. “So it’s time for Gemini to focus and double down on America.”
Tyler and Cameron also shared their view that prediction markets would outgrow capital markets, saying they have plans to venture into this sector.
“Our thesis is that prediction markets will be as big or bigger than today’s capital markets,” they said. “Our investment in securing a license to launch our own prediction marketplace positions us as an early mover on this new and exciting frontier.”
They added that more than 10,000 users have traded over $24 million since the debut of Gemini Predictions in mid-December.
Gemini, which went public in September, has seen its shares fall about 23% since the start of 2025 amid a broader downturn in crypto prices. The stock was down 2.8% on Thursday.
Read more: SEC dismisses lawsuit against billionaire Winklevoss twins-backed Gemini over Earn product
IREN (IREN) earnings showed weaker than expected headline results, with the company missing consensus on both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) as it accelerates its transition from bitcoin mining to AI Cloud.
Financially, Q2 revenue declined to $184.7 million, missing expectations and down from $240.3 million in Q1, while the company reported a net loss of $155.4 million, also below consensus.
IREN secured $3.6 billion of GPU financing for its Microsoft contract which together with a $1.9 billion customer prepayment is expected to cover around 95% of GPU related capex.
Tech giant Amazon (AMZ) also missed expectations on EPS but beat on revenue, according to investing.com. Investor focus shifted to management’s plan to spend around $200 billion on capex in 2026, primarily AI related. Amazon shares are down 10%.
Pre-market update
Bitcoin rebounded from around $60,000 to $66,000, driving a broad rally across crypto exposed equities. Strategy (MSTR), the largest publicly traded holder of bitcoin, rose 7% in pre-market trading, mirroring a 7% gain for Galaxy (GLXY) and MARA Holdings (MARA) while Coinbase (COIN) increased by 6%.
Thursday’s selloff was one of the sharpest and most devastating in crypto market history: More than $2.6 billion was liquidated as bitcoin tumbled to $60,000 to mark its lowest point since October 2024.
The drawdown led to bitcoin being the third most “oversold” in its history, according to the relative strength index (RSI), a momentum oscillator that tracks market conditions. Oversold conditions of this magnitude historically precede a major bounce.
The situation grew a bit brighter as Asia woke up, with bitcoin bouncing from $60,000 to above $65,000 while ether came off a low of $1,750 to trade back at $1,920.
Even so, the broader crypto market remains in a bear market. Privacy coin zcash has lost 34% of its value over the past week, while optimism , solana and ether are all dealing with losses of around 30%.
Traditional markets have also struggled in recent days. The Nasdaq 100 index dropped 6% since Jan. 28, and precious metals gold and silver are down by 12% and 38%, respectively, over the same period.
Derivatives positioning
- The crypto futures market is worth less than $100 billion for the first time since March 2025, as traders continue to reduce risk as prices slide and liquidations cause wealth destruction.
- Over $2.6 billion in leveraged futures bets have been liquidated, or forced closed, by exchanges due to margin shortage in 24 hours. Out of that, over $2.10 billion were long bets. This shows the degree of bullish leverage that was deployed around the pivotal $70,000 support, which was breached Thursday.
- Open interest (OI) has declined in futures tied to all major tokens, including recent outperformer HYPE.
- Annualized perpetual funding rates for major tokens such as BTC, SOL, XRP and DOGE have flipped negative as price crashes triggered demand for bearish bets. The negative rates could see arbitrageurs resort to reverse cash and carry bets.
- Bitcoin’s annualized 30-day implied volatility surged to nearly 100% late Thursday as traders scrambled to buy puts, with some snapping up these bearish bets at strike prices as low as $20,000. Since then, volatility has pulled back to under 70%. A similar pattern is seen in ether’s implied volatility.
- Still, bitcoin and ether short-term put options continue to trade at a volatility premium of 20 or more points to calls, a sign of lingering downside worries. Puts remain pricier at the long end as well.
- Options tied to BlackRock’s IBIT ETF saw record activity Thursday, with traders rushing to buy puts. The one-year skew rose to over 25 points, reflecting a massive premium for put options, indicating peak fear.
Token talk
- The altcoin sector presented a couple of unlikely winners despite the broader market decline on Thursday. Privacy-focused decred rose by 31% in 24 hours, seemingly unperturbed by the carnage as it added to a rally that has lifted it from $17.4 to $24.2.
- HyperLiquid’s HYPE token continues to perform well, relatively speaking, as it remains up 11% this week despite falling 4% in the past 24 hours.
- XRP was one of the most volatile altcoins, plunging by more than 30% before bouncing by 21%. Trading volume topped $14 billion, a 143% rise over 24 hours.
- The CoinDesk 20 (CD20) and CoinDesk 80 (CD80) both fell by around 6% in the past 24 hours, but the concerning corner of the market was DeFi, with the DeFi Select Index (DFX) underperforming the wider market with a decline of more than 10%.
- CoinMarketCap’s “altcoin season” indicator is now at 24/100, down from Wednesday’s high of 32/100, suggesting investors are seeking safer, less volatile assets like bitcoin or stablecoins.
For years, metaverse games were treated as experimental digital spaces, immersive, creative, but largely positioned as merely entertainment projects. However, that perception is changing rapidly.
Enterprises and forward-looking studios are no longer investing in metaverse blockchain games just to create virtual worlds. The focus is on building persistent digital economies where users socialize, trade, own assets, and generate value.
The shift is subtle but powerful. Metaverse game development is evolving from experiences into economic ecosystems. Businesses that understand this transition are positioning themselves at the forefront of the next digital economy wave. It is because the next generation of digital platforms will not simply be social networks or apps; they will be immersive environments where commerce, community, and ownership converge.
From Virtual Spaces to Economic Systems
A traditional virtual world offers exploration and interaction. On the other hand, a metaverse blockchain game introduces something far more powerful that is economic permanence. When assets exist on-chain & transactions are verifiable, the environment becomes more than just a playground, it becomes a marketplace and a functioning economy.
These ecosystems are built on several pillars:
- Digital Ownership
True digital ownership changes user psychology. When players genuinely own assets like characters, land, skins, or tools, they tend to treat them as investments rather than consumables. For enterprises, this increases willingness to spend and builds long-term emotional attachment. - Asset Scarcity
Scarcity drives perceived value. Limited or time-bound assets create collectability and stimulate secondary markets. When managed strategically, scarcity supports demand cycles and stabilizes ecosystem value. - Tokenized Economies
Tokens are not just rewards, they are economic instruments. At the time when structured properly, they guide participation, governance, and ecosystem sustainability. Enterprises can use tokenomics to align user incentives with platform growth. - Interoperable Assets
Assets usable across environments hold higher value. Interoperability reduces user risk and encourages deeper investment. It also enables cross-platform partnerships and larger ecosystem reach. - Transparent Transactions
Blockchain-backed transparency builds trust. Every trade and transfer is verifiable, thereby reducing disputes & reinforcing fairness both of which are critical for long-term economic health.
Players stop being mere participants. They become stakeholders. For enterprises, this transforms games into economic platforms.
Why Businesses Are Paying Attention
Decision-makers increasingly view metaverse blockchain games as strategic digital infrastructure rather than creative experiments.
- Brand Engagement at Depth
Unlike short campaigns, immersive worlds host users for hours. This builds emotional connection and stronger brand recall. - Digital Commerce Opportunities
Virtual goods, land, access passes, and collectibles open recurring revenue streams. These are not one-off purchases but parts of ongoing economies. - Loyalty & Membership Ecosystems
Ownership-based loyalty outperforms point systems. NFT or token memberships carry tradable value and exclusivity, driving retention. - Community-Led Growth
Users who own assets become advocates. When ecosystem success benefits participants, organic growth follows. - First-Mover Positioning
Early adopters gain insights, data, and ecosystem maturity before competitors enter. This builds defensible advantages.
It is exactly the reason why metaverse initiatives are now discussed in boardrooms, not just marketing teams.
Want to Build a Full-Scale Digital Gaming Economy?
The Role of Blockchain in Making Economies Work
Without blockchain, virtual economies rely on centralized control, which weakens trust and portability. The introduction of blockchain brings in:
- Verifiable Ownership
Ownership recorded on-chain gives users real control, not platform-dependent licenses. - Trustless Transactions
Peer-to-peer transactions reduce reliance on intermediaries, lowering costs and friction. - Smart Contract Automation
Rules execute automatically. Royalties, revenue splits, and governance can function without manual oversight. - Transparency
Open ledgers help reduce fraud and simplify the audit process. - Interoperability Potential
Shared standards allow assets to travel across platforms, increasing lifespan and utility.
When users trust the system, they invest more time and capital. That trust fuels sustainable economies.
Where Many Projects Go Wrong
Not every metaverse blockchain game succeeds. A number of them fail due to economic misdesign rather than technical flaws.
- Speculation-Driven Models
Short-term hype collapses without utility. - Inflationary Reward Systems
Over-issuance devalues tokens and drives users away. - Weak Governance
Without rules, economies tend to destabilize. - Poor Onboarding
Complex wallet flows deter mainstream users. - Infrastructure Gaps
Systems must be built to scale over time. Performance failures damage credibility.
What Sustainable Metaverse Economies Require
Persistent economies demand disciplined planning.
- Economic Modeling
Balanced supply-demand and token sinks maintain value. - Scalable Infrastructure
Cloud and blockchain must work together for real-time experiences. - Security Frameworks
Audited contracts and secure wallets protect ecosystems. - Governance Systems
Clear rules build confidence. - Live Economy Management
Economies need monitoring and tuning. - Content Pipelines
Fresh content sustains demand and engagement.
The Strategic Value for Businesses
Enterprises that invest thoughtfully gain:
- Recurring monetization channels
- High-value digital communities
- Long-term retention
- Behavioral data insights
- Brand differentiation
- Platform-level control over engagement
Instead of chasing users, they build environments users return to.
The Competitive Reality
The metaverse space is no longer empty. Major brands, gaming studios, and tech firms are actively experimenting and investing. As more players enter, the cost of late adoption rises.
Businesses that wait will have to face:
- Higher user acquisition costs
- Saturated virtual spaces
- Reduced novelty advantage
- Fewer partnership opportunities
Early movers, however, shape standards and user expectations. They build ecosystems before markets mature. This is not about rushing blindly; it’s about strategic timing. Businesses that plan now can enter with clarity rather than urgency later.
Why Development Expertise Matters
Metaverse blockchain games sit at the intersection of:
- Game design
- Blockchain engineering
- Economic architecture
- Security infrastructure
- Community mechanics
Poor execution doesn’t just create bugs; it destabilizes economies. A capable game development company understands how these layers interact to build sustainable ecosystems.
Final Thoughts
Metaverse blockchain games are no longer novelty projects. They are evolving into persistent digital economies where ownership, engagement, and value intersect. Enterprises recognizing this shift are not building games; they are building digital nations.
Antier, as a reliable metaverse game development partner, works with enterprises & studios to develop blockchain games designed for scalability, sustainability, and long-term economic participation. It is because the future of digital economies won’t just be visited, they’ll be lived in.
Frequently Asked Questions
01. What is the main shift in the perception of metaverse games?
The perception is shifting from viewing metaverse games as mere entertainment projects to recognizing them as platforms for building persistent digital economies where users can socialize, trade, own assets, and generate value.
02. How does digital ownership impact user behavior in metaverse games?
True digital ownership changes user psychology, leading players to treat their assets as investments rather than consumables, which increases their willingness to spend and fosters long-term emotional attachment.
03. What are the key pillars that support metaverse economic ecosystems?
The key pillars include digital ownership, asset scarcity, tokenized economies, interoperable assets, and transparent transactions, all of which contribute to a functioning economy within the metaverse.
TLDR
- Novo Nordisk shares fell 7% Thursday when Hims & Hers introduced a $49 compounded Wegovy pill, compared to Novo’s $149 branded version
- The Danish pharmaceutical company plans legal action, labeling the product “illegal mass compounding” that threatens patient safety
- Eli Lilly stock also declined 7% as investors worried about increased market competition for weight loss medications
- Hims & Hers argues its compounded version is legal as a “personalized” treatment with different formulation, despite semaglutide patents running through 2032
- Novo’s stock has crashed 50% in 2025 and dropped another 15% in 2026 following guidance predicting sales declines between 5% and 13%
Novo Nordisk experienced a 7% stock decline Thursday following Hims & Hers’ announcement of a $49 compounded Wegovy weight loss pill. The Danish drugmaker swiftly responded with plans for legal action.
The telehealth platform priced its alternative at $49 for the initial month and $99 monthly thereafter with a five-month plan. This represents a substantial discount from Novo’s $149 branded pill price.
Eli Lilly shares tumbled 7% alongside Novo on competitive concerns. Hims stock briefly rallied before retreating after legal threats emerged.
Novo condemned the launch as “illegal mass compounding that poses a risk to patient safety.” The company vowed to pursue legal and regulatory measures to protect its patents and the drug approval process.
“This is another example of Hims & Hers’ historic behaviour of duping the American public with knock-off GLP-1 products,” the company stated. The FDA previously cautioned Hims regarding deceptive GLP-1 product advertising.
Compounding Controversy
Semaglutide maintains U.S. patent protection through 2032. Hims contends its version qualifies as legal personalized compounding.
The company states its compounded product employs a different formulation and delivery mechanism than FDA-approved oral semaglutide. Hims previously sold compounded injectable semaglutide and now offers pills.
Novo produces Wegovy pills using specialized SNAC technology to facilitate oral absorption. The effectiveness of Hims’ alternative formulation remains uncertain.
The two companies briefly collaborated in 2025 on discounted weight loss shots. Novo severed the partnership within two months, accusing Hims of “deceptive” marketing.
Novo Faces Headwinds
The dispute intensifies pressure on Novo Nordisk during a challenging stretch. Shares plummeted nearly 50% throughout 2025, marking the company’s worst annual performance.
The stock has dropped an additional 15% in 2026 year-to-date. Investors question Novo’s capacity to maintain revenue growth against strengthening competition.
Novo forecasted last week that 2026 sales and profits would fall 5% to 13%. The company cited U.S. pricing challenges and patent expiration in markets including Canada and China.
CEO Mike Doustdar noted 170,000 patients started taking Wegovy pills since the January rollout. He framed the pessimistic outlook as temporary pain for future benefit.
“We are creating affordability for the patients, millions of patients that are right now in need of GLP-1 products, but simply could not afford it,” Doustdar explained.
Market Dynamics Shift
Eli Lilly plans to introduce its weight loss pill, orforglipron, in the first half of 2026 subject to FDA clearance. The company anticipates 25% sales growth this year, contrasting with Novo’s negative projection.
Leerink analyst Michael Cherny noted Hims should explore similar opportunities for upcoming weight loss medications as the market expands.
Eli Lilly did not provide comment on the Hims development. Novo launched its Wegovy pill in the United States during early January 2026.
ARK Invest sold $17.4 million worth of Coinbase (COIN) stock and bought a similar amount in Bullish (BLSH) stock on Thursday as crypto equities were routed.
Cathie Wood’s investment management company sold 119,236 COIN shares, worth $17.4 million as of Thursday’s close. COIN lost 13.3% on the day to close at $146.12 amid ongoing tanking of the crypto market which has seen bitcoin fall as low as $60,000, its lowest point since November 2024.
ARK also bought 716,030 shares in crypto exchange Bullish, according to an emailed disclosure. The shares are worth $17.8 million, based on BLSH’s closing price of $24.90, nearly 8.5% lower on the day. Bullish is also the parent company of CoinDesk.
It is common to see ARK Invest make sizeable purchases of crypto-adjacent companies when their prices slide due to broader downturns in the cryptocurrency market. The Florida-based company attempts to capitalize on the chance to capture greater value from equities and rebalance the holdings of its funds to reflect the different prices.
However, it is somewhat rarer to see ARK use this as a window to offload shares in a major crypto holding such as Coinbase.
By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
Friday’s crypto markets are a sea of green, bouncing from yesterday’s brutal drubbing in a classic oversold rebound. But real risks linger, threatening any lasting recovery.
Bitcoin has climbed back to $65,000 after flirting with $60,000, with BlackRock ETF action hinting at capitulation, that is, long-term holders dumping at a loss, often the bear market’s final gasp. The broader market has perked up, too, with XRP, SOL, ETH and other tokens regaining some poise, while the CoinDesk 20 Index added nearly 9% since midnight UTC.
Still, put options on bitcoin remain in demand, signaling persistent downside fear. It makes sense for a couple of key reasons: First, macro risks have eased, but aren’t gone. President Donald Trump signed a funding bill Tuesday to end the government shutdown, but the Department of Homeland Security cash runs dry in eight days, which means there could be another circus by Feb. 14.
Meanwhile, oil prices are buoyant on both sides of the Atlantic on concerns the Iran-U.S. tensions will escalate. A spike there could add to global inflation, triggering a flight to safety and hammering risk assets like crypto.
Most critically, the recent crash has pushed many holders and digital-asset treasuries underwater. Many of those may capitulate and become marginal sellers in the market, potentially capping rallies. Plus, confidence tends to rebuild only slowly after a crash, which is why snapback recoveries always crawl.
These things taken together indicate that the market may not be out of the woods yet. Stay alert!
Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today
What to Watch
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.
- Crypto
- Macro
- Feb. 6, 8:30 a.m.: Canada unemployment rate for January (Prev. 6.8%)
- Feb. 6, 10 a.m.: Canada Ivey PMI index for January (Prev. 51.9)
- Feb. 6, 10 a.m.: U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment preliminary for February (Prev. 56.4); Michigan inflation expectations (Prev. 4%)
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
Token Events
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.
- Governance votes & calls
- Feb. 6: Chainlink to host an X Spaces session on “Building with the Chainlink Runtime Environment.”
- Unlocks
- Token Launches
- Feb. 6: MOVA (MOVA) to be listed on LBank, BingX, KuCoin, MEXC and others.
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.
Market Movements
- BTC is up 4.55% from 4 p.m. ET Thursday at $66,022.00 (24hrs: -6.74%)
- ETH is up 4.14% at $1,924.90 (24hrs: -7.3%)
- CoinDesk 20 is up 4.75% at 1,905.03 (24hrs: -7.49%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 39 bps at 3.48%
- BTC funding rate is at -0.0142% (-15.5862% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is unchanged at 97.81
- Gold futures are down 0.19% at $4,880.30
- Silver futures are down 4.39% at $73.35
- Nikkei 225 closed up 0.81% at 54,253.68
- Hang Seng closed down 1.21% at 26,559.95
- FTSE is up 0.01% at 10,309.76
- Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.27% at 5,941.80
- DJIA closed on Thursday down 1.20% at 48,908.72
- S&P 500 closed down 1.23% at 6,798.40
- Nasdaq Composite closed down 1.59% at 22,540.59
- S&P/TSX Composite closed down 1.77% at 31,994.60
- S&P 40 Latin America closed down 1.01% at 3,616.07
- U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is down 1.8 bps at 4.192%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.3% at 6,841.00
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.36% at 24,740.50
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are up 0.16% at 49,075.00
Bitcoin Stats
- BTC Dominance: 58.77% (+0.47%)
- Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.02917 (0.43%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 913 EH/s
- Hashprice (spot): $29.76
- Total fees: 5.59 BTC / $377,330
- CME Futures Open Interest: 115,230 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 13.5 oz.
- BTC vs gold market cap: 4.4%
Technical Analysis
- The chart shows bitcoin’s weekly price swings in candlestick format since 2019.
- Prices are rapidly approaching their average over 200 weeks, represented by the red line.
- BTC has consistently put in bear-market bottoms around this average, suggesting the current pullback could be in its final stages.
Crypto Equities
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Thursday at $146.12 (-13.34%), +5.97% at $154.84 in pre-market
- Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $50.23 (-8.76%), +5.40% at $52.94
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $16.84 (-16.47%), +6.35% at $17.91
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $24.90 (-8.46%), +3.98% at $25.89
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $6.73 (-18.72%), +6.39% at $7.16
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $12.06 (-14.71%), +5.14% at $12.68
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $14.81 (-8.27%), +1.99% at $15.11
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $8.27 (-19.13%), -3.33% at $7.99
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $35.23 (-12.56%), +2.24% at $36.02
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $9.42 (-11.96%), -1.27% at $9.30
Crypto Treasury Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $106.99 (-17.12%), +6.71% at $114.17
- Strive (ASST): closed at $9.86 (-16.75%)
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $6.07 (-14.27%), +4.12% at $6.32
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $1.09 (-19.85%), +7.34% at $1.17
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $0.95 (-10.27%)
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs
- Daily net flows: -$434.1 million
- Cumulative net flows: $54.3 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.27 million
Spot ETH ETFs
- Daily net flows: -$80.8 million
- Cumulative net flows: $11.86 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~5.87 million
Source: Farside Investors
While You Were Sleeping
Bitcoin surges back above $65,000 after $700 million wipeout in Asia whipsaw (Coindesk): Bitcoin rebounded above $65,000 after its worst one-day drop since November 2022. About $700 million in leveraged crypto positions were liquidated in a few hours,
Stocks reel as AI fears dominate market action (Reuters): Global markets retreated as a stock rout on Wall Street spread worldwide, with volatility gripping precious metals and cryptocurrencies while AI fears weighed on equities.
Weak earnings drag IREN, Amazon; bitcoin stocks rebound in pre-market (CoinDesk): IREN earnings were weaker than expected, while Amazon missed EPS estimates and beat on revenue.
Big tech to spend $650 billion this year as AI race intensifies (Bloomberg): The high spending projections raise concerns about energy supplies, prices, and the potential distortion of economic data, raising questions about whether the companies can afford the costs.
Hedera has remained under selling pressure after a steady decline brought HBAR back to retest a long-standing technical pattern. The token has been trading within this structure for several months, limiting upside attempts.
While multiple indicators now point toward a bullish setup, price action has yet to confirm the shift, keeping sentiment cautious.
HBAR Has An Underlying Bullish Trigger
HBAR’s Money Flow Index is showing early signs of strength despite continued price weakness. On the two-day chart, the indicator is forming a bullish divergence with the price. While HBAR has printed a lower low, the MFI has held higher lows, indicating rising buying pressure beneath the surface.
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This divergence suggests that selling momentum is gradually fading. As sellers lose control, buyers begin to step in without immediately pushing prices higher. Such conditions often precede trend reversals, especially when supported by compression patterns and improving momentum indicators across higher timeframes.
Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.
Derivatives data highlights growing risk for bearish traders. The liquidation map shows that a breakout in HBAR price would place significant pressure on short positions. If the price reaches $0.1013, approximately $6.2 million in short liquidations could be triggered, forcing rapid position closures.
Given the pattern HBAR is currently trading within, a breakout could occur quickly once resistance is breached. Forced liquidations typically accelerate price movement, amplifying upside momentum. As a result, short traders face heightened exposure if HBAR breaks above its current range.
HBAR Price Breakout Is Possible
HBAR price is trading near $0.0826 at the time of writing, holding above the $0.0786 support level. The altcoin has been moving within a descending channel for nearly four months. This structure reflects prolonged consolidation while volatility continues to compress.
A breakout from this pattern appears increasingly likely as selling pressure dissipates on a macro scale. Confirmation would require HBAR to breach the channel’s upper trendline and flip $0.1042 into support. Such a move would trigger short liquidations and push the price toward $0.129, the pattern’s projected 32% upside target.
However, downside risk remains if broader market conditions fail to improve. A loss of the $0.0786 support would weaken the structure. Under that scenario, HBAR could slide toward $0.0622. A move to that level would invalidate the bullish thesis entirely.
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